Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

SweetCaliber

Few more pics of Tramore, Co.Waterford And a video...

maiden

Nothing happening in Clare I'm going to bed

RaeRae

nodnod wrote: »

I have no link or dealings withe website,

It just shows how severe the wind at this present time over Ireland. I thought this post high risk weather ireland , it would be good to show a visual of the weather to new boards weather fans, This web post is not for old members but for all boards users and to let you know I have posted many times on this forum to give important weather information !

remember information is key when dangerous weather is about .

All I am promoting is the weather technology available to the public.

I have no involvement with the site.

I think the insinuation was more that unless you're new to this board, everyone here is very familiar with that site.

mickger844posts

Pressure just hit 960.8hpa which is a station record low. Previous lowest was 961.2 hpa in November 2010.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

sully2010

Weathercheck wrote: »

I don't mean to be rude but this link has been constantly plugged on this forum for the last number of months and mostly by newbie members too! Okay nice tool, we get it!

As good a tool it is, I heard the guy who made it took(stole) the idea from here which is the original:

http://hint.fm/wind/

RaeRae

sully2010 wrote: »

As good a tool it is, I heard the guy who made it took(stole) the idea from here which is the original:

http://hint.fm/wind/

That one only seems to cover the states though? I don't think it can be classed as stealing the idea if he makes a much improved version that serves a much larger area.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ 0300h
____________________

While some flooded areas may remain hazardous, the rest of the current storm event will generally fall below alert levels or low end of level one, meanwhile, we need to start assessing the prospects for Saturday's storm. I will perhaps post a few thoughts on that after 0600h.

Note, have edited thread title but can't access the part of the title that contains the colour-coded level, so have alerted moderators and the title will soon change to Level One, slight risk. The Saturday event could be a level two but until we get closer to the event, we will stay on level one, or even drop that if the Saturday event drops in strength on future model runs.

Thanks for some excellent videos and reports on Tuesday's events in the south.

ninebeanrows

Some potential for a major storm into western France early next week.

M.T. Cranium

The Saturday storm has stopped its southward drift on the models and consensus now shows it coming inland over Clare then tracking northeast. This would return very strong winds to the south coast as central pressures are quite low, in the range of 945-950 mb on all model guidance. For now this is just a theoretical assessment, the system in question is already an active low over West Virginia that is dropping 10-20 cm snowfalls north of its track and freezing rain along the track. This low is not bringing very much warm air north in contrast to most of the last several.

For now I am suggesting staying on level one although if these model forecasts verified we would have a level 2 event Friday night in the southwest.

Hopefully we will get this title thread re-set soon to Level One.

Harps

Looks like a PV lobe is going to set up shop right over Ireland and the UK for the next week, a complex and messy setup so always potential for strong wind events popping up at short notice. High tides seem to get lower as the week goes on though so hopefully coastal flooding won't be an issue again

M.T. Cranium

Yep, a nice settled spell would be very welcome even as far away as where I am, getting a bit tired of so many storms almost every other day ... thread title should be fixed up soon, I see we have the level adjusted.

Will be off now until 1700h or possibly later then catching up with your assessments of the Saturday potential. The models have been pretty reliable on most of these events but sooner or later one is going to do something totally unexpected, perhaps. Every winter seems to produce one or two storms that take a sharp southward jog about 72h before the event, I have to wonder if this one might since it is not gathering a lot of warm air on its journey through the eastern U.S.

DOCARCH

Not too windy here this morning but very wet. 10.3mm since midnight/31.8mm since yesterday afternoon. River flooding could become an issue in the Dublin area.

maquiladora

Check out the Suir overflowing in Clonmel. More heavy rain on Friday/Saturday is not good at all.

http://www.farsondigitalwatercams.com/live-webcams/ireland/Suir/Clonmel/

KCLR 96FM ‏@kclr96fm 12m

Water levels in Burrin, Barrow and Slaney rivers all critical this morning according to #Carlow local authorities

ECM show more lows heading our way after this in FI too...

ninebeanrows

Latest 6z has the high winds brushing the southern coasts Sat AM, some small movement further north and could take a full hit.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest 6z has the high winds brushing the southern coasts Sat AM, some small movement further north and could take a full hit.

