Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

patneve2

maquiladora wrote: »

Cork Airport recorded a 90 knot gust during that 88 storm if I remember right.

wasn't as bad in the south, but still a strong 72 knot gust in Cork. http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Feb1988_storm.PDF

maquiladora

patneve2 wrote: »

wasn't as bad in the south, but still a strong 72 knot gust in Cork. http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Feb1988_storm.PDF

It was the earlier storm then on Feb 1st that gave Cork Airport a 90 knot gust.

http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-1988-Feb.pdf

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Cork Airport recorded a 90 knot gust during that 88 storm if I remember right.

Puts some of the recent events into perspective...

Just reading the Feb 1988 report there, and it isn't clear whether that gust happened during a storm on the 1st of that month or the 9th. But Cork sure did record a lot of hours with mean winds over 34 kt (Gale 8 or higher). Looking that the gust speeds recorded over the country, would be really hard to imagine something on that scale happening today.

http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-1988-Feb.pdf

Edit, just seen your post above, and was 1st alright.

maquiladora

Worth pointing out that the 12Z GEM has the low crossing the country on Tuesday. Force 12 just off the southwest coast here.

Tactical

Stella Virgo wrote: »

sweet jebus,lets hope you are exaggerating big time here :eek:.........

Let hope not!

It would be nice and exciting

The train of wind events is almost as good as a decent snowfall !

irishgeo

i cant remember a train of storms like this before.

Mech1

What? More wind and rain?
No chance of any Snow coming?
The clock is ticking too fast for my liking, Bring on the white stuff!

force eleven

I remember that Feb 88' storm. The squalls even inland were really vicious, and it remains the only time I actually saw a full size tree falling ( a 40 foot fir) due to the wind.

Rock Lesnar

force eleven wrote: »

I remember that Feb 88' storm.it remains the only time I actually saw a full size tree falling ( a 40 foot fir) due to the wind.

Yeah i was 10 at the time and the home place is beside a large forest, i remember standing outside the front door with the father listening to trees falling all over the place, Chainsaw was in meltdown the next day

maquiladora

Latest Atlantic chart from the OPC forecasts the low to be at 940 off the west coast at 6pm tomorrow. Still a chance we could break the all time February pressure record of 942.3 on Saturday morning.

Chris_5339762

My flight to Leeds from Dublin (and back) is going to be a shocker on Saturday... what do you reckon the chances of diversions are gonna be?

thisguy

As the poster above also asked, does anyone have any thoughts on whether flights on Saturday morning will be diverted/delayed or cancelled?

Going to Liverpool Saturday morning, trying to decide whether to get a flight or ferry. Ferry would be pretty rough I'd imagine?!

maquiladora

thisguy wrote: »

As the poster above also asked, does anyone have any thoughts on whether flights on Saturday morning will be diverted/delayed or cancelled?

Going to Liverpool Saturday morning, trying to decide whether to get a flight or ferry. Ferry would be pretty rough I'd imagine?!

I think flights will probably be fine, it's mainly the south coast that should see strong winds on Saturday.

whitebriar

Regarding the frequent questions coming in about flights-Cross winds of circa 45 knotts + are enough to cause problems at Dublin airport yes.
I wouldn't go cancelling flights yet though as there's no certainty as to where or when winds might be a problem. Just keep reading here and watching forecasts.
Also,the largest ferries are probably going to cost as much to book 1 day out as now,if they're not cancelled,so no point doing anything drastic.

kingshankly

Tactical wrote: »

Let hope not!

It would be nice and exciting

The train of wind events is almost as good as a decent snowfall !

In fairness there's nothing good about storms
Peoples lives have been wrecked by the recent flooding
At least snow doesn't leave a wake of destruction behind

Stella Virgo

kingshankly wrote: »

In fairness there's nothing good about storms
Peoples lives have been wrecked by the recent flooding
At least snow doesn't leave a wake of destruction behind

very true, having spent the last two days refelting and re slating one side of a roof in furbo, i can assure you the novelty factor wears of fairly quickly!

sully2010

whitebriar wrote: »

Regarding the frequent questions coming in about flights-Cross winds of circa 45 knotts + are enough to cause problems at Dublin airport yes.
I wouldn't go cancelling flights yet though as there's no certainty as to where or when winds might be a problem. Just keep reading here and watching forecasts.
Also,the largest ferries are probably going to cost as much to book 1 day out as now,if they're not cancelled,so no point doing anything drastic.

Maximum crosswind limit for 737, A320, Atr is 35 knots so there could well be disruption. All depends on the wind direction though.

Sky King

sully2010 wrote: »

Maximum crosswind limit for 737, A320, Atr is 35 knots so there could well be disruption. All depends on the wind RUNWAY direction though.

FYP... also that's a crosswind vector component... also it's higher than 35kts for a 737...

I reckon it;s impossible to say whether a flight will be diverted. The other day there were aircraft landing and 10 mins later other identical aircraft were having missed approaches and diverting.

red_bairn

kingshankly wrote: »

In fairness there's nothing good about storms
Peoples lives have been wrecked by the recent flooding
At least snow doesn't leave a wake of destruction behind

Well if we got loads of snow like in previous decades and it melted...it would also cause floods. =\

sully2010

Sky King wrote: »

FYP... also that's a crosswind vector component... also it's higher than 35kts for a 737...

