Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

InTheTrees

Icepick wrote: »

On the bright side, Europeans are now forced to adopt alternative sources of energy, seek more reliable suppliers and improve energy efficiency.
Is this Putin's way of combating the Climate Change?

True. Russia can try blackmailing western europe for only so long.

Let them deal with the chinese instead and see how easy it is for them.

Luckily russia doesnt have much else of value that we need.

Gatling

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Very generous of Putin to come to NATO's aid by making them relevant again.

Actually its a mix of Afghanistan and Putin

Now that Nato are out Afghanistan after the new year ( in which many believe they had a poor showing)

They can now show unity and prove there up for a fight

AbusesToilets

Gatling wrote: »

Actually its a mix of Afghanistan and Putin

Now that Nato are out Afghanistan after the new year ( in which many believe they had a poor showing)

They can now show unity and prove there up for a fight

NATO didn't have much of a productive role in Afghanistan, it was the english speaking countries that did all the work (US, UK, Australia, NZ, Canada). This Russia situation might force the other countries to start taking their defence contribution and budgets seriously again (Germany, I'm looking at you). The EU has relied on the US for too long when it comes to defence.

Gatling

AbusesToilets wrote: »

NATO didn't have much of a productive role in Afghanistan, it was the english speaking countries that did all the work (US, UK, Australia, NZ, Canada). This Russia situation might force the other countries to start taking their defence contribution and budgets seriously again (Germany, I'm looking at you). The EU has relied on the US for too long when it comes to defence.

Exactly turkey couldn't get involved either for fears of reprisals from there own Muslim community .
This is step up time for the whole alliance and Canada in particular will be pushing for a turn out they're due a run in with Russia over the artic which russia wants to claim as it own pushing Canada out

Red Nissan

AbusesToilets wrote: »

That is exactly what the EU is looking for.

But sanctions only work from a position of strength. I'm saying no more just now.

I'll ask you WHO will back down? In your opinion of course.

AbusesToilets

What I think will happen is the EU will obfuscate long enough for Putin to achieve his goals in the Ukraine, threaten sanctions and then reach a deal that allows them to save face while not penalising Russia in any meaningful way.

I hope that they choose to follow through on their threats and stand up to Russia's aggression for a change.

Red Nissan

AbusesToilets wrote: »

What I think will happen is the EU will obfuscate long enough for Putin to achieve his goals in the Ukraine, threaten sanctions and then reach a deal that allows them to save face while not penalising Russia in any meaningful way.

I hope that they choose to follow through on their threats and stand up to Russia's aggression for a change.

Pretty good answer. Problem is Russia has made other arrangements and she no longer needs to supply Europe at all. Europe might starve in your lifetime. Russia, China, Argentina grow rich and they won't even visit us as tourists, they having spectacular scenery and beaches themselves already.

oscarBravo

Red Nissan wrote: »

Pretty good answer. Problem is Russia has made other arrangements and she no longer needs to supply Europe at all. Europe might starve in your lifetime. Russia, China, Argentina grow rich and they won't even visit us as tourists, they having spectacular scenery and beaches themselves already.

Again with this belief that Russia is a self-sufficient superpower and Europe is some sort of desperately dependent poor relation that would starve in the morning were it not for Russian largesse.

Where does this idea that the EU is desperately, hopelessly, helplessly dependent on Russia for its very survival come from?

Gatling

But been what should have a watershed moment today with the initial report into the MH17 downing confirmed what most of us knew and believed .
Russian forces or russian equipped forces shoot down a civilian airliner .
No outrage
No condemnation .

We might see fresh sanctions on Monday but I honestly believe unless something suddenly changes in the next 72 hours ,
Then russia will take eastern ukraine as it's own ,
At no stage will we see russia or there military presence withdraw from the sovereign state of Ukraine if anything we will see an increase in russian forces in Ukraine unchallenged .

InTheTrees

Red Nissan wrote: »

Russia, China, Argentina grow rich and they won't even visit us as tourists, they having spectacular scenery and beaches themselves already.