Yeah, would be stronger than yesterday on the southwest coast if that verified. Though it's a more typical angle of attack.



This is the bigger problem though...

Dickerty

What is the situation with the expected storm on Fri/Sat? Is it still expected to be a big one?

Cantona's Collars

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah, would be stronger than yesterday on the southwest coast if that verified. Though it's a more typical angle of attack.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020506/78-289UK.GIF?05-6

This is the bigger problem though...

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2014020506/63-574UK.GIF?05-6

Sky news briefly mentioned it earlier,they had it tracking from the South and impacting on Southern England moreso than us,as you say all that could change.

V1

Yesterdays wind speeds in West Cork.
Winds measured @ 2m.
Peak Gust of 103kph @ 16:45


2014-02-05 10:45:20.png

Weathering

Ireland - Peak gusts [mph]
February 05, 2014
0 North - South 0 West - East 0 A - Z 0 Max - Min 0 Altitude

Stations: 11 Gusts
Sherkin (21 m) 65 mph
Malin Head (25 m) 63 mph
Dublin Airport (85 m) 50 mph
Dublin Csmt Aero (93 m) 49 mph
Johnstown Castle (53 m) 47 mph
Cork-Corcaigh (162 m) 45 mph
Ireland West Airport Knock (209 m) 42 mph
Mace Head (23 m) 42 mph
Valentia (30 m) 42 mph
Oak Park (63 m) 40 mph
Roches Point (41 m) 29 mph

Ireland - Peak gusts [mph]
February 04, 2014
0 North - South 0 West - East 0 A - Z 0 Max - Min 0 Altitude

Stations: 14 Gusts
Sherkin (21 m) 74 mph
Cork-Corcaigh (162 m) 67 mph
Malin Head (25 m) 63 mph
Johnstown Castle (53 m) 58 mph
Mace Head (23 m) 58 mph
Dublin Csmt Aero (93 m) 56 mph
Valentia (30 m) 56 mph
Dublin Airport (85 m) 55 mph
Ireland West Airport Knock (209 m) 53 mph
Oak Park (63 m) 53 mph
Shannon (20 m) 49 mph
Belmullet (10 m) 45 mph
Ballyhaise (79 m) 45 mph
Roches Point (41 m) 35 mph

Sourced www.weatheronline.co.uk

Red Pepper

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah, would be stronger than yesterday on the southwest coast if that verified. Though it's a more typical angle of attack.

This is the bigger problem though...

Does that say 10mm of snow in West Galway on Friday?

cherryghost

No, it's rain within a 3 hour period

red_bairn

Red Pepper wrote: »

Does that say 10mm of snow in West Galway on Friday?

Rain, I thinkz. I believe the dashed lines at Scotland may be the snow.

mickger844posts

A station record 955.5 hPa pressure reading recorded overnight beating the previous low of 961.2 in November 2010. How long will the new record last? Maybe not too long

www.waterfordcityweather.com

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

A station record 955.5 hPa pressure reading recorded overnight beating the previous low of 961.2 in November 2010. How long will the new record last? Maybe not too long

www.waterfordcityweather.com

The record February pressure for anywhere in Ireland in 942.3 since records began. That could be broken on Saturday.

KingdomRushed

Is it fair to say that the current forecasts are showing a slight trend to bring this next storm further north with worsening impacts?

Tim the Enchanter

Tramore this morning -

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=721306971223138&set=vb.128224510531390&type=2&theater

diceyd

thanks to everyone for all your views and input yesterday and last night,cheers guys.

RoisinD

Tim the Enchanter wrote: »

Tramore this morning -

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=721306971223138&set=vb.128224510531390&type=2&theater

Thanks for posting. That if nothing else should teach everyone a lesson. Never lose respect for the sea.

force eleven

Next storm on Friday/ Saturday causing headaches I'd say in Met Eireann - track is differing run to run depending on what model you look at.

leahyl

Tim the Enchanter wrote: »

Tramore this morning -

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=721306971223138&set=vb.128224510531390&type=2&theater

Unbelievable stupidity