I reckon it;s impossible to say whether a flight will be diverted. The other day there were aircraft landing and 10 mins later other identical aircraft were having missed approaches and diverting.

It depends on the wind direction over the runway;) Ive seen many 737's abort at gusting 35 knots. Anyway it looks like there will be disruption of some kind.

ninebeanrows

sully2010 wrote: »

It depends on the wind direction over the runway;) Ive seen many 737's abort at gusting 35 knots. Anyway it looks like there will be disruption of some kind.

They can also land in winds gusting over 60kt if in right direction.

mary30

...and I was planing to go for the weekend to Dublin !!!
Cork was hit bad and comes back again and again !!

RobertKK

kingshankly wrote: »

In fairness there's nothing good about storms
Peoples lives have been wrecked by the recent flooding
At least snow doesn't leave a wake of destruction behind

The worst known floods Ireland had was after the 1947 snow, which melted rapidly.
People in Kilkenny city had to be rescued off roofs as they tried to escape the floods.
http://www.kilkennypeople.ie/what-s-on/arts-culture-entertainment/sean-kerwick-the-greatest-flood-in-living-memory-1947-1-3595841

Harps

kingshankly wrote: »

In fairness there's nothing good about storms
Peoples lives have been wrecked by the recent flooding
At least snow doesn't leave a wake of destruction behind

Wouldn't agree with that, heavy snow and cold like we had a few years ago brings the whole country to a halt, leads to thousands of houses being flooded from burst pipes and countless injuries from slips and falls and car accidents. Storms cause a minor inconvenience for most people immediately away from the coast

Looking at this mornings runs there's still no solution for Tuesday, GFS has a weaker storm well to the north while ECMWF has a severe one well to our south, still a good chance it'll affect Ireland but no consistency at all on the models

Steopo

The models do seem all over the place for next week but the stormy trend continues & they all show the possibility of significant storm event - just not clear yet whether its Ireland, UK or Northern France that gets hit or even what day it might pop up. Next few days will tell in the meantime we still need to keep an eye on Sat for the Southwest.

maquiladora

Tuesday's potential storm that was shown on the last couple of ECM runs has now become a severe storm for France instead. Sacre bleu!

KingdomRushed

That storm is going into France...lol...last night it was bang over Ireland, how could it change so much? Won't be changing back for now will it?

maquiladora

KingdomRushed wrote: »

That storm is going into France...lol...last night it was bang over Ireland, how could it change so much? Won't be changing back for now will it?

A track over France or southern England looks most likely at the moment but very possible that will change.

M.T. Cranium

Would expect a level 2 advisory for the south coast tonight, but not absolutely sure that will happen. I have perhaps not done everything I could have done to memorize what numerical values of wind or rain attach to the three levels, but surely gusts to 120 km/hr are more than just a level one alert. Maybe not.

Not sure if anyone made an announcement of this yesterday, but alert levels on these threads will apparently be set to mirror the alert levels on Met Eireann. In this particular case, as I cannot edit my original post, and will shortly be off line, that will have to take place by moderator intervention.

Please note then, in part because I foresee a lot of difficulties keeping that system working smoothly if I am involved, this will definitely be the last storm thread that I set up, which is probably a good thing in general terms anyway.

My preference is to issue alerts just with the specific numerical forecast values to guide the reader, thinking that this three-level system tends to confuse more than enlighten as it is bound to be invalid for all places in the country and then you get into somewhat politicized discussions of when is level 2 or 3 justified, for example, if any one location in the country faces a level 2 or 3 outcome, or some percentage, or major centres? I think I see how the system actually works in practice, but it certainly isn't governed by the first of those choices, any one location, and I suppose it probably should not be either. But one hates to be held responsible for a paradigm that others have created, rather let them justify it, and from now on I will just issue alerts in my forecast package that people can use or ignore as they choose. That gives me the flexibility to say what I actually think is going to happen and where (and to whom), without worrying about what level that implies.

Villain

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Would expect a level 2 advisory for the south coast tonight, but not absolutely sure that will happen. I have perhaps not done everything I could have done to memorize what numerical values of wind or rain attach to the three levels, but surely gusts to 120 km/hr are more than just a level one alert. Maybe not.

Not sure if anyone made an announcement of this yesterday, but alert levels on these threads will apparently be set to mirror the alert levels on Met Eireann. In this particular case, as I cannot edit my original post, and will shortly be off line, that will have to take place by moderator intervention.

Please note then, in part because I foresee a lot of difficulties keeping that system working smoothly if I am involved, this will definitely be the last storm thread that I set up, which is probably a good thing in general terms anyway.

My preference is to issue alerts just with the specific numerical forecast values to guide the reader, thinking that this three-level system tends to confuse more than enlighten as it is bound to be invalid for all places in the country and then you get into somewhat politicized discussions of when is level 2 or 3 justified, for example, if any one location in the country faces a level 2 or 3 outcome, or some percentage, or major centres? I think I see how the system actually works in practice, but it certainly isn't governed by the first of those choices, any one location, and I suppose it probably should not be either. But one hates to be held responsible for a paradigm that others have created, rather let them justify it, and from now on I will just issue alerts in my forecast package that people can use or ignore as they choose. That gives me the flexibility to say what I actually think is going to happen and where (and to whom), without worrying about what level that implies.

I think to be fair we should follow Met Eireann alert levels and mirror those here in thread titles, they are the professionals and they have the experience.

Then posters can give their opinion for certain areas etc.