Finally the real reason we should cave in to Russian bullying:

We may lose the free spending hoardes of Russian tourists coming to visit our spectacular beaches.

aloyisious

Red Nissan wrote: »

Pretty good answer. Problem is Russia has made other arrangements and she no longer needs to supply Europe at all. Europe might starve in your lifetime.

Hopefully not, as necessity has been seen as a legitimate casus belli in the past and geopolitical-science theorists have been suggesting that the next major global war will be down to a lack of fuel and food.

BoJack Horseman

Red Nissan wrote: »

Problem is Russia has made other arrangements and she no longer needs to supply Europe at all. Europe might starve in your lifetime. Russia, China, Argentina grow rich and they won't even visit us as tourists, they having spectacular scenery and beaches themselves already.

In a decade (when their pipes to china are complete) Russia will still be supplying far less gas than it currently does to a hand full of Europen states.

The much vaunted deal with China is to supply about what Spain uses per year... Or... Around 6% of Russia's output.....

There is still another 200 bn m3 of gas for export, mostly to Europe..... That isn't going to change

How this translates into Putin holding all the cards I don't know?

Communist China will never allow its people the freedom to reach their potential & is the mother of all debt bubbles.

Argentina? The same Argentina with the economy smaller than Belgium's?


I'm flumoxed by the numerous posts that Russia's $2.2 tn economy would hurt disproportionately worse the West's $45 tn economy.

gandalf

Pressure already starting to build within Russia. The fact that this one company is taking legal action against the Russian State speaks volumes considering the fate suffered by some of those who have stood up against Putin in the past.

Mikhail Zub, the long-standing head of a privately owned fish processing plant in the northern city of Murmansk, is one of a kind in Russia.

Russian businessmen tend not to get involved in political cases, especially those linked to the name of President Vladimir Putin, due to a fear that they could suffer the same treatment as Yukos founder Mikhail Khodorkovsky or opposition leader Alexei Navalny, both of whom have spent time in the dock or behind bars.

Zub did just that, however, when he challenged a government decree, signed by Putin in early August, that placed a one-year embargo on food products from countries that have imposed sanctions against Russia for its perceived role in the Ukraine crisis.

Norway, Russia's biggest salmon and herring supplier, was among those countries.

Zub filed a lawsuit at the Supreme Court, calling for the ban to be amended to allow the Murmansk Fish Factory to continue buying now-outlawed fish from Norway.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/murmansk-fish-factory-challenges-russia-s-food-ban/506748.html

InTheTrees

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Communist China will never allow its people the freedom to reach their potential & is the mother of all debt bubbles.

Also while it is true that the United States has a massive disproportionate debt to china, it also means the two have developed a much closer relationship because if the usa (the worlds largest economy) ever stopped making its debt repayments the Chinese bubble could easily burst.

Not likely, but Russia shouldn't think a little oil is going to buy them any loyalty from China.

Gatling

InTheTrees wrote: »

Also while it is true that the United States has a massive disproportionate debt to china, it also means the two have developed a much closer relationship because if the usa (the worlds largest economy) ever stopped making its debt repayments the Chinese bubble could easily burst.

Not likely, but Russia shouldn't think a little oil is going to buy them any loyalty from China.

As it currently stands China owns roughly 50% of all American debt both prime and subprime mortgages and so on .
Last thing China would need is something effecting the american economy .

Gatling

On a side note today ukraine said they believed 70% of Russian forces have withdrawn back across the border.
The OSCE is asking to deploy drones to monitor the situation in eastern Ukraine .
Which I can't see russia allowing at all
And amnesty international had declared the conflict is an international conflict to which russia is a involved.
now we have to wait till later today to see if any new sanctions are imposed

gandalf

TBH the EU should push ahead with the sanctions to hammer home the message to Russia. All this dithering is playing right into Putins hands.

Gatling

gandalf wrote: »

TBH the EU should push ahead with the sanctions to hammer home the message to Russia. All this dithering is playing right into Putins hands.

That's why I was peeved last night .

