Atlantic Storm Watch 2014: February/March

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday 4 Feb 1700h
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Thread title changed to level 3 out of concern for severe flood and significant wind damage in exposed locations on south coast this evening. This is not much of a change in thinking here, just a timely upgrade to underscore what experienced posters are saying in that region, fairly obvious signs of coastal flooding and wind speeds exceeding "nuisance" levels and becoming a threat to safety. I am encouraged to read that local authorities are taking the risks very seriously and hope that all turns out for the best.

As far as wind speed is concerned, very strong gusts reported in both Brittany (near 90 kts) and the Scilly Isles (over 80 kts) which are somewhat upstream in terms of timing compared to most of southeast Ireland, and a ship report off the northwest tip of France showing 58 knot sustained winds with a reporting history consistent with surroundings (in earlier hours, this ship has been heading southwest then south most of the day, earlier reports were in line with nearby weather stations).

Satellite imagery confirming that the strongest winds are to the east of the intermediate core of the cyclone running at this time from about mid-Kerry southeast to 48N 8W and then 100 miles to the east of that boundary. As there are some thunderstorms embedded, en route towards the southeast, I am estimating peak gusts may be as follows:

Cork -- 60-65 knots around 1900h

Waterford -- 65-70 knots around 2100h

Wexford -- 70-75 knots around 2300h

One peak of southeasterly gusts will probably sweep ahead of this zone into the Dublin region during the evening with a secondary peak around 0400h. Peak gusts near 60 kts anticipated there.

Combining this wind field with the astronomical high tide tables and looking at reports of water levels over one metre elevated from low tide at Wexford, could anticipate a 2-metre or higher storm surge this evening. Will defer to your better local knowledge but seems to me this will be somewhat higher than Monday's reported levels at that particular high tide.

LEVEL 3 status applies to all exposed areas in Cork, Waterford, Wexford and isolated higher ground facing south or southeast in other counties further inland. There could be isolated level 3 outcomes on the east coast but in general we will stick with a LEVEL 2 alert for counties from Kerry, Limerick east and northeast to Dublin and Meath, LEVEL 1 further north still. As noted by some posters, Connacht will experience rather strong easterly winds which may create different patterns of gusts from most storms.

Updates may follow.

Sierra Oscar

Authorities are expecting flooding to start hitting Cork from 7PM onwards according to RTÉ. They are expecting heavy flooding on par with 2009, perhaps worse. Streets will be closed off from 6PM onwards.

vicwatson

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Anyone know who ran the wexfordweather.com website? Seems to be gone now which is a shame as it was the only station I could find from Wexford town.

This might do in the meantime?

http://www.meteoblue.com/en/ireland/weather-wexford

maquiladora

Sherkin has dropped back to 107 km/h at 5pm, so looks like winds have peaked there now. On track with model predictions so far.

MichealD

Winds continue to rise in Wexford. http://www.wexfordharbour.info/

SpaceTime

Wind is really picking up.
We had a brief power outage. First time in about 8 years.

One of the problems with this is the wind direction is unusual so things that normally don't blow onto ESB overhead wiring may end up hitting it.

ninebeanrows

Sherkin down to 58kt, Roches Pt increases to 58kt, Cork Airport increases to 55kt.

Interesting to see the Kinsale Energy platform hit 58 gust 71kt

That's up 20kt in last two hours, showing still a swathe of severe winds off the south coast.

leahyl

Abs shocking in Cork City

SpaceTime

I would doubt it'll be as bad as 2009 unless they open the dam again.

It will be possibly very severe tidal flooding though.

TheMilkyPirate

vicwatson wrote: »

This might do in the meantime?

http://www.meteoblue.com/en/ireland/weather-wexford

Thanks Vic that's a help

Getting fairly wild down here now at the moment, Might take a trip down to the quays later.

sunbabe08

leahyl wrote: »

Abs shocking in Cork City

terrified of electricity turning off. i still have an assignment for tomorrow to finish

SpaceTime

Charge your laptop and mobile!

If you're stuck tomorrow there's power at every seat in Starbucks over in Mahon Point and also in the food court.

The UCC library should be safe enough too.

Larbre34

Rate of increase in the winds in Dun Laoghaire has been remarkable, fresh breeze between 2 and 3pm, now gusting E/SE Force 10, the wave fetch right into Dublin Bay is growing, if the wind speed and direction keeps up Id be fairly concerned about the overnight high tide around 3.20am

ninebeanrows

Just to give an illustration, that 58kt (107 km/hr) mean wind @ Kinsale Energy is Violent Storm Force 11.

weisses

Nothing to severe over here, and I am glad this one missed us

For the folks affected .....Stay safe !!

aurora 527

Micks weather station here in Waterford just recorded..95.6 km/h

http://www.waterfordcityweather.com/index.php

mickger844posts

aurora 527 wrote: »

Micks weather station here in Waterford just recorded..95.6 km/h

http://www.waterfordcityweather.com/index.php

Yep station record beating the 92.9 on Stephens Day.

maquiladora

mickger844posts wrote: »

Yep station record beating the 92.9 on Stephens Day.

Some big gusts during the heavier downpours alright. Seriously wet out there.

aurora 527

mickger844posts wrote: »

Yep station record beating the 92.9 on Stephens Day.

Sorry Mick just got in ahead of you...excellent site, i'd be lost without it

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

Lardy

Crazy here in Waterford at the moment... Have to go out to work in my van from 8pm - 4am tonight!

ninebeanrows

Not that it matters much now as a now-cast situation but latest NMM has winds a little stronger than previously.

Showing gusts >100km/hr getting well inland.

SpaceTime

Glad I'm not sitting out on the Kinsale Energy platform! Sounds pretty nasty.

Super-Rush

On a par with yesterday morning here in Carlow.

The wind gusts are very prolonged.

mike65

Can no longer tell if its windy, really windy or really very windy, its all the one continual howling gust.

peasant

Wind could get very interesting even up here in Sligo.
Of course we've seen 90 km/h gusts before ...but this time they're coming from the completely "wrong" side.
Things that have remained stationary so far might just grow wings tonight.

maquiladora

Things must be made of sterner stuff east of Fermoy...either that or the ESB haven't updated the page, but so far no eastward expansion of power outages in the past 1.5 hours or so.

https://www.esb.ie/esb-networks/powercheck/

patneve2

Wind picking up still, Dun Laoghaire getting first few +100 km/hr gusts now. 120 km/hr gusts a certainty later on, maybe more.

Spindle

The sustained wind speed is not that bad, but the gusts are unreal. Was out driving there on the way home from work, stopped at traffic lights and a freak gust lifted the car a small bit. The last time that happened to me was in a storm in 91 up in Donegal!

If you don't need to go out DON'T GO OUT

Surface water is mental and the drains can't take the rain that is falling. Hope the models are correct and this is the worst period as could not take much more at this rate.

Larbre34

patneve2 wrote: »

Wind picking up still, Dun Laoghaire getting first few +100 km/hr gusts now. 120 km/hr gusts a certainty later on, maybe more.

Howdy neighbour, yeah SSE for the moment, but if it switches ESE or E it will be serious for the bay area.

How annoying that a Force 11 Easterly in Feb isnt bringing snow!