Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

gandalf

Military action is not the answer to this crisis. Sanctions are. Isolate Russia and cripple her financially. The Chinese are buying her oil but until there is a delivery mechanism to deliver Gas (a pipeline) they won't be buying gas off them and that is years away and Gazprom cannot afford to build it. Based on the article I posted earlier from The Moscow Times, Gazprom cannot afford to lose the revenue for even a couple of weeks. I didn't realise it but they have half a million employees, are heavily indebted, don't have access to finances and will probably have even less or no access to credit after tomorrow and they are running the company from their cashflow (there is nothing squirrelled away for a rainy day).

Lets see how much Putin wants Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Lets see how much of a sacrifice the Oligarchs will make to support their man.

Manach

On the nuclear shield side of things, the Russian bases in Kalingrad are fairly centrally based so any short range missles in support of any army movement in central Europe would unlikely to be stopped.
On the economic side, it was not that long ago that the prospect of Euro meltdown was a real danger. From history, economic wars from the 30s tended to be a zero sum game. As well, agendas such as that of the Green movement would need to be overcome in any move to diversity energy supplies given many of their objections to Nuclear power and the planned shutdown of Germany's reactors.

WakeUp

comongethappy wrote: »

I'll check back.

In terms of Nukes, the European NATO members have been apathetic about integrating BMD systems with America, most have none of any kind.

They have been happy to have a few Arleigh Burkes dotted around the Mediterranean...

- Accelerate the land base Aegis systems which have been long fingered for Romania/Bulgaria for years now (currently only available on naval platforms).

- Spend some money on getting Aegis & the UK Sampson radar to speak to each other.... Currently I don't think they do.

Despite what the critics say, BMD can & does work.
In tests, its only Russia's largest ICBMs can penetrate it, and even then not 100% of the time.

Its why Putin went into hysterics over mere patriot batteries being deployed in Poland/Czech republic.... They know much of their arsenal may prove innefective.

Patriot deployments will be the least of his worries once land-deployed Aegis goes fully live.

The US is also getting close to being able to completing their naval based missile system to track & destroy satellites, unmatched in the world but years away.... That was stalled by budget cuts.
If/when in the next decades(s) the US achieves satellite kill capability its game over for any enemy ICBM or satellite guided BM.

Id prefer to see a complete de- escalation of all things military and more talking and dialogue as opposed to chest thumping and moving of assets into place. but its hard to disagree with a lot of what you are saying here. its quite detailed actually and I have heard and read about some of the capabilities of the US missile shields among other things and what they can do. and thats without even knowing about whatever weapons they have buried in dark projects that we just dont know about. maybe that works both ways. as if the Americans have them you would have to think the Russians would have some too. it may well be the case its just Russia largest missiles that can penetrate their defences but dont forget the subs. they could roll up close and that would negate a lot of the American defences certainly their mid to long range ones. you musnt forget subs. I think Nato, even if I disagree with it will start spending more money some of the members anyway youre probably right about that.

gandalf

It already appears that the sanctions are having an effect.

State-owned oil giant Rosneft could fire as many as 1,000 employees, or 25 percent of the people working at the company, in an ongoing economy drive, a news report said Thursday.

The criteria for the layoffs are currently being worked out and firings could begin as soon as October, business daily Kommersant reported, citing unidentified sources at Rosneft.

The world's largest publicly traded oil company, Rosneft has been affected by recent Western sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis, with chief executive Igor Sechin's assets frozen by the United States and potential deals reportedly being shelved amid tensions.

There are fears that sanctions will hit Rosneft's ability to maintain production levels in the long term and implement long-term development plans, including drilling in the Arctic.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/rosneft-to-shed-a-quarter-of-staff-report-says/506426.html

People losing their jobs is going to start putting real pressure on the powers that be in Moscow.

