Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

Gatling

Count Dooku wrote: »

Guy from UNCHR said about 800K refugees fled "to Russia", not "through Russia". If you don't see the difference, then explain why loyal to Kiev ethnic ukrainians would stay in "country-aggressor"?

According to a newspaper report not UN figures

gandalf

Looks like the sanctions are really beginning to bite and now oil prices are weak as well which is a double whammy for the Russian federal revenue stream.

Russia's ruble currency hit a new low against the dollar on Monday, hit by falling oil prices and a decision by the central bank not to raise interest rates despite investor concern over the economic effect of the Ukraine crisis.

Russian assets took a beating last week after the United States and European Union imposed new sanctions over Moscow's role in the separatist conflict in Ukraine, further limiting access to foreign capital for some of Russia's top companies.

In the first hour of trading on Monday, the ruble fell to a new all-time low of 38.00 rubles per dollar. By 0900 GMT it had extended losses to trade 0.81 percent weaker against the dollar at 38.09 and 0.55 percent lower at 49.21 versus the euro.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/ruble-hits-new-low-against-weaker-oil-and-russian-central-bank-decision/507063.html

Another interesting article from Forbes. It concludes with the following paragraph. The question is will Putin sell Russia's future energy resources to the Chinese at a fraction of their worth to try and "triumph" in the Ukraine?

It is too early to decide the winners and losers from Russia’s War of Southeast Ukraine. One winner, however, is clear. China has the cash to pick up Russia’s crown jewels at bargain basement prices. If we look down the road, we must ask: How much of the natural riches of Siberia will belong to China ten or twenty years from now? China probably has a better answer to this question than we do.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/09/14/as-the-sanctions-noose-tightens-china-grabs-russian-energy-assets-at-bargain-prices/

WakeUp

sanctions are a two way street Gandalf the Russians will reply. If Putin decides to turn off the gas tap, notice how the sanctions are targeting oil, Europe will have no choice but to back down. and this crisis will be over as far as we are concerned from a sanction point of view. the US would be on their own.

The new penalties “risk spinning the wheel of retaliatory sanctions from Russia even stronger, which complicates the search for a diplomatic solution to the crisis,” Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States at ING Groep NV in Moscow, said in an e-mailed note. “Tactically the market still stands against the ruble, and I see no sense opposing it.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-15/ruble-drops-to-record-after-ukraine-sanctions-as-crude-slides.html

Ukraine outrage over delay on EU trade deal:

KIEV) - Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko faces a strong backlash from some of his staunchest supporters for bowing to Russian pressure and postponing the implementation of an EU trade pact which is due to be ratified Tuesday.

Several of them have warned the decision to delay the ex-Soviet state's economic tilt westward could spark a repeat of the EuroMaidan protests that toppled Kremlin-backed Viktor Yanukovych earlier this year, after he rejected the same deal.

"I am speechless," central Dnipropetrovsk region deputy governor Svyatoslav Oliynik wrote in a Facebook post.

"The last time this happened, we had EuroMaidan."

And Deputy Foreign Minister Danylo Lubkivsky, submitting his resignation in protest, said Poroshenko was sending "the wrong signal to everyone: the aggressor (Russia), our allies and, most importantly, the citizens of Ukraine."

But most analysts agree the threat of a furious Russia unleashing crippling trade restrictions on Ukraine that would sink its economy even further had left the staunchly pro-Western leader with little choice.

"The current state of the Ukrainian economy is such that the shocks (of Russian trade sanctions) dealt some industries such as engineering would simply be too much for the country to bear," incoming EU Commission vice president Valdis Dombrovskis told Kiev's Evropeiska Pravda news site.

http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/ukraine-russia.xtr?

gandalf

Wakeup I don't believe Putin has the financial wiggle room to turn off the gas tap for any extended period of time. It will certainly result in severe short term problems for Gazprom that could end up being terminal. How will things look if a percentage or if all their employees are laid off, you're talking about up to half a million workers if you believe the employee numbers from some sources for Gazprom.

