Dublin (and everywhere) house prices FALL in January 2014

moxin

Tracked from Sept when the official CSO turnaround occurred. http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2014/#.Uw8fyM7HxRQ
Remember these are only mortgage based figures, not Cash Buyers wo represent 54% of the overall market according to Dermot O’Leary, economist with Goodbody Stockbrokers.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=88617827&postcount=2643

Nationally they fell -1.3 in Jan '14 with also a Sept turnaround.

Dub overall rate of change
Sept +3.9
Oct +2.3
Nov +1.3
Dec +0.3
Jan '14 -1.3

Dub houses rate of change
Sept +4.2
Oct +2.0
Nov +1.4
Dec +0.1
Jan '14 -1.5

Dublin mentioned as there is an obsession here by bulls reporting "desirable" areas of Dublin. Fifth month in a row the figures are not looking good for the bulls

Coupled with the declining Mortgage drawdowns in 2013 (http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=89181923&postcount=10 ), this much heralded "recovery" in house prices has questions over it.

ted1

"
In Dublin residential property prices fell by 1.3% in January and were 13.6% higher than a year ago. Dublin house prices fell by 1.5% in the month and were 13.2% higher compared to a year earlier. Dublin apartment prices were 16.7% higher when compared with the same month of 2013. See Tables 6, 7 and 8. However, it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series.
"

so a slight decrease in Jan, with a smaller sample size but yet an increase of
13.6% dublin residential
13.2% Dublin house
16.7% dublin apartment
on Jan 13 figures.

I think your the Bull. ignoring all the increases and focusing on one stat which has a much smaller sample.

take a look at yesterday Allsop results.

moxin

ted1 wrote: »

"
In Dublin residential property prices fell by 1.3% in January and were 13.6% higher than a year ago. Dublin house prices fell by 1.5% in the month and were 13.2% higher compared to a year earlier. Dublin apartment prices were 16.7% higher when compared with the same month of 2013. See Tables 6, 7 and 8. However, it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series.
"
I think your the Bull. ignoring all the increases and focusing on one stat which has a much smaller sample.

take a look at yesterday Allsop results.

The sample size has been small for apartments every single month. Allsop reserve prices are always way below the market price and bidders up the price. Next excuse?

so a slight decrease in Jan, with a smaller sample size but yet an increase of
13.6% dublin residential
13.2% Dublin house
16.7% dublin apartment
on Jan 13 figures.

Sure, two can play at your game.

"House prices in Dublin are 48.2% lower than at their highest level in early 2007. Apartments in Dublin are 54.6% lower than they were in February 2007. Residential property prices in Dublin are 49.7% lower than at their highest level in February 2007. "

djimi

Its a lot more relevant comparing prices 12 months apart than it is comparing prices 7 years apart in fairness. Also a month is a very small sample of data, and while its an interesting trend, Id be inclined to see how it plays out over 6 months or even the next 12 months before basing too much on it.

ted1

moxin wrote: »

The sample size has been small for apartments every single month. Allsop reserve prices are always way below the market price and bidders up the price. Next excuse?



Sure, two can play at your game.

"House prices in Dublin are 48.2% lower than at their highest level in early 2007. Apartments in Dublin are 54.6% lower than they were in February 2007. Residential property prices in Dublin are 49.7% lower than at their highest level in February 2007. "

and that why they say
"However, it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series"

with regards trying to compare to 2007, you have just lost any credibility that you may have had. i think you'll even concede to that.

kennyb3

Such a lazy opening post. You do know they rebase the index at the start of each year?

moxin

ted1 wrote: »

and that why they say
"However, it should be noted that the sub-indices for apartments are based on low volumes of observed transactions and consequently suffer from greater volatility than other series"

with regards trying to compare to 2007, you have just lost any credibility that you may have had. i think you'll even concede to that.

No, you read it wrong twice.

You highlighted the sample size as an excuse for Jan 14 when it has been like that since day 1 of the index for Apartments only, a red herring.

Secondly to counteract the 4 month trend, you highlighted the 12 month trend. I responded tongue in cheek(with '07 trend) to highlight the ridiculous excuse you had trotted out. The last 4 months of price tracking is hell of alot relevant to today's market conditions than what happened in Jan '13.

moxin

kennyb3 wrote: »

Such a lazy opening post. You do know they rebase the index at the start of each year?

Did you say the same in Jan'13? :rolleyes:

So what is your own calculated take on the Jan '14 figures, up or down by how much? Provide proof if you can as we have a statistics office called the CSO to rely on for non-cash buyer figures.

Muahahaha

This could be the beginning of a dead cat bounce, cash buyers running out and tight credit might have begun to be reflected

ted1

moxin wrote: »

No, you read it wrong twice.

You highlighted the sample size as an excuse for Jan 14 when it has been like that since day 1 of the index for Apartments only, a red herring.

