Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

Gatling

Fig of Fallacy wrote: »

w w w.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/rbth/politics/11067547/ukraine-crisis-truth-mh17.html

(spaces in link between the www)

From article -> interview with Sergei Lavrov

"The cost in human life of this conflict has already been high and tens of thousands of people have been displaced because of the fighting. How do you view the humanitarian situation in Ukraine?

The humanitarian situation in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine is catastrophic and continues to deteriorate. And it is not only our view. This assessment is widely shared in the United Nations, including the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs, in the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and in the Council of Europe.

More than 2,000 people have been killed and more than 5,000 wounded, many of them children. There is an acute shortage of food and medicine and growing risk of outbreaks of infectious diseases.

More than 200,000 people in Lugansk are deprived of electricity, drinking water and means of communication. A lot of people have fled the area of conflict. Since April 1, nearly 775,000 Ukrainian citizens entered the Russian territory, and 190,000 Ukrainians applied for a refugee status in Russia.

Temporary shelters have been put up in our country to accommodate tens of thousands of refugees. Under these circumstances it is crucial to ensure the immediate supply of humanitarian aid to the people of south-eastern Ukraine."

Here is the actual UN report no mention of 775,000 entering russia ,
Or the 190,000 applying aslyum in Russia .

But if you scroll down to the bottom you'll read some interesting stuff about the current situation including people fleeing Crimea in there thousands .

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=48588#.VAsMpsk1jqA

mmmcake

As of 2005, the total population of Crimea is 1,994,300, UN states the total who left around 16,000.
Don't look like they are fleeing for their lives in great numbers from the evil russians.
The number of displaced in the country as a whole was 190,000 as of 20 August. Did not state where they went, to russia or the east ukraine, so you can spin it to favour either side.

Fig of Fallacy

Gatling wrote: »

Here is the actual UN report no mention of 775,000 entering russia ,
Or the 190,000 applying aslyum in Russia .

But if you scroll down to the bottom you'll read some interesting stuff about the current situation including people fleeing Crimea in there thousands .

w w w.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/un-says-more-than-1-million-ukrainian-refugees-fleeing-conflict-zones/506311.html

(spaces between the www in link)

"The total includes 814,000 Ukrainians now in Russia with various forms of status, as well as compatriots who have fled to Belarus, Moldova, the three Baltic states and European Union, a senior official of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees said.

"It's safe to say you have over a million people now displaced as a result of the conflict, internally and externally together," Vincent Cochetel, director of the UNHCR's bureau for Europe, told reporters in Geneva.

"I mean 260,000 in Ukraine, it's a low estimate, 814,000 in Russia, then you add the rest ... Belarus, Moldova, the European Union."

Of 814,000 Ukrainian nationals who have entered Russia this year, 260,000 have applied for some sort of protective status, he said. The remaining 554,000 have arrived on the basis of a visa-free regime allowing them to stay up to 270 days, he added."

Your link states that 2800(in the last month, 16,000 in total) left Crimea. A bit disproportionate dont you think?

(edited to correct mistake, and mistake corrected)

Fig of Fallacy

w w w.unhcr.ie/news/irish-story/number-of-displaced-inside-ukraine-more-than-doubles-since-early-august-to

"A larger number of Ukrainians are arriving in Russia under the visa-free regime. The Russian authorities say around 814,000 Ukrainians have entered Russia since the start of the year. This figure includes people who have applied for refugee/temporary asylum and other residence options."

Gatling

mmmcake wrote: »

As of 2005, the total population of Crimea is 1,994,300, UN states the total who left around 16,000.
Don't look like they are fleeing for their lives in great numbers from the evil russians.
The number of displaced in the country as a whole was 190,000 as of 20 August. Did not state where they went, to russia or the east ukraine, so you can spin it to favour either side.

190,000 displaced we'll agree on that for now

But the another poster says it's 770,000 + 190,000 applying for aslyum .that's a combined 967,000 displaced not the 190,000 that even the UN are saying is displaced
Quoting sergei lavrov the same Mr Lavrov who states there are no russians in East ukraine.

