The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

maquiladora

Macy0161 wrote: »

Without getting into the pro's and con's of the warning, the radio station news and online sources (such as The Journal), do tend to run with any warnings issued.

Yes, thats true. I just think the average person gets a better impression of the weather from the TV forecasts after the news, and I'm sure there will be more detailed warnings explained on the TV forecast tonight.

Cantona's Collars

How much rain do we expect to get from this system? Slaney is still running high through Enniscorthy & was topped up by some more heavy rain last night.Noticed the sandbags being removed this morning......too soon??

billie1b

Rain falling as 'wet snow' in Blanchardstown

maquiladora

Latest FAX chart for 6am tomorrow places the low further south than the 06Z GFS.

12Z runs will be interesting.

Cantona's Collars

RTE forecast just over,going with the track that Maq's latest chart gives.

Was kinda hard to concentrate with Audrey wearing that tight dress:D

BorneTobyWilde

The12thMan wrote: »

How often do the models update?

Spring catalog out soon , some lovely floral dresses to be had

Kerrydude1981

zerks wrote: »

RTE forecast just over,going with the track that Maq's latest chart gives.

Was kinda hard to concentrate with Audrey wearing that tight dress:D

Very easy lose concentration when Audrey is on

ninebeanrows

Our storm just coming into view on the latest satellite imagery as a cloud leaf due west of Ireland

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Our storm just coming into view on the latest satellite imagery as a cloud leaf due west of Ireland

Yep. ECM overlay.

Red Pepper

Important question

Will this storm wash away all the snow on high ground (500m+) or will it be cold enough to add to it?

I gots to know...

howlinwolf

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest FAX chart for 6am tomorrow places the low further south than the 06Z GFS.

12Z runs will be interesting.

here's hopin it continues to drop south, this storm is just a little too much for my liking... some of the models and charts that were posted last night were just scary, we might be slightly more out of the firing line here in the inland south but still looking worrying for the south coast

Larbre34

Kerrydude1981 wrote: »

Very easy lose concentration when Audrey is on

*makes mental note to review the 1 news on the Player later!

Back on topic, I think we might just dodge a bullet tomorrow? UK Met are going for direct hit on the Bristol Channel with much lesser effects on the island of Ireland

Larbre34

Red Pepper wrote: »

Important question

Will this storm wash away all the snow on high ground (500m+) or will it be cold enough to add to it?

I gots to know...

It will wash away some of it, the temperature will increase with the storm and then decrease again tomorrow night with more wintry showers, the effect on gross accumulation of snow will depend on too many local variations to predict now but there will probably be snow on the usual peaks for most of the week

maquiladora

Larbre34 wrote: »

*makes mental note to review the 1 news on the Player later!

Back on topic, I think we might just dodge a bullet tomorrow? UK Met are going for direct hit on the Bristol Channel with much lesser effects on the island of Ireland

That was the previous track they went with until the morning. Shifted north now.

ninebeanrows

Larbre34 wrote: »

*makes mental note to review the 1 news on the Player later!

Back on topic, I think we might just dodge a bullet tomorrow? UK Met are going for direct hit on the Bristol Channel with much lesser effects on the island of Ireland

The UK MetO do not forecast for Republic of Ireland, their charts will not cover the expected winds for Ireland even if at times some of their risk areas run over our land.

Larbre34

I think I speak for everyone when I say eek.

howlinwolf

Weathercheck wrote: »

The UK MetO do not forecast for Republic of Ireland, their charts will not cover the expected winds for Ireland even if at times some of their risk areas run over our land.

are there any other signs of this system starting to track south or is it just one models view?

ninebeanrows

howlinwolf wrote: »

are there any other signs of this system starting to track south or is it just one models view?

The 6z GFS was further south than the 0z.

That is all i can see. The EURO4 is further south than the ECMWF, HIRLAM etc but its trend run by run is to move the centre further north.

Anyway the 12z are just one hour away so we will have a much better idea!;)

howlinwolf

Weathercheck wrote: »

The 6z GFS was further south than the 0z.

That is all i can see. The EURO4 is further south than the ECMWF, HIRLAM etc but its trend run by run is to move the centre further north.

Anyway the 12z are just one hour away so we will have a much better idea!;)

at what point do you think it becomes a now cast type situation where the models don't come into it anymore ....some time later tonight?

Villain

maquiladora wrote: »

That was the previous track they went with until the morning. Shifted north now.

They have updated them in last 2 hrs

Harps

howlinwolf wrote: »

at what point do you think it becomes a now cast type situation where the models don't come into it anymore ....some time later tonight?

These sort of storms are always a nowcast to an extent, usually they end up further north than was forecast. I haven't had the chance to catch up with the latest models yet but if there's still no definite agreement by now then it's going to be a wait and see situation, once the storm starts to take shape in the Atlantic we'll start to get a clearer picture

patneve2

I can see the storm track being pretty similar to the 06z, possibly a touch North of that. Anyways, 12z will be out soon so we'll have a better idea. As usual the initial Southerly gales will probably feel stronger than the SW gales that will follow (in my location at least).

Villain

Latest UK MET update for storm

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM is more severe.

Larger area of >30 m/s winds approaching the southwest, wider area of inland strong gales and >30 m/s appearing in Irish Sea again.

Track looks similar to the previous run but the low itself is more intense.

maquiladora

On the other hands, looks like 12Z GFS is going to be weaker and further south again?

leahyl

Which is the more reliable model?

aboyro

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z HIRLAM is more severe.

Larger area of >30 m/s winds approaching the southwest, wider area of inland strong gales and >30 m/s appearing in Irish Sea again.

Track looks similar to the previous run but the low itself is more intense.

not happy about this.

ninebeanrows

GFS more severe than 6z!

- Meanwhile chucking it with snow here.

Too much for my poor weather heart to take!

patneve2

GFS 12z a bit weaker.

BorneTobyWilde

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z HIRLAM is more severe.

Larger area of >30 m/s winds approaching the southwest, wider area of inland strong gales and >30 m/s appearing in Irish Sea again.

Track looks similar to the previous run but the low itself is more intense.