The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

downwiththatsor

Worried as to what damage violent storm force 11 could bring down here.

weisses

je551e wrote: »

Strong wind and heavy rain in Kerry now

True ... Heavy rain and strong gusts

aboyro

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Worried as to what damage violent storm force 11 could bring down here.

same here. i'm fed up of being "tested". i'd like to see "the bad man go-away" now. these intense wind episodes are wearing on me:(

CB19Kevo

weisses wrote: »

True ... Heavy rain and strong gusts

Nothing of note yet in South East Kerry.
The odd gust and drizzle.

snowstorm2013

Is it true this storm is going to miss us altogether? Heres hoping

microsim

Mind yerselfs!

Villain

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

Is it true this storm is going to miss us altogether? Heres hoping

Not certain yet, tune into RTE1 after the news and Met Eireann will have the latest data along with their own thoughts.

Oneiric 3

Villain wrote: »

I get why this thread is needed for this event but if this warning was for Dublin I think the thread would either include it or another thread with a Level 2 would be created.

To be honest, I think there is too much emphasis on the 'warning levels' on this forum. It is supposed to be an amateur weather enthusiast chat thread, not a national warning one. Pretty sure most people reading this thread and forum have an idea of what may come regarding the severity of any given weather situation that may - or may not - evolve.

ninebeanrows

Raw ECMWF data going for sustained 108 km/h - Violent storm @ Valentia midday Wednesday.

It shows sustained 91 km/h - Storm @ Dublin City Centre

Villain

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

To be honest, I think there is too much emphasis on the 'warning levels' on this forum. It is supposed to be an amateur weather enthusiast chat thread, not a national warning one. Pretty sure most people reading this thread and forum have an idea of what may come regarding the severity of any given weather situation that may - or may not - evolve.

I would agree with you only there has been a lot of comments here in the past where people have had a go at Met Eireann and said they trust forecasts here etc.

I think the Alert Levels here should either echo Met Eireann's or not be present at all, I mean Met Eireann have issued an Orange Warning which is a serious threat yet we only see a level 1 here for a system which is over 48 hours away.

northgirl

weisses wrote: »

True ... Heavy rain and strong gusts

Just starting to pick up in Cork city now too. All familiar sounds at this stage :rolleyes:

downwiththatsor

Latest Hirlam appears to be sticking to its guns on the storm track over the South West
http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,419

Oscar Bravo

All eyes on RTE1 in a few minutes.....

Oneiric 3

Villain wrote: »

I think the Alert Levels here should either echo Met Eireann's or not be present at all, I mean Met Eireann have issued an Orange Warning which is a serious threat yet we only see a level 1 here for a system which is over 48 hours away.

I would go with 'not present' full stop. As they seem to put an onus on the main forecasters on here, who would, in my opinion, rather just discuss potential and ever changing situations. Reading MT's post a few days ago seems to confirm this. Put up a level 3, they'll get accused of hyping it up too much; put up a 'level 1' then chances are there will be complaints of not hyping it up enough. The Big 3 or 4 on here should not have to deal with that at all.

leahyl

Evelyn a bit understated with forecast there - still uncertain I guess. But seems if it does hit us it will move away quick enough

Villain

Yep she played it safe but to be fair its very uncertain and she did mention the risk

Cork Lass

It's taken a fairly nasty turn here in Cork. Howling wind and heavy rain.

Harps

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Latest Hirlam appears to be sticking to its guns on the storm track over the South West
http://www.emhi.ee/index.php?ide=19,394,416,419

Sustained storm force from Cork and Kerry to Clare and maybe even Galway on that run, a massive difference to Cornwall or Southern Wales taking a direct hit as the UKMO are suggesting. Forecasters will really be earning their money over then next 24 hours!

ninebeanrows

GFS coming around again on the 18z towards the ECMWF track

ninebeanrows

Look at this gradient over southern Ireland...

Dangerous @45hrs

Villain

Latest Met Eireann Outlook sums it up pretty well:

Extremely windy or possibly storm conditions are likely on Wednesday, with heavy rain or sleet, and some local flooding.
Some structural damage is also possible. The exact track of the approaching low pressure is still not certain, so keep in tune with updates.

patneve2

wow, very nasty GFS for Wednesday

ninebeanrows

100 knots @ 850hPa over Ireland Wednesday with a sting-jet a very real threat............

Steopo

Wow, 18z GFS has moved us right into the firing line and if it keeps that track we're looking at a very dangerous storm for Ireland

Weathering

Snow on the Northern edge a possibility?

JanuarySnowstor

Its a bloody hurricane guys!!

dfbemt

On Joans forecast why are the arrows on the isobar underneath "Violent Storm Force Eleven" going in the opposite direction (East to West) ???

ninebeanrows

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Its a bloody hurricane guys!!

Not far off, latest runs has a patch of sustained Hurricane force winds off running onto the southwest coast!

pistolpetes11

Villain wrote: »

I would agree with you only there has been a lot of comments here in the past where people have had a go at Met Eireann and said they trust forecasts here etc.

