The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

leahyl

Weathercheck wrote: »

No I think we have a good handle of what will happen. The swathe of high winds will move up the country from southwest to northeast through the day. Most violent gusts in the south.

GFS and Hirlam quite similar really, obviously few nuances with big differences but the general theme for this storm to hit the southern half of Ireland is shown by both models.

Very unlikely to miss!

How long should any one area experience these winds for?

Bigcheeze

Due to fly out of DUB early tomorrow, back late at night. Fair to say I'll dodge this ?

ninebeanrows

UKM shows best blended track of low centre

Tracking rapidly northeast.

Larbre34

Probable Red Alert from ME in the early AM so?

patneve2

Ha, wouldn't want to be out there tomorrow: http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Munster/Skellig_Rocks/hour_by_hour.html

maquiladora

Larbre34 wrote: »

Probable Red Alert from ME in the early AM so?

The GFS shows mean winds on the exposed southwest coast 40 km/h above the criteria for a red warning.

Villain

I don't believe they will issue a red warning until about 24 hours out so may well come shortly.

aboyro

what worries me is that the peak wind times coincide with school finishing. i'd much rather not expose the kids to the effects of the storm forecast:eek:

Bandito909

Meant to take the other half over to kerry for valentine's for the weekend.

Any idea if kerry with will be a disaster zone? :pac:

ninebeanrows

I think Red Warning should be delivered on 9pm News/ Forecast if things still on track.

It is too late issuing it tomorrow morning as the storm will already be making landfall in the southwest.

leahyl

Eh, talk about being conservative:

From met.ie:

Wet and windy tomorrow with heavy rain spreading northwards through the morning and then turning to showers during the afternoon. Southerly winds will be very strong over Munster, Connacht and south Leinster during the morning, ease for a time around the middle of the day and then veer westerly and become strong again in the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees

There is an orange warning there though which says winds up to 130kmph - but they kind of play it down in the main forecast.

patneve2

met.ie are going to have to make a decision soon...they are probably waiting for the 12z ECM

ninebeanrows

leahyl wrote: »

Eh, talk about being conservative:

From met.ie:

Wet and windy tomorrow with heavy rain spreading northwards through the morning and then turning to showers during the afternoon. Southerly winds will be very strong over Munster, Connacht and south Leinster during the morning, ease for a time around the middle of the day and then veer westerly and become strong again in the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees

There is an orange warning there though which says winds up to 130kmph - but they kind of play it down in the main forecast.

I know i have hyped things in the past only for it to be much watered down. However that forecast is way too understated, most models are showing near hurricane force sustained winds along some Southern/Southwestern coasts.

Tactical

Bandito909 wrote: »

Meant to take the other half over to kerry for valentine's for the weekend.

Any idea if kerry with will be a disaster zone? :pac:

That"s true love. Taking the other half to bad weather

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Eh, talk about being conservative:

From met.ie:

Wet and windy tomorrow with heavy rain spreading northwards through the morning and then turning to showers during the afternoon. Southerly winds will be very strong over Munster, Connacht and south Leinster during the morning, ease for a time around the middle of the day and then veer westerly and become strong again in the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees

There is an orange warning there though which says winds up to 130kmph - but they kind of play it down in the main forecast.

I dunno, I mean "very strong" winds are very strong.

There is still some uncertainty. The last two GFS runs have tracked a little further south, if that trend continues over the next two runs then the strongest winds won't even reach the south coast. On the other hand HIRLAM shows something stronger now than it did this morning...

There was a lot of uncertaintly before the Christmas Eve storm in 1997 too. It wasn't until very strong winds starting being recorded in Ireland that the UK Met Office issed a flash warning for severe winds. Models have improved since then but still aren't perfect.

snowstorm2013

I was talking to a guy an hour ago who knows someone in dublin airport and he reckons that met e are confident that even the south wont get anything stronger than a force 9 with gusts of 120kmph max. Thats perhaps the reason for just the orange level alert. I only passing on what I was told.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

I dunno, I mean "very strong" winds are very strong.

There is still some uncertainty. The last two GFS runs have tracked a little further south, if that trend continues over the next two runs then the strongest winds won't even reach the south coast. On the other hand HIRLAM shows something stronger now than it did this morning...

There was a lot of uncertaintly before the Christmas Eve storm in 1997 too. It wasn't until very strong winds starting being recorded in Ireland that the UK Met Office issed a flash warning for severe winds. Models have improved since then but still aren't perfect.

Ok, I'll accept that explanation Maq :pac:

maquiladora

KingdomRushed

This messageboard is the only place where there's talk of this storm in the country. With all the other storms there was some hype. Pictures of the sea swell forecast all over journal.ie and independent and broadsheet and all. So what's the story? Is this gonna be a busted flush? Have met.ie got some update on this or some insight that's beyond the what's showing in the models which we can see?

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Where is that from Maq?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Where is that from Maq?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~All

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~All

Met Eireann have an orange warning for sea areas in their update. if its only orange out at sea it will be a while before a red warning over land..

maquiladora

The cloud head seems to be a bit further northeast than the ECM simulated image for 3pm. It might be a timing difference rather than a track difference though.

