Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

pauldry

although i appreciate everyones input I particularly take great attention to
weathercheck maquiladora and MT .

However boards is really the only place to go for Irelands weather isnt it at times like this. Twitter has some stuff and facebook but for overall everything and expert opinions and things I learn every day this is the best.

The weekend looks just wet and windy (like we used to have before Noah intervened)

Tidal stuff wont be as much of an issue.

Here in the West the rainfall for the Winter looks like it will be over 600mm for places that normally get 1000 or 1100 for a whole year. Most years the rain evens itself out over the year. If that is the case in the next 10 months March to December we will get a lot of dry months. We may even get one of them in the Summer too mehopes.

I think myself that March will be one of the OK months considering the previous 3 will have been washouts. If not surely April or May

_Whimsical_

pauldry wrote: »

although i appreciate everyones input I particularly take great attention to
weathercheck maquiladora and MT .

However boards is really the only place to go for Irelands weather isnt it at times like this. Twitter has some stuff and facebook but for overall everything and expert opinions and things I learn every day this is the best.

Hear hear. I fully agree.

househero

Is the river barrow flooding at new Ross bridge or just before you get into town?

Trying to find high tide charts, but I can't.

I got caught out last time as I was in a looong q to cross the bridge as they used huge pumps to clear the water fr the Waterford side.

The slaney is very close to flooding at ennisvorthy and probably will do a little on high tide. It has burst it's banks just after the town a few days already, but that's common and not really affecting homes/business/travel yet.

ninebeanrows

ECMWF still gunning for that dangerous wind-storm, but still some time to
go before resolved.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECMWF still gunning for that dangerous wind-storm, but still some time to
go before resolved.

I really wish we were talking about upper temp charts !

M.T. Cranium

If anything, there is a slight northward shift in the guidance for Saturday, but strong winds would likely be confined to the south coast counties and other parts of west Munster. Tuesday looks potentially significant but too far away to have much confidence in the model suggestions yet.

I have sent in a report to mods asking for a thread title change and a level 2 alert (more for the heavy rainfalls with 20-30 mm potential) but also some more very strong gusts in the south coastal regions, with this wording for the title now:

Heavy rains return late Friday, very strong winds for south overnight and Saturday

and I am currently heading off to sleep here, so if readers don't see a change in thread title by mid-day perhaps you could alert a moderator, I don't expect this to change right away but maybe around 10:00 or so.

One of the interesting features of the Saturday storm event will be that most models show a sub-950 mb pressure hitting land (most likely Belmullet or Newport) so that will be interesting to follow.

pad199207

CNN weather just did a bit about this saturdays storm and i quote "local authorities are saying to people to stay inside"

blackwave

househero wrote: »

Is the river barrow flooding at new Ross bridge or just before you get into town?

Trying to find high tide charts, but I can't.

I got caught out last time as I was in a looong q to cross the bridge as they used huge pumps to clear the water fr the Waterford side.

The slaney is very close to flooding at ennisvorthy and probably will do a little on high tide. It has burst it's banks just after the town a few days already, but that's common and not really affecting homes/business/travel yet.

Which side are you talking about? If its the Wexford side its flooding around Nolan Transport and the Garda station. The waterford side its on the bend just before the bridge. I think the tide is due after 10 sometime this morning though and it didnt flood last night afaik.

Speak Now

blackwave wrote: »

Which side are you talking about? If its the Wexford side its flooding around Nolan Transport and the Garda station. The waterford side its on the bend just before the bridge. I think the tide is due after 10 sometime this morning though and it didnt flood last night afaik.

The Waterford side :pac:

corsav6

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

If anything, there is a slight northward shift in the guidance for Saturday, but strong winds would likely be confined to the south coast counties and other parts of west Munster. Tuesday looks potentially significant but too far away to have much confidence in the model suggestions yet.

