Wales vs France, Fri 21 Feb 8pm, BBC/RTE

irishbucsfan

I don't really think Gatland cares very much about his opensides distribution. It's an irrelevancy to that style of play.

Ultinately, Warburton is one of the strongest and most balanced breakdown players in Europe. He's a far stronger athlete than Tipuric, it's not even a comparison that bears considering. Tipuric could be cleared out by Richie Gray. Tipuric is valuable in a broken game against a team who cannot keep up with their own possession, he is excellent at capitalising on teams like that. Teams like that should not exist at international level. Warburton is excellent in a team looking to control possession and play intelligent, dominant offensive rugby, which is why he suited Gatland to the ground. And why he was so excellent in Australia.


There is a much more important question for Welsh rugby, which is whether they will ever be able to successfully implement that game plan if their backline continue to play the way they are. Without Mike Phillips I don't see where they are supposed to control the game in the halfbacks. Since Phillips has gone downhill they've looked incapable of it. So I definitely think there is justification for them to stand off a lot more, which would justify Tipuric... but that's not something I see Gatland ever doing really.

aimee1

In the last few years warburton is either injured or not on form because he is lacking game time. Yet he is hyped up as being a rugby great. Bizarre.

Orlaw3136

Not being smart but :-

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Tipuric may be better at the defensive breakdown but Warburton is a clearly superior player in every other facet of play as well as being a very strong player.

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Ultinately, Warburton is one of the strongest and most balanced breakdown players in Europe. He's a far stronger athlete than Tipuric, it's not even a comparison that bears considering. Tipuric could be cleared out by Richie Gray.

edit : are you distinguishing between Tipuric vs side in possession and Tipuric when his own side is in possession ?

corny

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Ultinately, Warburton is one of the strongest and most balanced breakdown players in Europe. He's a far stronger athlete than Tipuric, it's not even a comparison that bears considering. Tipuric could be cleared out by Richie Gray. Tipuric is valuable in a broken game against a team who cannot keep up with their own possession, he is excellent at capitalising on teams like that. Teams like that should not exist at international level. Warburton is excellent in a team looking to control possession and play intelligent, dominant offensive rugby, which is why he suited Gatland to the ground. And why he was so excellent in Australia.

Excluding the word 'intelligent' (Gatlands plan is fairly predictable) thats the nail on the head right there.

Whether Gatland is right to pick him solely for that purpose is a different story.

irishbucsfan

Orlaw3136 wrote: »

Not being smart but :-







edit : are you distinguishing between Tipuric vs side in possession and Tipuric when his own side is in possession ?

Yes, I think I quite clearly distinguished between the defensive breakdown and otherwise.

Rightwing

Huge game, a win for Fr will in all probability give them the GS.

petebricquette

Rightwing wrote: »

Huge game, a win for Fr will in all probability give them the GS.

Nah, I doubt that. They've looked very shaky so far. As have Wales. I'm hoping it'll be nice and open and exciting but I feel like it'll be all-out attack and no decent defence.

death1234567

Simon Zebo

ScissorPaperRock wrote: »

Mad to see Phillips benched

have you not seen him play? He's been terrible for a long, long time now.

Buer

In relation to Warburton vs Tipuric, it's hard to defend Warburton when he's well off form but, on form, he's absolutely the superior player. I feel his performances are downplayed significantly and there's a resentment towards him for being named Lions captain and being Gatland's pet.

In terms of power, Tipuric can be chewed up and spat out at times and seeing him ejected out of a ruck is not unusual. He's extremely talented but, if he's not in quick over the ball, his influence at the ruck is minimal where Warburton is far more physically imposing, counter rucking, slowing ball down and pulling people in.

Warburton's showing in the second test has been downplayed on here. If that was an Irish player it would be revered and go down in folklore. It was a huge performance.

If he's not performing though, it's hard to select him.

former legend

Buer wrote: »

In relation to Warburton vs Tipuric, it's hard to defend Warburton when he's well off form but, on form, he's absolutely the superior player. I feel his performances are downplayed significantly and there's a resentment towards him for being named Lions captain and being Gatland's pet.

In terms of power, Tipuric can be chewed up and spat out at times and seeing him ejected out of a ruck is not unusual. He's extremely talented but, if he's not in quick over the ball, his influence at the ruck is minimal where Warburton is far more physically imposing, counter rucking, slowing ball down and pulling people in.

