Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

WakeUp

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

You can prove me wrong if you like.

Question to you:
Where will Russia sell its circa 200bn m3 of gas if not to Europe?
No hypotheticals.... Today..... 2015... 2020.

In the "reality of the situation" you obsess about.

And don't forget to show sources!

what are you talking about dude. explain to me what you are trying to "prove" first?..of course Russia will continue to do business with Europe so long as we dont phuck the relationship up with them. maybe you missed it but it isnt doing the best at the moment.

WakeUp

comongethappy wrote: »

Because they are led, manned & armed by the 3rd largest military on the planet.

When Russian FSB & military officers declared a self proclaimed republic, it wasn't down to oratory skills or a hard fought campaign.

It certainly wasn't down to any political mandate from the locals..... Not at the ballot box nor even so much as an opinion poll!
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic#Public_opinion

To this day operating without political mandate.

Even the most biased can see that.

Im not biased about anything. I just dont give a sh1t about Ukraine Im concerned about ourselves. all of the above maybe its true and if it is Im not going to argue against it. best thing Kiev could do is give the east more autonomy get the Russians back to table. and lets get back to business.

BoJack Horseman

WakeUp wrote: »

what are you talking about dude. explain to me what you are trying to "prove" first?..of course Russia will continue to do business with Europe so long as we dont phuck the relationship up with them. maybe you missed it but it isnt doing the best at the moment.

It's starting to fall apart dude-bra.

You said rather mockingly:

it must be equally as lonely ignoring the reality of the situation hidden away in some fairyland cave hanging upside down like a bat. Your whole premise here is that the Russians wont find another market for their gas and because pipelines are pointing toward Europe or whatever = the gas will end up here. that isnt logic. the gas will end up here if the Russian decide it so. nothing else.

So, the question stands: If not Europe, where?

No matter what sanction the EU applies, Russia has no alternative but to sell it gas..... failure to do so is immediate economic suicide, as Russia has little reserves of cash & its bonds are junk (10%+ interest).

If you rebut that.... Please tell us where 200bn m3 of gas is sold to instead?.... In the reality of the situation of course.

WakeUp

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It's starting to fall apart dude-bra.

You said rather mockingly:


So, the question stands: If not Europe, where?

No matter what sanction the EU applies, Russia has no alternative but to sell it gas..... failure to do so is immediate economic suicide, as Russia has little reserves of cash & its bonds are junk (10%+ interest).

If you rebut that.... Please tell us where 200bn m3 of gas is sold to instead?.... In the reality of the situation of course.

is it now:D your premise is silly and your logic off the wall. because it assumes that the Russians will sell us their gas no matter what sanctions/threats the west places on them. are you having a laugh or what. the Russian/Chinese pipeline gives them direct access to the Asian market, ng not lng. and ng will always be cheaper than lng. you figure it out. Russia is sitting on half a trillion dollars in reserve. they can absorb a short term financial shortfall. Europe on the other hand deprived of Russian energy for say nine months or so. chaos will ensue. and not just economic. but dont let facts get in the way of the we dont need Russian energy sure its grand hatin on the pootin spunkfest.

Elmer Blooker

comongethappy wrote: »

How is that going btw?
Any word on what this currency will look like?

who knows what the future holds, things don't happen overnight, just because the mighty $ rules the world at the moment doesn't mean it will always be that way. This is an interesting read.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101705303

BoJack Horseman

WakeUp wrote: »

is it now:D your premise is silly and your logic off the wall. because it assumes that the Russians will sell us their gas no matter what sanctions/threats the west places on them. are you having a laugh or what. the Russian/Chinese pipeline gives them direct access to the Asian market, ng not lng. and ng will always be cheaper than lng. you figure it out. Russia is sitting on half a trillion dollars in reserve. they can absorb a short term financial shortfall. Europe on the other hand deprived of Russian energy for say nine months or so. chaos will ensue. and not just economic. but dont let facts get in the way of the we dont need Russian energy sure its grand hatin on the pootin spunkfest.

