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Dublin (and everywhere) house prices FALL in January 2014
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Barely Hedged wrote: »Exactly. I dont understand the logic of some posters here.
I consider 2010 - 2012 prices a floor for property prices. Why - terrible economic stats and outlook, 5% - 10% of the market were cash buyers and mortgage approvals and draw downs tanked.
Now we have the situation where economic stats are improving consecutively 50 odd % of the market (i.e. slightly above normal levels) are cash buyers. Now its pointed out that mortgage approvals are only slightly down on previous figures which showed marked improvements from 2011 levels and we have certain posters claiming the sky is going to fall again.
It all seems like straw clutching to me when you compare the two scenarios above.
Im not here saying prices are going to boom, im merely saying that if you think youre smart to hold off because prices are going to fall massively again, you'll be proven wrong
your posts appear defensive, as if you are trying to convince some of us of the stability of the property market. Most purchases are cash buyers, mortgage lending is falling. Sounds like you are worried.
The fact is prices are falling, they fell last month.
It's all in peoples heads. If they fall again next month and the month after then the self-fulfilling prophesy will start and prices will go down again.
Irish Independant and Journal.ie know this and are hiding this news about property prices falling so as to not knock the self-fulfilling prophesy of the Irish sheep0 -
The Spider wrote: »I've said it before, I'll say it again, the bottom was 2011-2012, there won't be a huge crash anytime soon, even if prices dipped 10%, people would pile in again as they see value and drive the prices straight back up.
There isn't enough supply, prices will rise and the lack of supply is just one side, because there's a lack of people to actually build more supply after the last crash, all the builders are out of business, emigrated or doing something else.
Students or other lads have avoided the building trade like the plague.
Every month I'm looking more and more right, give it another few months and the whole I can't buy in SCD will be long gone, it'll be I can't buy in NCD, and eventually I can't buy in Blanch or Lucan.
Anyone who could have bought last year or this year and didn't will be kicking themselves this time next year, because these rises will be here for ten years at least.
Unless we somehow magically build a huge amount of houses inside the M50....but I can't see it happening!
There are a lack of people to get mortgages though too.
Prices are falling by the way.0 -
Prices are falling by the way.
No, no they're not, it's January, they fell in January last year too, and the same stuff was wheeled out, and what do you know, prices finished in 2013 13% higher than 2012.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/house-prices-show-slight-decline-in-january-1.1706797
“We wouldn’t read too much into this fall. January is traditionally a poor month for the housing market, and things won’t have been helped this year by the storm-like conditions across the country,” said Alan McQuaid. “Furthermore, the official CSO data are based on mortgage draw-downs and don’t give a true sense of what is going on in the property market because they exclude cash transactions. According to some estate agents, cash buyers account for around half of activity at the moment.”0 -
The Spider wrote: »No, no they're not, it's January, they fell in January last year too, and the same stuff was wheeled out, and what do you know, prices finished in 2013 13% higher than 2012.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/house-prices-show-slight-decline-in-january-1.1706797
“We wouldn’t read too much into this fall. January is traditionally a poor month for the housing market, and things won’t have been helped this year by the storm-like conditions across the country,” said Alan McQuaid. “Furthermore, the official CSO data are based on mortgage draw-downs and don’t give a true sense of what is going on in the property market because they exclude cash transactions. According to some estate agents, cash buyers account for around half of activity at the moment.”
Property prices fell last month. Prices are cheaper now than they were in December.
Here is the link:
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2014/#.UxC7XvldWSo0 -
your posts appear defensive, as if you are trying to convince some of us of the stability of the property market. Most purchases are cash buyers, mortgage lending is falling. Sounds like you are worried.
The fact is prices are falling, they fell last month.
It's all in peoples heads. If they fall again next month and the month after then the self-fulfilling prophesy will start and prices will go down again.
Irish Independant and Journal.ie know this and are hiding this news about property prices falling so as to not knock the self-fulfilling prophesy of the Irish sheep
No my posts convey confusion and bewilderment at peoples pure ignorance of the economic fundamentals that caused the last large property price drops in Dublin. These economic fundamentals are improving and have been since late 2011.
Prices fell last month because it's January. January is historically a slow month for transactions, not just in the property market but in a lot of markets. This is an undisputable fact. If prices fall marginally, it can be attributed to low volumes and hence a low sample data increasing the volatility of the results. Please stop using this as a reason to say prices are going to fall drastically.
