The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

ninebeanrows · 12-02-2014 2:03am

Centre looks quite far north for what I expected at this time but I am no expert at extrapolating pressure fields from Satellite imagery.

image2.ashx?region=gb&ir=true

sunbabe08 · 12-02-2014 2:06am

i do agree about the fact that met eireann left it a bit late, i have classmates who didn't know anything about this, until i told them. have assignments due in tomorrow. i'm afraid to actually even think about going into college tomorrow

_Whimsical_ · 12-02-2014 2:12am

Someone from Met Uk on BBC radio saying they're expecting 60-80 mm of rain in parts tomorrow. A months worth over the day!

Also mentioned the storm on route to us expected to be "very vigorous ".

winterwonder · 12-02-2014 2:13am

Anyone worried about travelling to work tomorrow? Right on the south coast with a lot of back roads with trees to travel past? Is it worth the risk if the winds are going to be this strong or will it not affect traffic too much? Haven't driven in winds that are forecasted like this before so don't know what to expect, guess I'll just try and turn back if needs be?

Goldstein · 12-02-2014 2:13am

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

It looks like we could be facing a major weather event tomorrow and as it it is the south and east expected to be hit the worst, there is unfortunately increased chances of structural damage and fatalities. Please people keep safe and heed any warnings not to travel unecessarily. If these winds do materialise then I really do think Evelyn Cusack and others at Met Eireann need to consider their positions. Issuing a red alert after midnight during the midweek is not acceptable. I have just text a friend to warn him in Cork and he said that there had been talk of gales but no mention of winds of 160 kmph. Now I understand that the weather has been rather unpredictable of late but forecasters on here did highlight this storm as 3 to 4 days ago. Evelyn Cusack stated on a weather forecast that this week would see no storms. To dismiss any stormy activity in a period of turbulence and successive depressions hitting Ireland was reckless and premature. I agree she would not have had any sound data on Sunday but she should have highlighted the possibilities.

Weather forecast from 9:30PM Tuesday night:
http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/10251941/

"The next storm which is approaching Ireland", "Some very wet and windy weather tomorrow", (Over Munster) "winds up to violent storm force 11 with gusts of about 130 or 140kmph", "South of Galway and Dublin up to storm force 10", "really quite severe weather over the next 24 hours so do take care".

Does she have to dance around like a headless chicken before people will heed the warnings?

Turnipman · 12-02-2014 2:14am

Lads, the coming wind is scary enough for this Bantry resident - but I haven't read much about the possibility of lightning in the many forecasts. Currently there's loads of it to be seen, presumably in the clouds surrounding the depression.

see here:- http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

What are the prospects for this arriving in my neck of the woods, or will it burn itself out in the Atlantic? Thanks.

jobeenfitz · 12-02-2014 2:16am

winterwonder wrote: »

Anyone worried about travelling to work tomorrow? Right on the south coast with a lot of back roads with trees to travel past? Is it worth the risk if the winds are going to be this strong or will it not affect traffic too much? Haven't driven in winds that are forecasted like this before so don't know what to expect, guess I'll just try and turn back if needs be?

If there is any doubt, stay in bed. Life is short enough.

maquiladora · 12-02-2014 2:20am

If you live in rural areas in the southwest you should be prepared for long power outages if this turns out anything like 1997. After the 97 storm there were still people waiting to get power back 6 days after the storm.

winterwonder · 12-02-2014 2:21am

jobeenfitz wrote: »

If there is any doubt, stay in bed. Life is short enough.

That's true, will see in the morning, definitely agree with life is too short, not worth the risk if it can be avoided

BorneTobyWilde · 12-02-2014 2:24am

3 different warnings for south is lame. It's not the US, country is only a few miles wide.
RED RED RED

Spindle · 12-02-2014 2:25am

winterwonder wrote: »

Anyone worried about travelling to work tomorrow? Right on the south coast with a lot of back roads with trees to travel past? Is it worth the risk if the winds are going to be this strong or will it not affect traffic too much? Haven't driven in winds that are foretasted like this before so don't know what to expect, guess I'll just try and turn back if needs be?

If you can avoid it do at any cost. It is not only trees, but slates/tiles, shed roofs that could all potentially become airborne. The 97 event took down some 150 year old healthy oak trees, and even witnessed some galvanised sheeting flying through the air.

If you have to drive, take it handy, there could be a tree down around a bend, also watch for gaps in ditches, as crosswinds could take the car if you are not prepared for them. Throw a blanket in the car and some food, and be prepared for taking a different route, as more than likely trees will be blocking some routes. And be prepared for a longer journey home.

Cogsy88 · 12-02-2014 2:26am

I missed the snow earlier and now I'm only in the yellow zone. Think it's time to move house.