Now 16,000 fleeing there home country in a few week would suggest something is happening there hardly 16,000 fleeing for a holiday.

On a side observation how come we've yet to see this mass movement of people flooding into Russia not even russia media have shown any pictures or videos of these people no camps and field hospitals .
no EU / western media have reported on it .

Think we see in every conflict in the last 25 years but yet nobody's reporting it

Elmer Blooker

AbusesToilets wrote: »

There are other sources of energy, particularly natural gas. The US could certainly have the capacity to supply Europe, and with Russia's supply cut off, the perfect storm of opportunity and ability to stick it to a rival.

How? Will a pipeline be built under the Atlantic overnight?
Will terminals to receive this gas be built overnight? How many tankers would be required to meet Europe's energy needs?
I hope and pray that Russia turns off ALL gas to Europe but not until winter begins. The EU deserves to be brought to its knees for blindly following American foreign policy. THEY are not affected by sanctions.
You would really wonder who actually is in control of the EU? Why commit economic suicide?

Gatling

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

How? Will a pipeline be built under the Atlantic overnight?
Will terminals to receive this gas be built overnight? How many tankers would be required to meet Europe's energy needs?
I hope and pray that Russia turns off ALL gas to Europe but not until winter begins. The EU deserves to be brought to its knees for blindly following American foreign policy. THEY are not affected by sanctions.
You would really wonder who actually is in control of the EU? Why commit economic suicide?

Have you stocked up on coal for the winter ultimately we suffer too .
Unless you're a russian in Russia

It's strange to think that's there is no way the EU could have prepared for this eventuality been russia has been dropping threats for the last 10/ 15 years

AbusesToilets

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

How? Will a pipeline be built under the Atlantic overnight?
Will terminals to receive this gas be built overnight? How many tankers would be required to meet Europe's energy needs?
I hope and pray that Russia turns off ALL gas to Europe but not until winter begins. The EU deserves to be brought to its knees for blindly following American foreign policy. THEY are not affected by sanctions.
You would really wonder who actually is in control of the EU? Why commit economic suicide?

There are more than enough terminals on the European side, over 20 at present with more being built.

I don't share your glee at the prospect of people suffering through a cold winter, but if it meant and end to Russia's ability to bully other countries then it would be worth the pain.

Not to forget that the Ukraine itself has significant unexploited gas resources, which is likely another reason for Russia's continued efforts to undermine them.

Elmer Blooker

NO ONE expected Russia to ban food imports from the EU. The days of communism and the failed collectivization policies are gone. Russia used to have to import vast quantities of grain from Canada, now Russia is an exporter of grain. The EU has the most to lose in an all out sanctions war, the EU countries will start bickering among themselves over handouts from Brussels for lost earnings and cracks will start to appear very quickly. Russia of course is a single country but whats important is it doesn't have the handout culture of the EU - they are much better geared for hardship than us spoon-fed Europeans!
Meanwhile, ol' Uncle Sam will be sitting on the fence laughing his head off at how dumb Europeans are.... " it was all so easy"

I don't share your glee at the prospect of people suffering through a cold winter,

well, at least the yanks will be warm this winter.

Not to forget that the Ukraine itself has significant unexploited gas resources,

we agree on something for once! Why do you think the CIA moved in and turned the population against each other, thats what they do!

AbusesToilets

If nothing else, your posts are always good for a laugh.

Russia, economic powerhouse, force for international justice and social utopia. Europe simply needs to get out of Russia's way and let it do what it wants and everything will be better. Why worry about international law, sure the Ukraine is so far away, not even worth thinking about.

Markcheese

Yup the CIA instigated protest in Ukraine, so the Europeans could have easy access to possible Ukrainian gas (which they'd prob use themselves) so that the CIA could then cut off that gas supply and sock it to their biggest trading partner , cos a fecked eu would kind of destabilize the recovering us economy ... Very Machiavellian but way beyond me.... I still dont see why they didn't just properly arm (surreptitiously ) the Ukrainians to ensure their victory ...

mmmcake

As they say follow the money.
Ihor Kolomoyskyi is a Ukraine oligarch worth billions.
The main fighting force in the East has been Kolomoyskyi and his private battalions.
Kolomoyskyi owns Burisma, which has the rights to all the natural gas sitting underneath east Ukraine...as long as that country remains part of the Ukraine.
Hundreds of billions of dollars worth. Burisma is the company that hired Hunter Biden, son of USA VP Joe.
Hired no doubt for his business brain.