Secondly to counteract the 4 month trend, you highlighted the 12 month trend. I responded tongue in cheek(with '07 trend) to highlight the ridiculous excuse you had trotted out. The last 4 months of price tracking is hell of alot relevant to today's market conditions than what happened in Jan '13.

they telling us that the data can be skewed due to small sample size

secondly, like for like is a better result that 4 consecutive months.
you have different factors affecting prices when going over 4 months.

in the past 4 months, you have different tax years, Christmas, etc off course the prices will differ.

if you were comparing pumpkin prices would you look at 30 Oct V 1 Nov?

kennyb3

moxin wrote: »

Did you say the same in Jan'13? :rolleyes:

I didn't say anything (you can check if you like) - simply pointing out how pointless it is to compare across calendar years. You can of course compare back later in the year to earlier in the year. I was simply pointing out the inaccuracy of your OP if you care to challenge that statement please feel free.

You need to read the methodology more clearly imho. I don't see how rolleyes or trying to undermine/avoid my question makes you anymore less accurate.

moxin wrote: »

So what is your own calculated take on the Jan '14 figures, up or down by how much? Provide proof if you can as we have a statistics office called the CSO to rely on for non-cash buyer figures.

I have no take - they are standalone figures, a one month sample, as we've no details on how the rebasing is calculated or performed. I'll be happy to comment later in the year if you want to ask me then.

Frank Lee Midere

You can't tell much from one month. However I doubt if cash buyers are going to keep propping up a market which needs to see them pay 16% more this year. If cash exits the game, the game is over.

Mr.McLovin

I'd like to see at least the same trend continue until April before I'd be even optimistic about a return to sanity in the Dublin market

interesting all the same though

moxin

ted1 wrote: »

they telling us that the data can be skewed due to small sample size

secondly, like for like is a better result that 4 consecutive months.
you have different factors affecting prices when going over 4 months.

in the past 4 months, you have different tax years, Christmas, etc off course the prices will differ.

if you were comparing pumpkin prices would you look at 30 Oct V 1 Nov?

Where were these excuses when the CSO reported Rising prices in their index during the summer months of 2013?

cerastes

Muahahaha wrote: »

This could be the beginning of a dead cat bounce, cash buyers running out and tight credit might have begun to be reflected

Do you mean the beginning of the end of the dead cat bounce,

noodler

Don't think anyone has mentioned it yet but as usual its worth pointing out the CSO index does NOT take cash sales into consideration.

Thes are accounting almost half the sales at the moment according to estates agents, stockbrokers etc.

Regardless, I would not be making any great assertions based on one month's data.

Muahahaha

cerastes wrote: »

Do you mean the beginning of the end of the dead cat bounce,

Well no, not unless you understand a DCB in a different way that I do. In markets it takes places as a rise in prices after a sustained period of falls. We've had the sustained period of falls 2007-2012 and a period of rises (2013) so if a DCB is to occur I'd tend to think that right now is a sweet spot (economy spluttering, cash buyers running out, tight credit, etc). But another part of the equation is the supply side and we all know that that is currently constrained due to people wanting to move but can't because of negative equity.

This is far from a normal functioning property market, in fact with Nama involved it is highly disfunctional

stevedublin

Muahahaha wrote: »

In markets it takes places as a rise in prices after a sustained period of falls.

This is my understanding of 'Dead Cat Bounce"

Muahahaha wrote: »

We've had the sustained period of falls 2007-2012 and a period of rises (2013) so if a DCB is to occur ....

The period of rises (2013) would be the Dead Cat Bounce by your own definition!

I would anticipate a fall in prices now that the DCB has ended

Muahahaha

stevedublin wrote: »

This is my understanding of 'Dead Cat Bounce"

The period of rises (2013) would be the Dead Cat Bounce by your own definition!

I would anticipate a fall in prices now that the DCB has ended

Haha well I think if you drop a dead cat from a building it will hit the ground and bounce back up but then it will fall again. We don't yet know if we're in a DCB until prices fall after rises which came after sustained price drops. I don't think you can say the DCB has ended until the market has shown it has bottomed out for the second time. But then again I'm not an economist or trader, maybe they'd have a different view on when it begins and ends but one thing is for sure- with property markets being illiquid it is pretty difficult to read the market until six months after the event.

superman28

Everyone must aggree that cash buyers will run out soon. This is a simple fact.. they currently make up more than 50% of the market (leading to large jumps and bidding wars for the few houses that are available in Dublin)..

When this ends you are left with current property owners who are mostly in negative equity and won't move or buy.. and first time buyers who can't borrow (credit at very low levels),, so surely we can expect a return to flat/modest growth or even further drops in the housing market,, I would hold off buying anything for 6 - 12 months and wait for a more stable market,, mini bubbles will pop..