Warburton's showing in the second test has been downplayed on here. If that was an Irish player it would be revered and go down in folklore. It was a huge performance.

If he's not performing though, it's hard to select him.

I don't disagree with any of that, but Lydiate is a huge man and Faletau isn't exactly a 10-stone weakling either so I'd question whether Warburton's physical presence is really necessary, I just think the Welsh backrow would have more balance with Tipuric in it.

You can argue that Warburton gets unmerited stick from Irish observers, I think that's possible, but I would also argue that he gets a lot more credit from his defenders than he deserves. Almost every time Warburton is mentioned in a positive way, it's preceded by "when he's fit and on form..." but how often does that really happen?

Yes, he was very good in the second Lions test but what about the first? Pretty anonymous IIRC.

[And by the same flawed logic that Welsh observers would apply to the O'Driscoll dropping, the performances in third test from which Warburton was absent clearly show that he should never have been picked in the first place...]

Rightwing

petebricquette wrote: »

Nah, I doubt that. They've looked very shaky so far. As have Wales. I'm hoping it'll be nice and open and exciting but I feel like it'll be all-out attack and no decent defence.

If they beat Wales, who have they left?, the Scots, and then us...in Paris.

sydthebeat

France

Rightwing wrote: »

If they beat Wales, who have they left?, the Scots, and then us...in Paris.

Tommorrows game is the pinnacle as I see it.

Lets not forget that France came LAST last year, they have superb individual players but a coach that is intent on Shackleing then.... So their whole is worse than their parts. The majority of attacking threat so far in this year's competition has come from broken open play. They have created zilch from structure.

England on the other hand are much better than their individual parts. They have a coach who celebrates their strengths and works at honing then.
Apart from a mind block last year they would have won the slam.


So no, France beating Wales today does not "probably" give them the slam.

thomond2006

The roof will be shut tonight: http://www.rugbyrama.fr/rugby/6-nations/2014/6-nations-2014-xv-de-france-le-toit-du-millenium-stadium-sera-ferme_sto4145818/story.shtml

Rightwing

sydthebeat wrote: »

Today's game is the pinnacle as I see it.

Lets not forget that France came LAST last year, they have superb individual players but a coach that is intent on Shackleing then.... So their whole is worse than their parts. The majority of attacking threat so far in this year's competition has come from broken open play. They have created zilch from structure.

England on the other hand are much better than their individual parts. They have a coach who celebrates their strengths and works at honing then.
Apart from a mind block last year they would have won the slam.


So no, France beating Wales today does not "probably" give them the slam.

Once the Fr get momemtum behind them, very hard to stop them. Tonight is their decider.

sydthebeat

France

Rightwing wrote: »

Once the Fr get momemtum behind them, very hard to stop them. Tonight is their decider.

generic dross........

wandatowell

Simon Zebo

Looking forward to a Friday night game.


France to win her.

Rightwing

sydthebeat wrote: »

generic dross........

Watch and learn.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

sydthebeat wrote: »

generic dross........

Yep. The French haven't had "momentum" or consistency for years now. I'll be surprised if they beat both us and Wales based on their performances to date

thomond2006

France got momentum in the first ten minutes of the second half against Italy and didn't push home. They got momentum from two fortunate tries against England and didn't push home. Does that suggest a mental frailty? They have some outstanding talents like Picamoles, Fofana and Dulin (who I think is really underrated) but the team are underperforming. This is a serious litmus test and it's a cliché but the first 10/15 minutes are massive.

irishbucsfan

Rightwing wrote: »

Once the Fr get momemtum behind them, very hard to stop them. Tonight is their decider.

Like a rugby fortune cookie!

BoarHunter

Simon Zebo

I think Fritz is clearly badly missed. Bastareaud does not have the same pace. Having said that scoring tries from broken play or structure is 5 points regardless. There will be broken play in every match and if we manage to capitalize on that we can win. Our team is made from individualities who can get 5 points out of little mistakes.

Hard to have a better game plan when the back line should have been Parra Tales Huget Fofana Fritz Guitoune Dulin. Instead of that we have Doussain Plisson Huget Fofana Bastareaud Bonneval Dulin.

Lots of changes in the back row as well and the front row. We're doing with what we have. Yes we have depht but this is about team chemistry here. You can't expect much in that case. Still winning so far and I'm hoping a win tonight so we can prepare for a great night in Paris.