What ever happened to urgently dealing with this ,
airliner shot down , country invaded and yet meeting to discuss what action to take next mean while ukraine is offering autonomy to two regions in the east .
Sneaky referendum's next

WakeUp

Gatling wrote: »

There standing up for a country who for over 10+ years has been trying to become closer to europe and the European way of life but thanks to constant meddling and corruption from russia and Russian puppet governments the population has the right to choose there own destiny taken away ,

this works both ways though right. if there is a large amount of people in the east of Ukriane who want more independence or closer ties to Russia then they should be allowed. or does that only work one way/

Now why should the EU and Nato allow russia to bully them exactly

but that doesnt make any sense. for reasons that are quite obvious. do you need me to point them out for you or can you figure them out yourself...

As it currently stands China owns roughly 50% of all American debt both prime and subprime mortgages and so on .
Last thing China would need is something effecting the american economy .

why dont you explain why Chinese, American debt and "sub prime mortgages" are relevant. and while youre at it explain why Chinese,American debt and sub prime mortgages are relevant to Europe. and also why Chinese, American debt and sub prime mortgages are relevant to European dependence on Russian energy. I wonder are your dialectical arithmetic skills as puerile as your map reading skills.

Icepick wrote: »

On the bright side, Europeans are now forced to adopt alternative sources of energy, seek more reliable suppliers and improve energy efficiency.
Is this Putin's way of combating the Climate Change?

whats your plan?....

AbusesToilets wrote: »

What I think will happen is the EU will obfuscate long enough for Putin to achieve his goals in the Ukraine, threaten sanctions and then reach a deal that allows them to save face while not penalising Russia in any meaningful way.

I hope that they choose to follow through on their threats and stand up to Russia's aggression for a change.

wait, were you not telling me sanctions were going to work? because Iran or something. and why do you think this is the most likely outcome. it wouldnt have anything to do with energy would it.

oscarBravo wrote: »

Again with this belief that Russia is a self-sufficient superpower and Europe is some sort of desperately dependent poor relation that would starve in the morning were it not for Russian largesse.

Where does this idea that the EU is desperately, hopelessly, helplessly dependent on Russia for its v survival come from?

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

In a decade (when their pipes to china are complete) Russia will still be supplying far less gas than it currently does to a hand full of Europen states.

The much vaunted deal with China is to supply about what Spain uses per year... Or... Around 6% of Russia's output.....

There is still another 200 bn m3 of gas for export, mostly to Europe..... That isn't going to change

How this translates into Putin holding all the cards I don't know?

Communist China will never allow its people the freedom to reach their potential & is the mother of all debt bubbles.

Argentina? The same Argentina with the economy smaller than Belgium's?

I'm flumoxed by the numerous posts that Russia's $2.2 tn economy would hurt disproportionately worse the West's $45 tn economy.

but it isnt just about the building of the pipeline its about the bigger picture. which seems to be beyond the grasp of most. and how can you say Russian exports wont change. who gets to decide that Europe. of course they dont. you cant say that as thats out of our hands, obviously. attempting to isolate the largest country in the world with the largest mineral and resources in the world thats a really smart thing to try and do. power on this planet is not quantified by population its quantified in resources.and without resources economies dont work.

InTheTrees wrote: »

Also while it is true that the United States has a massive disproportionate debt to china, it also means the two have developed a much closer relationship because if the usa (the worlds largest economy) ever stopped making its debt repayments the Chinese bubble could easily burst.

Not likely, but Russia shouldn't think a little oil is going to buy them any loyalty from China.

The Russians, Chinese and BRIC nations are actively attempting to consign the dollar as the worlds reserve currency to the dustbin. how this translates as developing a closer relationship I dont know. maybe you can explain that to me...regardless of debt or whatever. I dunno maybe some fell out of the bed one morning and walked over to the wardrobe. fumbling around instead of taking out a shirt or whatever one wears tripped up fell in and ended up in narnina. this alternative universe some of you appear to be operating in whats its like. blue skies gentle breeze all day. chicks aplenty and a constant supply of beer maybe. if anyone can post a map or gps coordinates to this magical wonderland please do. sounds like a blast so it does.

comongethappy

WakeUp wrote: »

this works both ways though right. if there is a large amount of people in the east of Ukriane who want more independence or closer ties to Russia then they should be allowed

True.

