Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

vicwatson

^^^^^^^

I completely disagree and infact think MT should be able to amend the thread titles himself as the situation changes and not have to wait for a mod to do it. I've seen a lot of posts requesting a mod to do it.

99% of the time MT's nowcast is more up to date than Met Eireann

maquiladora

I do think we'll probably see Met Eireann upgrade it to an orange warning for Cork/Kerry at some point, the current models and sea area forecast would support that.

Forecast for coasts from Howth Head to Carnsore Point to Valentia and the south Irish Sea
Wind: Westerly force 4 or 5, backing southwest this morning. Increasing south to southeast gale force 8 this afternoon and occasionally strong gale 9 and gusty. Veering south to southwest tonight gale 8 or strong gale 9, and occasionally reaching storm force 10 on parts of the south coast overnight with severe squalls.

Aimsir

Sorry MT but you can't go, you have been far too good. need your posts to level out other predictions/analysis. The alert thing got out of hand and I was suprised the Moderator didn't put a stop to it. Don't let that put you off we need your input.

Lumi

Mod Note

There has been a misunderstanding here.
All that has changed in relation to the warning levels is the following
1. We have altered the colours to mirror the Met Eireann three stage warning system; yellow, orange, red. The levels have been set against a blue background to enhance the visibility of the yellow warning.

2. Following feedback the text has been changed - the contentious 'seek shelter ' has been removed and each level has the same wording as the Met Eireann warnings

3. MTC, Maq and the other experienced posters will continue to dictate the warning level and thread title as they have always done - nothing has changed in that regard

greysides

Lumi wrote: »

The levels have been set against a blue background to enhance the visibility of the yellow warning.

Not a fan of that idea. Doesn't look right. IMO.

shmaupel

Here's hoping the weather board doesn't get too bogged down by administrative vagaries :-)

MT, Maq, WC etc are the business in my opinion and it wrecks my head that people, during a weather event, start to freak out about thread titles etc instead of focusing on the informed views of so many diligent posters. I can't read a chart from scratch to save my life but I absolutely love being able to read them coupled with other people's interpretation of them.

I understand why the main posters here want to avoid future consternation in this regard and I just hope it doesn't put any of you off posting.

Thanks everyone.

ninebeanrows

GFS having great difficulty with the set-up as are most models.

Very uncertain outlook, difficult to see what disturbance will develop in the 96-144hr timeframe.

Potential for one to develop dramatically but its end location extremely hard to pinpoint.

maquiladora

06Z GFS is more of a Yellow than an Orange for tonight/tomorrow, gusts of 100-110 km/h on the coast. The track keeps the strongest winds off shore.



Still with a real chance of breaking the record February low pressure though.



On the other hand, 06Z HIRLAM does show storm force winds along southwest and south coasts tomorrow, so I think a stronger warning from Met Eireann is still likely.

Oscar Bravo

A 1136 update from met eireann warns of severe and damaging winds Monday night/Tuesday countywide.

Mince Pie

Hi, sorry to be a pain but boyfriend is flying in to dublin airport tonight for around 9pm. Can anyone tell me what the craic is with winds this evening and if theres a likelihood the plane will be redirected?

force eleven

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A 1136 update from met eireann warns of severe and damaging winds Monday night/Tuesday countywide.

From Met Eireann:

'Monday night & Tuesday: Stormy conditions are expected to develop Monday night and for Tuesday, as another Atlantic storm passes close to our northwestern coast, bringing very stormy conditions countrywide, with a spell of heavy rain. The heavy rain will turn showery on Tuesday, but some heavy or thundery downpours are likely and some wintry falls possible later in the day. Very severe and damaging winds are expected but winds should ease overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.'