Now with oil prices on a downward spiral the Russian Federation cannot afford any more hits to it Revenue. Remember they now have to back up the promises made to all the inhabitants of the Crimea with regard to pensions and state company wages.

And don't forget if he does turn off the gas tap it will logically initiate more reaction in even more punitive sanctions from Europe.

gandalf

With regard to your second link Wakeup. Very surprised at Poroshenko delaying the EU deal given the original protests were what kicked off this whole crisis. It makes you wonder what did Putin say to him on those calls. I have a feeling it involved the threat of a lot more Russian boots on Ukrainian soil.

BoJack Horseman

gandalf wrote: »

With regard to your second link Wakeup. Very surprised at Poroshenko delaying the EU deal given the original protests were what kicked off this whole crisis. It makes you wonder what did Putin say to him on those calls. I have a feeling it involved the threat of a lot more Russian boots on Ukrainian soil.

It was the EU delegation an Minsk that threw Ukraine under the bus there.
They offered the delay to Putin (thus validating his interference in another sovereign nations affairs) as an act of faith

Porshenko had no choice but to go along with it.
His army is bested, his nations economy in ruins..... He's practically a bystander now.

gandalf

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

It was the EU delegation an Minsk that threw Ukraine under the bus there.
They offered the delay to Putin (thus validating his interference in another sovereign nations affairs) as an act of faith

Porshenko had no choice but to go along with it.
His army is bested, his nations economy in ruins..... He's practically a bystander now.

Bugger I missed that one. That might blow up in all their faces (literally!).

BoJack Horseman

gandalf wrote: »

Bugger I missed that one. That might blow up in all their faces (literally!).

The Guardian wrote:

Moscow has threatened to block Ukrainian goods to Russia if Kiev lowers trade barriers with Europe. The European Union (EU) said it would allow Ukraine to maintain its current tariffs until early 2016, but it would still have to undertake major economic and political reform required by the agreement.

- So Ukrainian trade to the EU remains as costly.
- Ukraine still has to "reform" (ie: sell the family silver).
- Putin sees that he can interfere with the trade affairs of other nations with complete appeasement

Well done Barosso.

Busted Flat.

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

- So Ukrainian trade to the EU remains as costly.
- Ukraine still has to "reform" (ie: sell the family silver).
- Putin sees that he can interfere with the trade affairs of other nations with complete appeasement

Well done Barosso.

The EU does not need another basket case. The clowns in the EU,NATO and US that pushed Ukraine to the edge should be dismissed from the positions that they are in. Obviously they are not intelligent enough to carry out their tasks. We had the same sort of thing in Georgia, some years back, that loolagh is on the run now.

oscarBravo

Busted Flat. wrote: »

The clowns in the EU,NATO and US that pushed Ukraine to the edge should be dismissed from the positions that they are in.

By whom?

conditioned games

gandalf wrote: »

Wakeup I don't believe Putin has the financial wiggle room to turn off the gas tap for any extended period of time. It will certainly result in severe short term problems for Gazprom that could end up being terminal. How will things look if a percentage or if all their employees are laid off, you're talking about up to half a million workers if you believe the employee numbers from some sources for Gazprom.

They have just opened a major gas pipeline to china. I think russia and gazprom will do ok if forced to stop sending their gas to europe. They have a new market now that dont do what the US tells them to do.

Gatling

conditioned games wrote: »

They have just opened a major gas pipeline to china. I think russia and gazprom will do ok if forced to stop sending their gas to europe. They have a new market now that dont do what the US tells them to do.

Hasn't been built yet

gandalf

conditioned games wrote: »

They have just opened a major gas pipeline to china. I think russia and gazprom will do ok if forced to stop sending their gas to europe. They have a new market now that dont do what the US tells them to do.

Ah they are only starting to build the pipeline.

Construction of the Russian part of the pipeline started in eastern Siberia this month. The pipeline will take years to complete, but from 2018, some 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas will reach China every year.

http://english.cntv.cn/2014/09/12/ARTI1410528494066177.shtml

So four years before they can export any gas to the Chinese. Gazprom wouldn't last four weeks without European Gas revenue let alone four years.

cerastes

Maybe the Russians are into long range weather forecasting?
I hear there will be a cold winter ahead? turning off the gas taps might have a more immediate effect if the consequences are felt more severely or rapidly, unless everyone is stocking up on coal, I read somewhere Ukraine was.

