The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

goat2

red_bairn wrote: »

Where are ye located, goat2?

west kerry

Mr Cumulonimbus

06Z Euro4.

maquiladora

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

06Z Euro4.

Yes, EURO4 has shifted north a bit, now showing sustained 70-75 mph winds along the southwest coast.



Moving quickly, 3 hours later the strongest winds just off the Wexford coast, again 70-75 mph. Looks less severe inland compared to other models but it's hard to tell with such a fast moving system at 3 hour intervals.



The Met Office have updated their warning.

There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the vigorous depression and hence the areas more likely to be affected by the worst of the winds. However, current ideas suggest that parts of western England, Wales and northern England will bear the brunt with gusts of 60-70 mph widely, perhaps with gusts of 80-90 mph in exposed parts of north and west Wales and northwest England.

ninebeanrows

EURO4 beginning to come around. Certainly has been playing catch up, should have better representation by 12z, but again this feature has hardly recognizable yet!

To think in 24 hours it could be brining some record high winds!

KingdomRushed

When does the next HIRLAM come out again?

maquiladora

KingdomRushed wrote: »

When does the next HIRLAM come out again?

3:30

Oscar Bravo

Orange wind alert issued by met eireann for counties Galway limerick cork Waterford wexford Clare and Kerry for tomorrow. Valid from 0900 tomorrow.

ninebeanrows

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Orange wind alert issued by met eireann for counties Galway limerick cork Waterford Clare and Kerry for tomorrow.

Yea i don't get that to be honest. Including Galway yet excluding a number of places that would get hit if the track brought Galway under threat!!

---

I hope that isn't the only warning they issue or else could be some surprised and annoyed people tomorrow night.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yea i don't get that to be honest. Including Galway yet excluding a number of places that would get hit if the track brought Galway under threat!!

---

I hope that isn't the only warning they issue or else could be some surprised and annoyed people tomorrow night.

Probably because they are the most likely counties to be impacted, too early to be refining the warning when there is still uncertainty about the track and intensity.

There will be more detailed warnings by this tonight when we should have better model agreement.

I think most people take more notice of the TV forecast than the specifics of the warnings on the website anyway...

Macy0161

maquiladora wrote: »

I think most people take more notice of the TV forecast than the specifics of the warnings on the website anyway...

Without getting into the pro's and con's of the warning, the radio station news and online sources (such as The Journal), do tend to run with any warnings issued.

maquiladora

Macy0161 wrote: »

Without getting into the pro's and con's of the warning, the radio station news and online sources (such as The Journal), do tend to run with any warnings issued.

Yes, thats true. I just think the average person gets a better impression of the weather from the TV forecasts after the news, and I'm sure there will be more detailed warnings explained on the TV forecast tonight.

Cantona's Collars

How much rain do we expect to get from this system? Slaney is still running high through Enniscorthy & was topped up by some more heavy rain last night.Noticed the sandbags being removed this morning......too soon??

billie1b

Rain falling as 'wet snow' in Blanchardstown

maquiladora

Latest FAX chart for 6am tomorrow places the low further south than the 06Z GFS.

12Z runs will be interesting.

Cantona's Collars

RTE forecast just over,going with the track that Maq's latest chart gives.

Was kinda hard to concentrate with Audrey wearing that tight dress:D

BorneTobyWilde

The12thMan wrote: »

How often do the models update?

Spring catalog out soon , some lovely floral dresses to be had

Kerrydude1981

zerks wrote: »

RTE forecast just over,going with the track that Maq's latest chart gives.

Was kinda hard to concentrate with Audrey wearing that tight dress:D

Very easy lose concentration when Audrey is on

ninebeanrows

Our storm just coming into view on the latest satellite imagery as a cloud leaf due west of Ireland

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Our storm just coming into view on the latest satellite imagery as a cloud leaf due west of Ireland

Yep. ECM overlay.

Red Pepper

Important question

Will this storm wash away all the snow on high ground (500m+) or will it be cold enough to add to it?

I gots to know...

howlinwolf

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest FAX chart for 6am tomorrow places the low further south than the 06Z GFS.

12Z runs will be interesting.

here's hopin it continues to drop south, this storm is just a little too much for my liking... some of the models and charts that were posted last night were just scary, we might be slightly more out of the firing line here in the inland south but still looking worrying for the south coast

Larbre34

Kerrydude1981 wrote: »

Very easy lose concentration when Audrey is on

*makes mental note to review the 1 news on the Player later!

Back on topic, I think we might just dodge a bullet tomorrow? UK Met are going for direct hit on the Bristol Channel with much lesser effects on the island of Ireland

Larbre34

Red Pepper wrote: »

Important question

Will this storm wash away all the snow on high ground (500m+) or will it be cold enough to add to it?

I gots to know...

It will wash away some of it, the temperature will increase with the storm and then decrease again tomorrow night with more wintry showers, the effect on gross accumulation of snow will depend on too many local variations to predict now but there will probably be snow on the usual peaks for most of the week

maquiladora

Larbre34 wrote: »

*makes mental note to review the 1 news on the Player later!

