Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

yellowlabrador

a bleak look from Simon Keeling. He's warning about coastal flooding again for Saturday

weisses

Was the warning downgraded from Level 2 to level 1 ?

DominoDub

A bit of fun from Broadsheet.ie:o Maybe not for those affected

ninebeanrows

Quite a strong and sustained blow for the southeast on this run for Satruday.

maquiladora

12Z GFS looks pretty stormy for the southwest coast. Storm force sustained winds of 90-100 km/h on the coast.





On the other hand, 12Z UKMO is about 30 km/h weaker...

diceyd

munsterlegend wrote: »

Thanks for all the updates Maq.Certainly you,Weathercheck and MT have been a great help in outlining the weather risks in this turbulent atlantic dominated pattern.

couldnt agree more mate.

Villain

The warning levels here are all over the place, if someone is going to downgrade or upgrade can they at least explain why?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Villain wrote: »

The warning levels here are all over the place, if someone is going to downgrade or upgrade can they at least explain why?

Looks like someone was testing new ones

maquiladora

12Z GFS for Tuesday doesn't have the deep low that the ECM had (it sends it to France instead) but it does feature another low off the northwest coast, bringing yet more heavy rain (perhaps falling as snow for a time).



12Z UKMO has a 960mb low directly over us on Tuesday.



So the wet and windy theme looks set to conitune after the weekend. How wet and how windy remains to be seen.

weisses

DominoDub wrote: »

A bit of fun from Broadsheet.ie:o Maybe not for those affected

Ahhh ffs at least use Colin Farrell :mad:

ninebeanrows

UKM still going for a troublesome low for Tuesday.

ECMWF will be interesting with its higher resolution.

Itsdacraic

Met Eireann are saying that tomorrow night/Saturdays rain will be nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year?

How many mm of rain are expected to drop on Limerick region?

maquiladora

Itsdacraic wrote: »

Met Eireann are saying that tomorrow night/Saturdays rain will be nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year?

How many mm of rain are expected to drop on Limerick region?

About 15-30mm over the next few days. Hard to predict exactly because there will be heavy showers after the main rain band passes over, so some places will get more than others. Looks like more rain then on Monday/Tuesday.

maquiladora

For Friday/Saturday, 12Z ECM is similar to the UKMO, winds aren't as strong for the south as on the GFS.

maquiladora

12Z ECM showing a significant windstorm for Tuesday.

JanuarySnowstor

As well as both UKMO and ECM showing a nasty storm on Tuesday they also both show 850's cold enough for snow!!

ninebeanrows

Yea ECMWF with an end of days type storm again, it will be some coup if it sticks with this and it comes off as picking that up at that range is impressive.

Track open to change large changes.

But this one would hit the south and west pretty hard gusts >80kts

Harps

The most severe storm all winter if that ECMWF run is any way accurate for Tuesday, a lot of different solutions though so likely the final outcome will be different, I'd wait till Saturday before taking it seriously

maquiladora

12Z ECM also showing lows crossing Ireland on Wednesday and Friday of next week...

A lot of rain on the way and at times the risk of strong winds.

TheMilkyPirate

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM also showing lows crossing Ireland on Wednesday and Friday of next week...

A lot of rain on the way and at times the risk of strong winds.

Fantastic.. :rolleyes: Soccer season will go on till July if this weather keeps up, Haven't had a game in 3 weeks.

MiNdGaM3

Quite a train of storms

Saturday


Tuesday


Friday


Plenty of showery and windy days in between too.
I wonder if the February monthly rainfall record for synoptic stations could be beaten? Valentia is already at 80.7mm for the first 5 days, and the record is 299.9mm.

Chris The Hacker

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Fantastic.. :rolleyes: Soccer season will go on till July if this weather keeps up, Haven't had a game in 3 weeks.

Don't worry. Storms in Ireland shouldn't affect you Americans.

secman

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Fantastic.. :rolleyes: Soccer season will go on till July if this weather keeps up, Haven't had a game in 3 weeks.

American or some one from outside the pale.

maquiladora

Another look at the 12Z ECM for Tuesday, reaches peak intensity in Donegal Bay. A major storm for the west/northwest shown.

High uncertainty with this though.

whitebriar

High uncertainty on tracking but the storm train is far from over.
We've a good two weeks of bounce from the ejection of cold air from the state's yet.
After that,hopefully we may see a settling down.
It might take a while for the door to open from the other side of the house after that though.

Oneiric 3

ECM 120hrs:



Feb 9th 1988. Widespread gusts of 70 kt + overland. 80 - 90 kt+ along the coast:




Won't turn out anything like that of course but similarities between this year and 1988 just keep on a coming.

Harps

Violent storm force 11, possibly hurricane force along the west and north west coasts

Stella Virgo

Harps wrote: »

Violent storm force 11, possibly hurricane force along the west and north west coasts

sweet jebus,lets hope you are exaggerating big time here :eek:.........

patneve2

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECM 120hrs:



Feb 9th 1988. Widespread gusts of 70 kt + overland. 80 - 90 kt+ along the coast:




Won't turn out anything like that of course but similarities between this year and 1988 just keep on a coming.

93 knot gust at Belmullet (1 knot below record) and 78 knot gust at Casement. Some storm that one in 88

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

ECM 120hrs:
Won't turn out anything like that of course but similarities between this year and 1988 just keep on a coming.

Cork Airport recorded a 90 knot gust during that 88 storm if I remember right.

Puts some of the recent events into perspective...