However no groundswell of opinion to join Russia exists in the eastern oblasts, so its pretty moot.

The Russians, Chinese and BRIC nations are actively attempting to consign the dollar as the worlds reserve currency to the dustbin.

How is that going btw?
Any word on what this currency will look like?

Gatling

Yawn yawn yawn


Nearly 25 years as a sovereign state and no word of discontent from the east of the country till russia invaded an annexed Crimea .
Now the same eastern Ukraine who received the lions share of all government subventions totalling billions .
Now funny thing over 10 years ago Viktor Yanukovich wanted to to hold a referendum about removing the black sea fleet from Crimea and all russian troops out which is what the majority of Ukraine wanted including the east

Que Vladimir putin getting involved and gasprom offering huge discounts for use of the port and permissions for Russian troops to stay for 25+ years .
Which Viktor Yanukovich signed now 10 years later Yanukovich gets kicked out of Ukraine taking billions of dollars with him and granted aslyum in Russia then the Crimea gets invaded and annexed and then gasprom announces there owed billions for gas and the deal signed by Yanukovich was torn up .
sounds like russia has a lot to answer for .

now is there any more history lessons needed because I've plenty to time to school obstreperous kids

WakeUp

comongethappy wrote: »

True.

However no groundswell of opinion to join Russia exists in the eastern oblasts, so its pretty moot.



How is that going btw?
Any word on what this currency will look like?

ok, so how are the rebels surviving and thriving it would now appear, if most of the people dont want anything to do with them. that part of Ukraine is heading toward a federal system. anything less the Russians I dont think will acccept, rightly or wrongly.

As for the BRIC nations, its still early doors but all the signs would indicate this is what they are attempting to do.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-15/brics-announce-100-billion-reserve-bypass-fed-developed-world-central-banks

WakeUp

Gatling wrote: »

Yawn yawn yawn


Nearly 25 years as a sovereign state and no word of discontent from the east of the country till russia invaded an annexed Crimea .
Now the same eastern Ukraine who received the lions share of all government subventions totalling billions .
Now funny thing over 10 years ago Viktor Yanukovich wanted to to hold a referendum about removing the black sea fleet from Crimea and all russian troops out which is what the majority of Ukraine wanted including the east

Que Vladimir putin getting involved and gasprom offering huge discounts for use of the port and permissions for Russian troops to stay for 25+ years .
Which Viktor Yanukovich signed now 10 years later Yanukovich gets kicked out of Ukraine taking billions of dollars with him and granted aslyum in Russia then the Crimea gets invaded and annexed and then gasprom announces there owed billions for gas and the deal signed by Yanukovich was torn up .
sounds like russia has a lot to answer for .

now is there any more history lessons needed because I've plenty to time to school obstreperous kids

do you now.

Gatling

WakeUp wrote: »

do you now.

I'm here all month and I don't charge

Morpheus

WakeUp wrote: »

ok, so how are the rebels surviving and thriving it would now appear, if most of the people dont want anything to do with them. that part of Ukraine is heading toward a federal system. anything less the Russians I dont think will acccept, rightly or wrongly.

As for the BRIC nations, its still early doors but all the signs would indicate this is what they are attempting to do.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-15/brics-announce-100-billion-reserve-bypass-fed-developed-world-central-banks

Wrongly. The Russians have no legitimate reason to be in the position to accept anything. its not their country, neither is the Crimea, and the reason the rebels haven;t died away is that they are pumping across the borders from different states. If Russia really wanted to end the innocent bloodshed, they would close the border and stop supporting puppet militia groups and this stupid nazi slogan propaganda. Russia are bullies of that geopolitical sphere.

There are idiots on both sides and now there are militias on both sides, which both Russia and the Ukraine have lost control of. whos really suffering? the civilians caught up in this quagmire of a Russian nostalgia crusade.

Putins next election will be bought with the blood of Ukranians AND Russians doing HIS bidding.

BoJack Horseman

WakeUp wrote: »

its about the bigger picture. which seems to be beyond the grasp of most.