Back on topic, I think we might just dodge a bullet tomorrow? UK Met are going for direct hit on the Bristol Channel with much lesser effects on the island of Ireland

That was the previous track they went with until the morning. Shifted north now.

ninebeanrows

Larbre34 wrote: »

*makes mental note to review the 1 news on the Player later!

Back on topic, I think we might just dodge a bullet tomorrow? UK Met are going for direct hit on the Bristol Channel with much lesser effects on the island of Ireland

The UK MetO do not forecast for Republic of Ireland, their charts will not cover the expected winds for Ireland even if at times some of their risk areas run over our land.

Larbre34

I think I speak for everyone when I say eek.

howlinwolf

Weathercheck wrote: »

The UK MetO do not forecast for Republic of Ireland, their charts will not cover the expected winds for Ireland even if at times some of their risk areas run over our land.

are there any other signs of this system starting to track south or is it just one models view?

ninebeanrows

howlinwolf wrote: »

are there any other signs of this system starting to track south or is it just one models view?

The 6z GFS was further south than the 0z.

That is all i can see. The EURO4 is further south than the ECMWF, HIRLAM etc but its trend run by run is to move the centre further north.

Anyway the 12z are just one hour away so we will have a much better idea!;)

howlinwolf

Weathercheck wrote: »

The 6z GFS was further south than the 0z.

That is all i can see. The EURO4 is further south than the ECMWF, HIRLAM etc but its trend run by run is to move the centre further north.

Anyway the 12z are just one hour away so we will have a much better idea!;)

at what point do you think it becomes a now cast type situation where the models don't come into it anymore ....some time later tonight?

Villain

maquiladora wrote: »

That was the previous track they went with until the morning. Shifted north now.

They have updated them in last 2 hrs

Harps

howlinwolf wrote: »

at what point do you think it becomes a now cast type situation where the models don't come into it anymore ....some time later tonight?

These sort of storms are always a nowcast to an extent, usually they end up further north than was forecast. I haven't had the chance to catch up with the latest models yet but if there's still no definite agreement by now then it's going to be a wait and see situation, once the storm starts to take shape in the Atlantic we'll start to get a clearer picture

patneve2

I can see the storm track being pretty similar to the 06z, possibly a touch North of that. Anyways, 12z will be out soon so we'll have a better idea. As usual the initial Southerly gales will probably feel stronger than the SW gales that will follow (in my location at least).

Villain

Latest UK MET update for storm

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM is more severe.

Larger area of >30 m/s winds approaching the southwest, wider area of inland strong gales and >30 m/s appearing in Irish Sea again.

Track looks similar to the previous run but the low itself is more intense.

maquiladora

On the other hands, looks like 12Z GFS is going to be weaker and further south again?

leahyl

Which is the more reliable model?

aboyro

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z HIRLAM is more severe.

Larger area of >30 m/s winds approaching the southwest, wider area of inland strong gales and >30 m/s appearing in Irish Sea again.

Track looks similar to the previous run but the low itself is more intense.

not happy about this.

ninebeanrows

GFS more severe than 6z!

- Meanwhile chucking it with snow here.

Too much for my poor weather heart to take!

patneve2

GFS 12z a bit weaker.

BorneTobyWilde

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z HIRLAM is more severe.

Larger area of >30 m/s winds approaching the southwest, wider area of inland strong gales and >30 m/s appearing in Irish Sea again.

Track looks similar to the previous run but the low itself is more intense.

leahyl

4pm tomorrow :eek:

JanuarySnowstor

12z is stronger though a nudge further south gfs.
All looks certain is that the south coast will get severe winds for about 3 hours

sunbabe08

leahyl wrote: »

4pm tomorrow :eek:

ahhh come here, mother nature is having a laugh now :rolleyes:

maquiladora

12Z GFS has the strongest winds a bit further south off the southwest coast.



Not a huge difference from the 06Z really, but quite different from the 12Z HIRLAM which puts the strongest winds straight into the southwest and not under the south coast.

The exact track, timing and structure of the low will make all the difference.

leahyl

So we're still none the wiser really what the hell this beast will do :pac:

patneve2

As Jsnowstorm said the only certain thing at this stage is that the S coast will get a big battering.

red_bairn

leahyl wrote: »

So we're still none the wiser really what the hell this beast will do :pac:

It'll give ya a little tickle on the tummy in Cork.

ninebeanrows

Yes Hirlam looks vicious.

12z actually brings them high winds inland more so than the 6z run in the next few frames though.

ninebeanrows

leahyl wrote: »

So we're still none the wiser really what the hell this beast will do :pac:

No I think we have a good handle of what will happen. The swathe of high winds will move up the country from southwest to northeast through the day. Most violent gusts in the south.

GFS and Hirlam quite similar really, obviously few nuances with big differences but the general theme for this storm to hit the southern half of Ireland is shown by both models.

Very unlikely to miss!

maquiladora

12Z UKMO track looks very similar to the 0Z but the low itself is a little deeper.

Getting to a point where global models may not be the most useful resource though.