Well, its an answer at least.
Mocking as is your form, but your getting there.

So..... A few years from now 38 bn m3 goes to China.

You still haven't told the class where the other 200 bn m3 would go if Russia makes the error of thinking it holds the cards & cuts off the EU?

We will await your answer

comongethappy

WakeUp wrote: »

Im not biased about anything. I just dont give a sh1t about Ukraine.

Maybe?
Its not exactly secrets.
None of the thugs in charge of Luhansk or Donetsk were elected by any plebecite.

So why jump over anyone who posts even cursory criticism of Putin & his Ukrainian juntas?

You go at considerable lengths to defend one side only.

AbusesToilets

Gatling wrote: »

As it currently stands China owns roughly 50% of all American debt both prime and subprime mortgages and so on .
Last thing China would need is something effecting the american economy .

China holds about 8% of US national debt, around $1.2 Trillion.

Sourced from here:
http://www.factcheck.org/2013/11/who-holds-our-debt/

WakeUp

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Well, its an answer at least.
Mocking as is your form, but your getting there.

So..... A few years from now 38 bn m3 goes to China.

You still haven't told the class where the other 200 bn m3 would go if Russia makes the error of thinking it holds the cards & cuts off the EU?

We will await your answer

no mocking isnt my form. but if youre going to show up and start making ridiculous statements like Russia will continue to do business no matter what we do to them, forgive me for finding such statements funny. because thats nonsense. the only way it could get to the point that the Russians would cut off the supply is if the west keeps pushing this, increasing the sanctions, and the Russians turn around and say ok enough. at that point it doesnt matter where the gas does or doesnt go. if it happens it wont be coming here. and thats all that matters.

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

China holds about 8% of US national debt, around $1.2 Trillion.

Sourced from here:
http://www.factcheck.org/2013/11/who-holds-our-debt/

yep and that should worry the US. that isnt a good thing.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/18/us-usa-treasuries-china-idUSTRE70H5NX20110118

gandalf

Russia may have a big cash reserve but if they continue on as they are it could be spent quite quickly, especially if they do decide to withhold gas shipments.

Russia is burning billions propping up the Ruble.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140305/188114816/Russia-Spent-11Bln-on-Propping-Ruble-Amid-Conflict-Fears.html

MOSCOW, March 5 (RIA Novosti) – Russia’s central bank said Wednesday it burnt through a record $11.3 billion during interventions earlier this week on currency markets as the ruble plummeted amid fears of conflict breaking out in Ukraine.

More of that cash pile you are talking about is being wasted.

http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2014/09/05/four_reasons_for_putin_to_wag_the_dog_olive.html

Local and foreign investors in Russia are heading for the exits. An estimated $200 billion (U.S.) worth of rubles have been rapidly spirited out of the country since the Ukraine crisis. For perspective, the cash reserves of Russia, held by the central bank and the finance ministry, total about $600 billion.

Russia’s central bank is not independent of government, in contrast with other advanced economies. It has been directed by Putin to channel some of that $600 billion into propping up inefficient industries that Putin’s cronies have chronically mismanaged. Another chunk of those funds, again on Putin’s orders, is allotted to bailing out Russia’s shaky banks. Still more is designated for refinancing the debt of hulking Russian enterprises denied access to the world capital markets. Rosneft alone is begging Putin for a staggering $40 billion to roll over its debt.

WakeUp

comongethappy wrote: »

Maybe?
Its not exactly secrets.
None of the thugs in charge of Luhansk or Donetsk were elected by any plebecite.

So why jump over anyone who posts even cursory criticism of Putin & his Ukrainian juntas?

You go at considerable lengths to defend one side only.

how am I jumping all over people. this is the politics forum no or am I in the wrong forum? everywhere in here is grown up right. as Ive already pointed out I dont give a sh1t about Ukraine. I do however care about Russian energy supplies to Europe being threatened because of whats going on. but it seems that the possibility of that happening, which at the moment if we continue on this course is a real possibility, somehow doesnt matter. sure it will be grand or something. you can all hate on the pootin all you want. and Im going to keep an eye on that. if thats alright.