If the peace holds and Novorussia secedes, Joe Biden and son stand to lose big money.
Kolomoyskyi stands to lose billions of dollars in profits.

Neither Kolomoyskyi nor Joe Biden were invited to the peace process. They have zero incentive to make it work. They have every incentive to sabotage it.
Id give it 4-5 days at most before it kicks off again.

Gatling

Cease fire has been officially broken

Reuters reporting heavy and sustained Artillery barrages east of mariupol city

mmmcake

Did it say who broke the ceasefire or are both sides guilty.

Gatling

mmmcake wrote: »

Did it say who broke the ceasefire or are both sides guilty.

Apparently a Ukrainian army post is under attack .

Which would suggest the russian backed forces

I'll post more info and links when it comes available

mmmcake

Check out Paul Craig Roberts, you could not call him a hater of the USA. Look him up on wiki.

The sanctions are based on Washington’s lie that, in Obama’s words (September 3),
“Russian combat forces with Russian weapons in Russian tanks” are deployed in eastern Ukraine. As Professor Michel Chossudovsky reports on Global Research, observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) “have registered no troops, ammunition or weapons crossing the Russian-Ukrainian border over the past two weeks.”

These passages are from Professor Chossudovsky’s report on the OSCD findings:

“The OSCE Observer Mission is deployed at the Russian Checkpoints of Gukovo and Donetsk at the request of Russia’s government. The decision was taken in a consensus agreement by all 57 OSCE participating States, many of which are represented at the NATO Summit in Wales.

“The OSCE report contradicts the statements made by the Kiev regime and its US-NATO sponsors. It confirms that NATO accusations pertaining to the influx of Russian tanks are an outright fabrication.

“NATO backed up Obama’s statements with fake satellite images (28 August 2014) that allegedly ‘show Russian combat forces engaged in military operations inside the sovereign territory of Ukraine’. These statements are refuted by a detailed report of the OSCE monitoring mission stationed at the Russia-Ukraine border. The NATO reports including its satellite photos were based on fake evidence.

Some here seem to be eating up all the anti russia propaganda, the facts on the ground are somewhat different.

mmmcake

Only found him tonight , a real eye opener. Read a few of his posts and it will change your view. The "west" does seem to be insane, we are being fed a constant stream of anti russian propaganda

paulcraigroberts.org/2014/09/02/warning-world-washington-nato-eu-vassals-insane-paul-craig-roberts-2/

He served in thee Reagan government, was editor of the WSJ and business week. He testified before congressional committees 30 times.
He is not what could be called a anti westerner.

Gatling

mmmcake wrote: »

Only found him tonight , a real eye opener. Read a few of his posts and it will change your view. The "west" does seem to be insane, we are being fed a constant stream of anti russian propaganda

And yet in this very thread we have been bombarded with nothing but pro russia and pro Vladimir putin propaganda .
because people won't listen to conspiracy theories .

realweirdo

News is Ukrainian government checkpoint has been attacked.
looks like rebels have just broken another ceasefire like the half dozen ceasefires before.
The whole thing is a shambles. Either Putin has no control over the rebels or he's controlling everything they do.
Time for serious sanctions I'd say.

realweirdo

mmmcake wrote: »

Only found him tonight , a real eye opener. Read a few of his posts and it will change your view. The "west" does seem to be insane, we are being fed a constant stream of anti russian propaganda

paulcraigroberts.org/2014/09/02/warning-world-washington-nato-eu-vassals-insane-paul-craig-roberts-2/

He served in thee Reagan government, was editor of the WSJ and business week. He testified before congressional committees 30 times.
He is not what could be called a anti westerner.

