Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

Steopo

It's like the old days before those fancy computer models - 3 days out and nobody seems to really know what the weathers going to be like

maquiladora

15km resolution FIM has a 964mb low running along the south coast and into Cardigan Bay.

We'll see what the 18Z GFS does shortly, though I doubt this will be nailed until the 12Z's tomorrow.

Harps

WRF has it tracking right over Kerry and Cork with the strongest winds well offshore. Thats looking like the most likely solution bit no real consistency yet so we'll have to wait until tomorrow

alfa beta

miserable here again on west waterford coast

lashing rain at the mo and very gusty

I see roches point showing a 42 knot gust for 21.00 - seems a lot windier here than in the rest of the country.

ninebeanrows

GFS 18z similar track to its 12z, quite a lot further south than the ECMWF Op.

@66hrs

ninebeanrows

Still this places quite strong winds in parts of eastern Ireland as the storm exits east.

I would think the track is likely to head slightly further north in future model output, not quite to the extent of the ECM but i still would places parts of southern Ireland in the danger zone from this low.

ninebeanrows

Low placement @ 72hrs on GFS.

My educated guess is this could be centered near Dublin on verification and slightly deeper.

I must say I am quite worried about this system now, certainly has the potential to be a potent wind-storm.

maquiladora

18Z GFS takes a track similar to the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECM ENS mean, sliding up along the south coast of Ireland sending violent storm force winds onto the coasts of southwest England and Wales.

At the moment this looks like the most realistic track, ECM op run looks a bit of an outlier. Not nailed yet though.

ninebeanrows

-- Also thought i would just flag there could be a brief period of strong winds in the northwest tomorrow night as a developing low centre brushes the north-west coast.

If you paid any trust to the NAVGEM model (which is not a very accurate model!), there could be some very strong winds.

- But very unlikely for the low to get to this depth.

snowstorm2013

Very confused and annoyed here. Earlier met eireann said no storms this week and even MTs forecast was very benign... now people like Maq and weathercheck etc (all of whom I admire) are showing charts suggesting a stormy midweek period. I have lads coming in on Wednesday to mend a shed roof. Not sure if I should cancel them or not now.

Oscar Bravo

I think with the uncertainty that remains, Evelyn should not have started the forecast after the six 1 by saying theres no sign of any stormy weather this week.

maquiladora

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

Very confused and annoyed here. Earlier met eireann said no storms this week and even MTs forecast was very benign... now people like Maq and weathercheck etc (all of whom I admire) are showing charts suggesting a stormy midweek period. I have lads coming in on Wednesday to mend a shed roof. Not sure if I should cancel them or not now.

Well, there's a chance of some windy weather Monday night into Tuesday morning, though probably nothing too strong. Then there is a risk of some strong winds on Wednesday but that risk is mainly for the south coast area, so if you are in Sligo you stand a better chance of missing any strong winds from that. Keep an eye on the forecast, I'm sure it will be much clearer by tomorrow afternoon.

ninebeanrows

ECMWF Control run quite similar to Op.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!72!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014020912!!/

MrFrisp

RTE Weather is after adding this to the end of their weather forecast.


"There is considerable uncertainty about weather conditions affecting Ireland after Thursday next and no definitive statements can be made as yet. However, there is potential for further wind storms and periods of heavy rain."
.

Oscar Bravo

That was in the forecast on Met.ie all day.

MrFrisp

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

That was in the forecast on Met.ie all day.

Ahh ok..

I didn't get a chance to check that out earlier today.
.

alfa beta

I've noticed a few people mentioning shed repairs in recent posts - I think I'm gone past that stage now.

Here's a 'before and after' that sums up my winter on the south coast!

BEFORE


AFTER

aboyro

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

Very confused and annoyed here. Earlier met eireann said no storms this week and even MTs forecast was very benign... now people like Maq and weathercheck etc (all of whom I admire) are showing charts suggesting a stormy midweek period. I have lads coming in on Wednesday to mend a shed roof. Not sure if I should cancel them or not now.

why cancel them??? unless they are totally nuts they won't be going next or near a roof if the weathers bad. let them make the decision. less likely to charge you for cancelling;)

Oscar Bravo

the start of the late night forecast with Evelyn

Oscar Bravo

On a more serious note for anyone near a radio or Sky 0160 its nearly time for the general and sea area forecast on RTE Radio 1

barney 20v

Steopo wrote: »

It's like the old days before those fancy computer models - 3 days out and nobody seems to really know what the weathers going to be like

No difference even with models IMHO ... Just they now have fancy charts to mull over!

dacogawa

alfa beta wrote: »

I've noticed a few people mentioning shed repairs in recent posts - I think I'm gone past that stage now.

Here's a 'before and after' that sums up my winter on the south coast!

BEFORE


AFTER

Sorry alfa beta but this is what came to mind straight after seeing your pics

The wind really kicked the hell out of your shed! a bunch of cowboys must have built it! :rolleyes:

BorneTobyWilde

alfa beta wrote: »

I've noticed a few people mentioning shed repairs in recent posts - I think I'm gone past that stage now.

Here's a 'before and after' that sums up my winter on the south coast!

BEFORE


AFTER

Dam wolf!
How's the pigs?

force eleven

Not as 'tempestuous' a week according to the Shakesperian MetEireann update this morning. Pinch of salt needed.

ninebeanrows

ECMWF still most northern of all morning output and don't let the 72hr chart kid you a quite potent wind-storm will have tracked across the country @ 60hrs.

South and east most at risk.

ninebeanrows

@ 60hrs the ECMWF has an area of >60kt sustained winds on the southwest coast.

-Quite large % of ECMWF ensembles supporting this more northern track as compared GFS and somehwat UKM.

Likely GFS will edge north in future runs if the ECMWF is correct.

ninebeanrows

Perhaps a new thread for Storm & Snow watch from tonight through to Thursday??

maquiladora

Just within range of the HIRLAM now.

Storm force winds reaching the south/southwest coast and going up the Irish Sea.



Potential string jet would be just off the south coast.



Still some key difference between the models the morning. With less than 3 days to go, impossible to know if Kerry or Cornwall will see the strongest winds.

ninebeanrows

6z GFS edging very slightly further north but still keeping the worst off our south coast. A pretty dangerous system just off our south coast @ 54hrs, if that was on land at that timeframe, would be exceptional windspeeds

ninebeanrows

You can see the swathe of violent winds here, just clipping the south and southeast.