Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

miss tickle

mmmcake wrote: »

Looks like Russia is not waiting until new sanctions or winter start, its cut gas to Poland by 20%, gas markets are starting to worry in Europe, just wait for winter, real panic will take hold.
It don't matter if you like it or not, Russia has the winning hand, the population of the EU aint going to freeze this winter for the Ukraine.
Russia knows this, European politicians know this and so does every poster here.
Its over, the Ukraine is gone, nothing the EU can do without angering the EU population, more sanctions=no gas.
No one in the Ukraine can vote for EU politicians, so the EU will drop them before winter to ensure they get votes in their country elections.

Apparently as a result Poland has had to cut it's supply to Ukraine

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-10/russian-retaliation-begins-gazprom-limiting-eu-gas-cuts-poland-supplies-20-past-two-,

Europe says it has enough stored., but a poster in the comments section has done some research and estimated supply to be around 10 weeks.

oscarBravo

WakeUp wrote: »

how long do you think the EU economy can survive without Russian energy?..im just curious...

I honestly don't know. If it's true that we're so utterly dependent on such an unreliable supplier, I hope this is the incentive we need to get serious about energy independence.

Let me turn the question back on you: what gives you the confidence that Russia can easily cope with a massive loss in its exports, particularly given that the ruble is already suffering badly from the mere uncertainty posed by the possibility of such a loss?

WakeUp

oscarBravo wrote: »

I honestly don't know. If it's true that we're so utterly dependent on such an unreliable supplier, I hope this is the incentive we need to get serious about energy independence.

Let me turn the question back on you: what gives you the confidence that Russia can easily cope with a massive loss in its exports, particularly given that the ruble is already suffering badly from the mere uncertainty posed by the possibility of such a loss?

Im all for alternative sources of energy if there is a way to do it Im for it. but I dont see it not anytime soon. the Russians can handle a short term financial shortfall with their reserves and also because of China. who will be more than happy to help out in return for something. if this is a game of chicken the Russians can outlast us here in Europe. we cant last without their energy. were talking months here not years.

oscarBravo

WakeUp wrote: »

Im all for alternative sources of energy if there is a way to do it Im for it. but I dont see it not anytime soon. the Russians can handle a short term financial shortfall with their reserves and also because of China. who will be more than happy to help out in return for something. if this is a game of chicken the Russians can outlast us here in Europe. we cant last without their energy. were talking months here not years.

You're blithely stating a lot of things as fact without supporting them: that Europe's economy will implode without Russian gas; that the Russian economy (which is imploding at the prospect of sanctions, never mind what will happen when the money stops coming in) is so unbelievably robust that it can survive a massive blow to its exports; that China will for no particularly obvious reason prop up the economy of a country with which it has had some fraught history itself.

All of which is leaving aside the fact that you apparently believe that a country that annexes another should be allowed to do so without consequence unless those consequences are cost-free. I've described this view as moral cowardice; do you deny it?

miss tickle

AbusesToilets wrote: »

That's not a worry though, because dumping debt will crash the Chinese economy. Similarly, the US holds massive amounts of foreign debt.



This cracked me up, given you've been one of the posters most vehemently denying Russia's wrongdoings in the Ukraine.

for the last few years china has been quietly buying lots of gold with its US debt.
In the last two years it has pretty much double its reserves and this does not include what it mines itself.

http://www.munknee.com/china-converting-u-s-debt-holdings-gold-accellerating-rate/,

Also China's official news agency has published an interesting commentary about de-Americanizing the World Economy.

This is an excerpt,

What may also be included as a key part of an effective reform is the introduction of a new international reserve currency that is to be created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States


The whole commentary is at the bottom of the above link.

Icepick

WakeUp wrote: »

how long do you think the EU economy can survive without Russian energy?..im just curious...

much longer than Russia without our money

WakeUp

oscarBravo wrote: »

You're blithely stating a lot of things as fact without supporting them: that Europe's economy will implode without Russian gas; that the Russian economy (which is imploding at the prospect of sanctions, never mind what will happen when the money stops coming in) is so unbelievably robust that it can survive a massive blow to its exports; that China will for no particularly obvious reason prop up the economy of a country with which it has had some fraught history itself.

All of which is leaving aside the fact that you apparently believe that a country that annexes another should be allowed to do so without consequence unless those consequences are cost-free. I've described this view as moral cowardice; do you deny it?

well actually no, im not blithely stating anything I know what Im talking about. do you. and yep without Russian energy the European economy and continent is in serious trouble and so to are the Russians no one wins. I dont care what youve described it as, moral cowardice with all due respect you can ask my boll0x. how about that.