Rightwing

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Like a rugby fortune cookie!

Sort of the opposite to Irl, when everything goes Irl's way, we tend to blow up on the last hurdle. The Fr are masters at smashing teams like us when there's a slam at stake.

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

Rightwing wrote: »

Sort of the opposite to Irl, when everything goes Irl's way, we tend to blow up on the last hurdle. The Fr are masters at smashing teams like us when there's a slam at stake.

I'm not sure you got what he was saying.

stephen_n

BoarHunter wrote: »

I think Fritz is clearly badly missed. Bastareaud does not have the same pace. Having said that scoring tries from broken play or structure is 5 points regardless. There will be broken play in every match and if we manage to capitalize on that we can win. Our team is made from individualities who can get 5 points out of little mistakes.

Hard to have a better game plan when the back line should have been Parra Tales Huget Fofana Fritz Guitoune Dulin. Instead of that we have Doussain Plisson Huget Fofana Bastareaud Bonneval Dulin.

Lots of changes in the back row as well and the front row. We're doing with what we have. Yes we have depht but this is about team chemistry here. You can't expect much in that case. Still winning so far and I'm hoping a win tonight so we can prepare for a great night in Paris.

Do you feel it's more the personnel not clicking? more so than the tactics PSA is employing? I thought against Italy, France looked like they really didn't know what they were trying to do, more so than not clicking as a unit.

molloyjh

France

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience wrote: »

Yep. The French haven't had "momentum" or consistency for years now. I'll be surprised if they beat both us and Wales based on their performances to date

thomond2006 wrote: »

France got momentum in the first ten minutes of the second half against Italy and didn't push home. They got momentum from two fortunate tries against England and didn't push home. Does that suggest a mental frailty? They have some outstanding talents like Picamoles, Fofana and Dulin (who I think is really underrated) but the team are underperforming. This is a serious litmus test and it's a cliché but the first 10/15 minutes are massive.

Personally I'd rather not be going to Paris needing the win, even if I do see France as the easier of the two away games. If that even makes sense. Against England I was reminded of 2007 (which is why I've brought it up a few times lately). They knew what they needed to do at the end and they did it. That they didn't look convincing between scores doesn't change the end result. They are that side that can turn things around in the 80th minute if they need to. And they've done it who knows how many times at this stage. There is no way I could enjoy that game in Paris if it was the Championship decider.

If we win this weekend and France lose then England are out of the running and it's a 3 horse race. Wales will have a hard time making up the points difference, especially away to England, so in all probability they'd be gone. And with us at home to Italy you'd have to think our points difference would be very healthy going to Paris. While France are the team to pull a 3-7 point win out of the bag at the death I don't see them trouncing us at all. We'd be going to Paris reasonably confident that we had the Championship, and then just looking for the GS. I would enjoy that game all the more for that.

So for me a Welsh win tonight is the only outcome I want to see.

BoarHunter wrote: »

I think Fritz is clearly badly missed. Bastareaud does not have the same pace. Having said that scoring tries from broken play or structure is 5 points regardless. There will be broken play in every match and if we manage to capitalize on that we can win. Our team is made from individualities who can get 5 points out of little mistakes.

Hard to have a better game plan when the back line should have been Parra Tales Huget Fofana Fritz Guitoune Dulin. Instead of that we have Doussain Plisson Huget Fofana Bastareaud Bonneval Dulin.

Lots of changes in the back row as well and the front row. We're doing with what we have. Yes we have depht but this is about team chemistry here. You can't expect much in that case. Still winning so far and I'm hoping a win tonight so we can prepare for a great night in Paris.

Regarding the bolded bit above, yes 5 points are 5 points. But against a solid defensive unit like Irelands (which has been very good so far) those opportunities are going to be at a premium. France needed 3 to beat an Italian side that had an incredibly hard time scoring when in the French 22. I don't see them getting the same number of opportunities against Ireland, nor the same fortune with us not converting our chances. Wales will be similar enough too (although may be a bit less clinical in opposition territory). Unless you have half backs that can control the game the way we did against Wales I think France will struggle tonight.

ScissorPaperRock

molloyjh wrote: »

So for me a Welsh win tonight is the only outcome I want to see.

This +1000

Orlaw3136

molloyjh wrote: »

So for me a Welsh win tonight is the only outcome I want to see.

