The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

Villain

aboyro wrote: »

I get the feeling that eveyln dos'nt want to have her micheal fish moment. Are we at risk of leaving this to the last minute for a real warning. i'm worried about the wind during normal daytime activity hours?

A real warning???

They have an Orange Alert in place and have just forecast winds of up to 140km/h I'm not sure what isn't real about that. People need to heed these warnings, some here will argue for a red warning and perhaps Met Eireann will issue one but they have warnings in place and forecast severe weather.

maquiladora

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Zone of strongest gusts slightly more south on the latest GFS?

Yes, slightly further off the south coast again. That's three runs in a row now that have reduced the strongest winds for the southwest. On the other hand the previous two HIRLAM runs have increased the potential winds.

Who'd be a forecaster eh?

Oscar Bravo

Agreed these warnings are issued for people to take heed of them. Orange warning is spot on at the moment. and in all fairness over the past 7 storms they have got it right with their warnings.

collie0708

Due to fly from dublin to London at 11am tommorow will flights be able to take off with the winds expected? Anyone have any ideas???

goat2

when should we expect it to start on the kerry coast, and when will it be at its worst

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, slightly further off the south coast again. That's three runs in a row now that have reduced the strongest winds for the southwest. On the other hand the previous two HIRLAM runs have increased the potential winds.

Who'd be a forecaster eh?

At this stage are the high res not more accurate such as Hirlam?

Oscar Bravo

as we get closer to the time for people asking whether flights will go or not etc use the new feature on the met.ie site http://www.met.ie/forecasts/short-range.asp

sunbabe08

what time is this going hit us here in Cork?

maquiladora

Estofex issued a level 1 for the south and east for convective winds gusts.

keith16

collie0708 wrote: »

Due to fly from dublin to London at 11am tommorow will flights be able to take off with the winds expected? Anyone have any ideas???

Who are you flying with?

Check your flight status with Aer Lingus here.

Ryanair have a similar page.

Red Pepper

Hooter23 wrote: »

I think it was still only an orange alert for tomorrow they are goin to be in big trouble tomorrow when its too late ......

How? What do people plan during an Orange+140kph warning that they absolutely draw the line for a Red warning?
If you want to see red, find a set of traffic lights.

ninebeanrows

munsterlegend wrote: »

At this stage are the high res not more accurate such as Hirlam?

Yes the GFS probably not the best to follow with its resolution etc.

For example the low is far too smooth to how it will look in reality and this is why the swathe of winds is shown further from the centre, in reality the isobars will be packed closer to the centre of the low to the south and the isobars won't be that smooth and circular.



Compare it to the ECMWF, which has a higher resolution and can give a better representation/more realistic of the organisation of the centre of the low.

howlinwolf

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, slightly further off the south coast again. That's three runs in a row now that have reduced the strongest winds for the southwest. On the other hand the previous two HIRLAM runs have increased the potential winds.

Who'd be a forecaster eh?

i feel that these model runs are whats holding met e back with a red warning, not all models in agreement so still extremely hard to say where and at what speed the strongest winds will hit, i feel if all the models were nailed on met e would have a red warning out but who knows, if it does track further south maybe the most we will see from this will be force10/11 along the very far south coast and a lot less inland and then all the people will be met e bashing sayin " why was there a red warning i got no storm " ........still seems up in the air even at this late stage, ah well more model watching to come

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

At this stage are the high res not more accurate such as Hirlam?

Most of the time yes, but not always. The GFS picked up on the weaker solution for 'St Judes' storm in the UK while the HIRLAM was one of the last models to switch from a more severe solution. Not saying that will happen here, but you have to look at all the output - and also compare and contrast it to whats actually happening as the low develops.

My money would be on the HIRLAM/ECM, but not ignoring the other models either.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Most of the time yes, but not always. The GFS picked up on the weaker solution for 'St Judes' storm in the UK while the HIRLAM was one of the last models to switch from a more severe solution. Not saying that will happen here, but you have to look at all the output - and also compare and contrast it to whats actually happening as the low develops.

My money would be on the HIRLAM/ECM, but not ignoring the other models either.

Thanks Maq as always. I think Evelyn's forecast was as close to a red warning in met terms without issuing it. 140km gusts is red warning strength or so I thought.

murdig

munsterlegend wrote: »

Thanks Maq as always. I think Evelyn's forecast was as close to a red warning in met terms without issuing it. 140km gusts is red warning strength or so I thought.

Weather Element Criteria for Red - Severe Weather Warnings

Wind: Mean Speeds in excess of 80 km/h
Gusts Speeds in excess of 130 km/h

fonecrusher1

Have confirmed there have been a number of flights from Cork cancelled. Is there a chance flights from Dublin Airport could also be cancelled due to this storm?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Thanks Maq as always. I think Evelyn's forecast was as close to a red warning in met terms without issuing it. 140km gusts is red warning strength or so I thought.