Regarding the prospect of a pan-European natural gas economic shock due to a stop of the flow of Russian gas in Europe, the Institute of Energy Economics of the University of Cologne assessed the following: Finland would be a country first and most harshly affected since 100% of its gas comes from Russia and it does not have substantial storage facilities. An embargo of more than 90 days will strongly impact Poland, Turkey, Germany, Austria, Balkan countries and Baltic states. A nine month stoppage will affect the whole Continent with severe breakdowns of the system, huge amounts of emergency LNG supplies that will skyrocket the prices - and in a global spot market scale. Of course Gazprom would lose its best customer base and the Russian budget will probably suffer a 8-13% decrease in yearly revenues. Nevertheless, should the situation reach that point, it would simply mean a warlike situation in Europe is rooted, thus budgetary considerations will be cast aside by all sides, and history in the region will turn backwards, perhaps one hundred years.

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/the-energy-stakes-of-the-ukrainian-crisis-18883

Gatling

9 months stoppage brings us to may onwards come on the sun ,


Still not one bit worried consider some parts of dublin only got gas heating in the last 6/7 years .

Have to say go away for a few hours and Ukraine goes global all of a sudden

oscarBravo

WakeUp wrote: »

...you can ask my boll0x.

Looks like I touched a nerve.

WakeUp

oscarBravo wrote: »

Looks like I touched a nerve.

well actually no you didnt, it was just a pathetic thing to say or insinuate. it got the answer it deserved.

Markcheese

Like most conflicts a gas one would probably happen in stages,
Europe would introduce a few more sanctions , Russia would reduce the flow of gas,
If Russia puts up the price of gas what are Europe going to do?
Neither can survive without the other but I foresee lots of technical issues and breakdowns over coming winters to test europes systems and resolve,
And I can't see Europe being mercenary or financialy vendictive against Russia,just bumble along and take it.
The dependence on Russian gas and issues of a potentialy beligetant Russia have been commented on for years , and what's the eu done ? Nowt, cos its not what they're geared up for..

oscarBravo

WakeUp wrote: »

well actually no you didnt, it was just a pathetic thing to say or insinuate. it got the answer it deserved.

There's nothing pathetic about it. You are consistently arguing that there should be no consequences for the wrongdoing that you accept Russia is guilty of, because those consequences are not cost-free.

If that's not moral cowardice, would you care to explain why not?

You have pointed out that Russia cutting off the gas to Europe would be damaging to both Russia and Europe. As much as it suits you to claim that the Russian economy is completely immune to severe financial shocks, it's entirely likely that the prospect of such severe economic consequences might predispose Russia to actually think about its imperial adventures. Whereas your proposed course of action - to say to Russia "you can have Ukraine, we don't care" - puts Europe in exactly what kind of bargaining position?

WakeUp

oscarBravo wrote: »

There's nothing pathetic about it. You are consistently arguing that there should be no consequences for the wrongdoing that you accept Russia is guilty of, because those consequences are not cost-free.

If that's not moral cowardice, would you care to explain why not?

You have pointed out that Russia cutting off the gas to Europe would be damaging to both Russia and Europe. As much as it suits you to claim that the Russian economy is completely immune to severe financial shocks, it's entirely likely that the prospect of such severe economic consequences might predispose Russia to actually think about its imperial adventures. Whereas your proposed course of action - to say to Russia "you can have Ukraine, we don't care" - puts Europe in exactly what kind of bargaining position?

I dont have to explain anything to you. when people on this thread cant challenge reality ad hominem ensues. phuck that you know that way. sanctions are not going to work it doesnt matter what I think of them they arent going to work. but more sanctions and all that. because that is going to solve the situation. but you see it wont.

oscarBravo

WakeUp wrote: »

I dont have to explain anything to you. when people on this thread cant challenge reality ad hominem ensues. phuck that you know that way. sanctions are not going to work it doesnt matter what I think of them they arent going to work. but more sanctions and all that. because that is going to solve the situation. but you see it wont.

It would be so much easier to discuss this with you if you didn't keep going off on semi-coherent tangents.

It's all very well to say "sanctions won't work" like it's an article of faith, but as I've pointed out to you before, your entire argument is based on the premise that telling Russia that we have no problem with it annexing its neighbours is a strategy that couldn't possibly have any negative consequences.

If you were in charge of Europe, your message to Russia would be "you are stronger than us; you hold all the cards; there is nothing we could possibly do to cause you any problems - on that basis, would you mind not invading any more of your neighbours, pretty please?"

What's truly baffling to me is that you can't seem to see how this kowtowing could in any way whatsoever be anything other than the correct approach to dealing with Russia.

WakeUp

oscarBravo wrote: »

It would be so much easier to discuss this with you if you didn't keep going off on semi-coherent tangents.

It's all very well to say "sanctions won't work" like it's an article of faith, but as I've pointed out to you before, your entire argument is based on the premise that telling Russia that we have no problem with it annexing its neighbours is a strategy that couldn't possibly have any negative consequences.

If you were in charge of Europe, your message to Russia would be "you are stronger than us; you hold all the cards; there is nothing we could possibly do to cause you any problems - on that basis, would you mind not invading any more of your neighbours, pretty please?"

What's truly baffling to me is that you can't seem to see how this kowtowing could in any way whatsoever be anything other than the correct approach to dealing with Russia.

it would appear you only want to "discuss" things when it suits you. where do the sanctions end? when Russia backs down? where do they end...