I don't know. Given how dependent they are on momentum and how they can run away with games when their tails are up I would nearly rather see them out of the picture. Rule 1 against the Welsh, when you have your foot on your neck you don't let them up. If it does come down to a points shoot out on the last day (please, god, no) I would like to have them out of the running.

matthew8

Simon Zebo

Even if Wales win tonight I'd be shocked to see them win in Twickenham. They're not winning the 6 nations. Too much points difference to make up in any case. And besides, they don't look like a great team at all.

molloyjh

France

Orlaw3136 wrote: »

I don't know. Given how dependent they are on momentum and how they can run away with games when their tales are up I would nearly rather see them out of the picture. Rule 1 against the Welsh, when you have your foot on your neck you don't let them up. If it does come down to a points shoot out on the last day (please, god, no) I would like to have them out of the running.

At the end of the day we need to win 4 games to stand any chance. So we need to win either in London or Paris. If we don't we're out, end of. If we do that then the best Wales can do is come level on match points. It then comes down to points difference. They are on -15 and we are on +45. They would need to win at home to France, away to England and home to Scotland by a combined total of 60 points to even catch up to where we are now. That's a huge ask. Factor in a home win against Italy and they'd need to do more again than that.

In all reality they are pretty much out of the running if we stay in the running. The points difference is just too great.

Orlaw3136

molloyjh wrote: »

At the end of the day we need to win 4 games to stand any chance. So we need to win either in London or Paris. If we don't we're out, end of. If we do that then the best Wales can do is come level on match points. It then comes down to points difference. They are on -15 and we are on +45. They would need to win at home to France, away to England and home to Scotland by a combined total of 60 points to even catch up to where we are now. That's a huge ask. Factor in a home win against Italy and they'd need to do more again than that.

In all reality they are pretty much out of the running if we stay in the running. The points difference is just too great.

Can't disagree with any of that in its substance in fairness.

But, say they beat France by a score, they would need to hammer England and Scotland to be in the running and would still be subject to our results.

But, 60/2=30...I think if we put England out of it tomorrow winning by a score and Wales beat France similarly they could do a serious number on England, and playing Scotland at home, well, who's to say they wouldn't knock out a 30 pointer with us to play France away and France still in it too. (OK we would have the Italy game but there be dragons there regarding points difference)

NB I hate these posts because they don't operate on the basis that Ireland do the slam so I'm going to stop making them :pac:

molloyjh

France

Orlaw3136 wrote: »

Can't disagree with any of that in its substance in fairness.

But, say they beat France by a score, they would need to hammer England and Scotland to be in the running and would still be subject to our results.

But, 60/2=30...I think if we put England out of it tomorrow winning by a score and Wales beat France similarly they could do a serious number on England, and playing Scotland at home, well, who's to say they wouldn't knock out a 30 pointer with us to play France away and France still in it too. (OK we would have the Italy game but there be dragons there regarding points difference)

NB I hate these posts because they don't operate on the basis that Ireland do the slam so I'm going to stop making them :pac:

It would be nice. But if France go into the last game with 4 wins from 4 they're more likely to get the GS than we would be. Them going in 3 from 4 with 30 or so points to make up would be a huge advantage for us.

A single digit Welsh win here tonight and an Irish win tomorrow would take out Wales and England as well as give us the advantage going into the game in Paris. We're already 23 points to the good and that would put us to around 30 points to the good with a home game against Italy to come (with France away to Scotland).

Orlaw3136

molloyjh wrote: »

It would be nice. But if France go into the last game with 4 wins from 4 they're more likely to get the GS than we would be. Them going in 3 from 4 with 30 or so points to make up would be a huge advantage for us.

A single digit Welsh win here tonight and an Irish win tomorrow would take out Wales and England as well as give us the advantage going into the game in Paris. We're already 23 points to the good and that would put us to around 30 points to the good with a home game against Italy to come (with France away to Scotland).

You'd run the risk of getting into Hookosophy here, but say the French have blown the slam and need to make up the points; unconstrained by expectation they swing from the hip while running like deer, the croud howls and the bands strike up...

...versus we both being on for the slam and the pressure gets to them so that the 'other france' turn up and our victory parade starts at the first scrum.