No, its not a self fufilling prophecy and its not "all in peoples heads". If you think back to what triggered and maintained falling prices during 2008 - 2011. It was because of the economic fundamentals of unemployment, increased taxes and funding pressure on banks. If you believe that will happen again, on the scale it did in the near future, or the blowing out of LIBOR spreads was "all in peoples heads", well that says it all really.
If you think the Independent or Journal.ie are the main factors underlying the improved property market while ignoring all ive stated above then best of luck with that assertion0 -
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Barely Hedged wrote: »No my posts convey confusion and bewilderment at peoples pure ignorance of the economic fundamentals that caused the last large property price drops in Dublin. These economic fundamentals are improving and have been since late 2011.
Prices fell last month because it's January. January is historically a slow month for transactions, not just in the property market but in a lot of markets. This is an undisputable fact. If prices fall marginally, it can be attributed to low volumes and hence a low sample data increasing the volatility of the results. Please stop using this as a reason to say prices are going to fall drastically.
No, its not a self fufilling prophecy and its not "all in peoples heads". If you think back to what triggered and maintained falling prices during 2008 - 2011. It was because of the economic fundamentals of unemployment, increased taxes and funding pressure on banks. If you believe that will happen again, on the scale it did in the near future, or the blowing out of LIBOR spreads was "all in peoples heads", well that says it all really.
If you think the Independent or Journal.ie are the main factors underlying the improved property market while ignoring all ive stated above then best of luck with that assertion
Interesting, because all I said was that Prices fell last month and that it was fantastic news.
No idea where you are getting the idea I said prices are going to fall drastically.
Your post is very angry sounding and perhaps this is why you are getting mixed up.
Fact is prices fell last month.0 -
The Spider wrote: »I've said it before, I'll say it again, the bottom was 2011-2012, there won't be a huge crash anytime soon, even if prices dipped 10%, people would pile in again as they see value and drive the prices straight back up.
There isn't enough supply, prices will rise and the lack of supply is just one side, because there's a lack of people to actually build more supply after the last crash, all the builders are out of business, emigrated or doing something else.
Students or other lads have avoided the building trade like the plague.
Every month I'm looking more and more right, give it another few months and the whole I can't buy in SCD will be long gone, it'll be I can't buy in NCD, and eventually I can't buy in Blanch or Lucan.
Anyone who could have bought last year or this year and didn't will be kicking themselves this time next year, because these rises will be here for ten years at least.
Unless we somehow magically build a huge amount of houses inside the M50....but I can't see it happening!
Why not? If prices rise then more building will happen, if Irish property developers can't handle it I am sure a few companies might pop over. And remember the government is thinking of taxing un-used land. But prices won't continue up....
This "ten year" rises is lunatic, last year prices totally and absolutely depended on cash buyers. You totally ignore this. Last year cash was 54% of the market, and this year cash will have to be more of the market to lock in the 20% gains in Dublin even if they buy the same amount of houses. Next year cash will have to be 40% to lock in the prices you expect to see. Eventually you are apparently expecting cash to be 90% of the market ( by value). Or you expect a banking system which is not allowed to re-capitalise to loan more money, but it can't. Banks can't get more money from trackers, and nor can they get more capital by selling houses, so mortgages will bump along at €2B - again about 10% of the future market you are expecting to go back to 2006 levels.
So no, what will happen this year is a fall, cash buyers will wait it out, the fall will accelerate, cash buyers will panic and the dead cat bounce will resume its downward trajectory. Im thinking of buying mid next year at about 40% less than today,0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »No my posts convey confusion and bewilderment at peoples pure ignorance of the economic fundamentals that caused the last large property price drops in Dublin. These economic fundamentals are improving and have been since late 2011.
Prices fell last month because it's January. January is historically a slow month for transactions, not just in the property market but in a lot of markets. This is an undisputable fact. If prices fall marginally, it can be attributed to low volumes and hence a low sample data increasing the volatility of the results. Please stop using this as a reason to say prices are going to fall drastically.
No, its not a self fufilling prophecy and its not "all in peoples heads". If you think back to what triggered and maintained falling prices during 2008 - 2011. It was because of the economic fundamentals of unemployment, increased taxes and funding pressure on banks. If you believe that will happen again, on the scale it did in the near future, or the blowing out of LIBOR spreads was "all in peoples heads", well that says it all really.
