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Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March
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06Z GFS mostly sticking to its guns regarding track and raises the intensity. Sustained winds of 130-140 km/h at sea during it's most intense phase. Hurricane force winds reaching Cornwall, would be a major storm for southwest England and Wales with less severe but still strong winds touching southern coasts areas here at times.
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Weathercheck wrote: »I think the GFS has edged slightly north run by run though MAQ and i would certainly favour a blend towards the ECMWF track if I was issuing Forecasts to public authorities.
The result of a blend would be some rather extreme winds into the south and east as the storm exits east Wednesday afternoon/evening.
(gusts to 70/75kt).
It may have edged north a bit from yesterday, but remarkable consistency between the 0Z and 06Z.
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Looks like it could be a direct hit for southern England at the moment, the last thing Cornwall and Devon will want to hear with the battering they've taken so far this winter. Force 11 winds with 150kph gusts all along the coast
Some similarities to the 1990 Burn's Day storm perhaps. Though it looks like peaking just before it crosses the UK while the 1990 storm was still deepening so probably not as severe. Could well be the most severe storm for those areas since then though.
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1205 update from Met Eireann although they will have to edit Tuesday,as its the same forecast as todays. a very untidy forecast to read.
Today
Heavy, possibly prolonged showers at first, mostly in parts of Ulster and north Leinster will clear eastwards this afternoon. Showers will be well scattered elsewhere with sunny spells. Wet and windy weather will develop later this evening in southwestern and western areas. Highest temperatures of 5 to 8 degrees.
Tonight
Heavy, possibly prolonged showers at first, mostly in parts of Ulster and north Leinster will clear eastwards this afternoon. Showers will be well scattered elsewhere with sunny spells. Wet and windy weather will develop later this evening in southwestern and western areas. Highest temperatures of 5 to 8 degrees.
Tomorrow
Heavy, possibly prolonged showers at first, mostly in parts of Ulster and north Leinster will clear eastwards this afternoon. Showers will be well scattered elsewhere with sunny spells. Wet and windy weather will develop later this evening in southwestern and western areas. Highest temperatures of 5 to 8 degrees.
Outlook
The rest of this week will be rather cold, changeable and unsettled, though not as tempestuous as recent weeks.
Other than a few wintry type showers near west coasts, Tuesday night will be dry, though a widespread sharp ground frost will form.
Rain and strong southwest winds will spread countrywide during Wednesday morning. The rain may be preceded by sleet over hills of the north, but it will clear to showers with localized frost for Wednesday night.
Thursday will be a cool bright and breezy day with a mix of bright sunny spells and well scattered showers. The showers will occur mainly across western counties, and some may be of hail with the risk of sleet.
After a very cold Thursday night with sharp or severe frost, heavy rain will affect the south and east of the country on Friday along with strong east winds.
Next weekend will be cold and changeable with good dry periods, though wintry showers will affect parts of the north and west.0 -
Are we looking at a significant upgrade from Met Eireann later today regarding Wednesday?
Depends on what the models show later, there are still some important differences between the main models. If the current HIRLAM was right, then we'd be looking at red warnings in places on Wednesday.
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maquiladora wrote: »Depends on what the models show later, there are still some important differences between the main models. If the current HIRLAM was right, then we'd be looking at red warnings in places on Wednesday.
if it came further north we could be in big trouble!0 -
Just to quote that MetO forecast
Tomorrow
Heavy, possibly prolonged showers at first, mostly in parts of Ulster and north Leinster will clear eastwards this afternoon. Showers will be well scattered elsewhere with sunny spells. Wet and windy weather will develop later this evening in southwestern and western areas. Highest temperatures of 5 to 8 degrees.
Really does not tie in with the high res forecast maxima!
DOUBLE EDIT
See there forecast has now totally changed for tomorrow - more like what i expected!
Tomorrow
Tomorrow will be a cold, raw day with sunny spells and heavy wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow. The snow especially through western, northern and midland areas, moderate accumulations especially on higher ground. Isolated thunderstorms also.
Feeling very cold in a fresh to strong and gusty westerly wind with afternoon highs of 2 to 4 degrees generally about 5 or 6 degrees near southern coasts.
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maquiladora wrote: »Met Office chief forecaster calling it a "potentially vicious storm" in the briefing to UK weather presenters.
What needs to happen in order for it to be a "potentially vicious storm" here?!
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I know it's the DM but they do have a serious amount of pictures of the devastation this weather is causing across the UK.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2555658/UK-weather-16-areas-South-warned-flooding-danger-lives-Armed-Forces-battle-save-homes.html
Wrexham this morning,
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maquiladora wrote: »12Z HIRLAM is showing quite a strong storm for us.
Looks very severe on that.
GFS coming out and further north compared to 6z so far.
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