Ukraine on the brink of civil war. Mod Warning in OP.

Count Dooku

SeanW wrote: »

Hah. I'm fairly sure that any war crimes committed by Ukranians in the defense of their country are in the ha-penny place compared to those of the Russians. And exaggerated/fabricated by the Kremlin.

This is how western propaganda is trying to present because policy of silencing crimes of Kiev doesn't work well and information is still leaking
If you will look for sources different from Irish Independent and other propaganda outlets, you will be surprised how picture is different from what is western media are trying to present
You don't need to jump into Russia Today, you can easily find yourself in internet videos about crimes of Ukrainian army, which local people made

robindch

Count Dooku wrote: »

This is how western propaganda is trying to present because policy of silencing crimes of Kiev doesn't work well and information is still leaking. If you will look for sources different from Irish Independent and other propaganda outlets, you will be surprised how picture is different from what is western media are trying to present. You don't need to jump into Russia Today, you can easily find yourself in internet videos about crimes of Ukrainian army, which local people made

That's a good example right here of what that video discussion above was talking about - vague references to nonspecific propaganda, imputation of anti-Russian sentiment, unspecified "crimes" of the administration in Kiev, presentation of "western media" as unified.

Again, the point is not to inform or reach a mutually-agreed consensus concerning what has happened, or is likely to happen, but a mishmash of nonspecific themes which add nothing to any reasonable debate.

Aidric

robindch wrote: »

And here's an investigation by The Interpreter into Ireland's Brian|Brian McDonald|MacDonald:

http://www.interpretermag.com/life-of-bryan-how-an-rt-columnist-tries-to-influence-the-debate-on-russia-and-ukraine/

That's a very good piece of journalism. I have been following Mr McDonalds contributions to the Ukraine situation on twitter and noted a marked indignance towards contributors who didn't tow a pro Russian line.

gandalf

Its amazing this conflict seems to have given birth to a whole new generation of Lord Haw-haw's.

mmmcake

Russia aint pulling punches any more.

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/23341

Crimea is Russian forever

Russia will never become an EU colony

Russia will never bow to terrorists ( supported by outside forces)

Russia won’t follow the Yugoslav scenario of disintegration and dismemberment.

War against Russia just as it did not work for Hitler with his people-hating ideas, who set out to destroy Russia and push us back beyond the Urals. Everyone should remember how it ended.

Then we have
www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-05/ron-paul-warns-reckless-congress-just-declared-war-russia
(its too long to quote, but worth the read)

looks like the new cold war is over, how long before it get hot?

WakeUp

H Res 758 , if it wasnt so serious in what it might be angling at and what it pertains too would actually be funny. because the Americans cant be serious with some of its content. even if the putin is guilty as charged as outlined therein. the first paragraph..

Strongly condemning the actions of the Russian Federation,
under President Vladimir Putin, which has carried out
a policy of aggression against neighboring countries
aimed at political and economic domination.

and this..

Whereas the Russian Federation has used and is continuing
to use coercive economic measures, including the manipulation
of energy prices and supplies, as well as trade restrictions,
to place political and economic pressure on

I mean, really.

and if anyone was still in any doubt as to the empires position vis a vis the federation and Ukraine then this should clarify it.

Whereas the reestablishment of peace and security in
Ukraine requires the full withdrawal of Russian forces
from Ukrainian territory, the resumption of the government’s
control over all of the country’s international borders,
the disarming of the separatist and paramilitary
forces in the east, an end to Russia’s use of its energy
exports and trade barriers to apply economic and political
pressure, and an end to Russian interference in
Ukraine’s internal affairs;

Resolved, That the House of Representatives—

(5) calls on the Russian Federation to reverse
its illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula, to
end its support of the separatist forces in Crimea,
and to remove its military forces from that region
other than those operating in strict accordance with
its 1997 agreement on the Status and Conditions of
the Black Sea Fleet Stationing on the Territory of
Ukraine;

see this is interesting as when putin tells barry along with the house of representative and whoever else would care to listen, to kindly eat his balls this is isnt going to happen, then what.
https://www.congress.gov/113/bills/hres758/BILLS-113hres758ih.pdf

the throes of an empire maniacs and simpletons abound chaos usually ensues thereafter. dangerous times.