Now imagine if Gazprom had to lay off 25% of their employees?

comongethappy

WakeUp wrote: »

Id prefer to see a complete de- escalation of all things military and more talking and dialogue as opposed to chest thumping and moving of assets into place. but its hard to disagree with a lot of what you are saying here. its quite detailed actually and I have heard and read about some of the capabilities of the US missile shields among other things and what they can do. and thats without even knowing about whatever weapons they have buried in dark projects that we just dont know about. maybe that works both ways. as if the Americans have them you would have to think the Russians would have some too. it may well be the case its just Russia largest missiles that can penetrate their defences but dont forget the subs. they could roll up close and that would negate a lot of the American defences certainly their mid to long range ones. you musnt forget subs. I think Nato, even if I disagree with it will start spending more money some of the members anyway youre probably right about that.

In the old days the capability of the USSR may have been slightly overplayed to save face, while the US downplayed to cover the vast sums spent.

Speed is Russia's best weapon alright.
I think they have about 400-ish mobile launchers that only when they are fuelling the ICBM are they detectable, but within 2hrs the bird is away before it can be hit.

Russia has still great sub's, they are key because of their stealth.
Russia still has a hand full of missile sub's but I think due to affordability issues only have 1-2 deployed.

Naval anti-sub capabilities have improved enormously, but not near enough to negate submarines as a key weapon for Russia.

As for negating BMD, I think I read, Russia is trying to develop manouverabilty in its ICBMs.... Which is tricky.
They are also trying to integrate systems into an ICBM that will jam the guidance system of a missile sent to intercept.

The latter is probably a better bet.
(They already have a much smaller scale system doing that job on their updated t-90 tanks, to foil guided anti-armour missiles.
Like so: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shtora)

steveblack572

comongethappy wrote: »

I'll check back.

In terms of Nukes, the European NATO members have been apathetic about integrating BMD systems with America, most have none of any kind.

They have been happy to have a few Arleigh Burkes dotted around the Mediterranean...

- Accelerate the land base Aegis systems which have been long fingered for Romania/Bulgaria for years now (currently only available on naval platforms).

- Spend some money on getting Aegis & the UK Sampson radar to speak to each other.... Currently I don't think they do.

Despite what the critics say, BMD can & does work.
In tests, its only Russia's largest ICBMs can penetrate it, and even then not 100% of the time.

Its why Putin went into hysterics over mere patriot batteries being deployed in Poland/Czech republic.... They know much of their arsenal may prove innefective.

Patriot deployments will be the least of his worries once land-deployed Aegis goes fully live.

The US is also getting somewhat close to completing their naval based missile system to track & destroy satellites, unmatched in the world but years away.... That was stalled by budget cuts.
If/when in the next decades(s) the US achieves satellite kill capability its game over for any enemy ICBM or satellite guided BM.

However.... As they say "if Ifs & buts were candy nuts"....

Nato is fat & weak (relative to its potential).
Its leaders can't see past their next election cycle so are blind to big pictures, Putin isn't distracted by that anymore.

Can you back any of this up with proof? a few links.
Or is it just what you think? based on nothing solid

steveblack572

gandalf wrote: »

Military action is not the answer to this crisis. Sanctions are. Isolate Russia and cripple her financially. The Chinese are buying her oil but until there is a delivery mechanism to deliver Gas (a pipeline) they won't be buying gas off them and that is years away and Gazprom cannot afford to build it. Based on the article I posted earlier from The Moscow Times, Gazprom cannot afford to lose the revenue for even a couple of weeks. I didn't realise it but they have half a million employees, are heavily indebted, don't have access to finances and will probably have even less or no access to credit after tomorrow and they are running the company from their cashflow (there is nothing squirrelled away for a rainy day).

Lets see how much Putin wants Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Lets see how much of a sacrifice the Oligarchs will make to support their man.

Have anything better that the moscow times as a source, its a free news paper like the Metro Herald. Is that the quality of your many sources?

steveblack572

comongethappy wrote: »

In the old days the capability of the USSR may have been slightly overplayed to save face, while the US downplayed to cover the vast sums spent.