Mr.McLovin

superman28 wrote: »

Everyone must aggree that cash buyers will run out soon. This is a simple fact...

the simple fact is we have no idea how much cash is out there or if there is enough supply for it to run out anytime soon, maybe it will only run out as more credit is available, who knows really...

Barely Hedged

superman28 wrote: »

Everyone must aggree that cash buyers will run out soon. This is a simple fact.. they currently make up more than 50% of the market (leading to large jumps and bidding wars for the few houses that are available in Dublin)..

When this ends you are left with current property owners who are mostly in negative equity and won't move or buy.. and first time buyers who can't borrow (credit at very low levels),, so surely we can expect a return to flat/modest growth or even further drops in the housing market,, I would hold off buying anything for 6 - 12 months and wait for a more stable market,, mini bubbles will pop..

If you expect further drops, in what percentage range?

If you expect flat/modest growth, why not buy now? Why wait 6-12 months?

Barely Hedged

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

the simple fact is we have no idea how much cash is out there or if there is enough supply for it to run out anytime soon, maybe it will only run out as more credit is available, who knows really...

The UK property market, which is quite comparable to the Irish one, registers cash buyers of 30% - 50% on average as a proportion of all transactions. Even when you strip out the past two years where Euro zone residents have been dumping their cash on London property.

So, even though we had cash buyers registering around 5-10% of sales in 2010 in Ireland, they still form a large part of a property market whether it is considered by observers to be fully functioning or distorted (if either of these two states ever exist). So, theyre not going away.

Barely Hedged

moxin wrote: »

Tracked from Sept when the official CSO turnaround occurred. http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2014/#.Uw8fyM7HxRQ
Remember these are only mortgage based figures, not Cash Buyers wo represent 54% of the overall market according to Dermot O’Leary, economist with Goodbody Stockbrokers.
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=88617827&postcount=2643

Nationally they fell -1.3 in Jan '14 with also a Sept turnaround.

Dub overall rate of change
Sept +3.9
Oct +2.3
Nov +1.3
Dec +0.3
Jan '14 -1.3

Dub houses rate of change
Sept +4.2
Oct +2.0
Nov +1.4
Dec +0.1
Jan '14 -1.5

Dublin mentioned as there is an obsession here by bulls reporting "desirable" areas of Dublin. Fifth month in a row the figures are not looking good for the bulls

Coupled with the declining Mortgage drawdowns in 2013 (http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=89181923&postcount=10 ), this much heralded "recovery" in house prices has questions over it.

In your post, you appear to be bearish on the property market. What percentage drop do you see in the property market?

seb65

As it seems some on trackers are now going to be able to move their mortgages, this may free up some supply as well - but also increase demand for family homes.

moxin

Barely Hedged wrote: »

In your post, you appear to be bearish on the property market. What percentage drop do you see in the property market?

Yes, I am bearish and also questioned the factors behind the recent rises and the areas they were in. I ain't psychic, with the information we have that mortgage credit is slightly down, its a definitive supply of cash buyers, the LPT exemption is gone, the last incentive of CGT is the only one left for investors. I cannot see any major rises coming this year either nationally or for Dublin, we'll either go static or it will fall back to 2012 levels. Happy to be proved wrong in Jan '15 :P

lima

Fantaaaastic news :-D

Excuses coming from some people making me laugh.


Seriously though, it's obvs just one month. but in that month I have been actively viewing property and I have to say that I have seen properties go for way above the asking price.

One place on offer for e299 was up to e330 one week after initial viewings
Another place on offer for 295 was up to e340 the Tuesday after the Saturday viewing.

Both 2br in D6 and D3 - two very 'wanted' areas. I'm holding back (as I have been for two years for fear of commitment)

From what I saw I was expecting Jan rises to be very high. It's a quiet month though so it doesn't really mean anything, but it's great news all the same that there is a fall in prices.

Mr.McLovin

things won’t have been helped this year by the storm-like conditions across the country,” said Alan McQuaid.

Merrion Stockbrokers blames the weather

spaceHopper

Mr.McLovin wrote: »

Merrion Stockbrokers blames the weather

Em that's a corock of sh1t, it's a lagging index so the poperties we so as sold now were sale agreed back in october. The last two years January has always been one of the worst months for fall's or weaker rises. We'll see what happens. Hope it's the end of rises as another bouble won't be good for anybody. FYI misses and I bought two years ago so only looking out of interest

gaius c

noodler wrote: »

Don't think anyone has mentioned it yet but as usual its worth pointing out the CSO index does NOT take cash sales into consideration.

Thes are accounting almost half the sales at the moment according to estates agents, stockbrokers etc.

Regardless, I would not be making any great assertions based on one month's data.

Also, the index is reset every Jan so you can't make YOY comparisons either.

tigershould

Seems a good a place as any to paste this...

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/feb/10/ireland-struggling-buy-to-let-investors