If you think the Independent or Journal.ie are the main factors underlying the improved property market while ignoring all ive stated above then best of luck with that assertion
The economic fundamentals have hardly improved if you take into account the increasing price of owning a property - which reduces the after (property) tax take of the potential owners, and the reductions in allowances. Most sane people would therefore have expected prices to fall this last year - and in a normal market not backed up by cash - it would have fallen by 20-40% as, even given the tiny amount of transactions only about 46% would have been paid for by mortgages.
And mortgage owners are normal people, the very people who should be doing well from the economy, clearly not.
And all this before the mortgages of BTLers are finally called to account, and before interest rates rise. We are merely in the middle of a storm. Probably everybody who bought a house post 2004 is bankrupt, or will be.0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »I can understand your thinking about waiting for a larger amount of housing stock to come onto the market but prices fall again? What sort of percentage drops are you thinking will happen? We've seen a massive drop of 50% over the past 5/6 years. Nothing on that scale will happen again. If it drops, id say it might be no more than 5%, if even. If the house you can afford would be whats available in Tallaght, then you'd be looking at around €200k i take it. 5% of €200k - sure thats just €10k. Are you being penny smart and pound foolish by holding off and not looking?So it'll be a "soft landing"?Interesting, because all I said was that Prices fell last month and that it was fantastic news.
No idea where you are getting the idea I said prices are going to fall drastically.
Your post is very angry sounding and perhaps this is why you are getting mixed up.
Fact is prices fell last month.
I was more referring to the post above in response to an earlier question i asked you. Gaius C seems to be of the opinion that holding out will be somehow worth your while with the implication being that you'll save yourself a shed load due to large drops in price. This is pure bull as i have pointed out.
You added to this by inferring the Independent and Journal.ie are somehow responsible for price rises. I agree, dont believe everything you read but, come on in that respect.
I was not aggressive as stated above, merely bewildered and confused with the "soft landing" reply0 -
The economic fundamentals have improved since the rate at which they soured in the period from 2008 - 2010. Thats indisputable.Frank Lee Midere wrote: »take into account the increasing price of owning a property - which reduces the after (property) tax take of the potential owners, and the reductions in allowances.
This is a small annual outlay that occurs in a lot of countries. I dont see it affecting sales figures at all and prices only marginally.Frank Lee Midere wrote: »Most sane people would therefore have expected prices to fall this last year - and in a normal market not backed up by cash - it would have fallen by 20-40% as, even given the tiny amount of transactions only about 46% would have been paid for by mortgages.
Stable economic fundamentals for two years would lead to price falls of between 20% to 40% after falling 50% at a time when we were experiencing the worst rate of economic depression since the foundation of the republic???
Ive already referred to the fact that cash buyers in this fabled "normal market" make up between 30% to 50% of all sales. Theyre not going to disappear. They'll always be an integral part of a property market. The only issue here now is that theyre seeing value, which you think theres none as prices would fall between 20% and 40%Frank Lee Midere wrote: »And mortgage owners are normal people, the very people who should be doing well from the economy, clearly not.
Aint great, but its better than 2008 - 2010. The economy is now more stable => job stability and confidenceFrank Lee Midere wrote: »And all this before the mortgages of BTLers are finally called to account, and before interest rates rise. We are merely in the middle of a storm. Probably everybody who bought a house post 2004 is bankrupt, or will be.
We've been hearing this one for the past three/four years. Not saying youre wrong, but three/four years is a long time and something should have happened by now.
Im of the opinion with all the debt around that the central banks will be forced to normalise rates around 3% for an extended period to ween some of the debt out of the economy. This would not be burdonsome to most people0 -
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Frank Lee Midere wrote: »Why not? If prices rise then more building will happen, if Irish property developers can't handle it I am sure a few companies might pop over. And remember the government is thinking of taxing un-used land. But prices won't continue up....
This "ten year" rises is lunatic, last year prices totally and absolutely depended on cash buyers. You totally ignore this. Last year cash was 54% of the market, and this year cash will have to be more of the market to lock in the 20% gains in Dublin even if they buy the same amount of houses. Next year cash will have to be 40% to lock in the prices you expect to see. Eventually you are apparently expecting cash to be 90% of the market ( by value). Or you expect a banking system which is not allowed to re-capitalise to loan more money, but it can't. Banks can't get more money from trackers, and nor can they get more capital by selling houses, so mortgages will bump along at €2B - again about 10% of the future market you are expecting to go back to 2006 levels.