Speed is Russia's best weapon alright.
I think they have about 400-ish mobile launchers that only when they are fuelling the ICBM are they detectable, but within 2hrs the bird is away before it can be hit.

Russia has still great sub's, they are key because of their stealth.
Russia still has a hand full of missile sub's but I think due to affordability issues only have 1-2 deployed.

Naval anti-sub capabilities have improved enormously, but not near enough to negate submarines as a key weapon for Russia.

As for negating BMD, I think I read, Russia is trying to develop manouverabilty in its ICBMs.... Which is tricky.
They are also trying to integrate systems into an ICBM that will jam the guidance system of a missile sent to intercept.

The latter is probably a better bet.

Is this just your opinion or can you back it up with links?

Conas

gandalf wrote: »

Military action is not the answer to this crisis. Sanctions are. Isolate Russia and cripple her financially. The Chinese are buying her oil but until there is a delivery mechanism to deliver Gas (a pipeline) they won't be buying gas off them and that is years away and Gazprom cannot afford to build it. Based on the article I posted earlier from The Moscow Times, Gazprom cannot afford to lose the revenue for even a couple of weeks. I didn't realise it but they have half a million employees, are heavily indebted, don't have access to finances and will probably have even less or no access to credit after tomorrow and they are running the company from their cashflow (there is nothing squirrelled away for a rainy day).

Lets see how much Putin wants Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Lets see how much of a sacrifice the Oligarchs will make to support their man.

Sanctions are a two way street I'm afraid. The fact the EU are cowardly allowing themselves to be bullied by the US could jump up and bite them in the ass. I don't know if Putin was supported by the Oilgarch's as you say. But from looking and listening to the clueless JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs's man Obama, who reads off a script with his head down everyday, means that I don't take his word on anything. Himself and Cameron haven't a clue. But us in Ireland don't have a dog in this fight, so we can stay the hell out of it. Good look to the NATO troops, who could be sent in to die for these US/EU warmongering pigs. They should go back and clean up their mess in Libya, before going in to creating more chaos elsewhere for someone else to clean up.

Every bloody day we're reading about deaths, murders, massacres, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, all from there disastrous interventions. Lets not forget the warmongering against Iran, which has quietened down these days thankfully.

All they are is a pack of warmongers. But yet not one of them would send their son out to fight and die. Send out the poor man's child has always been the way. Cowards the lot of them.

I'd gladly let Russia roll right across Europe and even into Ireland. They'd govern better than what we already have.

comongethappy

steveblack572 wrote: »

Is this just your opinion or can you back it up with links?

This is memory stuff from defence articles.

Realcleardefence.com
& naval-technology.com have some good data.

None of what I said is false though.

Europe's BMD shield is largely based on a few Arleigh Burke destroyers in Spain & Italy, (I'm unsure specifically of their capability, but I don't think its sufficient).
A land based Aegis was promised but not yet delivered... It may be reevaluated.
America is indeed trying to perfect a system to knock out satellites, but its apparently miles from completion.

I'm pretty certain a heavy ICBM in terminal phase is too fast to intercept, but smaller ones can be shot down if in range of Aegis or PAAMS.

comongethappy

Conas wrote: »

I'd gladly let Russia roll right across Europe and even into Ireland. They'd govern better than what we already have.

Why wait?

You can leave for Putin's paradise tomorrow if you like.

(Just ignore that after Syria, the next most numerous people claiming asylum in the EU are Russians, doesn't really speak of a nation at ease with itself) .....http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Asylum_statistics

Gatling

Speaking about current issues a video purported to have been released by Isis ( the sick Islamic State ) with a message for valdamir putin featuring captured su 25 aircraft sent to bashir al asad to fight against the rebels , isis said it's planning on sending his weapons back to him direct or soon .

We know there won't be a fight between Russia and Nato as much as I personally love to say Nato would kick ass the truth is Nato is pretty much another UN fat and full of wantabe political players .

