Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

WakeUp

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

"Peace in our time" eh?

nuclear war in our time, eh?

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Wars have been declared for less. Sanctions are a very effective tool for punishing misdeeds, just ask Iran.

are you seriously comparing Iran to Russia? seriously?..

AbusesToilets

Yes, two countries who have supported rebel groups in other countries to further their geopolitical aims.

Sanctions have been quite effective against the Iranian regime, as they will be against Russia.

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Yes, two countries who have supported rebel groups in other countries to further their geopolitical aims.

Sanctions have been quite effective against the Iranian regime, as they will be against Russia.

and you know this and can state that with such certainty how?..like Ive already asked you and you didnt give me answer but I would appreciate one now please..so youre saying that sanctions will have an effect against the Russian regime that means you believe the Russians will be bullied into submission..is that what you are saying?...sanctions will work against the Russians because what, Iran?..is this your logic.

AbusesToilets

Sanctions will work against Russia because they need to sell their oil, their economy is built on gas exports.

Your continued insistence that sanctions are a case of the West trying to "bully" Russia is laughable. Russia is behaving in a deplorable fashion and needs to be checked. Sanctions are the tools to do that.

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Sanctions will work against Russia because they need to sell their oil, their economy is built on gas exports.

Your continued insistence that sanctions are a case of the West trying to "bully" Russia is laughable. Russia is behaving in a deplorable fashion and needs to be checked. Sanctions are the tools to do that.

but you see that isnt an answer. you cant say that for sure because you dont know. are you a seer. sanctions will work against Russia because they need to sell their oil yet their economy is built on gas exports. right. and if youre going stand by what you are saying here Id like you to back it up please with facts, figures and sources for both, can you?..what else do you think sanctions are designed to do? if not bully and intimidate? spread the love maybe.. for the craic..what are sanctions designed to do? help Russia....

AbusesToilets

From a quick google:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia

Gas accounts for 16% of GDP and 70% of all exports.

http://www.aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/the-political-economy-of-russian-oil-and-gas/

The Rise of the Russian Petro-Gas State

From less than 50 percent in the mid-1990s,[14] the share of commodities in Russian exports has grown to 70 percent today, with oil accounting for more than half of the export income.[15] Representing up to 30 percent of the country’s GDP and half of its GDP growth since 2000,[16] hydrocarbons provided at least half of the state’s budget revenues last year.[17] Five years ago, Russia needed oil prices of $50 to $55 a barrel to balance its budget, but Alexei Kudrin, former first deputy prime minister and finance minister, estimated the breakeven price at $117 per barrel last year.[18]

Russia’s dependence on energy exports—and, consequently, its economy’s vulnerability to commodity price fluctuation—was highlighted by the 2009 world financial crisis. As oil plunged from $147 to $34 per barrel, the resource-based economy contracted by almost 8 percent—the largest drop among the G20 top industrial nations.

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2014/07/putin_economic_sanctions_he_has_nothing_to_fear_because_russia_is_europe.html

According to the Energy Information Administration, oil and natural gas accounted for 70 percent of Russia’s export revenues in 2012.

In fact, the trade between Europe and Russia largely consists of fuels. In 2013, the EU imported 166.3 billion euros of fuels from Russia, accounting for about 80 percent of Russia’s total exports to the EU.

AbusesToilets

WakeUp wrote: »

but you see that isnt an answer. you cant say that for sure because you dont know. are you a seer. sanctions will work against Russia because they need to sell their oil yet their economy is built on gas exports. right. and if youre going stand by what you are saying here Id like you to back it up please with facts, figures and sources for both, can you?..what else do you think sanctions are designed to do? if not bully and intimidate? spread the love maybe.. for the craic..what are sanctions designed to do? help Russia....

Sanctions allow countries to isolate and punish other countries for their negative behavior.

Referencing the effect of sanctions on Iran:

http://www.npr.org/2013/11/25/247077050/crippled-by-sanctions-irans-economy-key-in-nuclear-deal

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/iran-at-saban/posts/2014/03/21-iran-sanctions-russia-crimea-nuclear

Another view point that referenced the nuances and complications in getting sanctions to work.

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

From a quick google:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia

Gas accounts for 16% of GDP and 70% of all exports.

http://www.aei.org/outlook/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/europe/the-political-economy-of-russian-oil-and-gas/



http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2014/07/putin_economic_sanctions_he_has_nothing_to_fear_because_russia_is_europe.html

but that still doesnt show or explain why you believe sanctions are going to work?.. what about the half a trillion dollars the Russians are sitting on is reserve. who do you think can last longer in this game of chicken if they are in a financial position to absorb a financial shortfall. the Russians with their energy and cash reserves or Europe with our precarious financial position and energy cut off - should it happen -?...

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Sanctions allow countries to isolate and punish other countries for their negative behavior.

Referencing the effect of sanctions on Iran:

http://www.npr.org/2013/11/25/247077050/crippled-by-sanctions-irans-economy-key-in-nuclear-deal

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/iran-at-saban/posts/2014/03/21-iran-sanctions-russia-crimea-nuclear

Another view point that referenced the nuances and complications in getting sanctions to work.