You only found him tonight?
My guess is he's a fringe element crank so beloved of the likes of RT.
Because you find someone who supports your argument doesn't make your argument right.
most people can see with their own two eyes what's going on in ukraine and don't need to get bogged down in propaganda, a battle which by the way the Putinistas are losing.

We are always told by the Putinistas that Ukraine isn't a democracy this despite countless changes of government since independence. And yet they convientlently ignore the charade that is russian "democracy" where you have a president for life.

realweirdo

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

How? Will a pipeline be built under the Atlantic overnight?
Will terminals to receive this gas be built overnight? How many tankers would be required to meet Europe's energy needs?
I hope and pray that Russia turns off ALL gas to Europe but not until winter begins. The EU deserves to be brought to its knees for blindly following American foreign policy. THEY are not affected by sanctions.
You would really wonder who actually is in control of the EU? Why commit economic suicide?

This is nonsence. Most of the russian energy companies are on the verge of bankrupcy. The revenue from gas and oil is basically what is keeping the russian economy afloat at the moment. They shut off the flow of revenue and the economy goes kaput and could take years to recover. Even Putin isn't that dumb.

Nice to know you hate the "west" so much though you'd like to see us all suffer. Why I ask are you still living here if its so awful?

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

There are more than enough terminals on the European side, over 20 at present with more being built.

it really doesnt matter how many terminals are on this side of the Atlantic if the Americans arent in a position to do anything. which they arent. for them to get their sh1t together in any meaningful way could take anything between ten to twenty years. im not sure what people think we should do for the next couple of decades. but I dont think freezing our arses off waiting on them is an option. and isnt just about infrastructure.US lng exports to Europe dont make sense on lots of fronts .this is taken from the article I linked a number of posts back Im not sure if you read or not but ill post the relevant paragraphs..

---

At this point, some might say that the ability of the US to export natural gas will rise because US domestic production is rising. While true, two things weigh on this view to render it moot.

The first is that European domestic gas production is falling. Norwegian production is going down, and North Africa remains a mess that cannot be counted upon to reliably increase its production over its consumption over any time frame you care to choose. So rising US production will be countered by rising US demand and falling European production, both of which will erode the apparent 'surplus' in the US that so many are (innumerately) counting on.

The second is because liquefying natural gas is enormously energy-intensive and expensive. To ship vast quantities of natural gas across the Atlantic, we'd need to liquefy it first. Fully 25% of the energy embodied in natural gas (NG) is wasted during the process of turning it into a liquid (LNG). That energy is simply gone: those expended BTUs cannot ever be used for anything else.

So when it's noted that Russia supplies 5.7 trillion cubic feet, that's of ordinary gas in its rightful gaseous form (NG).

The equivalent in US gas would be (5.7/0.75) = 7.6 trillion cubic feet (of NG) to account for the energy loss in the liquefying process (to make LNG).

In short, LNG is just an energetically stupid thing to do. It is wasteful

The final nail in the "US will supply Europe's gas" coffin is simple economics.

US LNG could be produced and shipped for about $9 per thousand cubic feet. Russia produces theirs for $.50 for the same amount and can sell it for a price well below $9 for as long as they wish.

People investing in an LNG terminal are tying up billions and billions in the project. They cannot invest in such a project because Europe might need gas for the next 2 or even 20 months because of temporary hostilities with Russia. They need 20 years of expected profitable sales to justify the expense.

Who thinks that the West is in any position to place a 20+ year permanent ban on Russian energy exports to Europe? Anybody?

A sanctions regime is the only thing that would make LNG from the US to Europe an economically workable proposition.

The truth is, there are a great many voices asking for LNG to be exported from the US but the real reason has nothing to do with Russia or Europe. The real reason is that the domestic NG industry would love to get much higher prices for their product than they are currently getting and LNG terminals is one way to help level the price playing field between the US and the rest of the world.

Europe won't get its independence from Russia, but US consumers will pay more.

There's nothing sensible about the recent attempts to link US LNG exports to freeing Europe from its dependence on Russian NG.

The numbers just don't work.