BoJack Horseman

WakeUp wrote: »

the throes of an empire maniacs and simpletons abound chaos usually ensues thereafter.

As accurate a description of the court of czar Putin as any.

Btw, after scores of posts telling us that (to paraphrase), the economic might if Russia would weather & crush the west?

How is that going so far?

WakeUp

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

As accurate a description of the court of czar Putin as any.

Btw, after scores of posts telling us that (to paraphrase), the economic might if Russia would weather & crush the west?

How is that going so far?

I think youre exaggerating with your paraphrasing here. though if you can show me these scores of posts of mine where I stated the economic might of Russia would "crush the west" so on I will stand corrected. the flip side of that statement is that the putin and Russia was going to fold as a result of sanctions/bullying etc a flight of fancy if ever there was one . but he still has Crimea and eastern Ukraine is full of rebels how is the American/EU save the Ukraine/whales/freedom working out for them. not to well I would think and it wont be changing anytime soon. if we are to believe Ukrainian military reports putin has moved some iskanders into Crimea. annex the place then move your tactical nukes into position. good luck trying to take that back of them isnt going to happen. ever. the EU/Americans have apparently defeated/hurt the Russians by eh making them cancel the south stream pipeline or so western media would have us believe which is nonsense. now that energy is heading to Turkey and Asia. smooth move guys really smooth. Russian future growth markets are in Asia not Europe or America. south stream heading to Turkey will have geopolitical ramifications that I dont even think some of the simpletons in power on this continent can even begin to understand yet. once again dumb ass stupid EU sanctions at the behest of the americans have backfired which will become very apparent in the years and decades ahead. the eu energy third party strategy is looking a bit silly now. more sanctions and threats like that US house resolution are needed to bring Russia to heel. forget about the bigger picture threats is where its at. because they are working right. not in the long term they wont. the russians know world oil prices are being manipulated to hurt them and the ruble. thats a seriously dangerous game to be playing with them opec and the saudis should proceed with caution .and they are thinking in zero sum terms just like the americans. they will weather whatever it is that is thrown at them because they have no choice they have to. its game on.

gandalf

Well maybe the Russians should stop invading their neighbours and pull their forces out. I reckon Putin had gambled that the sanctions would have crumbled by now and that gamble has blown up in his face.

WakeUp

Ukraine may well be bankrupt in a couple of months and their IMF bailout is on the verge of collapse. all the Russians have to do now is wait which is what they are doing. and Putin has really thrown a spanner in the works by re-routing south stream to Turkey the implications of this are massive the Turks all of a sudden have just become a lot more powerful its going to transform them. that energy will now be piped entirely to Turkey and whatever amount the eu had factored in going forward for a start will have to be revised and resourced somewhere else because it wont be coming here. Turks will take what they need and set up their own distribution hub to southern-Europe via Greece. now Turkey will become a major gas distribution hub to the EU this is going to have far reaching consequences for all sorts of things they have always been seen as a reliable transit country east to west independent of Russia energy coming from the caspian basin and central asia bypassing Russia completely. the EU/Americans never figured or imagined that the Turks would formulate a policy independent of the west which is what they have now done. it changes a lot of things and will have a massive impact in the balance of power. in favour of turkey. well done dumb ass eu diplomats take a bow you phuckwits. whatever you think about putin and the Russians hes playing the game and playing it well. now the Turks will have serious clout in and over EU countries clout they didnt and could never have had before without this deal.

AbusesToilets

Paragraphs man...

WakeUp

knock yourself out. why dont you make up/fabricate a couple for me there. thats your level, good lad.

Black Swan

AbusesToilets wrote: »

Paragraphs man...

WakeUp wrote: »

knock yourself out. why dont you make up/fabricate a couple for me there. thats your level, good lad.

MOD REMINDER: Both these posts were below standards and threatened to derail thread with a potential flaming match. Please focus on the content, not on writing style or getting too personal with each other.