I think there might be a bit too much focus on the colour of the warnings rather than the actual forecast that was presented on TV : violent storm force winds in the southwest to storm force winds in the east. What did we do before these warnings had colours? :P

pad199207

maquiladora wrote: »

I think there might be a bit too much focus on the colour of the warnings rather than the actual forecast that was presented on TV : violent storm force winds in the southwest to storm force winds in the east. What did we do before these warnings had colours? :P

We hoped for the best

Oscar Bravo

A 2207 update from Met eireann as follows

Cold, blustery and frosty, with icy roads and scattered sleet and snow showers. Lowest temperatures of -1 to plus 2 C. Very wet and windy weather will push up from the south later on, preceded by some sleet and snow in northern areas.


Tomorrow

Extremely windy or stormy weather for Wednesday, with some severe winds developing and giving some damaging gust. Winds highest of all over Munster and parts of Leinster. Very heavy rain early on, with some spot flooding, but turning more showery later. Top temperatures of 5 to 8 C.

Outlook

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cold and windy with occasional wintry showers. Lowest temperatures of -1 to plus 2 deg Celsius with a sharp frost and some icy patches.
THURSDAY will be a cold, breezy day, with a mixture of bright or sunny spells and scattered showers, bringing some of hail or sleet to parts of Ulster and Connacht in particular. Highs of just 3 to 6 deg Celsius a fresh westerly wind. Very cold on Thursday night, with a sharp to severe frost and icy roads. Some dry clear spells, but a few wintry showers too.
FRIDAY looks set to be dry, cold and fairly sunny for a time. Present indications suggest that windy weather will develop over Munster and Leinster late in the day and on Friday night, bringing falls of rain and sleet to many places there. It should continue cold and mainly dry elsewhere with just the odd wintry shower, but with frost and with ice on the roads.
SATURDAY the weather will stay on the cool or cold side, with a mixture of sunshine and wintry showers, and with frost and icy patches at night and in the early morning. Most places dry, with the showers well scattered. Fresh west to northwest winds through Saturday, falling moderate later.
SUNDAY is likely to be dry and cold with light winds and good sunshine, but with extensive frost developing soon after dark as winds will be light.
The weather will continue unsettled and rather cold early next week.

Tactical

For all the people posting "what time will it get windy here".....

In the morning in the Southwest and throught the following hours across the country is the answer.

Those asking will be best placed to post when winds do pick up and reports will track progress across the country.

Unfortunately forecasting will give an idea of landfall but its only reports from meteorological instruments, buoy reports, shipping reports and people reports that will tell the situation as it atually unfolds.

An interesting day ahead I think.

keith16

fonecrusher1 wrote: »

Have confirmed there have been a number of flights from Cork cancelled. Is there a chance flights from Dublin Airport could also be cancelled due to this storm?

There certainly is a chance. A number were cancelled with the previous event a couple of weeks ago - with tomorrows event looking much more serious.

ElizaT33

Was just outside my house - the speed of the clouds up above is serious! Very strange weather - very angry weather ....! (Feel so sorry for the birds .. am feeding them probably FAR too much)!

bnt

At this time the UKMO models have some pretty severe winds over the Irish sea off Dublin, early Wednesday evening. The model is on 6h intervals, though.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

I think there might be a bit too much focus on the colour of the warnings rather than the actual forecast that was presented on TV : violent storm force winds in the southwest to storm force winds in the east. What did we do before these warnings had colours? :P

Too much focus on colour warnings alright. A full review Thursday morning is awaited. The boards weather cobra meeting.

Smidge

maquiladora wrote: »

I think there might be a bit too much focus on the colour of the warnings rather than the actual forecast that was presented on TV : violent storm force winds in the southwest to storm force winds in the east. What did we do before these warnings had colours? :P

Looked out the window to see was the roof still on the shed.
If it was, Yellow warning.

If the roof of the shed was in the next doors garden, Orange warning.

If the shed was gone?
That's a Red warning right there :P

Hooter23

"The storms go all the way back to the pacific with the tropical waters driving the stronger jet stream" according to Sky News.... Well I suppose ..we all know that global weather is all linked like the butterfy effect i suppose...

Red Pepper

Smidge wrote: »

Looked out the window to see was the roof still on the shed.
If it was, Yellow warning.

If the roof of the shed was in the next doors garden, Orange warning.

If the shed was gone?
That's a Red warning right there :P

Obviously someone forgot to tell the shed.

Tactical

munsterlegend wrote: »

Too much focus on colour warnings alright. A full review Thursday morning is awaited. The boards weather cobra meeting.

After that meeting we should hold a Sobra meeting.....

Snow Office Briefing Room A......... = SOBRA

maquiladora

18Z HIRLAM has a wedge of Force 12 winds heading straight into Valentia at noon with barely a breeze at Belmullet at the same time.