Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

fr wishy washy

Funnels where abouts?

whitebriar

Weathercheck wrote: »

Fancy a tornado?

Well considering this is night 2 of my power cut here,my haysheds gone and the big oak tree at the back of the house was last reported by Atc as landing near Aberystwyth somewhere and Rte is playing the death March at the end of every 9 news now... ,A tornado on top of yesterday would be ah Shur mundane

ninebeanrows

Some Gale Force 8/9 onto East coast tomorrow lunchtime for a short period

- Might be interesting by the coast at hight tide near midday (Dublin).

murdig

What is the story with tomorrows storm?

eireannBEAR

murdig wrote: »

What is the story with tomorrows storm?

Despite the dedicated weather posters refusal to answer this question,I found out from an irish weather service that it is going to be nowhere near as bad as wednesdays,Not even close....Thank god!!!

redsteveireland

Looks like it will be a wet drive to Sligo tomorrow so!

patneve2

Weathercheck wrote: »

Some Gale Force 8/9 onto East coast tomorrow lunchtime for a short period

- Might be interesting by the coast at hight tide near midday (Dublin).

Think that people will be surprised by the strength of the wind tomorrow near the coast. Ok, nothing major, but will be very blustery in exposed parts.

some_dose

Weathercheck wrote: »

Fancy a tornado?

http://www.estofex.org/

I have to ask - using the colour warnings, how dangerous would it be to be within an area of pink boundary? What kind of conditions are likely to result in an "extremely severe" risk?

Steopo

some_dose wrote: »

I have to ask - using the colour warnings, how dangerous would it be to be within an area of pink boundary? What kind of conditions are likely to result in an "extremely severe" risk?

Estofex is a european storm forecast experiment to forecast severe convective storms

So there is a 5% to 15% chance of the following happening in SE Ireland tomorrow

Severe convective weather phenomena:
hail with a diameter of at least 2.0 cm
tornado
wind gusts with a speed of at least 25 m/s (92 km/h or about 48.6 knots)
excessive rainfall of at least 60 mm

If it was a Level 3 (pink) then there would be >15% of this happening

Extremely severe convective weather phenomena:
hail with a diameter of at least 5.0 cm
wind gusts with a speed of at least 33 m/s (about 119 km/h or 65 knots), or
a tornado of class F2 or stronger


Threat level 3 is issued when there is a significant threat (probability greater than 15%) of extremely severe convective storms to occur within 40 km radius of a location. Level 3 is rarely issued and implies that a major severe weather outbreak is expected. Examples include the derecho (a thunderstorm system producing widespread extreme wind gusts) that struck a large part of Germany on July 10th 2002. Major tornado outbreaks also require a level 3. An example is the outbreak that occurred on June 25th 1967 across France, Belgium and the Netherlands, and the more recent case of tornadoes and large hail across Poland on August 15th 2008.

ninebeanrows

It is for convective weather.

So large hail-stones, severe convective gusts, likelihood of strong tornado in area, stuff like that.

goat2

which part of the country is in for worst tomorrow

maquiladora

goat2 wrote: »

which part of the country is in for worst tomorrow

Heavy rain nationwide, strongest gusts on and near south and east coasts.

Rock Lesnar

maquiladora wrote: »

Heavy rain nationwide, strongest gusts on and near south and east coasts.

Will it be a fast moving system or is it likely to hang around most of the day.

Weathering

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Kildare, Longford, Westmeath and Meath
A band of heavy rain is expected to move northwards during Friday, and is likely to be preceded by a spell of snow for a time in parts of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster with accumulations of 3 cm in places. The snow will turn to rain later in the day and early Friday night and lying deposits should melt.

Issued:Thursday 13 February 2014 15:00
Valid:Friday 14 February 2014 10:00 to Friday 14 February 2014 17:00

AND

From the met office
An area of rain will move across the UK from the south on Friday afternoon and into the evening. As this rain arrives it will fall as snow above approximately 250 m over England and Scotland, but may fall to low levels for a time in the northern half of Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Temporary accumulations of 2 to 5 cm are possible in places, mainly above 250 m, with up to 10 cm possible over the highest routes in Scotland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...ime=1392336000

guil

Great reading here over the last few days but I'm presuming we won't get winds in Kildare anything like wednesday. I got a few slates replaced at the side of the roof yesterday so hoping they stay put.

brianville

Here we go again. Plenty rain and a good roar from the wind here in bandon

Frigga_92

I heard on the radio it's at yellow alert for wind and orange alert for flooding.

The12thMan

rain band almost passed, in comparison to Wednesdays storm....

northgirl

In complete denial sitting in bed putting the imminent walk to work (across the shakey bridge:D:D:D) off for as long as possible

JanuarySnowstor

High tide was 5:20am this morning in Cork. The tide should be flowing out the harbour now but it isnt. Whats happening is the Easterly gale is pushing it back in with avengence. Very choppy here too.
What all this means is flooding is certain at high tide this evening at 5:30pm.

Bucketing rain too!!

FutureGuy

Thanks everyone for updates here.

Just wondering if there is any update for S. Limerick/N. Cork? We were hit pretty badly and will be spending the day felling trees.

SpaceTime

I'm starting to get really fed up with this weather. Getting very little exercise as it's just do damn wet all the time on the south coast.

mickger844posts

Gust of 83.4km/h recorded here in the last 10 mins. This storm can't be taken too lightly i think.

www.waterfordcityweather.com

northgirl

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

High tide was 5:20am this morning in Cork. The tide should be flowing out the harbour now but it isnt. Whats happening is the Easterly gale is pushing it back in with avengence. Very choppy here too.
What all this means is flooding is certain at high tide this evening at 5:30pm.

Bucketing rain too!!

great look forward to going home tonight too :rolleyes:

KingdomRushed

Met Eireann have an Orange warning on the whole country for Flooding today. That's a new one. Very vague too. Is it a reactionary thing after the criticism they have been subjected to for being a bit stand-offish on what turned out to be (as was well flagged here by lads like WC and Maq) the storm of this century so far?

Or is the whole country actually under orange level threat of flooding?

maquiladora

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Met Eireann have an Orange warning on the whole country for Flooding today. That's a new one. Very vague too. Is it a reactionary thing after the criticism they have been subjected to for being a bit stand-offish on what turned out to be (as was well flagged here by lads like WC and Maq) the storm of this century so far?

Or is the whole country actually under orange level threat of flooding?

Spot flooding, river flooding and coastal flooding all possible from this.

SpaceTime

It's absolutely pouring rain in Cork City right now and the wind is howling.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's flooding.

If this becomes the new normal, I'll have to emigrate. I don't think I could actually live in this kind of weather long term. It's starting to really become more than just 'interesting'.

Macy0161

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Or is the whole country actually under orange level threat of flooding?

I don't know about the rest of the country, but on my commute in I was a bit taken aback by the amount of standing water in the fields and on the roads after last night. Whatever rain there was didn't register enough over night for me to check my station this morning, but I can't imagine there was that much (I was up a couple of times with sick children!). The water table is so high at the moment, it's not going to take much rain to push streams/ rivers/ drains to breaking point imo.

Clamball

Just drove from Cork to Fermoy and the weather conditions are very poor. A lot of driving rain, wind, surface water. The surface water is being swept about by the wind. There were severe cross winds in places and I would really recommend people to slow down.

SpaceTime

The ground is saturated at this stage. Anywhere there isn't enough artificial or natural drainage is likely to have surface water issues.