WakeUp

save Ukraine/freedom is jeopardising the energy security of Europe in the years ahead. the Ukrainians have always played on their roll as a transit country for their own benefits and it was not only in our interests but the Russians to cut them out of the picture which is what south stream was intended to do. according to the Russians once south stream is up and running with Turkey Ukraine in their words will be "nullified" as a transit country for their energy. can none of our diplomats see whats going on here or what it means going forward. too busy jumping through hoops and doing what they are told by Washington to see what sits beyond the trees. wonder in the years to come will they believe its worth it. it isnt and wont be.

___________________________________________________________________________

Cold Turkey : Ankara buckles against Western Pressure Turns to Russia:

Russia has abandoned the troubled South Stream project and will now be building its replacement with Turkey. This monumental decision signals that Ankara has made its choice to reject Euro-Atlanticsm and embrace Eurasian integration.

In what may possibly be the biggest move towards multipolarity thus far, the ultimate Eurasian pivot, Turkey, has done away with its former Euro-Atlantic ambitions. A year ago, none of this would have been foreseeable, but the absolute failure of the US’ Mideast policy and the EU’s energy one made this stunning reversal possible in under a year. Turkey is still anticipated to have some privileged relations with the West, but the entire nature of the relationship has forever changed as the country officially engages in pragmatic multipolarity.

Turkey’s leadership made a major move by sealing such a colossal deal with Russia in such a sensitive political environment, and the old friendship can never be restored (nor do the Turks want it to be). The reverberations are truly global.

Meanwhile, the EU totally fudged its energy policy with Russia. As a result of the Ukraine Crisis, it began exerting tremendous pressure (which was already building up) on the South Stream project, calling upon EU energy legislation clauses to state that its member states’ cooperation with Russia was illegal. Poorer countries like Bulgaria pleaded for the EU to allow the project, emphasizing how important it was for their national economies (which haven’t received much of Brussels’ largesse since joining), but to no avail, as the EU stonewalled the project. Russia had no choice but to find a replacement route and saw that the only viable stand-in was Turkey, which just so happened to be undergoing its most serious crisis ever with the US.

The announcement of the New South Stream has global implications, but here’s just a few of them as arranged by region:

The EU will now have to pay for expensive LNG (on average 30% higher) that will likely be sold from the terminal at the Greek-Turkish border as well as remain energy dependent on risky Ukrainian routes. But there’s a catch – the poor Balkan South-Stream-300x160countries are able to get in on the deal by building relatively cheaper overland connecting lines and resurrect the project…but only if they leave the EU and its authoritative energy legislation. All that it takes is for Greece or Bulgaria to abandon Brussels (which doesn’t seem improbable), and the project can either go through Macedonia en route to Serbia or via Bulgaria as initially planned, then up to the Hungarian border. At this point, it’s certainly a tantalizing thought for the countries that have paid the most for their ‘integration’ and received scarcely anything in return. Expect the New South Stream to politically divide the EU like never before.

Most significantly, Turkey has shown that it has the political grit to make historical decisions independent of NATO, showing that it is embracing its pivotal geography and combining it with a multipolar policy. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (importantly encompassing Russia and China) just outlined the specific procedures for admitting new members a few months ago, although at the time analysts thought this was directed towards India and Pakistan.

Now, however, with Turkey already being a dialogue partner, it might make the rapid step to observer status and full-fledged membership just as quickly as it made its decisive pivot. There’s also been talk of the country entering into a free-trade agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union, so it might incidentally find its EU replacement with Brussels’ eastern adversary, Moscow.

http://orientalreview.org/2014/12/02/cold-turkey-ankara-buckles-against-western-pressure-turns-to-russia/

nice friends those Turks. who needs enemies with "friends" like that. if the deal comes to fruition then putin just handed them a key of sorts and leverage over the continent whilst doing their own thing. bravo eu diplomats. bravo.

Larbre34

Turkey were clearly left under no illusion that their EU aspirations did not reconcile with actual EU values. Many EU states open said they weren't wanted, so I wouldnt blame them for looking elsewhere. If they leave NATO though it would be a very uncertain future.

But at the end of it all, the EU and US hold all the cards. Russia and for that matter China and India are churning away within their own economies and exploiting and consuming energy, but they offer cheap and transient products. All of the real innovation, the quality science and R&D along with the ownership of the big world industries and most of the capital are in the West.