Worst of all, those proposing such schemes seem delightfully unaware that even the robust quantities of NG that the US seems to have are also finite, and that you get to use the embodied energy exactly once. But that's it.

Use that energy to liquefy the NG in LNG and you cannot then use that energy to make fertilizer, or erect a new electrical pylon, or build out a next generation mass transit system, or rebuild depleted soils.

By this viewpoint, calls to turn our domestic NG into LNG are ignorant at best; a crime against future generations at worst. Perhaps they're both.

But have no fear, Europe is not staffed by ignorant dummies and they will not risk their present and future prosperity by cutting off Russian imports of NG simply to appease US policy hawks or help the sitting president achieve some sort of political victory back home.

So it's highly unlikely that Europe will be clamoring for US LNG to the point that it would agree to a 20-year ban on Russian NG exports. Given this, it's doubtful that the Ukrainian situation will translate into any significant actions on the US LNG front.

realweirdo wrote: »

This is nonsence. Most of the russian energy companies are on the verge of bankrupcy. The revenue from gas and oil is basically what is keeping the russian economy afloat at the moment. They shut off the flow of revenue and the economy goes kaput and could take years to recover. Even Putin isn't that dumb.

it isnt just gas and oil revenue that is keeping the Russian economy afloat. and sanctions are a two way street if you are going to impose sanctions on their energy and banking sector you really can not discount the possibility of supply flow problems. you just cant. that wouldnt be prudent. the sanctions are designed to cripple the Russian economy. if it looks like happening clearly the Russians are just going to go nice one for that lads and do nothing. some 350,000 German jobs are dependent on trade with Russia. if the Russian economy goes kaput well you dont need me to point out the rest. and this in a country that imports 1/3 of its energy from the Russians crucial to their manufacturing sector. if Russia suffers then potentially Germany suffers and so to will Europe.

AbusesToilets

Here is an article from the Washington Post discussing such a proposal

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/03/25/can-u-s-natural-gas-rescue-ukraine-from-russia/

It mentions a likely timeline measured in 3-5 yrs before significant export volume would be likely. Not ideal, but far from the decades you're on about.

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Here is an article from the Washington Post discussing such a proposal

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/03/25/can-u-s-natural-gas-rescue-ukraine-from-russia/

It mentions a likely timeline measured in 3-5 yrs before significant export volume would be likely. Not ideal, but far from the decades you're on about.

likely being the operative word and thats being kind. its very unlikely. its pure unadulterated fantasyland bullsh1t emanating from the US and Washington with regard to them being in a position to supplement Russian gas supplies to Europe anytime soon if ever. the reasons why are clearly outlined in the links and txts I posted. the numbers just dont add up. and lets say they are on the ball with their timeline and I believe they arent but for argument sake lets say they are, excluding all the other external factors that must be factored in that they barely even touched on, five years is five years away. and gas contracts in the main are longterm. so thats that then really. Id also like to see the sources for some of the figures they have quoted. they quote a couple of studies but studies are studies they arent facts. and things change. Im not asking you to provide them Im just saying .there is any number of quotes I could take from that article but this one kinda stands out...

The same story applies to liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from other sources. Goldman Sachs estimated in its March 4 energy weekly that U.S. LNG prices would be 35 percent to 40 percent higher than Russian prices if imported by Europe in large quantities.

Prices are higher in Asia, which is why large numbers of the LNG export facilities approved so far have long-term contracts with customers in Japan. Very little of the LNG exports approved so far will go to Europe

as long as Russian gas remains cheaper than US lng exports they wont export it. basic economics.

the Americans have plans or so it would appear which is nice and all. its one thing having a plan though another putting that plan into action and making it work. and it making economic sense. which it doesnt.

the WP article mentions a study paid by Cheniere who operate the Sabine pass terminal..heres a quote from their chairman..

Charif Souki, Cheniere’s chief executive, said that the idea of his company’s exports alone liberating Europe from Russia’s Gazprom was “nonsense” and that only six to eight of 20-plus proposed rival export projects were “real”.

The east-west stand-off over Ukraine has sparked a political debate over whether the US should loosen its energy export restrictions so Europeans can buy liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from America’s shale energy boom.