So no, what will happen this year is a fall, cash buyers will wait it out, the fall will accelerate, cash buyers will panic and the dead cat bounce will resume its downward trajectory. Im thinking of buying mid next year at about 40% less than today,
Ha ha, fantasy stuff, point number one, no one knows how much cash is out there, so saying the cash will run out is wishful thinking at best.
Point number two banks are giving mortgages, I had no problem getting one with aib, and I mean zero problems, they offered me way more than I needed.
Point number three banks will absolutely give mortgages to people with deposits.
For some reason people around here think the only way to get a deposit is saving, there's a lot of people in Dublin with shares in various companies that are cashing them in and using them as deposits, this Isbased on my own circle.
People who decided to stay at home and save as opposed to rent will have considerable deposits, they can probay put away close to three grand a month between two, that's over seventy grand in two years, banks will definitely give them a mortgage.
There's lots of people in Dublin and around the country who have cash reserves from either working for themselves, or in the black economy.
Don't underestimate the amount of cash a lot of farmers have.
You come at this from the point of view of a 9-5 worker in an average job with no benefits, if you're talking about Dublin most jobs in big companies have benefits from share saves to ltips.
The recovery is well under way , I'c you think there'll be a drop of 40% next year, you'll be sorely disappointed!0 -
Frank Lee Midere wrote: »So no, what will happen this year is a fall, cash buyers will wait it out, the fall will accelerate, cash buyers will panic and the dead cat bounce will resume its downward trajectory. Im thinking of buying mid next year at about 40% less than today,
That's a lot of predictions followed by a brave prediction backed up by an exact percentage and time frame. Fair play to you for nailing your cards to the mast and I hope you're going to be here to gloat when you come up trumps.
You obviously have a head for markets and economics. I presume you bought lots of property before the boom and sold it in and around 2006 and 2007 with that sort of ability and insight?0 -
Just a quick FYI on how share options work: employers like the web company I work for do not hand out tens of thousands of shares so employees can cash them in and go bananas using them as deposits for houses or whatever. That would defeat the purpose of share options in the first place as a means to retain long serving employees because people would simply fcuk off and leave as soon as they cashed in their shares.
You are typically locked in to a contract that only allows you to cash in a very small fraction of their value in a given year. In that sense, all share options are good for is supplementing your mortgage payments (assuming the share price doesn’t tank in another repeat of the dotcom crash), and they are actually a hindrance to getting a mortgage seeing as banks tend not to count them as part of your core income.
I think too many people are backing up their own anecdotal experience of how themselves and their mates are doing, and assuming that represents the wider economy. You're mates down the pub got mortgages this year, fantastic. Now explain why mortgage lending is down on last year for the rest of the country?
My prediction is house prices may fall another 5% when the proportion of cash buyers drops down to that of a normal property market, and building resumes again. I wouldn’t expect them to rise much more than 10% till the end of the decade.0 -
I read the Times and Indo everyday and I think that is a huge exaggeration.
The monthly increases from the CSO have been given the same standard attention as the mild decrease yesterday.
I can't speak for thejournal though as I would be less familar with it.
No exaggeration there Noodler. Lima gave you the Indo's take on things, the word fall was mentioned not in the headline but many paragraphs down in the story, all thanks to Charlie Weston. They had the words "soaring" and "surging" in their previous headlines on CSO price rises.
The Irish Times who own myhome.ie never showed the story on their main page under the Business sub-heading. You had to click Business and then click another sub page to reach the story, pathetic on their part despite it being the latest story of the day. The only consistency from them is their reporting on the decline in mortgage lending, thats it.0 -
Talk of economic recovery here by a few posters, have you read into the CSO stats at all?
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/latestheadlinefigures/qnhs_q42013.pdf
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-people-employed-in-ireland-grows-3-3-1.1706802
To the trained eye, most of the newly created posts are not high paying jobs. And yes, there was a "re-adjustment" in the Agriculture figures which accounts for nearly half of the 61,000 increase, is that really an increase? It's damn suspicious.CSO wrote:Employment increased in ten of the fourteen economic sectors (excludingNot stated) over the year and fell in four.
The largest rates of increase were recorded in the Agriculture, forestry and fishing (+29.8% or 26,800), the
Accommodation and food service activities (+14.7% or 17,400) and the Professional, scientific and technical
activities(+12.7% or 13,000) sectors. In the case of theAgriculture, forestry and fishing sector it can be noted that
estimates of employment in this sector have shown to be sensitive to sample changes over time. Given the
introduction of the sample based on the 2011 Census of Population as outlined in the note on the front page of this
release, particular caution is warranted in the interpretation of the trend in this sector at this time. See tables 2a, 2b
and figure 2.