But yeah, I would agree that I don't think they would make up a 30 odd point spread against us if that's what it comes down to on the last day (please let there be more in play for us than that though).

thomond2006

Word going around that Wyn-Jones might be out. That would be a huge blow to Wales.

duckysauce

Simon Zebo

thomond2006 wrote: »

Word going around that Wyn-Jones might be out. That would be a huge blow to Wales.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/alun-wyn-jones-injury-doubt-6732533

Ugo Monye spacecraft experience

I didn't realise Coombs was dropped entirely from the 23, wtf

Rightwing

ScissorPaperRock wrote: »

This +1000

Indeed, it's an absolute no-brainer that we should be hoping for a Welsh win.

19543261

Simon Zebo

I dont understand you all.

If it's agreed neither have been playing well, why is everyone so confident Wales will do it? It's not like France dont have an answer to Wales' physicality.

thomond2006

Allez Les Tricolores!!!!

danthefan

I know Wales winning suits us but I just find it hard to support them these days, used to like them a lot but just have been turned off them as of late. So screw it, cmon France, and hopefully we've a Slam decider in Paris.

rrpc

France

danthefan wrote: »

I know Wales winning suits us but I just find it hard to support them these days, used to like them a lot but just have been turned off them as of late. So screw it, cmon France, and hopefully we've a Slam decider in Paris.

Might be something to do with their craven attitude to the HEC and Pro12 maybe?

Splitters

Rightwing

danthefan wrote: »

I know Wales winning suits us but I just find it hard to support them these days, used to like them a lot but just have been turned off them as of late. So screw it, cmon France, and hopefully we've a Slam decider in Paris.

In a way yes, that would be the ideal scenario. What an occasion. No one could deny that if we won that one, it would be some achievement.

who_me

danthefan wrote: »

I know Wales winning suits us but I just find it hard to support them these days, used to like them a lot but just have been turned off them as of late. So screw it, cmon France, and hopefully we've a Slam decider in Paris.

Mmm... nah. I'll take any advantage we can get at this stage. It's not like we're winning Grand Slams for the ****s 'n' giggles.. Chances are, even if France lose today they'll still have a chance of a championship win going into the last weekend. It'll be no friendly.

CatFromHue

When Gatland sad a few years ago that the Welsh hate the Irish or that we were the team they most want to beat (or something like that) I think he was partly right. Certainly he was alot more right than wrong anyway.

I think there's abit of the Welsh were so good for so long when Ireland weren't in the 70/80's and then Ireland have been pretty good in the 00's when Wales were either rubbish or excellent that the fans look at each other and have plenty of reasons historically why the other is rubbish and the other great.

Then our clubs play each other and the Welsh fans contempt for the Rabo and their bizarre opinions of the Irish teams that the rivalry is fairly big now. They're the new England really.

Happyman42

A Welsh friend on Facebook reporting scrapping and fighting in the Welsh dressing room. Could be a hiding for them if they are still in disarray at 8pm.

sydthebeat

France

Happyman42 wrote: »

A Welsh friend on Facebook reporting scrapping and fighting in the Welsh dressing room. Could be a hiding for them if they are still in disarray at 8pm.

Or they could come out and absolutely batter the French.

I hope so cos I've a few quid on it

Happyman42

sydthebeat wrote: »

Or they could come out and absolutely batter the French.

I hope so cos I've a few quid on it

I fancied them myself before I heard that news. Seems to be something deeply rotten in the Welsh set-up atm. Bound to show on the pitch.

19543261

Simon Zebo

For me it's simply a matter of the English team being fresh, easy to appreciate and enjoyable to watch. However you look at it, Wales just arent anything. They're a bore. Gatlandball is a cancer.

Fireball07

Love the Friday night French games, they tend to have a cracking atmosphere.


I think a Wales win would certainly suit us better... but I really think we'll do it. In the past, we might have been fazed by having to go to France to seal a Championship/Grand Slam. But now... I think we are a better team than them, and we won't bow under the pressure. Much more worried about England- PSA doesn't scare me, despite having some unbelievable talent at his disposal.

Kayless

Happyman42 wrote: »

A Welsh friend on Facebook reporting scrapping and fighting in the Welsh dressing room. Could be a hiding for them if they are still in disarray at 8pm.

To add to that AWJ has had to pull out of the match with a foot injury :eek: not looking good for Wales

ThisRegard

RTE do pretty good intros in fairness.