The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Where is that from Maq?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~All

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~All

Met Eireann have an orange warning for sea areas in their update. if its only orange out at sea it will be a while before a red warning over land..

maquiladora

The cloud head seems to be a bit further northeast than the ECM simulated image for 3pm. It might be a timing difference rather than a track difference though.

Looking very windy for Munster and south Leinster on this.

Xenji

Around what time would we be expecting the storm to make landfall tomorrow?

Hooter23

The weather on TV there she said storm for the west and south (Munster & South Connaught) so Galway might get some of the strong winds too or nothing as we are very close to the center of the storm.........

Hooter23

Hooter23 wrote: »

The weather on TV there she said storm for the west and south (Munster & South Connaught) so Galway might get some of the strong winds too or nothing as we are very close to the center of the storm.........

Theres a weather guy talking about 2014s weather on rte now
Oh its Ken Ring......lol he said august would be the warmest Duh!

He also said there would be snow in 3rd week of febuary they should have asked him why he didnt warn us non stop storms this winter......

allthedoyles

Xenji wrote: »

Around what time would we be expecting the storm to make landfall tomorrow?

According to yr.no , it will hit South-west Wexford between 1pm- 4pm Wednesday afternoon..........Gale force winds anyway

ninebeanrows

Ship already reporting sustained 50 knots wind to southeast of low centre.

patneve2

Funny how there was lying snow in parts of Ireland before the 1839 "night of the big wind"...

munsterlegend

patneve2 wrote: »

Funny how there was lying snow in parts of Ireland before the 1839 "night of the big wind"...

this will be more 'morning/afternoon of the big wind' though (unless of course downgrades)

Mr Cumulonimbus

Compared to last night's 18Z run the 12Z WRF seems to be pushing the strongest winds south but still grazing the south coast.

D.Campbell

munsterlegend wrote: »

this will be more 'morning/afternoon of the big wind' though (unless of course downgrades)

sorry I'm at bit confussed is this tmw morning/afternoon or Thursdays thanks your posts are so interesting and informative

ninebeanrows

Just to add to Mr_C's post in case it confuses people with no wind over much of the land.

Even the GFS which is a little south of the Hirlam / UKM / ECMWF solution brings a swathe of very strong winds over the country later in the day!

---

That's 120 km/hr gusts moving into Dublin region tomorrow evening.

ninebeanrows

D.Campbell wrote: »

sorry I'm at bit confussed is this tmw morning/afternoon or Thursdays thanks your posts are so interesting and informative

This is tomorrow, i agree the thread title should be changed to illustrate this, it is confusing considering the storm will have exited before Thursday!

munsterlegend

D.Campbell wrote: »

sorry I'm at bit confussed is this tmw morning/afternoon or Thursdays thanks your posts are so interesting and informative

I think you are are confusing me for Maq! the experts here believe its tomorrow morning before it will hit and continue tomorrow afternoon/evening depending where you live. of course you should stay tuned for updates as its track is not certain.

patneve2

My ideas for tomorrow:
The south coast could easily get 140/150 kmh gusts tomorrow (could be worse if track changes)
Dublin I'm going more for 110/120 kmh gusts but could be slightly worse if track changes

maquiladora

There are some similarities....

D.Campbell

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think you are are confusing me for Maq! the experts here believe its tomorrow morning before it will hit and continue tomorrow afternoon/evening depending where you live. of course you should stay tuned for updates as its track is not certain.

yes you are right Im in the South in Cork

Mr Cumulonimbus

12Z Euro4 at +24 and +27 hours. Noticeably strong winds in the first chart for the SW.

philstar

there's been so many storms forecast over the past few weeks, do you think that there's a danger of the met office calling wolf

munsterlegend

philstar wrote: »

there's been so many storms forecast over the past few weeks, do you think that there's a danger of the met office calling wolf

Met Eireann have been very accurate in their forecasts but sometimes people read newspaper headlines who predict doomsday scenarios to sell papers and think its the Met who are supplying this info.

Sephiroth_dude

philstar wrote: »

there's been so many storms forecast over the past few weeks, do you think that there's a danger of the met office calling wolf

That would be great,since the week of the 18th dec ,there's been nothing but bloody storms.

downwiththatsor

The Eagle played it cool on Radio 1 now, orange alert no storminess stressed.

ninebeanrows

Cant believe that forecast on Radio 1!

- Seriously inadequate for what is inbound for Ireland tomorrow.

munsterlegend

downwiththatsor wrote: »

The Eagle played it cool on Radio 1 now, orange alert no storminess stressed.

in the short range what do met eireann rely on? is it hirlam or a combination?

ninebeanrows

ECMWF says a big Yes to a significant storm

-- What's the Eagle playing at?

leahyl

The winds have moved further south in some models though haven't they?

maquiladora

Any mention of Force 11 has now been removed from the latest sea area forecast. It was in the previous two forecasts.

Not sure why...perhaps the latest HARMONIE is showing a weaker low/more southerly track?

D.Campbell

Weathercheck wrote: »

Cant believe that forecast on Radio 1!

- Seriously inadequate for what is inbound for Ireland tomorrow.

TV3 said 130klm at most

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Any mention of Force 11 has now been removed from the latest sea area forecast. It was in the previous two forecasts.

Not sure why...perhaps the latest HARMONIE is showing a weaker low/more southerly track?

I'm a little taken a back by it. They could have a serious back lash tomorrow.

The ECMWF is extreme, the EURO4 has sustained 70mph winds touching Valentia!