The BRICS are nothing if the West arent taking their product, be that Oil and Gas they have no capacity to store or alternative market, or minerals and metals which they need western money to be viable.

As has been written elsewhere in the last few days, Putin is having to use the Western sanctions to mask the fundametal internal difficulties in their own economy

WakeUp

Turkey leaving nato would open up all sorts of problems and permutations to many to list or go into any detail its probably for another thread. but if they really are shifting and attempting a realignment it has to be considered and factored in as a possible reality in the future.

I just dont see how the US/Europe are holding all the cards in this situation I just dont see it and Im a little bemused at the portrayal of south stream cancellation as some sort of victory for the west that doesnt make any sense it just doesnt. Ive read what has been written aswell by some and to me its just nonsense because it doesnt tie in with the realities on the ground. the long term energy security of the continent looks grim and is at risk as the Russians can and will find alternative markets for the energy even if it means trading well below the standard. innovation, science, research, industry I would agree with you the west is ahead when it comes to these things but for them to grow and continue and for them to happen you need energy. short to medium term there is no viable cost effective alternative to Russian energy the EU doesnt have one we need it is just how it is. without energy - russian energy - industry and such things will have problems major ones at that so I fail to see how its us here in Europe that are holding all the cards.

If the deal with Turkey comes to pass and Ukraine is nullified as a transit country as the Russians have threatened ( Russia refuses to ship energy to the EU via their pipelines ) in about 3-5 years time the continent will have an energy crisis on our hands of a magnitude not yet seen. Europe or parts of the EU particularly the south-east dont have a reliable stable supply of energy now or going forward for the next ten years at least because there is no alternative in place or ones that are thought to be viable and perhaps in the works as far advanced as south stream was. and thats if they even make economic sense. a lot can happen in a decade especially if parts of the continent are paying 30% above the price they are use to paying for energy. that cant work. the eu energy third party strategy what they envisaged as a solution/security was always about in the main gazprom. and within that always about south stream. and now its heading to Turkey.

Dannyboy83

WakeUp wrote: »

Ukraine may well be bankrupt in a couple of months and their IMF bailout is on the verge of collapse. all the Russians have to do now is wait which is what they are doing.

Russian CDS reached above 402 and the implied 5 year cumulative probability of default rose to 24%.


Ukraine are ****ed - but they always were anyway.
Russia tho, Russia was cruising until they intensified this situation, now they're catching up to Ukraine fast - talk about sh*tting where you eat!

WakeUp

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Russian CDS reached above 402 and the implied 5 year cumulative probability of default rose to 24%.


Ukraine are ****ed - but they always were anyway.
Russia tho, Russia was cruising until they intensified this situation, now they're catching up to Ukraine fast - talk about sh*tting where you eat!

all tied in to the drop in oil prices this year nearly 40%. it was such a thing that lead to the last Russian default that some are predicting is going to happen soon enough. putin was asked about the falling oil price sometime in November didnt seem worried replied something like "winter is coming" and the market should be begin to balance out again sometime in January start of next year. read in to that what you will but I have feeling at what he was getting at. no doubt about it the continuing fall in the price of oil is hurting Russia and will continue to do so until it balances out through market forces or actions of their own. they believe the market is being manipulated to hurt them. a Russian default could well happen but its too early to say if it will.

Markcheese

I don't think the eu wants a bust Russia - a good bit less expansionary and destabilizing maybe but bust no . At the same time they couldn't just get all their energy from Russia - as shown too risky - turkey was never going to become part of the eu- but turkey getting a good deal on Russian gas could be good for the Eu-

WakeUp

I dont think the eu wants a bust Russia either though they/we are acting at the behest of washington and they firmly have the Russians in their cross hairs. Iran might be a possible alternative but im not so sure about that they have the largest gas reserves on the planet though last time I checked they were under a certain amount of American/western sanctions themselves and thats without going into the politics of making that happen. gas from Turkey will still be Russian gas a proportion of it anyways the long term energy security of the continent is pretty much up in the air as things stand.

__________________________________________________________________________________

EU Energy geopolitics - the potential role of Iran and the Turkish route:

As the struggle between Russia and the West in Ukraine deepens, the EU is beginning to reconsider its options vis-a-vis weakening Russia's near monopoly in the European gas market.