AbusesToilets

WakeUp wrote: »

yep and that should worry the US. that isnt a good thing.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/18/us-usa-treasuries-china-idUSTRE70H5NX20110118

That's not a worry though, because dumping debt will crash the Chinese economy. Similarly, the US holds massive amounts of foreign debt.

Im not biased about anything. I just dont give a sh1t about Ukraine Im concerned about ourselves. all of the above maybe its true and if it is Im not going to argue against it. best thing Kiev could do is give the east more autonomy get the Russians back to table. and lets get back to business.

This cracked me up, given you've been one of the posters most vehemently denying Russia's wrongdoings in the Ukraine.

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

That's not a worry though, because dumping debt will crash the Chinese economy. Similarly, the US holds massive amounts of foreign debt.

This cracked me up, given you've been one of the posters most vehemently denying Russia's wrongdoings in the Ukraine.

actually it is worry. because you dont want another country in a position to be able to do something like that even if it means pain for them. The Americans and Chinese in the not to distant future are going to be coming into direct conflict of interests in the Asia pacific. thats going to be interesting. so what sort of Russian wrongdoings in Ukraine have I been vehemently denying. and youre going to have to back this one up please,...

BoJack Horseman

WakeUp wrote: »

no mocking isnt my form. but if youre going to show up and start making ridiculous statements like Russia will continue to do business no matter what we do to them, forgive me for finding such statements funny. because thats nonsense. the only way it could get to the point that the Russians would cut off the supply is if the west keeps pushing this, increasing the sanctions, and the Russians turn around and say ok enough. at that point it doesnt matter where the gas does or doesnt go. if it happens it wont be coming here. and thats all that matters.

So the truncated version is, you don't know.

Terrific stuff.

Your certain Russia can turn off the taps to Europe, however you've no idea what they will do with the stuff when they do.

All those tens of billions of barrels/cubic metres wasted.
40% of federal income taxes.... Gone.

Would Russia do that?
Of course not.

I'll say it again, Russia can't & won't turn off the gas & oil to spite EU sanctions.

If there is a solid argument as to why Russia will shut off $240+ billion dollars in potential oil & gas revenue at the drop of a hat I'll hear it.

Considering that's a 12% collapse in GDP & about 1/3 in national tax revenue.
The vaunted reserves (largely tied up in cronie companies) can't take the hit.

But, being a 'big picture' guy I'm certain you will show otherwise & that Russia holds all the cards.

AbusesToilets

WakeUp wrote: »

actually it is worry. because you dont want another country in a position to be able to do something like that even if it means pain for them. The Americans and Chinese in the not to distant future are going to be coming into direct conflict of interests in the Asia pacific. thats going to be interesting. so what sort of Russian wrongdoings in Ukraine have I been vehemently denying. and youre going to have to back this one up please,...

Greater interdependence economically is not a negative thing, if anything it can help push countries closer. Countries are more likely to look for diplomatic methods to resolve conflict than military, it also helps open up their societies to one another, promoting understanding and better relations.

WakeUp

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

So the truncated version is, you don't know.

Terrific stuff.

Your certain Russia can turn off the taps to Europe, however you've no idea what they will do with the stuff when they do.

All those tens of billions of barrels/cubic metres wasted.
40% of federal income taxes.... Gone.

Would Russia do that?
Of course not.

I'll say it again, Russia can't & won't turn off the gas & oil to spite EU sanctions.

If there is a solid argument as to why Russia will shut off $240+ billion dollars in potential oil & gas revenue at the drop of a hat I'll hear it.

Considering that's a 12% collapse in GDP & about 1/3 in national tax revenue.
The vaunted reserves (largely tied up in cronie companies) can't take the hit.

But, being a 'big picture' guy I'm certain you will show otherwise & that Russia holds all the cards.

why do they have to do anything with the stuff. they dont. because you think so...you seem to believe the west can do whatever it likes to Russia and the Russians will just suck it up and go thanks for that. thats ridiculous and stating such a thing its hard to take anything else you say seriously. thats what you believe. a solid argument?.. how about sanctions placed upon them by the west with the intention of crippling their economy and bullying them into submission. that solid enough for you.