Looking very windy for Munster and south Leinster on this.

Xenji

Around what time would we be expecting the storm to make landfall tomorrow?

Hooter23

The weather on TV there she said storm for the west and south (Munster & South Connaught) so Galway might get some of the strong winds too or nothing as we are very close to the center of the storm.........

Hooter23

Hooter23 wrote: »

The weather on TV there she said storm for the west and south (Munster & South Connaught) so Galway might get some of the strong winds too or nothing as we are very close to the center of the storm.........

Theres a weather guy talking about 2014s weather on rte now
Oh its Ken Ring......lol he said august would be the warmest Duh!

He also said there would be snow in 3rd week of febuary they should have asked him why he didnt warn us non stop storms this winter......

allthedoyles

Xenji wrote: »

Around what time would we be expecting the storm to make landfall tomorrow?

According to yr.no , it will hit South-west Wexford between 1pm- 4pm Wednesday afternoon..........Gale force winds anyway

ninebeanrows

Ship already reporting sustained 50 knots wind to southeast of low centre.

patneve2

Funny how there was lying snow in parts of Ireland before the 1839 "night of the big wind"...

munsterlegend

patneve2 wrote: »

Funny how there was lying snow in parts of Ireland before the 1839 "night of the big wind"...

this will be more 'morning/afternoon of the big wind' though (unless of course downgrades)

Mr Cumulonimbus

Compared to last night's 18Z run the 12Z WRF seems to be pushing the strongest winds south but still grazing the south coast.

D.Campbell

munsterlegend wrote: »

this will be more 'morning/afternoon of the big wind' though (unless of course downgrades)

sorry I'm at bit confussed is this tmw morning/afternoon or Thursdays thanks your posts are so interesting and informative

ninebeanrows

Just to add to Mr_C's post in case it confuses people with no wind over much of the land.

Even the GFS which is a little south of the Hirlam / UKM / ECMWF solution brings a swathe of very strong winds over the country later in the day!

---

That's 120 km/hr gusts moving into Dublin region tomorrow evening.

ninebeanrows

D.Campbell wrote: »

sorry I'm at bit confussed is this tmw morning/afternoon or Thursdays thanks your posts are so interesting and informative

This is tomorrow, i agree the thread title should be changed to illustrate this, it is confusing considering the storm will have exited before Thursday!

munsterlegend

D.Campbell wrote: »

sorry I'm at bit confussed is this tmw morning/afternoon or Thursdays thanks your posts are so interesting and informative

I think you are are confusing me for Maq! the experts here believe its tomorrow morning before it will hit and continue tomorrow afternoon/evening depending where you live. of course you should stay tuned for updates as its track is not certain.

patneve2

My ideas for tomorrow:
The south coast could easily get 140/150 kmh gusts tomorrow (could be worse if track changes)
Dublin I'm going more for 110/120 kmh gusts but could be slightly worse if track changes

maquiladora

There are some similarities....

D.Campbell

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think you are are confusing me for Maq! the experts here believe its tomorrow morning before it will hit and continue tomorrow afternoon/evening depending where you live. of course you should stay tuned for updates as its track is not certain.

yes you are right Im in the South in Cork

Mr Cumulonimbus

12Z Euro4 at +24 and +27 hours. Noticeably strong winds in the first chart for the SW.

philstar

there's been so many storms forecast over the past few weeks, do you think that there's a danger of the met office calling wolf

munsterlegend

philstar wrote: »

there's been so many storms forecast over the past few weeks, do you think that there's a danger of the met office calling wolf

Met Eireann have been very accurate in their forecasts but sometimes people read newspaper headlines who predict doomsday scenarios to sell papers and think its the Met who are supplying this info.

Sephiroth_dude

philstar wrote: »

there's been so many storms forecast over the past few weeks, do you think that there's a danger of the met office calling wolf

That would be great,since the week of the 18th dec ,there's been nothing but bloody storms.

downwiththatsor

The Eagle played it cool on Radio 1 now, orange alert no storminess stressed.

ninebeanrows

Cant believe that forecast on Radio 1!

- Seriously inadequate for what is inbound for Ireland tomorrow.

munsterlegend

downwiththatsor wrote: »

The Eagle played it cool on Radio 1 now, orange alert no storminess stressed.

in the short range what do met eireann rely on? is it hirlam or a combination?

ninebeanrows

ECMWF says a big Yes to a significant storm

-- What's the Eagle playing at?

leahyl

The winds have moved further south in some models though haven't they?

maquiladora

Any mention of Force 11 has now been removed from the latest sea area forecast. It was in the previous two forecasts.

Not sure why...perhaps the latest HARMONIE is showing a weaker low/more southerly track?

D.Campbell

Weathercheck wrote: »

Cant believe that forecast on Radio 1!

- Seriously inadequate for what is inbound for Ireland tomorrow.

TV3 said 130klm at most

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Any mention of Force 11 has now been removed from the latest sea area forecast. It was in the previous two forecasts.

Not sure why...perhaps the latest HARMONIE is showing a weaker low/more southerly track?

I'm a little taken a back by it. They could have a serious back lash tomorrow.

The ECMWF is extreme, the EURO4 has sustained 70mph winds touching Valentia!