The four sectors in which annual declines were recorded were the Financial, insurance and real estate activities
(-5.6% or -5,700), Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles(-1.1% or -3,000), Public
administration and defence; compulsory social security (-1.0% or -1,000) and Information and communication
(-0.8% or -600) sectors. See tables 2a, 2b and figure 20 -
The Spider wrote: »Ha ha, fantasy stuff, point number one, no one knows how much cash is out there, so saying the cash will run out is wishful thinking at best.........
You are forgetting one important thing. Cash buyers will not buy when prices are falling, you have heard of the expression, "why catch a falling knife?" Only a fool will buy in cash when there is a *slight* certainty that the asset can be bought for cheaper next month. As stated by myself this turnaround has been happening since about Sept and proved for Jan '14.
That rule applied during the recession years of constant falling prices until 2012 when cash buyers started to pile in. Now they have news that prices fell in Jan 2014, will they still keep buying? Upon this weeks news, I wouldn't if I was in their shoes even if there was still high demand for rents.0 -
Where are you getting this "fact" that house prices are falling?The fact is prices are falling, they fell last month.
It's all in peoples heads. If they fall again next month and the month after then the self-fulfilling prophesy will start and prices will go down again.
Irish Independant and Journal.ie know this and are hiding this news about property prices falling so as to not knock the self-fulfilling prophesy of the Irish sheep
The fact is that in January 2014, according to CSO mortgage drawdowns fell by 0.7%. That is all you can say. You have excluded cash buyers and you cannot even say that the properties sold in December were the same type as in January. Where is the evidence that property prices are falling?0 -
I will trust CSO figures about prices going down as much as CSO figures about prices going up
If someones house is worth less but they are not in NE because they've chipped at the mortgage it still means they paid money for it.
If house was bought at 200k and only worth 160 but they've paid off 40k they have still lost 40k.
Mortgage lending is down:
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/financial-services/mortgage-lending-down-last-year-1.1702778
Most of the buyers are cash buyers.
I suppose I am in a 'sweet spot' being early 30's and having mortgage approval for a reasonable house in Dublin (excl. SCD (apart from Tallaght etc.) and D6, d# etc.) but I like a lot of others are choosing to wait until either decent stock becomes available or prices fall again, like they are now.
The point I was actually making was that he now has 14 years of paying €1000 per month as opposed to €1450 pm (i was talking to him last night and the house across the road is renting currently for 1450, not 1350 as i said earlier) for the same house if he was renting, so is better off (if he was renting the exact same house). But if he were to go looking for the mortgage now, he would never get that mortgage. So he is better off having bought the house right now by €450 pm. And in 14 years if rents dont go up, he will be better off by €1450 pm.
Now it could be argued that he only needed a 3 bed house when he had his kids, which was 3 years into the mortgage, and they could have got away with renting a room in a house share for less than the mortgage was then.
Some people are happy to be married and rent, but when you have kids that all changes. You dont think it ever will, but by god when the first child comes, your whole outlook on renting vs buying changes.
But back to the point. MY friend was quite happy renting and it served its purpose. Then he had a choice to buy and he did. That works out better for him family and financially than renting, now and probably in the future. Had he not got the mortgage when he did he would not be able to get one now, so would not have the choice and renting would have to do as it would be the only option for him. Other people dont need mortgages and renting might even suit them better. There is a huge mix of people around and one size doesnt fit all.
Some people have been taking advantage of the market the last two or three years (everyone, including myself, was afraid to buy more than 3 years ago, so nobody did) and are now seeing that they may indeed have made the right decision. Equally a lot of people decided to wait a bit longer and at the moment look to have made the wrong decision, though they are hoping that extending that wait, things will reverse again and they will be back in the game. I think the biggest gamble here would be to wait, but you never know, they could be the ones laughing in a few years. But i doubt the people who bought in the last few years took much of a gamble in the long run.0 -
dinnyirwin wrote: »The point I was actually making was that he now has 14 years of paying €1000 per month as opposed to €1450 pm (i was talking to him last night and the house across the road is renting currently for 1450, not 1350 as i said earlier) for the same house if he was renting, so is better off (if he was renting the exact same house). But if he were to go looking for the mortgage now, he would never get that mortgage. So he is better off having bought the house right now by €450 pm. And in 14 years if rents dont go up, he will be better off by €1450 pm.