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Greater interdependence economically is not a negative thing, if anything it can help push countries closer. Countries are more likely to look for diplomatic methods to resolve conflict than military, it also helps open up their societies to one another, promoting understanding and better relations.

that nice. now about your previous accusation of me denying Russian wrong doings in Ukraine, back it up please. thanks.

AbusesToilets

By blaming EU/ NATO have been irresponsible and they, along with the Ukrainian government, have been the instigators of the conflict.

By your constant assertion that there is no point in trying to sanction or take action against Russia, as though they have every right to be attacking neighboring countries.

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

By blaming EU/ NATO have been irresponsible and they, along with the Ukrainian government, have been the instigators of the conflict.

By your constant assertion that there is no point in trying to sanction or take action against Russia, as though they have every right to be attacking neighboring countries.

no you see thats not good enough. youve stated what you stated now back it up. Im denying Russian wrong doings in Ukraine. I want you to back that up with properly. your opinion means phuck all, no offence. back it up please, cheers. and I want specifics.

pablomakaveli

WakeUp wrote: »

no you see thats not good enough. youve stated what you stated now back it up. Im denying Russian wrong doings in Ukraine. I want you to back that up with properly. your opinion means phuck all, no offence. back it up please, cheers. and I want specifics.

Stuff you say like in this post and this one certainly give the impression that you feel Russia is blameless and the Kiev "nazi's" are responsible.

AbusesToilets

From post #2249

I have some American friends bright people and they are actually laughing at us here in Europe, as to how the leaders over here can be so stupid as to be manipulated into a conflict with Russia on behalf of US interests . European leaders should be putting European interests first. and its not in our interests to have conflict with Russia. the Americans and their Nato stooges like the punk raswhatever are now involved in a proxy war with Russia, through Kiev, on Russias border. so Vlad is currently carving out himself a bufferzone in the south and east of Ukraine rightly or wrongly. its the Americans who are driving the sanction war between Europe and Russia. and they dont seem to be suffering from sanctions. both Europe and Russia particularly Europe are feeling them and its going to get worse. do people honestly believe the Americans give a sh1t about us. because they dont. they care about themselves, obviously. they swooped in at the end of world war 2 when Europe lay in rubble and took over. it would be in European interests to have stronger ties with Russia and Asia and that wouldnt be good for the Americans. they are driving a wedge between us and Russia that may never recover and driving us toward war. war between Europe and Russia who benefits. it wont be either us or Russia. thats for sure. maybe Merkel gets it. we shall see

From the Ukraine: As it happens thread:

Post #6567

The Russians dont need to invade Ukraine outright with force all they have to do is wait. everyday Putin rises he walks over to the calendar on his wall and crosses out another day. each tick is a day closer to Winter and the cold. Ukraine have maybe six weeks max before it potentially runs out of coal. half of the coal mines in Donbass arent operational and the railway lines used to transport the coal are damaged. no coal means they wont be able to power their electricity stations. Ukrainian gas storage the reverse supply from Europe and the little they produce themselves is enough to see them through the warmer months. probably not enough for the Winter. no coal no gas could be a quite cold few months ahead for them. and if they are put in a position like that they may end up with no choice but to siphon off some of the gas destined for Europe. Winter is particularly cold in that part of the world.

Post # 6571

So the NYT is reporting that Russia has moved equipment inside Ukrainian territory..they need to do more than quote officials if they are going to run with something like this...you cant just allege something like this and cite "officials".

Post # 5400

Im wondering what the Americans are up too because they are up to something. Why is Ukraine so important to them what could be so important that they have decided on a crazy and insane confrontational path with Russia. Everyone has an angle Russia, Europe, America. The Americans have their own reasons but they dont have the right to sleepwalk the rest of us into a war in pursuit of them. Make no mistake the Americans are on a crazy path its both desperate and crazy what are they up too cui bono.