Might be a tool to bring people to negotiations, rather than tit for tat penalties.

Markcheese

"So four years before they can export any gas to the Chinese. Gazprom wouldn't last four weeks without European Gas revenue let alone four years."


True , but the gas won't be turned off all in one go , there'll be technical problems with one plant limiting supply to say Poland ,( like now) then maybe a supply to the Finns would go down (it's no wonder the Finns are investing In nuclear ) ...
They don't need to turn off all the gas , just ratchet up the pressure ... What's Europe gong to do buy elsewhere ??

gandalf

A very good opinion piece in the Moscow Times about the real reasons for Russia's aggression towards the Ukraine.

This quote sums up my thoughts on the basis for the whole situation in the Ukraine at the moment.

Russians and Ukrainians are ethnically, religiously and linguistically close, enabling tight family and friendship linkages to exist between Russia and Ukraine. Democratic change in brotherly Ukraine could therefore spread to Russia, a development the Kremlin is now doing its best to prevent.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/ukraine-s-crisis-is-not-the-west-s-fault/507100.html

gandalf

Markcheese wrote: »

"So four years before they can export any gas to the Chinese. Gazprom wouldn't last four weeks without European Gas revenue let alone four years."


True , but the gas won't be turned off all in one go , there'll be technical problems with one plant limiting supply to say Poland ,( like now) then maybe a supply to the Finns would go down (it's no wonder the Finns are investing In nuclear ) ...
They don't need to turn off all the gas , just ratchet up the pressure ... What's Europe gong to do buy elsewhere ??

If the Russians go down that route then Europe should be fine. From reports last week it seems that most of Europe should be able to weather a scenario like that.

The European Union’s 28 member states have been stockpiling gas in record quantities as they prepare for the possibility that Russia may turn off the tap that provides a vital energy lifeline to the continent. And for the first time ever, Europe’s collective storage tanks are almost full – containing almost 80 billion cubic metres of gas – almost a fifth of the bloc’s yearly useage.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/fear-over-russian-gas-switchoff-sees-eu-states-stockpile-supplies-9727466.html

If the Russians start behaving like that then the most likely result will be more sanctions against them damaging their teetering economy even further.

The Ukraine itself will be the one country that will be effected the worst. It is going to be interesting to see if the EU will be able to provide the Ukraine with Energy resources over the winter or not if the Russians decide to keep their tap turned off.

InTheTrees

Markcheese wrote: »

True , but the gas won't be turned off all in one go , there'll be technical problems with one plant limiting supply to say Poland ,( like now) then maybe a supply to the Finns would go down (it's no wonder the Finns are investing In nuclear ) ...

Still stuck in the 1950's arent they?

Contrived unreliability and inefficiency probably worked well back then. Now it just drives the targets of such a tactic to make other arrangements over time. We're not idiots in the west.

Why any sane company would want anything to do with Putins Russia is a mystery and he's rapidly creating a third world business environment.

Markcheese

Yeah but he'll be "re-elected" no bother , and he's still got his gas to sell ..
A lot of western companies are leaving/ being squeased out,

conditioned games

gandalf wrote: »

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/ukraine-s-crisis-is-not-the-west-s-fault/507100.html

I hope that is not the same Democratic change you are referring to in Ukraine where half of the county want to be independent but if they vote for independence such as the 2 regions in Ukraine this year did they come under attack from east Ukraine with weapons the USA are supplying them.

Gatling

conditioned games wrote: »

I hope that is not the same Democratic change you are referring to in Ukraine where half of the county want to be independent but if they vote for independence such as the 2 regions in Ukraine this year did they come under attack from east Ukraine with weapons the USA are supplying them.

