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The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014
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Weathercheck wrote: »Look how far this swathe of sustained severe gales get inland. Not seen that before on this model.
Yeah, quite like the HIRLAM now. Confidence is fairly high with both hi-res models showing something similar.
Satellite watching from here on.0 -
Comparison to Feb 26-27 1903 storm that brought destructive storm force winds inland across south and east continues to concern me.
Assume the central pressure on this was lower (960 mbs) as one historical account mentions a lower pressure in Scotland than the next day's map would support. Even so, it then looks very similar to the 09z model output for the approaching storm.
True that we have no working marine obs (ships are clearing out of the path too not surprisingly) but the pressure falls will tell us quite a lot as well as the satellite imagery. I am fully expecting this to overperform slightly from research data, and would urge anyone south of the track to remain very alert as level 3 conditions could spread inland and develop on the east coast briefly as the storm exits.
Anyway, that 1903 storm (known as the "Ulysses" storm due to a reference in Joyce's novel) produced significant tree losses from Birr to Dublin. I assume looking at the isobars and reports of the timing of damage (04-06h) that it had this tight gradient on the southwest flank. This storm was also powerful enough to blow a passenger train off the tracks in Lancashire.
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M.T. Cranium wrote: »Comparison to Feb 26-27 1903 storm that brought destructive storm force winds inland across south and east continues to concern me.
Assume the central pressure on this was lower (960 mbs) as one historical account mentions a lower pressure in Scotland than the next day's map would support. Even so, it then looks very similar to the 09z model output for the approaching storm.
True that we have no working marine obs (ships are clearing out of the path too not surprisingly) but the pressure falls will tell us quite a lot as well as the satellite imagery. I am fully expecting this to overperform slightly from research data, and would urge anyone south of the track to remain very alert as level 3 conditions could spread inland and develop on the east coast briefly as the storm exits.
Anyway, that 1903 storm (known as the "Ulysses" storm due to a reference in Joyce's novel) produced significant tree losses from Birr to Dublin. I assume looking at the isobars and reports of the timing of damage (04-06h) that it had this tight gradient on the southwest flank. This storm was also powerful enough to blow a passenger train off the tracks in Lancashire.
Met office uk are forecasting this to be centered over Scotland by 6pm with a 956 low on latest marine forecast 23.25
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-shipping-forecast/#?tab=map0 -
Weathercheck wrote: »Look how far this swathe of sustained severe gales get inland. Not seen that before on this model.
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M.T. Cranium wrote: »Comparison to Feb 26-27 1903 storm that brought destructive storm force winds inland across south and east continues to concern me.
Assume the central pressure on this was lower (960 mbs) as one historical account mentions a lower pressure in Scotland than the next day's map would support. Even so, it then looks very similar to the 09z model output for the approaching storm.
True that we have no working marine obs (ships are clearing out of the path too not surprisingly) but the pressure falls will tell us quite a lot as well as the satellite imagery. I am fully expecting this to overperform slightly from research data, and would urge anyone south of the track to remain very alert as level 3 conditions could spread inland and develop on the east coast briefly as the storm exits.
Anyway, that 1903 storm (known as the "Ulysses" storm due to a reference in Joyce's novel) produced significant tree losses from Birr to Dublin. I assume looking at the isobars and reports of the timing of damage (04-06h) that it had this tight gradient on the southwest flank. This storm was also powerful enough to blow a passenger train off the tracks in Lancashire.
"O yes, J.J. O'Molloy said eagerly. Lady Dudley was walking home through the park to see all the trees that were blown down by that cyclone last year and thought she'd buy a view of Dublin."0 -
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also back then they built their homes on sheltered side of hills, we built them on top of them, thank god that most of it will be in daylight hours,M.T. Cranium wrote: »Comparison to Feb 26-27 1903 storm that brought destructive storm force winds inland across south and east continues to concern me.
Assume the central pressure on this was lower (960 mbs) as one historical account mentions a lower pressure in Scotland than the next day's map would support. Even so, it then looks very similar to the 09z model output for the approaching storm.
True that we have no working marine obs (ships are clearing out of the path too not surprisingly) but the pressure falls will tell us quite a lot as well as the satellite imagery. I am fully expecting this to overperform slightly from research data, and would urge anyone south of the track to remain very alert as level 3 conditions could spread inland and develop on the east coast briefly as the storm exits.
Anyway, that 1903 storm (known as the "Ulysses" storm due to a reference in Joyce's novel) produced significant tree losses from Birr to Dublin. I assume looking at the isobars and reports of the timing of damage (04-06h) that it had this tight gradient on the southwest flank. This storm was also powerful enough to blow a passenger train off the tracks in Lancashire.0 -
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