I can't imagine how lonely it is to be the only one seeing the "bigger picture"!

and how can you say Russian exports wont change. who gets to decide that Europe. of course they dont. you cant say that as thats out of our hands, obviously. attempting to isolate the largest country in the world with the largest mineral and resources in the world thats a really smart thing to try and do.

OK..... Numbers....

Russia produces about 660 bn m3 of gas.
She consumes about 440 bn m3 of that.
Leaving a little over of 200 bn m3 for export.

In about a decades time, 38 bn m3 will be piped to China.
Where does the rest go?
Almost all the pipes, one way or another lead to Europe.

One way or another Russia is going to need to sell that 200 bn m3 of gas.... And it will be mostly sold to Europe, cos there ain't anywhere else for it to go.

(Unless you know of a suddenly built pipe network taking that volume elsewhere??)

power on this planet is not quantified by population its quantified in resources.and without resources economies dont work.

True.... The " West" having 7 times Russia's population yet 20+ times its wealth proves my point.

There is no battle of equals here.

BRIC nations

Aah yes....
BRICS: The straw-man who never seems to deliver what the devout plead it will.

WakeUp

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

I can't imagine how lonely it is to be the only one seeing the "bigger picture"!



OK..... Numbers....

Russia produces about 660 bn m3 of gas.
She consumes about 440 bn m3 of that.
Leaving a little over of 200 bn m3 for export.

In about a decades time, 38 bn m3 will be piped to China.
Where does the rest go?
Almost all the pipes, one way or another lead to Europe.

One way or another Russia is going to need to sell that 200 bn m3 of gas.... And it will be mostly sold to Europe, cos there ain't anywhere else for it to go.

(Unless you know of a suddenly built pipe network taking that volume elsewhere??)



True.... The " West" having 7 times Russia's population yet 20+ times its wealth proves my point.

There is no battle of equals here.


Aah yes....
BRICS: The straw-man who never seems to deliver what the devout plead it will.

it must be equally as lonely ignoring the reality of the situation hidden away in some fairyland cave hanging upside down like a bat. your whole premise here is that the Russians wont find another market for their gas and because pipelines are pointing toward Europe or whatever = the gas will end up here. that isnt logic. the gas will end up here if the Russian decide it so. nothing else. your population and wealth comment proves what exactly?...

WakeUp

Morpheus wrote: »

Wrongly. The Russians have no legitimate reason to be in the position to accept anything. its not their country, neither is the Crimea, and the reason the rebels haven;t died away is that they are pumping across the borders from different states. If Russia really wanted to end the innocent bloodshed, they would close the border and stop supporting puppet militia groups and this stupid nazi slogan propaganda. Russia are bullies of that geopolitical sphere.

There are idiots on both sides and now there are militias on both sides, which both Russia and the Ukraine have lost control of. whos really suffering? the civilians caught up in this quagmire of a Russian nostalgia crusade.

Putins next election will be bought with the blood of Ukranians AND Russians doing HIS bidding.

wrongly I can agree with that. you find me arguing there but we still need Russian energy. its just how it is.

comongethappy

WakeUp wrote: »

ok, so how are the rebels surviving and thriving

Because they are led, manned & armed by the 3rd largest military on the planet.

When Russian FSB & military officers declared a self proclaimed republic, it wasn't down to oratory skills or a hard fought campaign.

It certainly wasn't down to any political mandate from the locals..... Not at the ballot box nor even so much as an opinion poll!
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic#Public_opinion

To this day operating without political mandate.

Even the most biased can see that.

BoJack Horseman

WakeUp wrote: »

it must be equally as lonely ignoring the reality of the situation hidden away in some fairyland cave hanging upside down like a bat. your whole premise here is that the Russians wont find another market for their gas and because pipelines are pointing toward Europe or whatever = the gas will end up here. that isnt logic. the gas will end up here if the Russian decide it so. nothing else. your population and wealth comment proves what exactly?...

You can prove me wrong if you like.

Question to you:
Where will Russia sell its circa 200bn m3 of gas if not to Europe?
No hypotheticals.... Today..... 2015... 2020.

In the "reality of the situation" you obsess about.

And don't forget to show sources!