The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

leahyl

4pm tomorrow :eek:

JanuarySnowstor

12z is stronger though a nudge further south gfs.
All looks certain is that the south coast will get severe winds for about 3 hours

sunbabe08

leahyl wrote: »

4pm tomorrow :eek:

ahhh come here, mother nature is having a laugh now :rolleyes:

maquiladora

12Z GFS has the strongest winds a bit further south off the southwest coast.



Not a huge difference from the 06Z really, but quite different from the 12Z HIRLAM which puts the strongest winds straight into the southwest and not under the south coast.

The exact track, timing and structure of the low will make all the difference.

leahyl

So we're still none the wiser really what the hell this beast will do :pac:

patneve2

As Jsnowstorm said the only certain thing at this stage is that the S coast will get a big battering.

red_bairn

leahyl wrote: »

So we're still none the wiser really what the hell this beast will do :pac:

It'll give ya a little tickle on the tummy in Cork.

ninebeanrows

Yes Hirlam looks vicious.

12z actually brings them high winds inland more so than the 6z run in the next few frames though.

ninebeanrows

leahyl wrote: »

So we're still none the wiser really what the hell this beast will do :pac:

No I think we have a good handle of what will happen. The swathe of high winds will move up the country from southwest to northeast through the day. Most violent gusts in the south.

GFS and Hirlam quite similar really, obviously few nuances with big differences but the general theme for this storm to hit the southern half of Ireland is shown by both models.

Very unlikely to miss!

maquiladora

12Z UKMO track looks very similar to the 0Z but the low itself is a little deeper.

Getting to a point where global models may not be the most useful resource though.

leahyl

Weathercheck wrote: »

No I think we have a good handle of what will happen. The swathe of high winds will move up the country from southwest to northeast through the day. Most violent gusts in the south.

GFS and Hirlam quite similar really, obviously few nuances with big differences but the general theme for this storm to hit the southern half of Ireland is shown by both models.

Very unlikely to miss!

How long should any one area experience these winds for?

Bigcheeze

Due to fly out of DUB early tomorrow, back late at night. Fair to say I'll dodge this ?

ninebeanrows

UKM shows best blended track of low centre

Tracking rapidly northeast.

Larbre34

Probable Red Alert from ME in the early AM so?

patneve2

Ha, wouldn't want to be out there tomorrow: http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Munster/Skellig_Rocks/hour_by_hour.html

maquiladora

Larbre34 wrote: »

Probable Red Alert from ME in the early AM so?

The GFS shows mean winds on the exposed southwest coast 40 km/h above the criteria for a red warning.

Villain

I don't believe they will issue a red warning until about 24 hours out so may well come shortly.

aboyro

what worries me is that the peak wind times coincide with school finishing. i'd much rather not expose the kids to the effects of the storm forecast:eek:

Bandito909

Meant to take the other half over to kerry for valentine's for the weekend.

Any idea if kerry with will be a disaster zone? :pac:

ninebeanrows

I think Red Warning should be delivered on 9pm News/ Forecast if things still on track.

It is too late issuing it tomorrow morning as the storm will already be making landfall in the southwest.

leahyl

Eh, talk about being conservative:

From met.ie:

Wet and windy tomorrow with heavy rain spreading northwards through the morning and then turning to showers during the afternoon. Southerly winds will be very strong over Munster, Connacht and south Leinster during the morning, ease for a time around the middle of the day and then veer westerly and become strong again in the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees

There is an orange warning there though which says winds up to 130kmph - but they kind of play it down in the main forecast.

patneve2

met.ie are going to have to make a decision soon...they are probably waiting for the 12z ECM

ninebeanrows

leahyl wrote: »

Eh, talk about being conservative:

From met.ie:

Wet and windy tomorrow with heavy rain spreading northwards through the morning and then turning to showers during the afternoon. Southerly winds will be very strong over Munster, Connacht and south Leinster during the morning, ease for a time around the middle of the day and then veer westerly and become strong again in the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees

There is an orange warning there though which says winds up to 130kmph - but they kind of play it down in the main forecast.

I know i have hyped things in the past only for it to be much watered down. However that forecast is way too understated, most models are showing near hurricane force sustained winds along some Southern/Southwestern coasts.

Tactical

Bandito909 wrote: »

Meant to take the other half over to kerry for valentine's for the weekend.

Any idea if kerry with will be a disaster zone? :pac:

That"s true love. Taking the other half to bad weather

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Eh, talk about being conservative:

From met.ie:

Wet and windy tomorrow with heavy rain spreading northwards through the morning and then turning to showers during the afternoon. Southerly winds will be very strong over Munster, Connacht and south Leinster during the morning, ease for a time around the middle of the day and then veer westerly and become strong again in the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees

There is an orange warning there though which says winds up to 130kmph - but they kind of play it down in the main forecast.

I dunno, I mean "very strong" winds are very strong.

There is still some uncertainty. The last two GFS runs have tracked a little further south, if that trend continues over the next two runs then the strongest winds won't even reach the south coast. On the other hand HIRLAM shows something stronger now than it did this morning...

There was a lot of uncertaintly before the Christmas Eve storm in 1997 too. It wasn't until very strong winds starting being recorded in Ireland that the UK Met Office issed a flash warning for severe winds. Models have improved since then but still aren't perfect.

snowstorm2013

I was talking to a guy an hour ago who knows someone in dublin airport and he reckons that met e are confident that even the south wont get anything stronger than a force 9 with gusts of 120kmph max. Thats perhaps the reason for just the orange level alert. I only passing on what I was told.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

I dunno, I mean "very strong" winds are very strong.

There is still some uncertainty. The last two GFS runs have tracked a little further south, if that trend continues over the next two runs then the strongest winds won't even reach the south coast. On the other hand HIRLAM shows something stronger now than it did this morning...

There was a lot of uncertaintly before the Christmas Eve storm in 1997 too. It wasn't until very strong winds starting being recorded in Ireland that the UK Met Office issed a flash warning for severe winds. Models have improved since then but still aren't perfect.

Ok, I'll accept that explanation Maq :pac:

maquiladora

KingdomRushed

This messageboard is the only place where there's talk of this storm in the country. With all the other storms there was some hype. Pictures of the sea swell forecast all over journal.ie and independent and broadsheet and all. So what's the story? Is this gonna be a busted flush? Have met.ie got some update on this or some insight that's beyond the what's showing in the models which we can see?

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Where is that from Maq?