The American's have been pretty hamstrung since the kursk incident .

Russian capabilities are over played Yes they have nuclear weapons .and some pretty damn good air defence systems and apparently some hi tech naval torpedoes that can sink an American aircraft carrier in one go .
But after that there main fighter aircraft are designed for short -medium ranges to prevent pilots from detecting something they have been paranoid about since the 70's .
There armour such as tanks and apc's are relics of the cold war and would be easy picking for modern forces .

The American's are at least 20-30 years ahead of Russian developments in military research and development .
(But enough of the top trumps for now )

Sanctions are definitely the way to go because sooner or later the oiliarch are going to realise putin is dangerous and decide its him or us and that will hopefully followed by the general population deciding they want there freedom back

Conas

comongethappy wrote: »

Why wait?

You can leave for Putin's paradise tomorrow if you like.

(Just ignore that after Syria, the next most numerous people claiming asylum in the EU are Russians, doesn't really speak of a nation at ease with itself) .....http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Asylum_statistics

My comment was aimed at the warmongers, who are always wanting to see war and conflict. If you are happy to be on the side of US/EU/NATO as are others, why don't you all go and fight the pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine then? I know you wouldn't though, and you know you wouldn't either.

Talk the talk, but can't walk the walk.

comongethappy

Conas wrote: »

My comment was aimed at the warmongers, who are always wanting to see war and conflict. If you are happy to be on the side of US/EU/NATO as are others, why don't you all go and fight the pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine then? I know you wouldn't though, and you know you wouldn't either.

Talk the talk, but can't walk the walk.

Being due to give birth imminently & being willing to kill only for consistent sleep, its not on the cards.

And the only foreign forces in Ukraine are Russia's.

Why don't you live in Russia if you crave the stern hand of Vlad as you mentioned?
Something about talking & walking?

Conas

comongethappy wrote: »

Being due to give birth imminently & being willing to kill only for consistent sleep, its not on the cards.

And the only foreign forces in Ukraine are Russia's.

Why don't you live in Russia if you crave the stern hand of Vlad as you mentioned?
Something about talking & walking?

Well sure go to Ukraine (I here the stooges there are bringing back conscription) if you want the Russians out so badly. I'm sure they'll put you out on the frontline. I don't need to go anywhere. As I said already, if my hero Putin wants Europe, he can have it all as far as I'm concerned. I won't resist. :cool: EU/US/NATO and all the others never did anything for me, so I've nothing to lose. What do I care.

KELTICKNIGHTT

Conas wrote:

Well sure go to Ukraine (I here the stooges there are bringing back conscription) if you want the Russians out so badly. I'm sure they'll put you out on the frontline. I don't need to go anywhere. As I said already, if my hero Putin wants Europe, he can have it all as far as I'm concerned. I won't resist.  EU/US/NATO and all the others never did anything for me, so I've nothing to lose. What do I care.

what a load of rubbish

InTheTrees

Conas wrote: »

Well sure go to Ukraine (I here the stooges there are bringing back conscription) .

Russia has always had conscription.

InTheTrees

Conas wrote: »

My comment was aimed at the warmongers, who are always wanting to see war and conflict.
.

The logic of the bully.

Fight back against an aggressor and you're a warmonger.

Better that than a coward.

Conas

InTheTrees wrote: »

The logic of the bully.

Fight back against an aggressor and you're a warmonger.

Better that than a coward.

Fight the fight then tough guy. Fight the fight. Get off from behind your computer screen and go do the fighting then. Since you want war so badly, and leave everyone else in peace. But you'd be clever enough to send in the poor man's child, let him do the fighting. Give your life for Obama, Cameron, and NATO if your dumb enough.

A lot of tough talking on here, but I bet not one of you will enlist. Playing Call of Duty of on your Xbox is about as far as you'd go. You want Russia out of Crimea, off with you. Less warmongering for the rest of us to have to listen to. Which is rammed down our throats, just about everywhere these days.