I think the Alert Levels here should either echo Met Eireann's or not be present at all, I mean Met Eireann have issued an Orange Warning which is a serious threat yet we only see a level 1 here for a system which is over 48 hours away.

You have made your views on this quite apparent no need to keep repeating yourself

ninebeanrows

Timing may change but if we were to take the 18z GFS as gospel it would actually be very concerning for Dublin.

Striking right @ evening rush hour with sustained winds of 40-45kts with gusts probably hitting 70kts in the wrap around cloud head.

Would be dangerous on the roads with flying debris etc.

Very difficult call for Met Eireann tomorrow if things looks similar, what is the advise if you think there is a high risk of 70kt+ wind gusts hitting the capital city at rush-hour?

maquiladora

Highest mean wind speed recorded at Valentia is 107 km/h in September 1961. 18Z GFS has sustained winds of ~120 km/h touching there.

Will it actually verify? Who knows, but quite amazing to see at under 48 hours now.

leahyl

It's gone very nasty in Cork City now - very gusty with heavy rain; can only imagine what Wednesday will be like!

NegativeCreep

Being really selfish here but I hope this happens. Dublin hasn't had any real exciting weather at all Everywhere else is hogging it. cheek.

pad199207

This is really wow stuff to see at such short range. But I've seen it all go balls up in the last 24hrs before it happens. Certainly concerning though .

leahyl

Weathercheck wrote: »

Timing may change but if we were to take the 18z GFS as gospel it would actually be very concerning for Dublin.

Striking right @ evening rush hour with sustained winds of 40-45kts with gusts probably hitting 70kts in the wrap around cloud head.

Would be dangerous on the roads with flying debris etc.

Very difficult call for Met Eireann tomorrow if things looks similar, what is the advise if you think there is a high risk of 70kt+ wind gusts hitting the capital city at rush-hour?

And what about the rest of the country? I thought it was the South was looking most in danger?

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

And what about the rest of the country? I thought it was the South was looking most in danger?

ninebeanrows

leahyl wrote: »

And what about the rest of the country? I thought it was the South was looking most in danger?

I am just focusing on Dublin there, the south gets the worst of it before it heads north.

Xenji

From looking at various runs posted here I have seen the worst of the winds being in the south west and the east, but on some it seems that it will be the north west and the east, which outcome is most likely or do we need to wait on more models in the morning.

downwiththatsor

Another gfs based gust speed with numbers from here-
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

Shamrock841

2200z Metar from Cork airport has the wind 190(southerly) 22kts gusting 39kts

maquiladora

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Another gfs based gust speed with numbers from here-
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

The numbers are sustained winds, the colours are gusts.

JanuarySnowstor

Hard to know wc. History of watching weather models tells us they are not to be trusted n quite often over estimate events.
I would think we ( us and met eireann) should hold off on major warnings until after the 12s tomorrow afternoon and if they still show then get major warnings out tomorrow night and use the news media etc.

downwiththatsor

Thanks, maq, worse than i thought then.

Weathercheck any thoughts on the 12z Ecmwf control run at +48hrs?

relaxed

High tide Fenit pier for example is 3.20pm Wednesday, what time is peak storm force winds expected along the west coast?

Stella Virgo

NegativeCreep wrote: »

Being really selfish here but I hope this happens. Dublin hasn't had any real exciting weather at all Everywhere else is hogging it. cheek.

ya wont be so chirpy, when ya have to re roof the house....;)

maquiladora

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Thanks, maq, worse than i thought then.

Yes but remember it's just one run and it has shifted track from it's last run. Just because this run is showing the strongest winds impacting us doesn't mean that the next run can't drop further south again, or show a less intense low on a similar track. Same for the ECM etc.
This thing is still thousands of miles away on the other side of the Atlantic ocean and it only really gets going a few hours before reaching our shores so there can still be a lot of changes between now and Wednesday morning and it wouldn't take a very big change to make a very big difference. We have seen track changes and downgrades in intensity at under 24 hours several times.

Just something to keep in mind, while this looks more likely now, it's still far from certain.

Villain

I really hope this downgrades, I love extreme weather but this is just dangerous!

I'm supposed to be flying out if Knock Thursday morning to the UK.

What do you think my chances are ?

JanuarySnowstor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm supposed to be flying out if Knock Thursday morning to the UK.

What do you think my chances are ?

The storm is Wednesday

Steopo

relaxed wrote: »

High tide Fenit pier for example is 3.20pm Wednesday, what time is peak storm force winds expected along the west coast?

Based on current GFS track would probably be worst on South/Southwest around 1pm Wed & West/East around 4pm/5pm with still very strong winds at 7pm (less so in Southwest at that stage)

Although the high tide is that time bear in mind that we are not at astronomical high tides (i.e. the high spring tides we had for the last two coastal events where the gravitational pull of the moon & earth create higher tides) so this reduces the risk of coastal impacts. Also because this is rapidly developing and does not have as long a track as last few storms across the atlantic the storm surge won't be as significant

Nevertheless don't underestimate this, if it comes off it's a major wind storm across a much larger part of the country than any of the recent storms