In the context of the changing international environment, Iran's role in delivering gas to Europe represents a potential alternative in the diversification of the European energy sector, in particular after the November 2013 interim agreement to curb Tehran's nuclear activity, which resulted in the international sanctions relief.

Iran is seeking to bring more foreign companies into its energy sector, which according to recent BP statistics, has the world's first-largest natural gas reserves (33.6 trillion cubic meters). The instability in the Middle East, especially in Iraq, and the scheduled pipelines including TANAP, TAP, IAP, IGB and IBR projects, which constitute the EU-proposed Southern Gas Corridor, seem to be increasing the significance of the Turkish route for the diversion of Iranian gas to European markets. The question remains, however: will this concept alleviate the energy security geopolitical burden of the EU or would it just replace it with an over-dependence on Turkey? And, if this is the case, what could be the role of existing and planned regasification terminals in the Eastern Mediterranean region?

According to figures released by the US-based Energy Information Administration (EIA), the member states of the EU in addition to Turkey, Norway, Switzerland, and non-EU countries in the Balkans, have consumed a total of 18.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (n.g) in 2013, while Ukraine is the transit route for about 16 percent of Europe’s consumed gas.

Moreover, a number of eastern European countries such as Bulgaria import up to 100 percent of their gas from Russia. Even the mere threat of a Russian supply cut to Europe due to ongoing tension in Russia-US-EU relations because of the crisis in Ukraine, at a time when demand and supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in global markets are hardly balanced, could have serious repercussions on the financially crippled “old continent.”

As China imports more LNG consignments, and particularly after Moscow and Beijing have signed an impressively important gas deal recently (May 2014), the amount of gas supply to Europe by Algeria and secessionist war-torn Libya has fallen dramatically.

Not only eastern European countries but also the eastern part of Turkey may face gas shortages if the gas flow from Russia feeding the transit pipeline that runs along northeast Europe and Ukraine. Ankara has agreed with Iran to develop three blocks of Iran’s giant South Pars gas field and pipeline (2008), Iran-Turkey-Europe (ITE), crossing 5,000 kilometers to Greece and from there on to Germany. International sanctions against Iran have halted the project. Furthermore, Ankara required that Tehran give a transit order to deliver Turkmen gas via Turkish territory.

EU unwillingness to use Iran as an alternative supply source as a direct result of political issues, especially from mounting pressure from the US, seems to bewilder. The prolonging of the six months ease in US sanctions imposed on Teheran in relation to the latter’s nuclear program (P5+1 group, 2013), in concert with the severe worsening of US/EU relations with Russia, may offer Europe an extraordinary solution. Iran is willing to increase its production to attract much deeded investment, both domestically and from abroad, particularly in the South Pars gas field. Any investment could easily result in a large increase in production and in economic stimulation for Iran.

The Islamic Republic is in good position to export gas to the EU either via ITE or the scheduled, though decided in 2013, TANAP and TAP pipelines through Turkey, Greece and Albania to Italy and Central Europe, as well as southeastern Europe through the Greece-Bulgaria Interconnector (GBI) and Ionian-Adriatic Pipeline (IAP) or build its own pipeline.

Interestingly, the second option was in motion in the form of an Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline that was thwarted by the West and Sunni Gulf States through the attempted destabilization of the Assad regime in Syria (3). Iran could heal Europe’s energy security anxiety in combination with Azerbaijan, appeasing all worries expressed regarding Azeri reserves.

Teheran’s geostrategic alliance of convenience with Moscow shouldn’t been viewed as an obstacle if Iran wishes to act on this opportunity to further legitimize itself in the eyes of the international community. Indeed, Russia discusses with Israel, Iran’s arch nemesis, the latter’s gas reserves in the Levant basin, and did not veto UN sanctions against its ally.

Yet politically, any move by Iran to bolster the Southern Corridor would provoke Russian ire and risk weakening the nascent yet formidable China-Russia-Iran nexus which is posing a worthy challenge to the West.

