Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

snowstorm2013

I so relieved to hear no more storms this week.
I need to carry out major repairs on my shed roof which involves stripping one side. I was afraid to do it last week even though the storms were not bad in sligo. A neighbour of mine told me that the forecast is for calm cold frosty weather. Delighted as the non stop gales is driving us mad! Will get the forecast at 1

Hooter23

On the farming forecast there she said there would be no more storms this week I dont know think there still could be the possibilty we shall see......

aboyro

i was surprised to see little activity forecast for the coming week especially when it looked like we had the mother of all storms slamming into france on tuesday. ah well if them low pressures keep spinning into biscay the all south coast surfers should be smiling!!!!!!!:D

Kristopherus

Hooter23 wrote: »

On the farming forecast there she said there would be no more storms this week I dont know think there still could be the possibilty we shall see......

I agree. What she said about next wk/e was nothing like what weathercheck has outlined in post 938 above.

ninebeanrows

I certainly would not be confident on no storms this week, a glance at the ECMWF ensembles stamps at 96hrs show there is a high chance of a deep low developing near or over Ireland.

Hooter23

She will probably have a Michael Fish moment and ireland will be flattened next week ........:pac:

maquiladora

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

I so relieved to hear no more storms this week.
I need to carry out major repairs on my shed roof which involves stripping one side. I was afraid to do it last week even though the storms were not bad in sligo. A neighbour of mine told me that the forecast is for calm cold frosty weather. Delighted as the non stop gales is driving us mad! Will get the forecast at 1

There is considerable uncertainty about weather conditions affecting Ireland after Thursday next and no definitive statements can be made as yet. However, there is potential for further wind storms and periods of heavy rain.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

There isn't any significant looking windstorm on the latest ECM, UKMO or GFS. But that doesn't mean one won't pop up in the next day or so. So keep an eye out for changes in the forecast.

ninebeanrows

First model out is the GME

Interesting feature in Irish Sea as early as 42hrs



Then it develops the potential Wednesday night storm to our southwest.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

First model out is the GME

Interesting feature in Irish Sea as early as 42hrs



Then it develops the potential Wednesday night storm to our southwest.

Yeah, although the GME is a notriously bad model when it comes to lows, it almost always overcranks them.

Only yesterday it had a severe storm approaching the south coast for Monday night :



Will be interesting to see what the major models do with Thursday over the next few runs.

howlinwolf

id take a windstorm on Thursday if it meant the next 3 days were relatively dry...the non stop rain day after day is really depressing, don't mind too much havin a stormy night as long as we get a few decent days also.....met eireann have really back tracked on there forcasts for next week, the models must have seriously flip flopped

ninebeanrows

Rapidly developing storm to our south @ 66hrs, i wonder where it will track.

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

id take a windstorm on Thursday if it meant the next 3 days were relatively dry...the non stop rain day after day is really depressing, don't mind too much havin a stormy night as long as we get a few decent days also.....met eireann have really back tracked on there forcasts for next week, the models must have seriously flip flopped

I'm afraid it looks like there will be another band of rain, heavy at times, crossing the country tomorrow night into Tuesday morning...

patneve2

Weathercheck wrote: »

Rapidly developing storm to our south @ 66hrs, i wonder where it will track.

well done for highlighting that potential from the ensembles before

ninebeanrows

-Looks like this one is taken into England.

Lots of changes in the track & intensity of this depression will take place in coming 24-48hrs.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Rapidly developing storm to our south @ 66hrs, i wonder where it will track.

Looks like a northern France/southern England track at that angle. It's certainly been the winter of southerly tracking lows.

ninebeanrows

Looks like 12z Ops are picking up the potential.

The UKM has picked up the disturbance @ 72hrs

-- In future output if the low is developed earlier the track will deviate further north as a result.

Ireland still very much under threat from this feature/storm.

maquiladora

12Z GFS has a second low bringing strong winds for northern France/southern England on Friday.

It seems the large area of low pressure in the Atlantic south of Iceland is preventing these lows from taking a more traditional northern track.




And just for fun...showing very heavy precip over Ireland from this, with uppers cold enough to produce a major dumping of snow on high ground and perhaps even to lower levels at times.

ninebeanrows

Most ENS brining a storm through southern England, most keep risk to southeast Ireland or off-shore.

Interesting few days ahead.

Hooter23

There was mention of a squall line not sure if it said this evening/night on the farming forecast......

Harps

Strong storm for Wednesday is back on it seems, going to be a nightmare for forecasters this week!

ninebeanrows

Can see the Met Eireann forecast being a little different in the morning..

72hr ECM

maquiladora

12Z ECM has a more intense low than the GFS and UKMO, probably as a result of that it has it tracking left sooner, taking it over Ireland instead of the UK/France.

Severe winds for the southwest here :



The 850 winds are off the scale on Meteociel, probably around 100 knots. That would suggest surface gusts of up to around 160 km/h and even higher if there was a sting jet there.

Anyway, just one run of one model...at the moment it's showing something more intense and on a different track to the other main models, so has to be taken with a pinch of salt until there is more model agreement.

ninebeanrows

A blend of the solutions from UKM/ECM/GFS would give a track up the middle of the country with southern half of country most at risk of significant winds.

@ just 72hrs out, there will have to be good agreement by this time tomorrow.

A very interesting few days ahead for sure!

ninebeanrows

Looking at some of the forecasts on the RTE player there I cannot help but feel people will be extremely surprised if an Orange/Red Warning is issued for Wednesday!

- Postage stamps will be extremely important tonight, we will have the 72hr time slot available to view so should get a good idea of the variety of solutions possible.

cyclops999

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looking at some of the forecasts on the RTE player there I cannot help but feel people will be extremely surprised if an Orange/Red Warning is issued for Wednesday!

Got the feeling that the 6one forecast was very veiled as if something is coming but were not sure how bad yet

DOCARCH

cyclops999 wrote: »

Got the feeling that the 6one forecast was very veiled as if something is coming but were not sure how bad yet

Yeah...Evelyn unusually vague and muted, but, you could see the excitment in her eyes! Will be interesting to see if she updates forecast later.

ninebeanrows

Here is what the satellite could look like if the ECMWF 72hr came off.

- The scorpions tail into the southwest would give some damaging winds.

maquiladora

12Z ECM ENS mean at 72-96 hours seems to indicate the majority of the members went for a more southerly tracking low than the operational run.


ECM op run :




ECM ensemble mean :

ninebeanrows

Yea more than likely the Ensembles will be further south as operational quite northwest in its track.

Also it is run at a higher resolution so will pick up on the depth of the storm better, making it deeper and therefore tracking further northwest compared to the less deep lows on the coarse ENS suite.

- Still a significant Ensemble mean @ 72hrs. Indicating decent support for a storm of some kind

----Of course when needed the postage stamps are taking their time updating this evening!

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yea more than likely the Ensembles will be further south as operational quite northwest in its track.

Also it is run at a higher resolution so will pick up on the depth of the storm better, making it deeper and therefore tracking further northwest compared to the less deep lows on the coarse ENS suite.

- Still a significant Ensemble mean @ 72hrs. Indicating decent support for a storm of some kind

----Of course when needed the postage stamps are taking their time updating this evening!

Very similar to the GEFS mean, but 5mb deeper. I think a track close to or over southern Ireland with an intensity halfway between ECM and GFS is the best bet at the moment.