Just some examples of your viewpoint that the West has caused this conflict.

WakeUp

AbusesToilets wrote: »

From post #2249


From the Ukraine: As it happens thread:

Post #6567


Post # 6571


Post # 5400


Just some examples of your viewpoint that the West has caused this conflict.

my "viewpoint". really thats not good enough. stating that European leaders are being manipulated into conflict with Russia ( sanction war) is denying Russian wrong doings in Ukraine. well actually no that isnt. and saying that Putin doesnt have to invade Ukraine outright all he has to do is wait ( winter ) that isnt denying Russian wrong doings in Ukraine in either. saying the Americans have their own interests for being involved some 6000 miles from their shores. that isnt either. and positing that if a news outlet is going to claim invasion or whatever they would need to do better than citing a "source" that isnt either. youre going to have to do a whole lot better than that Im afraid thats nonsense. back up what you stated please - Im denying Russian wrong doings in Ukraine -. I want specifics that would be claim/counter claim. looks like youve got some reading ahead Id get cracking if I was you. back up what you stated please, I want specifics. cheers.

WakeUp

pablomakaveli wrote: »

Stuff you say like in this post and this one certainly give the impression that you feel Russia is blameless and the Kiev "nazi's" are responsible.

the impression. are you serious. and this is denying Russian wrong doings how..impression:D

wighead
"your honor, the prosecution is under the impression, without backing it up, that the defendant is indeed guilty. the rascal."

overlord
"are you now, guilty it is so"

mmmcake

Looks like Russia is not waiting until new sanctions or winter start, its cut gas to Poland by 20%, gas markets are starting to worry in Europe, just wait for winter, real panic will take hold.
It don't matter if you like it or not, Russia has the winning hand, the population of the EU aint going to freeze this winter for the Ukraine.
Russia knows this, European politicians know this and so does every poster here.
Its over, the Ukraine is gone, nothing the EU can do without angering the EU population, more sanctions=no gas.
No one in the Ukraine can vote for EU politicians, so the EU will drop them before winter to ensure they get votes in their country elections.

pablomakaveli

WakeUp wrote: »

the impression. are you serious. and this is denying Russian wrong doings how..impression:D

wighead
"your honor, the prosecution is under the impression, without backing it up, that the defendant is indeed guilty. the rascal."

overlord
"are you now, guilty it is so"

Ok i phrased that wrong. My bad. You were blatantly blaming the Ukrainians in those posts. Why didn't you acknowledge Russia's part instead of laying complete blame at the door of the "filthy nazi nut job fascists" as you called them?

oscarBravo

So now the narrative is that the EU can't survive without Russian gas, but that the Russian economy can survive indefinitely without gas revenues?

pablomakaveli

Also looks like the Russian soldiers/militia/mercenaries or whatever they are calling themselves are pulling back according to the Ukrainians.

Also promises of special status being granted to the rebel regions though not full independence.Could hopefully be a possibility of peace of some sort in the region.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/10/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0H50YB20140910?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

WakeUp

pablomakaveli wrote: »

Ok i phrased that wrong. My bad. You were blatantly blaming the Ukrainians in those posts. Why didn't you acknowledge Russia's part instead of laying complete blame at the door of the "filthy nazi nut job fascists" as you called them?

here look Pablo if youre going down this road aswell Im going to ask you to back it up too. so blaming not denying but what was I blaming them for? youre going to have to explain that. what exactly have I denied that the Russians have done. Russian wrong doings I mean wtf does that even mean. Ive acknowledged Russian involvement since this started. if you or whoever arent capable of challenging what Im saying in other posts, making things up or going down this road, I will call you out on it. I havent denied Russian involvement in this whole sorry affair, clearly they are involved in it.

WakeUp

oscarBravo wrote: »

So now the narrative is that the EU can't survive without Russian gas, but that the Russian economy can survive indefinitely without gas revenues?

how long do you think the EU economy can survive without Russian energy?..im just curious...