Now it could be argued that he only needed a 3 bed house when he had his kids, which was 3 years into the mortgage, and they could have got away with renting a room in a house share for less than the mortgage was then.
Some people are happy to be married and rent, but when you have kids that all changes. You dont think it ever will, but by god when the first child comes, your whole outlook on renting vs buying changes.
But back to the point. MY friend was quite happy renting and it served its purpose. Then he had a choice to buy and he did. That works out better for him family and financially than renting, now and probably in the future. Had he not got the mortgage when he did he would not be able to get one now, so would not have the choice and renting would have to do as it would be the only option for him. Other people dont need mortgages and renting might even suit them better. There is a huge mix of people around and one size doesnt fit all.
Some people have been taking advantage of the market the last two or three years (everyone, including myself, was afraid to buy more than 3 years ago, so nobody did) and are now seeing that they may indeed have made the right decision. Equally a lot of people decided to wait a bit longer and at the moment look to have made the wrong decision, though they are hoping that extending that wait, things will reverse again and they will be back in the game. I think the biggest gamble here would be to wait, but you never know, they could be the ones laughing in a few years. But i doubt the people who bought in the last few years took much of a gamble in the long run.
I do get your point, it's true that there are so many types of people in different life stages. it's a pity that people have to rush in to buying just because they dont want to be priced out of the market though. If we had stable prices then everyone (well owner-occupiers) would be happier. but it seems it's all geared towards keeping investors happy and making people in NE happier. There are a huge number of younger people affected by prices too and that number will grow0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »No my posts convey confusion and bewilderment at peoples purofignorance of the economic fundamentals that caused the last large property price drops in Dublin. These economic fundamentals are improving and have been since late 2011.
Prices fell last month because it's January. January is historically a slow month for transactions, not just in the property market but in a lot of markets. This is an undisputable fact. If prices fall marginally, it can be attributed to low volumes and hence a low sample data increasing the volatility of the results. Please stop using this as a reason to say prices are going to fall drastically.
No, its not a self fufilling prophecy and its not "all in peoples heads". If you think back to what triggered and maintained falling prices during 2008 - 2011. It was because of the economic fundamentals of unemployment, increased taxes and funding pressure on banks. If you believe that will happen again, on the scale it did in the near future, or the blowing out of LIBOR spreads was "all in peoples heads", well that says it all really.
If you think the Independent or Journal.ie are the main factors underlying the improved property market while ignoring all ive stated above then best of luck with that assertion
So the asset price bubble bust was caused by the economic conditions and not the fact that the assets were over-valued? Thus implying that Lehman's and all those other bogeymen are to blame for the property crash.
Interesting thesis...
For starters, price falls began in 2006/2007 when economic indicators were still largely positive and the global economic market was largely stable.0 -
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So the asset price bubble bust was caused by the economic conditions and not the fact that the assets were over-valued? Thus implying that Lehman's and all those other bogeymen are to blame for the property crash.
Interesting thesis...
For starters, price falls began in 2006/2007 when economic indicators were still largely positive and the global economic market was largely stable.
They might have been over valued but not by the 50% they reduced by.
If you think that house prices are not linked to good economic fundamentals, then youre living in cuckoo land. Lehmans caused LIBOR spreads to widen sharply, squeezing funding for large investment and Irish banks. This was just one of the fundamentals that directly impacted Irish property prices - not the only one which your post tries to paint it as.
Id like to see the stats for those house price falls in 2006/2007. If it was late 2007, short term funding was being squeezed for banks thus impacting their ability to lend explaining some of it.0 -
Talk of economic recovery here by a few posters, have you read into the CSO stats at all?
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/latestheadlinefigures/qnhs_q42013.pdf
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/number-of-people-employed-in-ireland-grows-3-3-1.1706802
To the trained eye, most of the newly created posts are not high paying jobs. And yes, there was a "re-adjustment" in the Agriculture figures which accounts for nearly half of the 61,000 increase, is that really an increase? It's damn suspicious.
Im saying the economic stats will not worsen at the rate they did from 2008 - 2010. The rate at which they did, in particular the unemployment rate, is quite staggering. House prices are directly correlated to stats such as unemployment rates. Im saying that its impossible to see this same rate being repeated so i cant see how house prices will repeat the rates of decrease we saw during 2008 - 2011.