InTheTrees

Conas wrote: »

Fight the fight then tough guy. Fight the fight. Get off from behind your computer screen and go do the fighting then. Since you want war so badly, and leave everyone else in peace.
.

I have no clue what you're on about. We're on an internet forum.

I sympathise with Ukraine and the way they're being fcuked with by Russia and I hope the west gets its crap together and offers them more support.

Whats your solution?

InTheTrees

Conas wrote: »

A lot of tough talking on here, but I bet not one of you will enlist. .

You're getting really confused about the role of discussing current events.

comongethappy

InTheTrees wrote: »

Better that than a coward.

Catamite is better.
That craven desire to be f*cked repetedly by the older strong-man Putin, as he does the Russian people.

If being against this thugs conquest of neighbouring lands makes one a warmonger, I'll take it over a catamite any day!


Today's a big day in Ukraine.
Ceasefire day.
Its a test as to how strong Putin's control over local rebels stretches in terms of ceasefire discipline.

Loose lips Porshenko meanwhile can't help himself

Decadent capitalist Rag, Guardian wrote:

But Poroshenko, who expressed cautious optimism about the truce, caught Nato officials off-guard with the disclosure that, while Nato was not arming Ukraine, at least one country, which he did not name, was providing Kiev with high-precision weapons.

I want to say..... Poland?
Any raises on Poland?

Or Petro could just be making it up to appear hopeful to local media..... 50/50 it's fantasy.

Elmer Blooker

InTheTrees wrote: »

I sympathise with Ukraine and the way they're being fcuked with by Russia and I hope the west gets its crap together and offers them more support.

Whats your solution?

do we have to go over this again and again?
Ukraine and Ukrainian people mean nothing to the "west" but it's resources do.
This is all about the supply of gas to Europe. People mean nothing to NATO as 1m dead Iraqis will testify.
* The biggest danger facing the EU today is NOT Putin and you better believe it. Russia wants a strong EU to trade with, guess who's trying to put a stop to this?

My comment was aimed at the warmongers, who are always wanting to see war and conflict.

agree 100% conas. Right now at the NATO summit the goons and Obama sycophants are planning an arms race, a cold war as its good for business. This lot will never see bloodshed and dead bodies as they will make sure the fighting is thousands of miles away.

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

do we have to go over this again and again?
Ukraine and Ukrainian people mean nothing to the "west" but it's resources do.
This is all about the supply of gas to Europe. People mean nothing to NATO as 1m dead Iraqis will testify.
* The biggest danger facing the EU today is NOT Putin and you better believe it. Russia wants a strong EU to trade with, guess who's trying to put a stop to this?



agree 100% conas. Right now at the NATO summit the goons and Obama sycophants are planning an arms race, a cold war as its good for business. This lot will never see bloodshed and dead bodies as they will make sure the fighting is thousands of miles away.

So Vladimir putin invading a sovereign nation because the population wanted to choose it's own destiny and freedom ,
And not what the Kremlin goons wanted .
Isn't causing a cold war .
Russia who have ramped up military expenditure massively in the last few years alone .

Elmer Blooker

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/01/us-ukraine-crisis-baltics-idUSKBN0GW2IT20140901
These postage stamp Baltic republics are getting very cocky aren't they?
They think the NATO umbrella will protect them - for starters Russia will not invade these NATO members but when their gas is switched OFF and they're queueing up at soup kitchens in the snow we'll see how much their US "friend and ally" will care about them. They remind me of the Kurds who are doing all the fighting on the ground in N.Iraq, at the moment they are "gallant allies" but when the fighting is over and they want their own independent state they will told in no uncertain term what they can do with themselves - "p*** off, theres oil here"

So Vladimir putin invading a sovereign nation

The evidence didn't come from Marie Harf by any chance?

