Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

John.Icy

Anyone explain the very off behavior of this band of rain as it gets to Dublin? Most of Dublin just shown as dry on the radar loop despite the constant incoming of the front?? Can confirm in my part of Dublin under the blank area that it isn't raining or hasn't been for awhile now (other than the odd spit of drizzle)

aboyro

rain coming down hard here right now. its lashing

cyclops999

Lashing in Athlone. Check out conditions live on RTE 2 rough night for rugby.

Martin_D

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Can anyone in cork or waterford confirm if the rain is heavy or not, Debating whether to head out here and would be helpful to know what's on the way

Drove from Cork to Waterford 5.30 - atrocious rain all the way

ninebeanrows

John.Icy wrote: »

Anyone explain the very off behavior of this band of rain as it gets to Dublin? Most of Dublin just shown as dry on the radar loop despite the constant incoming of the front?? Can confirm in my part of Dublin under the blank area that it isn't raining or hasn't been for awhile now (other than the odd spit of drizzle)

Mountains come into play, coastal parts like here though will still get the rain as it pushes in from Irish Sea.

Steopo

Luckily we're past the spring high tides given tomorrows predicted swell, nevertheless there'll be some big waves around

http://magicseaweed.com/news/the-50-year-storm/6070/

jkforde

MÉ's new short range forecast has 64+ knots off the SW at 3am-4am tomorrow morning
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

teddybones

Ashford weather station reporting gust of 72kph at 19:48 which seems weird as that was roughly as high as it got on the last storm but I thought this one wasn't to hit Wicklow as bad as last time. Anyway is wet and wild on Wicklow coast at the moment.

M.T. Cranium

At the rate this is gaining latitude (17N 53W) it would appear possible that the low never makes a landfall as such, which will keep west Munster in a fairly constant strong wind from midnight to late afternoon. Further north most will notice a dip in wind speeds after about 0300h lasting until whatever time the centre passes Belmullet. Then the wind speeds will gradually increase again for north Clare, Galway and eventually Mayo.

Currently estimating peak gusts around 60 kts but potential for 65 kts in west Munster. Fortunately the astronomical tides are lower now but some minor damage could be anticipated in west-facing harbours particularly in Kerry and Clare.

Belmullet is now looking like the station to watch for the lowest sub-950 mb pressure reading, around 09z to 12z. It won't likely break the all-time record on land which I understand was 942 mb in Dec 1886. The 1839 storm was probably about the same (on land), possbily a bit lower at Malin Head. Tomorrow's event does not have the same sort of strong core but will be more of a moderate windstorm by comparison, however, it will last most of the day and I expect some scattered reports of minor tree damage and the odd roof tile damage etc. It may not be very severe in any part of Ulster due to the track of the low.

Villain

teddybones wrote: »

Ashford weather station reporting gust of 72kph at 19:48 which seems weird as that was roughly as high as it got on the last storm but I thought this one wasn't to hit Wicklow as bad as last time. Anyway is wet and wild on Wicklow coast at the moment.

Sounds correct I got 70.4 km/h at 7:28pm, mind you I hit 101.9 km/h earlier in the week, the high-res charts had showed an early wave of high gusts in the East the front pushed across with more again later

teddybones

Villain wrote: »

Sounds correct I got 70.4 km/h at 7:28pm, mind you I hit 101.9 km/h earlier in the week, the high-res charts had showed an early wave of high gusts in the East the front pushed across with more again later

Actually just looking at WRF and it is spot on however in recent storms Ashford usually gets gusts about 10 to 20km less than is predicted as highest gusts on gfs etc. Not tonight clearly!

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann 2038 update

Heavy rain clearing eastwards early tonight with heavy or thundery showers following from the west. Winds will be south or southwesterly in direction. They'll be very strong in coastal areas with severe gusts developing on southwest and south coasts from midnight onwards. Lowest temperatures of 3 to 5 degrees.


Tomorrow

Widespread heavy showers on Saturday, some thundery. Westerly winds will be fresh to strong in many areas, but will be extremely strong over Munster with some severe gusts in exposed places, especially along coasts. Highest temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees.

Outlook

Outlook is for a continuation of the very disturbed weather. Further periods of heavy rain are expected with a continuing danger of flooding
A further stormy period is likely Monday night and Tuesday.

Saturday Night: Winds will strengthen on Saturday night and will become strong and blustery in many areas, with further heavy and at times prolonged showers. Overnight lows of 2 to 4 degrees and frost should be confined to sheltered areas.

Sunday: It is likely to stay very showery and windy on Sunday also, with further heavy showers or longer spells of rain, especially in southwestern and western counties. Occasional showers will continue in western and northern counties on Sunday night and some could be wintry on higher ground, but it will be drier further east. Frost is likely, where skies are clear especially in eastern and southern counties.

Monday: There will be some dry, bright conditions in places on Monday morning, but showers are likely in western areas and wet and windy weather will move in from the Atlantic later in the day.