Asked if Cheniere’s terminal could rescue eastern European countries from their dependence on Russia, Mr Souki said: “It’s flattering to be talked about like this, but it’s all nonsense. It’s so much nonsense that I can’t believe anybody really believes it.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/96f9e220-c0cb-11e3-bd6b-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F96f9e220-c0cb-11e3-bd6b-00144feabdc0.html%3Fsiteedition%3Duk&siteedition=uk&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2014-04-20%2Fus-gas-will-never-replace-russian-gas-europe#axzz2yaLJvP6T

aloyisious

I like mmmcake's ref (at 0037) to satellite images. I've been wondering how none have come to light proving/disproving ground force presence and movements. I'd imagine that live-feed or fresh photo-int would be liked by the combatants.

Re the OSCE presence at the Russian checkpoints (presume border-posts on Russian side - as Donetsk is the name of Russian town as well as Ukrainian city) I don't really see them as being definitive proof that Russian forces are not too-ing & fro-ing across the border. I don't know what the border-structure is like along it's length that would ensure armour etc could not cross at unapproved points without being seen. Is it like the Berlin Wall structure, where a breach would be clearly seen?

Icepick

Conas wrote: »

Sources all over the place. No uprising, violence, or deaths have been reported in Crimea since they voted to be part of Russia. Unless now you can prove us all to the contrary I'll happily listen.

http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/en/148/575223/
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/08/putin-soviet-therapy-crimea-20148207417556993.html

Icepick

aloyisious wrote: »

I like mmmcake's ref (at 0037) to satellite images. I've been wondering how none have come to light proving/disproving ground force presence and movements. I'd imagine that live-feed or fresh photo-int would be liked by the combatants.

Re the OSCE presence at the Russian checkpoints (presume border-posts on Russian side - as Donetsk is the name of Russian town as well as Ukrainian city) I don't really see them as being definitive proof that Russian forces are not too-ing & fro-ing across the border. I don't know what the border-structure is like along it's length that would ensure armour etc could not cross at unapproved points without being seen. Is it like the Berlin Wall structure, where a breach would be clearly seen?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5SbQAjbsUo

mmmcake

Icepick wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5SbQAjbsUo

To paraphrase Mandy Rice Davies "They would, wouldn't they."
Its Ukraine today tv, and in their description of the video, "Amateur footage appears to show Russian army deep inside Ukraine".
Key words are amateur and appears. So there is no way to know if it is real.

We should be asking to see quality satellite evidence from NATO not unverified youtube clips.
How hard could it be to show the world some Google Earth level quality photos of russian tanks rolling over the ukraine step.

Fig of Fallacy

Gatling wrote: »

190,000 displaced we'll agree on that for now

I agree that theres propaganda on boths sides and that figures are being massaged both ways, perhaps. Im interested in the moscow times Vincent Cochetel quote though.

"It's safe to say you have over a million people now displaced as a result of the conflict......"

Is he working for the kremlin to say such things? Doubt it.

Autonomous Cowherd

AbusesToilets wrote: »

There are more than enough terminals on the European side, over 20 at present with more being built.

I don't share your glee at the prospect of people suffering through a cold winter, but if it meant and end to Russia's ability to bully other countries then it would be worth the pain.

Not to forget that the Ukraine itself has significant unexploited gas resources, which is likely another reason for Russia's continued efforts to undermine them.

The ''gas'' that people are so blithely discussing is as a result of a huge hydraulic fracturing blitz all over the US which has environmentally damaged large tracts of land. Drinking water reservoirs have been contaminated, poor health statistics increase in frack-zones, there is a great deal of scientific research coming down on the side of fracking being a dangerous pursuit.

And yes, it has been pursued by US regardless of the effects on its population, including their property values plummeting.

Not to mention TTIP, a treaty which is in the process of being (non-transparently) negotiated to give corporations the rights to sue countries they invest in if they make trading conditions unfavourable (plus many other things). One of the main purposes of this is to facilitate gas from US.


I do not want the filthy fracked gas from USA