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/01/us-ukraine-crisis-baltics-idUSKBN0GW2IT20140901
These postage stamp Baltic republics are getting very cocky aren't they?
They think the NATO umbrella will protect them - for starters Russia will not invade these NATO members but when their gas is switched OFF and they're queueing up at soup kitchens in the snow we'll see how much their US "friend and ally" will care about them. They remind me of the Kurds who are doing all the fighting on the ground in N.Iraq, at the moment they are "gallant allies" but when the fighting is over and they want their own independent state they will told in no uncertain term what they can do with themselves - "p*** off, theres oil here"


The evidence didn't come from Marie Harf by any chance?

So sovereign nations getting buzzed by Russian military aircraft and naval vessels .
Are getting cocky in your own words .

So explain this why would Russian military aircraft are threatening Baltic states airspace and waters exactly .

What exactly did these states do to upset tzar valdamir 1st

gandalf

Looks like Estonia better watch out now.

The Estonian Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador to Estonia Yuri Merzljakov in connection with today's incident, in which unidentified individuals from Russia abducted an official of the Estonian Internal Security Service on Estonian territory near the Luhamaa border checkpoint.

Foreign Minister Urmas Paet said that the Estonian Embassy in Moscow is also in contact with the Russian Foreign Ministry. “This is a very disturbing incident. We expect to receive all manner of help and cooperation necessary from Russia in solving this case and bringing the Estonian citizen back to Estonia,” Paet said.

http://vm.ee/en/news/estonian-foreign-ministry-summoned-russian-ambassador-connection-todays-cross-border-incident

Elmer Blooker

These little countries demanding that NATO send weapons to Ukraine is not a clever move, leave that kind of talk to the big boys with the big toys.

So explain this why would Russian military aircraft are threatening Baltic states airspace and waters exactly .

Russia shares a border with these countries so it is quite possible that their aircraft come close to their borders but the sooner Putin moves his country away from NATO territory the better.

Looks like Estonia better watch out now.

a nice little "incident" to coincided with the NATO summit - probably will have disappeared off the news by this time tomorrow.

Lemming

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

These little countries demanding that NATO send weapons to Ukraine is not a clever move, leave that kind of talk to the big boys with the big toys.

So you're ok with "little" countries being bullied by big countries, and considering themselves under enough of a threat that they ask one big country to protect them against another big country, or that they join a collective of countries to stand up to the "big boys" as you put it.

I dare say that all of these "little" countries have a great deal better idea of what it's like to live under a Russian jackboot than you do ...

Russia shares a border with these countries so it is quite possible that their aircraft come close to their borders but the sooner Putin moves his country away from NATO territory the better.

And yet ... the Russians are very quick to tell others when they've violated their airspace. And that's on top of the Russians routinely sending nuclear bombers into UK airspace. It's sabre-rattling doctrine that goes back to the cold war days and nothing more. Incidentally, it was under Putin's watch that had all those military cold war flights were re-instated a few years back.

In short, Russia knows where it's f*cking borders are (they're ever trying to expand upon them so they must know ... ) to the decimal point of latitude & longitude. Saying it's aircraft have "strayed" is either a work of fiction, or indication that its pilots are incompetent.

Conas

Gatling wrote: »

So Vladimir putin invading a sovereign nation because the population wanted to choose it's own destiny and freedom ,
And not what the Kremlin goons wanted .
Isn't causing a cold war .
Russia who have ramped up military expenditure massively in the last few years alone .

What about the illegal invasion of Iraq, and the murdering of 100,000's of innocent civilians, and the theft of all their oil based based on a pack of lies. Why hasn't America been sanctioned?

What about Israel, and the deaths of thousands of innocent Palestinians, and now recently the theft of all that land in the West Bank? Why the bloody hell aren't they being sanctioned for those violations of International Law? We don't see NATO doing anything about that though do we?

Your only against the actions of the Russians because your being fed it day and night by the media. Yet you'd turn a blind eye to the criminal behaviour of others, because it gets swept under the rug, and isn't being fed to your eyes and ears in the same manner. People like yourself are incapable of thinking outside the box, or simply don't want to think outside the box