I have sent in a report to mods asking for a thread title change and a level 2 alert (more for the heavy rainfalls with 20-30 mm potential) but also some more very strong gusts in the south coastal regions, with this wording for the title now:

Heavy rains return late Friday, very strong winds for south overnight and Saturday

and I am currently heading off to sleep here, so if readers don't see a change in thread title by mid-day perhaps you could alert a moderator, I don't expect this to change right away but maybe around 10:00 or so.

One of the interesting features of the Saturday storm event will be that most models show a sub-950 mb pressure hitting land (most likely Belmullet or Newport) so that will be interesting to follow.

Sorry to be a noob but what will the sub-950 mean for Newport? We're 4 miles inland from Newport quay and get battered by SW winds because of the landscape, fairly well protected from other directions.

MT, Weathercheck and Maquiladoro thanks for all your input, been a great help over the weeks since I joined.

Eileen Down

Really nasty storm conditions right now here in Galicia. It kicked off a couple of hours ago. I'm thirty kilometres inland in a very sheltered area, so I can't imagine how a bad it is on the coast.
I guess it's coming your way.

Cantona's Collars

househero wrote: »

Is the river barrow flooding at new Ross bridge or just before you get into town?

Trying to find high tide charts, but I can't.

I got caught out last time as I was in a looong q to cross the bridge as they used huge pumps to clear the water fr the Waterford side.

The slaney is very close to flooding at ennisvorthy and probably will do a little on high tide. It has burst it's banks just after the town a few days already, but that's common and not really affecting homes/business/travel yet.

Enniscorthy got lucky last night,in fairness to the LA,they did all that was possible in the event of a flood,can't see the town escaping after the next bout of heavy rains.

BTW - Boo to the local radio station,they gave updates until 9pm then as high tide approached they didn't bother.National radio was more on the ball.

hawkwing

New MET warning :

National Weather Warnings



STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

An Atlantic depression will move eastwards across Ireland on Friday night and Saturday bringing strong southerly winds and heavy rain for a time with heavy showers following, giving a risk of localised flooding.

Southerly winds will reach mean speeds of 45 to 65 km/hr with gusts of 80 to 110 km/hr and becoming west to southwest in direction in the south on Saturday morning.

Issued:
Thursday 06 February 2014 10:00

Valid:
Friday 07 February 2014 21:00 to Saturday 08 February 2014 12:00

Oneiric 3

Eileen Down wrote: »

Really nasty storm conditions right now here in Galicia. It kicked off a couple of hours ago. I'm thirty kilometres inland in a very sheltered area, so I can't imagine how a bad it is on the coast.
I guess it's coming your way.

Pretty tight gradient in that warm sector at 06z. Think we'll only scrape that system here but looks like it could bring a lot more rain to parts of the UK. Don't think there will be any water shortages there this year.

maquiladora

hawkwing wrote: »

New MET warning :

National Weather Warnings



STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

An Atlantic depression will move eastwards across Ireland on Friday night and Saturday bringing strong southerly winds and heavy rain for a time with heavy showers following, giving a risk of localised flooding.

Southerly winds will reach mean speeds of 45 to 65 km/hr with gusts of 80 to 110 km/hr and becoming west to southwest in direction in the south on Saturday morning.

Issued:
Thursday 06 February 2014 10:00

Valid:
Friday 07 February 2014 21:00 to Saturday 08 February 2014 12:00

Looking at the latest HIRLAM, a yellow warning seems about right for the moment. Wind speeds don't look remarkable, gales brushing the south coast, with strong winds not really moving inland at all on this model.

http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,419

The heavy rain that will be adding to the high water levels is the main story here.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Looking at the latest HIRLAM, a yellow warning seems about right for the moment. Wind speeds don't look remarkable, gales brushing the south coast, with strong winds not really moving inland at all on this model.

http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,419

The heavy rain that will be adding to the high water levels is the main story here.

