Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

Speak Now

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Can anyone in cork or waterford confirm if the rain is heavy or not, Debating whether to head out here and would be helpful to know what's on the way

Lashing rain now in Waterford im sorry to report.

Oscar Bravo

Evening Update from Met Eireann

Becoming wet and windy everywhere this evening and early tonight. The rain will clear to showers later in the night but southerly winds will remain strong and blustery. Lowest temperatures of 3 to 5 degrees.


Tomorrow

Showers will be widespread tomorrow, many of them heavy and merging to longer spells of rain at times. Southwesterly winds will be very blustery across Munster and south Leinster, but it will be less windy elsewhere. Highest temperatures around 7 or 8 degrees.

Outlook

Outlook is for a continuation of the very disturbed weather. Further periods of heavy rain are expected with a continuing danger of flooding
A further stormy period is likely Monday night and Tuesday.

Saturday Night: Winds will strengthen on Saturday night and will become strong and blustery in many areas, with further heavy and at times prolonged showers. Overnight lows of 2 to 4 degrees and frost should be confined to sheltered areas.

Sunday: It is likely to stay very showery and windy on Sunday also, with further heavy showers or longer spells of rain, especially in southwestern and western counties. Occasional showers will continue in western and northern counties on Sunday night and some could be wintry on higher ground, but it will be drier further east. Frost is likely, where skies are clear especially in eastern and southern counties.

Monday: There will be some dry, bright conditions in places on Monday morning, but showers are likely in western areas and wet and windy weather will move in from the Atlantic later in the day.

Monday night & Tuesday: Stormy conditions are expected to develop Monday night and for Tuesday, as another Atlantic storm passes close to our northwestern coast, bringing very stormy conditions countrywide, with a spell of heavy rain. The heavy rain will turn showery on Tuesday, but some heavy or thundery downpours are likely and some wintry falls possible later in the day. Very severe and damaging winds are expected but winds should ease overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

Wednesday Continuing very disturbed, Wednesday may start cold, bright and dry in places, but further heavy rain is expected later in the day or Wednesday night, with the risk of some more wintry falls in parts of the west and north.

Marine Weather Warnings



STATUS ORANGE

Gale Warning

1. South to southeast gales this evening and early tonight on all Irish coastal waters and on the Irish Sea.

2. Winds veering westerly will increase tomorrow morning strong gale to storm force 10 on coasts from Carlingford Lough to Roches Point to Slyne Head and on the Irish Sea.

Issued:
Friday 07 February 2014 17:00

maquiladora

shmaupel wrote: »

Quick question.

Have some family who were about 3 inches from flooding in Limerick City last Saturday. Even though tides are lower next week, does anyone have any thoughts on the kind of storm surge 77mph sustained winds up the Shannon estuary would cause, however unlikely!

Thank you.

I'm not an expert on tidal surges, but that model is showing a rapidly deepening low so I don't think there would be much time for a significant surge to build up and then as you say normal tides will be a lot lower so that should cancel out any surge that happens.

oak5548

I have to drive to the midlands early tomorrow morning.
Am I going to die?

Oscar Bravo

1700. Kinsale energy 49kts.Sherkin Gust of 48kts. 971hpa at Valentia and Mace Head.

maquiladora

CB19Kevo wrote: »

Lashing rain in South East Kerry at the moment.
Gusts strong as well, Are people underestimating this i wonder, Would have expected ME to have gone Orange for at least Cork/Kerry.

Yellow warning is for gusts up to 110 km/h. Highest gust at 5pm is 88 km/h and thats right on the coast at Sherkin, so no need for Orange at the moment.

Looks more windy there tomorrow though.

Gremlinertia

Wind and rain have picked up in Galway city area, nothing remarkable yet, but definite increase in power.

shmaupel

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm not an expert on tidal surges, but that model is showing a rapidly deepening low so I don't think there would be much time for a significant surge to build up and then as you say normal tides will be a lot lower so that should cancel out any surge that happens.

Cheers Maq.

I hadn't thought about the time it takes for surges to build up.

munsterlegend

oak5548 wrote: »

I have to drive to the midlands early tomorrow morning.
Am I going to die?

i think only weather predictions are made here.

mickger844posts

Heavy rain here in Waterford City. Wind averaging 32km/h with a Max Gust of 52km/h

www.waterfordcityweather.com

oak5548

munsterlegend wrote: »

i think only weather predictions are made here.

It was a joke. I'm asking is it going to be extremely dangerous to drive?

munsterlegend

oak5548 wrote: »

It was a joke. I'm asking is it going to be extremely dangerous to drive?

i know what it was. i would think drive slowly and carefully - nothing too extreme is forecasted for the midlands.