To the trained eye, this is what ive been saying - not that the economic stats are astounding.0 -
Where are you getting this "fact" that house prices are falling?
The fact is that in January 2014, according to CSO mortgage drawdowns fell by 0.7%. That is all you can say. You have excluded cash buyers and you cannot even say that the properties sold in December were the same type as in January. Where is the evidence that property prices are falling?
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2014/#.UxN2DecgGK0
"Residential property prices fell by 0.7% in the month of January"
"In Dublin residential property prices fell by 1.3% in January"0 -
Barely Hedged wrote: »Im saying the economic stats will not worsen at the rate they did from 2008 - 2010. The rate at which they did, in particular the unemployment rate, is quite staggering. House prices are directly correlated to stats such as unemployment rates. Im saying that its impossible to see this same rate being repeated so i cant see how house prices will repeat the rates of decrease we saw during 2008 - 2011.
To the trained eye, this is what ive been saying - not that the economic stats are astounding.
You seem very sure on that....lets hope shots don't start ringing out in Crimea over the next few days or you could be eating your words pretty soon0 -
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjanuary2014/#.UxN2DecgGK0
"Residential property prices fell by 0.7% in the month of January"
"In Dublin residential property prices fell by 1.3% in January"
You need to read the notes. It is not a "fact" as you seem to believe.0 -
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I think Colm McCarthy reads the economic tea leaves quite well in today's Sindo!
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colm-mccarthy/colm-mccarthy-wishful-thinking-on-heroic-scale-to-believe-weve-reason-to-celebrate-30054144.htmlThis country now has a gross State debt equal roughly to 150 per cent of its annual national income, a figure which will continue to grow until the deficit is brought under control. Unemployment is at around 12 per cent of the labour force; the household sector has debts around double the annual level of household income. Tens of thousands of mortgage holders carry debts which they cannot realistically expect to repay. A new generation sees emigration as the best career option. The banking system continues to contract with mortgage lending for 2013 below the modest level of the previous year. There has been no proper banking inquiry, six years after the crisis began to emerge. The improving employment figures are not a sign of a broad-based economic recovery and the country remains locked in a dysfunctional European common currency area which has yet to show a decisive commitment to reform. It is wishful thinking on a heroic scale to pretend that the Irish economy is headed for the sunny uplands.0 -
He bangs the Banking Inquiry drum regularly in fairness to him.
Other points of note:
1) Half of the 60,000 jobs increase announced in the QNHS last week came from farming (a massive proportional increase) despite their being little to no change in farming output. The CSO's revised methodology is being blamed.
2) Tax decreases i.e. the increase in the tax bands from 32,800 are hardly possible in such a deficit running situation and would have to be macthed by some decrease in expenditure or other tax increases.
3) Talks of the Government meddling in the private sector with regards pay increases is silly given the need for Ireland to become more competitive. The Government should focus on reducing costs in utilities and the like in order to enable businesses to grow.0 -
Colm agrees with my above post on the "recovery" in employment
Unfortunately, the figures for employment in agriculture have been distorted by methodology changes and they are making the overall picture look better than it really is. Over the last two years total employment has grown by just under 60,000. But 37,000 of this increase is supposed to have occurred in farming. Farm output has changed little over that period but on-farm employment appears to have grown by no less than 46 per cent. Non-farm employment over the last two years has performed as indicated in the accompanying table below.
Article worth a read on the reality, Its stagnation rather than a recovery.0 -
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You seem very sure on that....lets hope shots don't start ringing out in Crimea over the next few days or you could be eating your words pretty soon
For it to be repeated you'd be talking about about the Americans getting involved militarily? Do you really think that is going to happen - Yes or No? Sure Ukraine is not even in NATO.
There are numerous reasons i could go into why Putin wont get involved in moving beyond the Crimean boundaries into Eastern Ukraine. Hes protecting his military interests in that region and flexing his muscles with the Nationalists.
For the global financial crisis to be repeated it will have to be issues within Western countries. What exposure do Western countries even have to Ukraine? The only issue will be over Soc Gen and one or two other French and German banks who have invested in Eastern Europe. Even civil war in Ukraine wouldnt matter a toss to Europe. The only impact would be gas and Russia will just re-route output through the exisiting pipelines in Turkey, Poland and Finland.
Remember all the hulla-ballo about Syria and Georgia. What impact did they have on us?0
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