A battle is raging over whether pipelines will go toward Europe from east to west, from Iran and Iraq to the Mediterranean coast of Syria, or take a more northbound route from Qatar and Saudi Arabia via Syria and Turkey. Having realized that the stalled Nabucco pipeline, and indeed the entire Southern Corridor, are backed up only by Azerbaijan’s reserves and can never equal Russian supplies to Europe or thwart the construction of South Stream, the West is in a hurry to replace them with resources from the Persian Gulf.

Syria ends up being a key link in this chain, and it leans in favor of Iran and Russia; thus it was decided in the Western capitals that its regime needs to change (4). The same applies for Northern Iraq and KRG, where the humanitarian façade of the intervention lead by Washington in favor of the Kurdish Pesmerga fighters against the assault of the Sunni jihadists, in fact is about securing the secure flowing of Iranian natural gas on its way to Turkey and to European markets.

There is a major hydrocarbon route driven rivalry going on between US and Russia in a huge area that Zbignew Bzrezinski called “Eurasian Balkans” (5) and regional powers like Iran and Turkey in the Middle East are drawing the dice…. But then, from the European point of view, if Iranian and Kurdish natural gas is fuels the EU through Turkey, Brussels faces the risk of finally partially replacing the Russian politically motivated divide and rule hydrocarbon export policy in Europe with Turkish overwhelming self-esteem to be a world-class energy hub.

And so, such a choice is of paramount importance for Europe’s energy security in view of the arbitrary and continuous violation of Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by Turkish warships to the detriment of regional security in this war-prone region.
http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/eu-energy-geopolitics-iran-russia-turkey?

WakeUp

both houses in the states have passed more legislation/sanctions directed toward Russia - the Ukraine freedom support act of 2014 -...... freedom.

________________________________________________________________________

While the market, and America's media, was focusing over the passage of the Cromnibus, and whether Wall Street would dump a few hundred trillion in derivatives on the laps of US taxpayers once again (it did), quietly and unanimously both houses passed The Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014, which authorizes "providing lethal assistance to Ukraine’s military" as well as sweeping sanctions on Russia’s energy sector.

The measure mandates sanctions against Rosoboronexport, the state agency that promotes Russia’s defense exports and arms trade. It also would require sanctions on OAO Gazprom (GAZP), the world’s largest extractor of natural gas, if the state-controlled company withholds supplies to other European nations (yes, the US is now in the pre-emptive punishment business, and is enforcing sanctions on a "what if" basis).

But while one may debate if additional sanctions will do much to impact a Russian economy which is already impaired due to the plunging ruble, the clear escalation is that unlike previously, when the US limited itself - at least on paper - to non-lethal assistance to the Ukraine, now the US is finally preparing to send in weapons, and potentially "military advisors" as well. We say "on paper", because in late November hacked US documents revealed the extent of secret US "Lethal Aid" for the Ukraine army. And since America's under-the-table support for Ukraine's insolvent armed forces has been revealed, there is little point in pretending to keep a moral upper hand (especially in light of recent "other" revelations involving the US, most notably its intelligence services).

And as has happened for the entire duration of the second Cold War, any action by the US was promptly met with a just as provocative reaction by Russia. In this case, a leftist member of the Russian Duma said the US Senate’s decision to arm the Kiev regime should prompt ‘adequate measures’ from Russia, such as deploying military force on Ukrainian territory before the threat becomes too high.

In other words, in addition to the global energy meltdown which is about to send oil exporting nations into a state of shock matched only by owners of US High Yield energy bonds, the Ukraine conflict, which the algos and carbon-based Portfolio Manager forgot about, is about to re-escalate, with Russia now set to recreate the Crimea annexation after it officially sends its troops on Ukraine soil.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-13/russia-warns-may-send-troops-ukraine-after-congress-unanimously-votes-give-lethal-ai?

Gatling

Be very interested to see what exactly what the Americans will send lethal equipment wise .
Could actually be a game changer if the Ukrainian's get the right equipment and training to secure there country and border

Markcheese

So because America says it may send weapons to Ukraine in future , Russia was justified in sending in troops and equipment (on holidays ) into Ukraine -
- as well as annexing Crimea ( which I do realize had very little link to Ukraine and very little tartar population left either..

