Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

ninebeanrows

12z GFS places winds further south if anything compared to 6z.

6am tomorrow:

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-extremes.asp

Not sure when the February record is from but these go back to 1838 at least since thats when the November record is from.

We've got a crack at 942hPa for sure.

JanuarySnowstor

12z gfs identical to earlier run.
Stormy in Kerry, Cork Waterford and Wexford.
An orange alert I would expect is imminent here by Met Eireann

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM still showing storm force winds along the southwest and south coasts but not until tomorrow afternoon-evening.

JanuarySnowstor

Ukmo a tad further north and a tad deeper
indeed at 24hrs its stormy across the southern half of the country. This should now be an orange alert for sure down here with further coastal damage probable

maquiladora

I wouldn't like to be making a forecast for after the weekend, lots of lows flying around deepening/phasing close by with the potential of being in the firing line at times.

ninebeanrows

Thought GFS had dropped any storm but then puts this over us, but still over 120hrs away.

ninebeanrows

Now, that's a storm.



Have never seen this before, a 110kt wind barb at the 850hPa level!

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

Now, that's a storm.

Umbrella not much good that day...

ninebeanrows

UKM developing the first wave more than the GFS again and has it as a threatening low @ 96hrs.

maquiladora

Yeah that's the strongest GFS storm for a while. Sustained winds in mph...



Very unlikely to happen exactly like that, but with several lows spinning around next week and the possibility of cyclogenesis happening close to or even over us then something like that could happen at some stage.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah that's the strongest GFS storm for a while. Sustained winds in mph...


Very unlikely to happen exactly like that, but with several lows spinning around next week and the possibility of cyclogenesis happening close to or even over us then something like that could happen at some stage.

anything close to that sustained windspeed would cause a lot of damage. seems a forecasting nightmare as you said after the weekend.

Xenji

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah that's the strongest GFS storm for a while. Sustained winds in mph...



Very unlikely to happen exactly like that, but with several lows spinning around next week and the possibility of cyclogenesis happening close to or even over us then something like that could happen at some stage.

Would be no fun at all in Mayo

swampgas

Wind and rain picking up here in West Cork. The power dropped out two or three times for a few seconds but (thankfully) came back on again, which seems a bit odd as the wind isn't that strong yet. Might be a long night.

JanuarySnowstor

Ok folks next storm is on our doorstep and ive a feeling most are under estimating it esp the Southern brigade. Am going for a max gust of at least 85mph somewhere between Cork airport, roches pt and Valentia

weisses

Xenji wrote: »

Would be no fun at all in Mayo

Then i suggest you drive down to where its going to get worst and enjoy yourself

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ok folks next storm is on our doorstep and ive a feeling most are under estimating it esp the Southern brigade. Am going for a max gust of at least 85mph somewhere between Cork airport, roches pt and Valentia

will be interesting what the ECM shows. Met eireann still have only a yellow warning up.

Mr Cumulonimbus

Weathercheck wrote: »

Have never seen this before, a 110kt wind barb at the 850hPa level!

munsterlegend

weisses wrote: »

Then i suggest you drive down to where its going to get worst and enjoy yourself

I'd wait a few days though! every run brings changes.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

will be interesting what the ECM shows. Met eireann still have only a yellow warning up.

HIRLAM is more useful than the ECM for short range forecasting.

ECM will be interesting for next week though...

Yellow seems right for today, but I can see them changing it to orange on the southwest coast for tomorrow.

Oneiric 3

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah that's the strongest GFS storm for a while. Sustained winds in mph...



Very unlikely to happen exactly like that, but with several lows spinning around next week and the possibility of cyclogenesis happening close to or even over us then something like that could happen at some stage.

Do the weather gods despise me that much?? :(

Tactical

West Limerick.

Light rain.

Winds 13 to 15km/h gusting 20km/h. Southerly.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

HIRLAM is more useful than the ECM for short range forecasting.

ECM will be interesting for next week though...

Yellow seems right for today, but I can see them changing it to orange on the southwest coast for tomorrow.

is it going a bit further north in your view than originally predicted? will keep an eye on hirlam - how often is that updated?

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Do the weather gods despise me that much?? :(

I'm sure you'd be happy about 3 hours after that point...

TheMilkyPirate

Can anyone in cork or waterford confirm if the rain is heavy or not, Debating whether to head out here and would be helpful to know what's on the way

shmaupel

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah that's the strongest GFS storm for a while. Sustained winds in mph...



Very unlikely to happen exactly like that, but with several lows spinning around next week and the possibility of cyclogenesis happening close to or even over us then something like that could happen at some stage.

Quick question.

Have some family who were about 3 inches from flooding in Limerick City last Saturday. Even though tides are lower next week, does anyone have any thoughts on the kind of storm surge 77mph sustained winds up the Shannon estuary would cause, however unlikely!

Thank you.

Oneiric 3

Weathercheck wrote: »

Any link for pressure records?

Could see pressure down to near 940hPa in some southwestern stations later on.

largepants

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Can anyone in cork or waterford confirm if the rain is heavy or not, Debating whether to head out here and would be helpful to know what's on the way

Heavy rain in East Cork with pick picking up. Nasty enough at the moment.

alfa beta

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Can anyone in cork or waterford confirm if the rain is heavy or not, Debating whether to head out here and would be helpful to know what's on the way

moderate rain and force 5-6 wind here on coast between youghal and dungarvan - occasional heavier pulses seem to be getting more frequent and wind gradually getting gustier - will be an unpleasant evening here.

CB19Kevo

Lashing rain in South East Kerry at the moment.
Gusts strong as well, Are people underestimating this i wonder, Would have expected ME to have gone Orange for at least Cork/Kerry.