Iran is not Russia. and Europe is not dependent on Iranian energy. so the analogy doesnt work.

AbusesToilets

The point is that targeted sanctions can have a positive effect, and if the EU stands together as a collective against Russia, then they have an opportunity to push Russia to back off it's disruptive actions in the Ukraine.

WakeUp

sanctions in theory are supposed to have an affect alright. that doesnt mean they will work. or its a smart thing to do. to hurt Russia to actually hurt them their energy exports to Europe need be hit. but that hurts us too. and over a longer period it will hurt us more than them. a lot more. if the Russians turn off the gas we suffer. if the EU cancels contracts keeping in mind that gas contracts are longterm then there will be huge financial and legal costs involved. then another option will be needed, is there enough lng on the market let alone at a price that wouldnt send us under. I dont think there is. both Russia and Europe are dependent on each other when it comes to energy. us for fuel them for money. both will suffer if something happens there is no way around it.

AbusesToilets

That's the point, the EU has to be serious about sanctions. That is the only way that Russia will think twice about it's actions and withdraw from the Ukraine.

WakeUp

but serious to the point that we shoot ourselves in the foot and cripple ourselves? whats the point in doing that. I can remember when sanctions were first put forward as an option and I said eventually we would reach the point we are at now. though at the time I was told by many nah nothing to worry about here sure its only going to be Vlads mates that are sanctioned his inner circle and that restriction of movements personal finances so on. no more jollys to London and such banging of hookers champagne parties and expensive shopping sprees for their wives. but that would be it. but that was not an accurate reading of the situation or what it would become and was never going to happen. because that wont force Russian hands, so more rounds of sanctions ensue. once you start down the road of sanctions they just get worse until someone backs down. or a compromise that suits all involved is reached. sanctions will not remove the Russians from Crimea. and probably not from anywhere else in Ukraine either. everytime sanctions have been placed upon the Russians they have responded in kind. why do you believe this time is going to be any different.

Gatling

Initial dutch report in to downing of MH17 published today suggests large number of high energy/ speed objects pierced the aircraft causing it to break up midair ,

Pilot error or technical fault completely ruled out,

Morpheus

interesting article :

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/09/08/346735504/some-in-russia-admit-their-troops-volunteer-in-ukraine

Ukraine and the West, including the United States, insist that the Russian army has been fighting in eastern Ukraine, a charge that Russia just as vehemently denies.

But reports from Russia now acknowledge that Russian soldiers are part of the battle — though they are claimed to be volunteers, on leave from their army jobs.

Critics say the Russian military is ordering soldiers into the fight, and covering up the deaths of those who are killed, in an unacknowledged war on foreign soil.

The Russian TV channel NTV carried a report on the funerals of two Russian paratroopers who were killed while fighting in Ukraine. The men were buried with full military honors, including the Russian national anthem and a gun salute fired by fellow paratroopers.

The NTV report quoted the leader of a prominent veterans' group as saying the men were heroes who died for the freedom of Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine. The report also said the two men took leave from their military duties in Russia, without telling their superiors that they planned to fight alongside the separatists in Ukraine's eastern provinces.





A convoy purportedly carrying humanitarian aid is parked about 17 miles from the Ukrainian border, Rostov-on-Don region, Russia, on Friday. Ukrainian officials have insisted on inspecting the cargo over fears that the convoy might be a pretext for invasion.


That's in keeping with a recent statement from the current leader of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic.

"We have never hidden that there are many Russians among us," Alexander Zakharchenko told reporters at a recent news conference. "There's no secret that among the volunteers from Russia, there are many military men."

Zakharchenko said there have been 3,000-4,000 Russians fighting with the separatists, and he acknowledged that some of them have been killed.

Russian leaders, from President Putin on down, consistently deny that Russia has any role at all in the fighting, but Russia's military has been challenged to explain an upsurge in dead and missing soldiers from its elite units.

Another two members of a parachute division were buried in the western Russian city of Pskov last month. The official explanation was that they had been killed in a training exercise in southern Russia, but references on social media suggested that they had actually been in eastern Ukraine.

An opposition lawmaker from the city, Lev Shlosberg, was severely beaten by unknown assailants after he tried to draw attention to rumors that units from Pskov were taking substantial casualties in the fighting.

Speaking by phone from his hospital bed, Shlosberg told NPR that officials aren't reporting the deaths of Russian soldiers.

"They deny it," he says. "The fact of the losses is denied, and the scale of the casualties. And they ended up denying the fact of the burials."

After Shlosberg and some independent news media tried to find out more about the deaths, the wreaths and name plates were removed from the two graves.

Shlosberg says Pskov is a military city with a long history of service to the country. He says people there deserve the truth about where their soldiers are fighting.

"There's a political decision to keep the information about the war from being published, so people aren't getting information, including the families," he says. "They make everyone keep silence and tell lies."

Valentina Melnikova, the head of the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers, an organization representing the troops' families, said in an interview with the independent TV channel Rain that there are reports that families have been told to keep quiet about the losses of their loved ones in the service.