Could be looking at a possible record breaking pressure reading for Feb if that low stays as low on landfall. GFS has readings down to 947 hPa here locally. :eek:

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Could be looking at a possible record breaking pressure reading for Feb if that low stays as low on landfall. GFS has readings down to 947 hPa here locally. :eek:

Yeah looks like it'll be close to the pressure record even if the winds won't be record breaking.

Next Tuesday looking a bit interesting though... :eek:

leahyl

Oh my good God, Maq! :eek: Too far away yet I suppose but still - that's some chart!

MiNdGaM3

The worst flooding in Cahir so far. The bridge into the Inch Field beside the castle has been closed off as the river is flowing into rather than under it.
Almost a similar situation with the main bridge in Cahir. traffic is backed up a lot in the town as they're trying to clear trees that have become trapped against the bridge. Will get some pictures in a while.

patneve2

There will be an interval of SSE gales to strong gales on the South and East Coast tomorrow evening/night. As others have said, doesn't look too bad but a small change in track can change everything. Tuesday could be the windiest day of the winter in some areas, still far out but keep an eye out on that one.

red_bairn

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Pretty tight gradient in that warm sector at 06z. Think we'll only scrape that system here but looks like it could bring a lot more rain to parts of the UK. Don't think there will be any water shortages there this year.

You'd think, eh? But sure didn't we have awful floods back last year and then extremely hot weather a week later and a water shortage...

:rolleyes:

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Oh my good God, Maq! :eek: Too far away yet I suppose but still - that's some chart!

Yes, worth keeping an eye on. The same model had it over Wales on the previous run so a lot of uncertainty, 5 days is a long time.

RobertKK

red_bairn wrote: »

You'd think, eh? But sure didn't we have awful floods back last year and then extremely hot weather a week later and a water shortage...

:rolleyes:

There was drought conditions, but last year rainfall was below normal until December.
18 to 20 days with no official rainfall is an official drought.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, worth keeping an eye on. The same model had it over Wales on the previous run so a lot of uncertainty, 5 days is a long time.

Thanks for all the updates Maq.Certainly you,Weathercheck and MT have been a great help in outlining the weather risks in this turbulent atlantic dominated pattern.

Just re next Tuesday the models have been very accurate in predicting storm tracks so potentially very worrying for next week.

relaxed

red_bairn wrote: »

You'd think, eh? But sure didn't we have awful floods back last year and then extremely hot weather a week later and a water shortage...

:rolleyes:

Actually its not as simple as that, its all about getting the right type of rain apparently.

Winter rain like we are getting at the moment will bring the water table up and saturate the ground, acting like a sponge, then the water will drain away into the rivers all summer keeping the reservoir levels high.

Heavy rain closer to summer evaporates or largely runs straight off the top of hardened ground or the grass and trees absorb a lot of it as they are growing quickly.

Call me Al

do we have more detail on how much rain we can expect here around here in Dunboyne/Clonee?

I'm looking at a back garden saturated to capacity, with a septic tank and a pur@flo system with no where to put the run off.
To say we are anxious is an understatement.

Harps

Call me Al wrote: »

do we have more detail on how much rain we can expect here around here in Dunboyne/Clonee?

I'm looking at a back garden saturated to capacity, with a septic tank and a pur@flo system with no where to put the run off.
To say we are anxious is an understatement.

Going by the latest WRF, Meath looks like escaping the worst of the rain over the next few days, still a risk for rivers with large catchment areas though with a lot of rain nationwide.

Villain

Call me Al wrote: »

do we have more detail on how much rain we can expect here around here in Dunboyne/Clonee?

I'm looking at a back garden saturated to capacity, with a septic tank and a pur@flo system with no where to put the run off.
To say we are anxious is an understatement.

I would estimate about 35mm over next 3 days

Call me Al

Villain wrote: »

I would estimate about 35mm over next 3 days

35mm over 3 days... not good. It better soak away a bit faster than it's doing.

bangkok

40mm in places..