BoJack Horseman

Gatling wrote: »

Be very interested to see what exactly what the Americans will send lethal equipment wise .
Could actually be a game changer if the Ukrainian's get the right equipment and training to secure there country and border

They are unlikely to send what Ukraine needs.

That is: radar & infrared guided air-to-surface missiles compatible with Ukraine's soviet plane inventory.
Javelin anti-air/armour weapons.
Live & constant satellite feeds.

If the US did supply weapons (And I doubt they will) it would probably be small arms.

Larbre34

As of this morning, and at a now alarming rate, Russia is beginning an economic meltdown - an increase in wholesale rates from 10 to 17% failed to prop up the rouble and inflation is heading north of 10% fast. Putin's hubris will be his downfall as a winter of discontent awaits him. Remember those bare shelves at times around the fall of communism? Well it will be bare Mercedes dealers and Gucci stores when even the relatively rich can no longer afford the western wholesale prices - and those brands will end their presence in Russia if they are losing money merely to operate their outlets. Same goes for technology and communications.

Hard to see where Putin will turn for a distraction, but ransoming gas or going into open battle in east Ukraine or some other Russian speaking enclave wouldnt be beyond him, if only for a distraction and a rallying point for the Russian people.

One things for sure, the western sanctions have worked, certainly more than Putin anticipated and probably more than the likes of Germany would have wished. Nothing more dangerous than a wounded bear.

BoJack Horseman

Now is the time to step up sanctions.
I doubt the West will do so though, if only to appear somewhat magnanimous.

€1 now buys 86 roubles.

Do Putin's fans still consider him to hold all the cards?

Larbre34

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Now is the time to step up sanctions.
I doubt the West will do so though, if only to appear somewhat magnanimous.

€1 now buys 86 roubles.

Do Putin's fans still consider him to hold all the cards?

This is the question. All his backers in the oligarchy make their money from exporting commodities. Their revenues as well as their ability to travel for business / pleasure is being massively curtailed. If Putin cannot deliver what they need to prosper, they will cut him loose.

Larbre34

Media quote from this afternoon

"The situation is critical. We could not imagine this in our worst nightmare a year ago," Russian Central Bank first deputy chairman Sergei Shvetsov was quoted by Interfax as saying.

WakeUp

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Now is the time to step up sanctions.
I doubt the West will do so though, if only to appear somewhat magnanimous.

€1 now buys 86 roubles.

Do Putin's fans still consider him to hold all the cards?

As labre has pointed out this is the question. it's open and blatant economic war against Russia and their people. the end game being crashing the Russian economy and getting rid of Putin .and it's being cheered on by some as if it's a good thing probably due to a lack of understanding as to the ramifications of such a thing happening. it isn't a good thing. suppose it depends on whether or not you believe that you can crash the Russian economy, the west wins Russia gives in to it's demands and everyone lives happily ever after. still think a Russian default for the time being is unlikely things are different than 1998. you could also ask the question just how much more of this the Russians are going to take. this could get nasty.

cerastes

WakeUp wrote: »

As labre has pointed out this is the question. it's open and blatant economic war against Russia and their people. the end game being crashing the Russian economy and getting rid of Putin .and it's being cheered on by some as if it's a good thing probably due to a lack of understanding as to the ramifications of such a thing happening. it isn't a good thing. suppose it depends on whether or not you believe that you can crash the Russian economy, the west wins Russia gives in to it's demands and everyone lives happily ever after. still think a Russian default for the time being is unlikely things are different than 1998. you could also ask the question just how much more of this the Russians are going to take. this could get nasty.

I dont know what the graphs and indicators above mean, depressing/depreciating the Rouble, reducing the value they get from their exports, increasing the costs of running things for them.
Whats to say they wont lash out, Im kind of suprised they wont, or that they wont either directly or by some proxy launch some kind of attack (I mean cyber attack in response, but maybe something else too), it looks like they are being openly assailed by outside forces. Even if Putin falls frome grace, its hard to see how the Russian populace couldnt have any problems pointed out to them as being caused by the US/Western influence, maybe that message will get through before they tire of him or maybe they will think they need him now more than ever? surely the western economies are as fragile and susceptible to intervention?