"If relatives are threatened, they should demand an investigation, because no one should threaten relatives of those who died or were taken prisoner or wounded," Melnikova said. "No one should call this a secret."

Ukrainian officials claim that up to 2,000 Russian troops have been killed in the fighting. Ukraine has provided little evidence to support this claim, and it seems extremely high given that the overall death toll in months of fighting has been put at more than 3,000. But if even a fraction of that is true, the Russian military has a lot to explain to the families of the dead.

Lemming

Russian soldiers going AWOL or on leave to fight is one thing and it's difficult to argue either which way that they are being ordered to do so. But how does one square away a tank, never mind an entire armoured column or several? Any nations army would be deeply concerned that its hardware is apparently going walkabout ...

.... and yet the Russians have been flippant about such matters.

*cough* Occams Razor says "no".

pablomakaveli

In any other nations military you'd be kicked out for fighting for a seperatist movement in another country. The fact is, Russia isn't punishing them for doing so. This means that either they've been ordered there by their superiors or that the Russian military is turning a blind eye to it's personnel going to fight in another country. Either scenario implicates Russia.

comongethappy

Certainly the scores of tanks & APCs should receive reprimand for crossing the border..... Unless armour has annual leave entitlements also?

They've been a very naughty tank!

Gatling

comongethappy wrote: »

Certainly the scores of tanks & APCs should receive reprimand for crossing the border..... Unless armour has annual leave entitlements also?

They've been a very busy tank!

Begrudging tanks and armour sunny holidays what will the union think

aloyisious

Gatling wrote: »

Begrudging tanks and armour sunny holidays what will the union think

Maybe, if it's the Soviet one, a smile and denial.

AbusesToilets

WakeUp wrote: »

but serious to the point that we shoot ourselves in the foot and cripple ourselves? whats the point in doing that. I can remember when sanctions were first put forward as an option and I said eventually we would reach the point we are at now. though at the time I was told by many nah nothing to worry about here sure its only going to be Vlads mates that are sanctioned his inner circle and that restriction of movements personal finances so on. no more jollys to London and such banging of hookers champagne parties and expensive shopping sprees for their wives. but that would be it. but that was not an accurate reading of the situation or what it would become and was never going to happen. because that wont force Russian hands, so more rounds of sanctions ensue. once you start down the road of sanctions they just get worse until someone backs down. or a compromise that suits all involved is reached. sanctions will not remove the Russians from Crimea. and probably not from anywhere else in Ukraine either. everytime sanctions have been placed upon the Russians they have responded in kind. why do you believe this time is going to be any different.

That is exactly what the EU is looking for.

Sudden Valley

Should this thread not be renamed as just "Ukraine's Civil War"- haven't different factions of Ukrainians been fighting each other for a few months now. I know outside factions are involved, but that does happen in a lot of civil wars.

WakeUp

Ive no doubt that it is. as is your desire so is your will but that doesnt mean we always get what we want. sometimes it just doesnt work out such is life. sanctions are a gamble these sanctions are playing with fire its a risk. get it right and its well played. get it wrong and there will be a price to pay for it.

AbusesToilets

WakeUp wrote: »

Ive no doubt that it is. as is your desire so is your will but that doesnt mean we always get what we want. sometimes it just doesnt work out such is life. sanctions are a gamble these sanctions are playing with fire its a risk. get it right and its well played. get it wrong and there will be a price to pay for it.

There will be a price to pay either; the bigger risk is if the EU fails to stand firm with Russia, thus giving Putin tacit approval for his actions.

Gatling

Sudden Valley wrote: »

Should this thread not be renamed as just "Ukraine's Civil War"- haven't different factions of Ukrainians been fighting each other for a few months now. I know outside factions are involved, but that does happen in a lot of civil wars.

Hence the speech the new Ukrainian President gave in mariupol today where he almost seemed to have surrender when he said military action cant solve the current crisis as every time the Ukrainian army gain ground the Russian's send more forces to push them back further

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

There will be a price to pay either; the bigger risk is if the EU fails to stand firm with Russia, thus giving Putin tacit approval for his actions.

Ukraine isnt a member of the EU it isnt up to the EU to stand firm with Russia. sanctioning Russian energy companies and all the potential consequences that might bring. it isnt a smart move not even close and it has the potential to backfire. sanctions are not going to force the Russians hands. if people havent figured that out by now Im sure what else can be said.

Gatling

WakeUp wrote: »

Ukraine isnt a member of the EU it isnt up to the EU to stand firm with Russia.

There standing up for a country who for over 10+ years has been trying to become closer to europe and the European way of life but thanks to constant meddling and corruption from russia and Russian puppet governments the population has the right to choose there own destiny taken away ,

Now why should the EU and Nato allow russia to bully them exactly

Icepick

On the bright side, Europeans are now forced to adopt alternative sources of energy, seek more reliable suppliers and improve energy efficiency.
Is this Putin's way of combating the Climate Change?

AbusesToilets

Very generous of Putin to come to NATO's aid by making them relevant again.