You mean half the country that had no issue been ukraine suddenly Vladimir putin and his merry bunch of former KGB officials got involved and armed so called separatists and invaded

gandalf

conditioned games wrote: »

I hope that is not the same Democratic change you are referring to in Ukraine where half of the county want to be independent but if they vote for independence such as the 2 regions in Ukraine this year did they come under attack from east Ukraine with weapons the USA are supplying them.

Hang on a minute. Has there been an actual independent vote. The answer is no.

From what I have seen and read a group of armed mercenaries of dubious origin (Russia) seize buildings and territory in a sovereign country. The legitimate army of that country attempts to retake the areas as they must, when they are on the cusp of defeating the mercenaries a foreign army (Russia) invades and props up this "uprising" or what Vladimir Putin calls foreign policy :rolleyes:.

BoJack Horseman

conditioned games wrote: »

I hope that is not the same Democratic change you are referring to in Ukraine where half of the county want to be independent but if they vote for independence such as the 2 regions in Ukraine this year did they come under attack from east Ukraine with weapons the USA are supplying them.

No such political mandate exists & never has.

Gatling

Looks like Ukrainian MP's voted to ratify closer ties with the EU . This could get very interesting over the next few day .
Russia is sending more troops to secure the Crimea too

http://news.sky.com/story/1336844/ukraine-ratifies-eu-pact-amid-fragile-ceasefire

Count Dooku

Gatling wrote: »

You mean half the country that had no issue been ukraine suddenly Vladimir putin and his merry bunch of former KGB officials got involved and armed so called separatists and invaded

This is what pro-Kiev propaganda says and what you want to believe
Just piece of information about where rebels got so much of outdated guns like SKS, RPD and PTRS
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/24/protesters-ukraine-weapons-cache-mine

Busted Flat.

Some posters on here are an insult to ordinary peoples intelligence. It is like they get their information from the Tiger or the Hotspur, or maybe Fox cartoon news.

gandalf

Count Dooku wrote: »

This is what pro-Kiev propaganda says and what you want to believe
Just piece of information about where rebels got so much of outdated guns like SKS, RPD and PTRS
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/24/protesters-ukraine-weapons-cache-mine

Things have moved on a lot since April.

On the last day of May, a surface-to-air rocket was signed out of a military base near Moscow where it had been stored for more than 20 years.

According to the ornate Cyrillic handwriting in the weapon’s Russian Defense Ministry logbook, seen by Reuters, the portable rocket, for use with an Igla rocket launcher, was destined for a base in Rostov, some 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. In that area, say U.S. officials, lies a camp for training Ukrainian separatist fighters.

Three weeks later the rocket and its logbook turned up in eastern Ukraine, where government troops seized them from pro-Russian separatists.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/weapons-used-by-ukraines-rebels-point-toward-russian-origins/504235.html

Elmer Blooker

Count Dooku wrote: »

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/24/protesters-ukraine-weapons-cache-mine

"I stand for order, I don't want fascists to come and use our weapons against us," said one of the men, Semyon Khodakovsky, who served with the Berkut riot police during violent clashes at the Euromaidan protests that ousted President Viktor Yanukovich, a Donetsk native. "Everyone knows a fascist movement has seized power in Kiev … they're afraid to stick their nose in here without weapons."

They fear that weapons in the cache will go to arm the national guard announced last month by the acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, or worse yet to the dreaded Right Sector militias that have become a kind of bogeyman in eastern Ukraine.

How times change. The Guardian has gone from informative articles like this one giving the opinions of anti coup Russians to downright lies and faking Russian "invasions" in less than five months.
These rebels are an inconvenient truth. The lying western media now pretends that the anti coup resistance doesn't exist as the fighting in eastern Ukraine has been "started" by invading Russians.
Most people are too blind to see through propaganda but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

gandalf

Or Elmer maybe as more investigations were carried out as time went by it became apparent who was behind the "Rebel" movement in Eastern Ukraine and the Guardian and all other non-Kremlin censored news outlets have reported this.

conditioned games

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/the-russian-empire-strikes-back

Another article saying how the bullying USA wont get their way this time. I like how the US didn’t impose sanctions on Russian nuclear fuel, which just happens to power 10% of all American homes.