The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

KingdomRushed

Six One news will be worth a watch. That ECM looks severe. Can it really be wrong at 24 hours?

downwiththatsor

Weathercheck wrote: »

I'm a little taken a back by it. They could have a serious back lash tomorrow.

The ECMWF is extreme, the EURO4 has sustained 70mph winds touching Valentia!

We might need a weather Ombudsman after this :pac:

Mr Cumulonimbus

Weathercheck wrote: »

Cant believe that forecast on Radio 1!

Its a very tough one for the forcasters to call though. Going by the 12Z Euro4 output at +24 hours, you would have very rough conditions in parts of Kerry & Cork but it might be near enough calm in Tipperary!

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

I'm a little taken a back by it. They could have a serious back lash tomorrow.

The ECMWF is extreme, the EURO4 has sustained 70mph winds touching Valentia!

I think the big forecast will be after the 9pm news later. if no upgrade by then then they obviously believe its not a serious storm.

tiegan

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Its a very tough one for the forcasters to call though. Going by the 12Z Euro4 output at +24 hours, you would have very rough conditions in parts of Kerry & Cork but it might be near enough calm in Tipperary!

Oh yes, please let it be calm in Tipp!!

Mr Cumulonimbus

850 mb winds. If they decided to come down..........

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

guil

Who is the eagle?

Fred Swanson

This post has been deleted.

ninebeanrows

All i'll say is that you will rarely see a chart more severe than this @ 24hrs

downwiththatsor

guil wrote: »

Who is the eagle?

John Eagleton Met Eireann

Red Nissan

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Leans forward to read more closely, stroking a short grey beard. My own summation too, TBH.

KingdomRushed

Friday bad too?

Weathering

Just watched the BBC1 Weather fc. They seemed a bit wishy washy about gust strengths and track. They're obviously not confident about the finer details.

JanuarySnowstor

Would agree with WC on this one.
Bear in mind though that rte are literally 6hours behind so their evening forecasts are likely based on the morning runs (sad I know but true!!)
A red alert will be issued this evening for the South Coast, when is the question

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Any mention of Force 11 has now been removed from the latest sea area forecast. It was in the previous two forecasts.

UK Met shipping forecast issued at 1625 indicating force 10 to 12 in Shannon, and perhaps up to Force 11 for Fastnet, Lundy and Irish Sea.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast/#?tab=map

M.T. Cranium

Looks severe enough to me too, I have been checking pressure falls and rises at various locations from the different models that provide 1-3h output. As you know, wind gusts often correlate with pressure differences and this storm has not only the signature of 15 mb pressure falls in 3h but a fairly sharp rise of about 12 mb in the mid-afternoon wrap around from Galway to Dublin. Given that this will be aligned to the topographic forcing at the time of maximum daytime instability, I see the potential for very strong gusts in this phase of the storm.

It was convenient having ship reports hourly from the most active part of the developing storm and we should keep a close eye on this ship as it is making rapid progress east (along 47N) and will be reflecting the southwest quadrant conditions for several hours this evening. The wind has shifted quite rapidly from south to WSW at its location. I have to assume they have applied the correction for ship motion because if not the winds are 20-30 knots stronger than the 52 knots being reported but that looks about right for the pressure field now.

Anyway, in other words, while I think the met forecast of a two-part windstorm is likely to verify in counties such as Clare, Galway, Limerick, (north) Tipp, inland southeast and most of Leinster, I would add perhaps 20 km/hr to their wind scenarios as the second part of the storm there could be quite fierce with gusts to 130 km/hr even in Dublin. The south coast will probably have a more continuous windstorm event with the first peak from southerly gales around 0800h and then the afternoon peak from westerlies. Possible peak gusts to 140 km/hr which might also apply to Galway during the afternoon only. Would not rule out 10-20 km/hr above these numbers, if the storm totally "bombs out" since there are these extreme winds indicated in the boundary layer.

Later guidance may change this outlook but for now I would say this could be a level 3 storm for a large percentage of the population this time. The Dublin region would not get into this until 3-6 p.m. according to the current guidance but further west it would be more like noon to 4 p.m. in Galway and pretty much all day on the south coast.

ninebeanrows

I'd certainly go Red for Munster and Orange for Leinster.

maquiladora

12Z ECM does look severe for the Kerry/West Cork coast. It looks stronger than the 0Z, and the 0Z had 80-90 knot gusts with 90-95 just off shore.

If that were to verify then record breaking gusts could be recorded for that part of the coast.

I'm less certain about winds inland from the coast, though the potential is there for something similar in 1997 in places.

KingdomRushed

I think met.ie heard that ye are copying their warnings here now, and are simply playing with ye.

*looks up at orange warning still on thread

dave1982

I assume I should tie down the wheelie bins in the morning I'm in Cobh?

leahyl

Here comes the forecast!

Daffodil.d

leahyl wrote: »

Here comes the forecast!

Does violent storm force still fall under the orange category?

maquiladora

Been a while since we had storm force winds over Munster and south Leinster. I'm sure that hasn't happened since '97.

JanuarySnowstor

Evelyn isn't making much of it either
As I say though have they reflected on the 12Z ECM yet ?

JanuarySnowstor

maquiladora wrote: »

Been a while since we had storm force winds over Munster and south Leinster. I'm sure that hasn't happened since '97.

Volient 11 is very rare but storm force ten is quite common down here and have seen it this Winter already

Oneiric 3

Evelyn C seemed sort of unsure herself on RTE weather just there. Like she knew something but was not allowed to say. Certainly not her usual casual and relaxed style.

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Volient 11 is very rare but storm force ten is quite common down here and have seen it this Winter already

I don't mean on the coast, I mean storm force winds over Munster and south Leinster.

_Whimsical_

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Evelyn C seemed sort of unsure herself on RTE weather just there. Like she knew something but was not allowed to say. Certainly not her usual casual and relaxed style.

I thought she awfully casual considering. Really as this will be hitting during daytime hours when there are kids going to school and coming home etc I think they might do well to err on the side of caution.

She mentioned the orange warning in relation to South and west but gave no indication that high winds were expected in the west at all.

sunbabe08

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Evelyn C seemed sort of unsure herself on RTE weather just there. Like she knew something but was not allowed to say. Certainly not her usual casual and relaxed style.

think she really wanted to run around the place screaming there's a hurricane coming. PANIC PANIC



:P