Danno · 12-02-2014 2:28am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A

Spindle · 12-02-2014 2:29am

maquiladora wrote: »

If you live in rural areas in the southwest you should be prepared for long power outages if this turns out anything like 1997. After the 97 storm there were still people waiting to get power back 6 days after the storm.

And roads blocked for the same length of time as there were so many trees downed.

I would be worried as well about how well the "boom" housing will fare. This is the first real test of this housing and some were not built the best, so expect a lot of missing slates and guttering if these winds verify.

The only saving grace is that some of the ESB network is now underground so hopefully the impact will not be as bad.

Danno · 12-02-2014 2:33am

maquiladora wrote: »

If you live in rural areas in the southwest you should be prepared for long power outages if this turns out anything like 1997. After the 97 storm there were still people waiting to get power back 6 days after the storm.

Which was a stronger storm than Hurricane Sandy... yet my aunt on Long Island was waiting 3 and half weeks for her power to come back... In 97, it took 20hrs to get power back here... tips hat at the ESB workers.

Xenji · 12-02-2014 2:33am

Looking at the BBC forecast again, it seems that we could see a lot of snow being dumped in western and north western counties, then again they usually get it wrong when they show the Republic. It is still white outside in Castlebar since nightfall.

BorneTobyWilde · 12-02-2014 2:33am

Very visible now
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-14.63,49.69,2054

Will go north somewhat if I had predict on this map. ( I know zero about it )

winterwonder · 12-02-2014 2:34am

Spindle wrote: »

If you can avoid it do at any cost. It is not only trees, but slates/tiles, shed roofs that could all potentially become airborne. The 97 event took down some 150 year old healthy oak trees, and even witnessed some galvanised sheeting flying through the air.

If you have to drive, take it handy, there could be a tree down around a bend, also watch for gaps in ditches, as crosswinds could take the car if you are not prepared for them. Throw a blanket in the car and some food, and be prepared for taking a different route, as more than likely trees will be blocking some routes. And be prepared for a longer journey home.

Thanks, that's what I'm afraid of, during the 97 storm our whole shed got blown away, remember running to the house with galvanised sheeting flying past, most terrifying experience ever so just think I'm extra wary about this storm, hope everyone stays safe

M.T. Cranium · 12-02-2014 2:35am

F-Stop wrote: »

Me too, apart from a few slates coming off the roof, the porch door blew open and one of the dogs got a leg off the turkey.

More details needed to assess boundary layer implications here.

miseagustusa · 12-02-2014 2:41am

There's an eerie calmness out now

Spindle · 12-02-2014 2:43am

miseagustusa wrote: »

There's an eerie calmness out now

But 195 users on the weather Forum at almost 2am, there is something out there Jim :rolleyes:

Duiske · 12-02-2014 2:47am

Along with the wind, it's looking a tad damp for the morning commute.

BorneTobyWilde · 12-02-2014 2:48am

Spindle wrote: »

But 195 users on the weather Forum at almost 2am, there is something out there Jim :rolleyes:

Yo man pass the spliff

sdanseo · 12-02-2014 2:49am

Just nipped out to the garage for a coke as I was still awake, from Malahide down towards Dublin for a couple of KM. 2.5c in the car, lying graupelly snow on one or two sheltered cars but otherwise a normal, albeit freezing cold, night. Not a breath of wind noticeable.

Calm before the storm indeed.

Weathering · 12-02-2014 2:50am

Met office fc a spell of heavy snow on the leading edge of tomorrows rainbelt and met eireann are in agreement in regards to the North. Wouldn't surprise me if some areas saw a lot more snow than is anticipated.

Real story in Southern areas as we all know. Stay safe

M.T. Cranium · 12-02-2014 3:05am

Looks powerful and slightly ahead of model schedule. Current location estimated from satellite 50.5N 17.5W (0130z).

Extensive lightning indicates explosive development underway. I don't think we'll have much time to react to 00z model output before storm arrives, so let's hope the GME is on form (first one out).

patneve2 · 12-02-2014 3:11am

Probably already posted but ESTOFEX talking about possible downdrafts tomorrow:

From Estofex:

DISCUSSION

... southern Ireland, Wales, England ...

Yet another deep low pressure system is expected to affect the area. In the dry intrusion, behind the main stratiform rain shield, intense pressure gradient is simulated with 40 m/s windspeeds at 850 hPa level just south of the low center. Both ECMWF and GFS hint on some marginal instability build up in this zone. Intense forcing could support a strongly forced convective line, where convection (downdrafts) would contribute to the strength of the wind gusts, which should be already very strong (coastal areas over 130 km/h) due to the background situation. Level 1 seems to be warranted for this questionable setup for severe wind gusts. Tornadoes are not ruled out either, given the intense low level shear, though they might depend strongly on the convective mode (isolated cell vs convective line). Greatest threat should exist between 12 - 15 UTC.