BoJack Horseman

oscarBravo wrote: »

It would be so much easier to discuss this with you if you didn't keep going off on semi-coherent tangents.

It's all very well to say "sanctions won't work" like it's an article of faith, but as I've pointed out to you before, your entire argument is based on the premise that telling Russia that we have no problem with it annexing its neighbours is a strategy that couldn't possibly have any negative consequences.

If you were in charge of Europe, your message to Russia would be "you are stronger than us; you hold all the cards; there is nothing we could possibly do to cause you any problems - on that basis, would you mind not invading any more of your neighbours, pretty please?"

What's truly baffling to me is that you can't seem to see how this kowtowing could in any way whatsoever be anything other than the correct approach to dealing with Russia.

You aren't seeing the big picture though.

Don't ask me what that's supposed to mean, but apparently its the case.

Gatling

WakeUp wrote: »

it would appear you only want to "discuss" things when it suits you. where do the sanctions end? when Russia backs down? where do they end...

Just answered your own question there ,

Russia's complete withdrawal of all military equipment and service personal

Ukraine allowed to enjoy its freedom been a sovereign nation and allowed to decide its own destiny

oscarBravo

WakeUp wrote: »

it would appear you only want to "discuss" things when it suits you.

...says the person who refuses point-blank to acknowledge that his avowed strategy of rolling over and showing Russia our belly could possibly have any downsides.

WakeUp

oscarBravo wrote: »

...says the person who refuses point-blank to acknowledge that his avowed strategy of rolling over and showing Russia our belly could possibly have any downsides.

and who said we should that. you assume that. im saying attempting to sanction Russia in the belief that it will force their hand wont work. Im also saying it isnt a smart thing to be doing sanctioning the very energy companies we rely on to supply with us with energy. how is that a smart move....

oscarBravo

WakeUp wrote: »

and who said we should that. you assume that. im saying attempting to sanction Russia in the belief that it will force their hand wont work. Im also saying it isnt a smart thing to be doing sanctioning the very energy companies we rely on to supply with us with energy. how is that a smart move....

So what consequences should we impose on Russia for its belligerent behaviour towards its neighbours?

WakeUp

Gatling wrote: »

Just answered your own question there ,

Russisa complete withdrawal of all military equipment and service personal

Ukraine allowed to enjoy its freedom been a sovereign nation and allowed to decide its own destiny

complete withdrawal from where?..and what if the Russians dont play along to this all knowing and wise strategy..the strategy is dependent on them caving in..what if they dont..

Gatling

WakeUp wrote: »

complete withdrawal from where?..and what if the Russians dont play along to this all knowing and wise strategy..the strategy is dependent on them caving in..what if they dont..

Ukraine

Well then you keep ramping up go after Russian money in London /new york cyprus any where there making spending waves ,

They close Russian airspace

Then Europe and NATO closes its airspace ,

Then go after naval shipping if need be

WakeUp

oscarBravo wrote: »

So what consequences should we impose on Russia for its belligerent behaviour towards its neighbours?

Ukraine is not a member of the EU or Nato..why is it up to us impose sanctions upon Russia..why? I already asked you that a number of pages back along with some other things which you never bothered replying too..maybe you will this time..

WakeUp

Gatling wrote: »

Ukraine do keep up

but which part?..south,east, Crimea..where?...

oscarBravo

WakeUp wrote: »

Ukraine is not a member of the EU or Nato..why is it up to us impose sanctions upon Russia..why? I already asked you that a number of pages back along with some other things which you never bothered replying too..maybe you will this time..

So despite hotly denying that your avowed strategy is to do nothing whatsoever, your avowed strategy is, in fact, to do nothing whatsoever?

comongethappy

oscarBravo wrote: »

...says the person who refuses point-blank to acknowledge that his avowed strategy of rolling over and showing Russia our belly could possibly have any downsides.

3% of the global economy is apparently greater than the 60% of the West.

Ergo whatever country Vlad has his eye on next just has to submit.... Because Vlad holds all the cards.

It seems appeasing tyrant is easier.

Gatling

WakeUp wrote: »

but which part?..south,east, Crimea..where?...

All Ukraine then allow the Ukrainian people decide a referendum on Crimea and the the use of the port for the black sea fleet that should have happened 10 years ago

WakeUp

Gatling wrote: »

Ukraine

Well then you keep ramping up go after Russian money in London /new york cyprus any where there making spending waves ,

They close Russian airspace

Then Europe and NATO closes its airspace ,

Then go after naval shipping if need be

keep ramping up until what point? what does go after naval shipping mean?...

WakeUp

oscarBravo wrote: »

So despite hotly denying that your avowed strategy is to do nothing whatsoever, your avowed strategy is, in fact, to do nothing whatsoever?

why dont you explain to me first of all why it is up to the EU and Nato to take Russia to task? why dont you explain that to me..why?...

Gatling

WakeUp wrote: »

keep ramping up until what point? what does go after naval shipping mean?...

Exactly what it means block acces to ports and sieze ships currently docked in ports ,