Unusually severe update. I know this weekend is to be got through, but I'm casting one eye at this one too. Conveyor belt Atlantic still in full swing....

leahyl

force eleven wrote: »

From Met Eireann:

'Monday night & Tuesday: Stormy conditions are expected to develop Monday night and for Tuesday, as another Atlantic storm passes close to our northwestern coast, bringing very stormy conditions countrywide, with a spell of heavy rain. The heavy rain will turn showery on Tuesday, but some heavy or thundery downpours are likely and some wintry falls possible later in the day. Very severe and damaging winds are expected but winds should ease overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.'

Unusually severe update. I know this weekend is to be got through, but I'm casting one eye at this one too. Conveyor belt Atlantic still in full swing....

Are the damaging winds going to be confined to the North West coast though or will they be countrywide I wonder....time will tell

maquiladora

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A 1136 update from met eireann warns of severe and damaging winds Monday night/Tuesday countywide.

Thats the same outlook forecast from 5am based on yesterday's 12Z ECM. On the latest ECM that storm is now shown to impact northern France, not Ireland.

Old run :



New run :

billie1b

Mince Pie wrote: »

Hi, sorry to be a pain but boyfriend is flying in to dublin airport tonight for around 9pm. Can anyone tell me what the craic is with winds this evening and if theres a likelihood the plane will be redirected?

The forecast for wind between 18:00 - 00:00 tonight is blowing between 25-30kt with gusts of betwen 40-47kt, really depends on if there is a break between the gusts, wind sheer and if the direction changes. The direction forecast at the moment is for 140 degrees. Might not cause any problems but could cause lots of problems, it really is hard to say

maquiladora

Model vs. satellite at 9am. Pretty close match, a bit further east and maybe a little further north than the model.

TheMilkyPirate

Anyone got a link to the HIRLAM, Lost my bookmarks

maquiladora

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Anyone got a link to the HIRLAM, Lost my bookmarks

http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,419

Iancar29

* Met Éireann now have hourly interval HIRLAM forecasts *

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

vicwatson

Lumi wrote: »

Mod Note

There has been a misunderstanding here.
All that has changed in relation to the warning levels is the following
1. We have altered the colours to mirror the Met Eireann three stage warning system; yellow, orange, red. The levels have been set against a blue background to enhance the visibility of the yellow warning.

2. Following feedback the text has been changed - the contentious 'seek shelter ' has been removed and each level has the same wording as the Met Eireann warnings

3. MTC, Maq and the other experienced posters will continue to dictate the warning level and thread title as they have always done - nothing has changed in that regard

Perhaps MT should have access to up/downgrade the warning system as he sees fit, rather than having to request a mod to do it, a mod might not always be available for a couple of hours.

It might just be easier to allow MT access to this (that's if he wants of course )

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

* Met Éireann now have hourly interval HIRLAM forecasts *

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

This is a great new addition to the site.

Embedded thunderstorms in the front.

Oscar Bravo

Orange alert on The Gale warning now on met

cyclops999

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Orange alert on The Gale warning now on met

Orange Level for Marine still Yellow Level for national weather

Villain

Water levels for Rivers and harbours available from OPW now at http://waterlevel.ie/

cyclops999

Looking very impressive seems like its winding up nicely:http://www.sat24.com/?culture=en

JanuarySnowstor

It looks further North to me than what models were projecting. Expect the 12's to nudge it further North which is bad news for the South

John.Icy

EDIT {probably best if I shouldn't, don't want to start things}

Stormy times ahead, eh.

mickger844posts

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It looks further North to me than what models were projecting. Expect the 12's to nudge it further North which is bad news for the South

It definitely looks that bit further North than modelled. It will be interesting to see its track in the next few hours or so. Looks impressive on the latest Sat images.
Current conditions here in Waterford City are cloudy with an Average wind of 20km/h gusting to 40km/h.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

maquiladora

Nice appearance on satellite.

ninebeanrows

Any link for pressure records?

Could see pressure down to near 940hPa in some southwestern stations later on.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Any link for pressure records?

Could see pressure down to near 940hPa in some southwestern stations later on.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-extremes.asp

Not sure when the February record is from but these go back to 1838 at least since thats when the November record is from.