Tactical

oak5548 wrote: »

I have to drive to the midlands early tomorrow morning.
Am I going to die?

Unfortunately at some stage yes. It happens to us all.

Wind and rain picking up here in county Roscommon , getting stronger and stronger.

It was lovely this morning!

Rock Lesnar

Judging by the rainfall radar chart it should be raining here for about an hour.....there hasnt been a drop and long may it last.

eastmayo

Met eireanns forecast was in radio 1 a few minutes ago and they said it looks like we are going to miss the storm on Monday nite

Villain

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Judging by the rainfall radar chart it should be raining here for about an hour.....there hasnt been a drop and long may it last.

Radar showing only light drizzle in your area, heaviest rain is arriving in SouthWest now as expected.

ninebeanrows

Looking @ ECMWF 96hrs, very different to UKM and even GFS with limited storm threat to 108hrs.

Lots to be resolved in storm placement/track/intensity @ that range.

snowstorm2013

Met eireann now saying no storm for Ireland on Monday. I have a suspicion that next week will be cool and breezy and boring.

JanuarySnowstor

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looking @ ECMWF 96hrs, very different to UKM and even GFS with limited storm threat to 108hrs.

Lots to be resolved in storm placement/track/intensity @ that range.

Replaced by snow threat as very cold uppers move in

Rock Lesnar

Villain wrote: »

Radar showing only light drizzle in your area, heaviest rain is arriving in SouthWest now as expected.

The light drizzle has been replaced by heavy enough Rain now

M.T. Cranium

Seems like I went off on a bit of a tangent as far as the levels were concerned, having misunderstood some parts of a message that I received. Anyway, the system will probably work out through communication back and forth, my guess is that we will be at the lower end of level 2 conditions in parts of the south and west by late tonight and after a bit of a lull, once again during the mid-day and afternoon hours Saturday.

I am still looking over all the 12z output to make some sense of what range of outcomes are possible Monday to Wednesday. All I can really say there is that there is a strong chance of a major windstorm in the period but exactly when it strikes seems to have the various models all over the spectrum. The confusion is no doubt generated by very scattered bits and pieces of energy upstream. A couple of days ago there was a major snowstorm being advertised for Washington DC on Sunday, then that changed to a light snowfall on most models.

It rather reminds me of that situation in Dec 2011 (I think) when all models were showing an intense low at 120h that never materialized. This one probably will materialize but I wouldn't want to bet the farm on which day yet.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looking @ ECMWF 96hrs, very different to UKM and even GFS with limited storm threat to 108hrs.

Lots to be resolved in storm placement/track/intensity @ that range.

Yes, not much point looking at each operational run seriously beyond the weekend.

billie1b

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, not much point looking at each operational run seriously beyond the weekend.

Maq, firstly, thanks to the guys and yourself for a great thread and spot on predictions, I take the warnings with a pinch of salt (as I think everyone should) but in fairness every warning ye have given has been spot on.
Quick question, can't for the life of me read the charts, is there any rain (heavy) due in Dublin west over the weekend, the last high winds took my dog run (wooden) and gate (wooden) out of it, need to rebuild it.
Probably sounds stupid to some but id prefer to do it in drier weather than up to my knees in muck and soaked.
Thanks in advance billie

oak5548

oak5548 wrote: »

I have to drive to the midlands early tomorrow morning.
Am I going to die?

No, the natives are quite friendly! :P

maquiladora

billie1b wrote: »

Maq, firstly, thanks to the guys and yourself for a great thread and spot on predictions, I take the warnings with a pinch of salt (as I think everyone should) but in fairness every warning ye have given has been spot on.
Quick question, can't for the life of me read the charts, is there any rain (heavy) due in Dublin west over the weekend, the last high winds took my dog run (wooden) and gate (wooden) out of it, need to rebuild it.
Probably sounds stupid to some but id prefer to do it in drier weather than up to my knees in muck and soaked.
Thanks in advance billie

You should see some heavy rain this evening, tomorrow then there will be some big showers around, but that will be hit or miss.

billie1b

maquiladora wrote: »

You should see some heavy rain this evening, tomorrow then there will be some big showers around, but that will be hit or miss.

Cool thanks, appreciate it

SpaceTime

Heavy rain and worsening winds in Cork City.
It's just generally a cold, wet, miserable looking evening best spent in front of the telly with a nice big fire!

uck51js9zml2yt

River Water levels provided by the OPW.

The readings according to RTE News are in real time

http://waterlevel.ie/

Villain

Braylen Mealy Blowgun wrote: »

River Water levels provided by the OPW.

The readings according to RTE News are in real time

http://waterlevel.ie/

Shared that earlier, not real time but regular updates although sadly it appears the OPW don't have the servers required for the demand the site is getting so you get a lot of errors as you click through the site.