Monday night & Tuesday: Stormy conditions are expected to develop Monday night and for Tuesday, as another Atlantic storm passes close to our northwestern coast, bringing very stormy conditions countrywide, with a spell of heavy rain. The heavy rain will turn showery on Tuesday, but some heavy or thundery downpours are likely and some wintry falls possible later in the day. Very severe and damaging winds are expected but winds should ease overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

Wednesday Continuing very disturbed, Wednesday may start cold, bright and dry in places, but further heavy rain is expected later in the day or Wednesday night, with the risk of some more wintry falls in parts of the west and north.

maquiladora

Orange warning for Munster, Wexford and Galway from 10pm tonight until 8pm tomorrow.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Munster, Wexford and Galway

A storm depression will generate very strong winds at times overnight and on Saturday, especially over Munster

Southwest to south winds with mean speeds of 55 to 75 km/hr will gust to speeds of 100 to 130 km/hr at times overnight.

They'll become West to southwest on Saturday and will be strongest on Munster and south Wexford coasts.

Issued:
Thursday 06 February 2014 13:00
Valid:
Friday 07 February 2014 22:00 to Saturday 08 February 2014 20:00

And a Yellow warning for Dublin, Louth, Wicklow and Meath :

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Dublin, Louth, Wicklow and Meath

Southerly winds with mean speeds of 45 to 65 km/hr and gusts of 80 to 110 km/hr

Issued:
Friday 07 February 2014 21:00
Valid:
Friday 07 February 2014 21:00 to Saturday 08 February 2014 15:00

pad199207

Gusting 76KPH here now

snowstorm2013

This evening Met eireann were saying that Monday's storm wont hit Ireland but their latest online outlook still mentions very severe and damaging winds on Monday! Are there questionmarks about mMonday's storm?

Oscar Bravo

A nice windy night across the country with Gusts reported on almost all of the met locations with Sherkin topping the 2100 reports with a gust of 48kts.

maquiladora

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

This evening Met eireann were saying that Monday's storm wont hit Ireland but their latest online outlook still mentions very severe and damaging winds on Monday! Are there questionmarks about mMonday's storm?

The extended outlook part of the forecast is only updated once a day. It's from 5am this morning and is based on the 12Z ECM from yesterday, it's been outdated by more recent model runs which have dropped that intense storm on Monday but there is a lot of uncertainty over next week overall.

Padraig Mor

Had been a bit of a damp squib here in Cork harbour, but wind has picked up significantly in the last 5 minutes or so. Rain starting again too.

ninebeanrows

Looking forward, there appears to be two upcoming potential slots for severe weather.

Monday night into Tuesday morning sees a disturbance racing up the west coast which could develop rapidly and bring severe winds to parts.

Then there is a more significant threat as we move towards Wednesday PM as potential for a significant wind-storm develops from a rapidly intensifying wave in the Atlantic.

mickger844posts

Main band has passed through dropping 16.9mm of rain. Max gust a rather modest 68km/h but this should be bettered overnight.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

Red Pepper

Its very calm here in west Galway. Hard to believe its going to get wild soon. I am just back from a walk to Lough Corrib and it is serene down there. A slight ripple.

JanuarySnowstor

18z is showing an even stronger gradient tomorrow.
I can understand lack of interest as its a south coast event but places like cork could see some v stormy condtions by tomorrow lunchtime.
I stick with my punt that the south coast will see 80mph+

Harps

Red Pepper wrote: »

Its very calm here in west Galway. Hard to believe its going to get wild soon. I am just back from a walk to Lough Corrib and it is serene down there. A slight ripple.

Galway shouldn't get too windy, the only place that's going to see any potentially damaging winds will be the south coast

Rain continuing to be an issue over the weekend, upwards of 100mm on high ground

Oscar Bravo

961hpa now at Belmullet, watch it fall over the next few hours.

maquiladora

Looking at the pressure charts on new short range HIRLAM output on met.ie, there seems to be a little secondary feature that spins up along the southwest/west coast in the early hours of the morning, tightening the gradient a bit. I think that might be why Galway was included in the Orange warning.

Red Pepper

maquiladora wrote: »

Looking at the pressure charts on new short range HIRLAM output on met.ie, there seems to be a little secondary feature that spins up along the southwest/west coast in the early hours of the morning, tightening the gradient a bit. I think that might be why Galway was included in the Orange warning.

Well bring it on so Mr Storm. We shall defend our lovely county, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.

Kerrydude1981

So is it tomorrow morning we'l have a bit of action here in The Kingdom?

Getting a few strong gusts and heavy showers at the moment but noting too serious.

aboyro

Red Pepper wrote: »

Well bring it on so Mr Storm. We shall defend our lovely county, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.

not much left of the beaches

mountainy man

Lightning and nice long roll of thunder here.

maquiladora

Red Pepper wrote: »

Well bring it on so Mr Storm. We shall defend our lovely county, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.

I think you're expecting a bit too much from this. Will only be a breeze by Galway standards.