Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Dublin (and everywhere) house prices FALL in January 2014

Options
124678

Comments

  • Options
    #92
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    jay0109 wrote: »
    I think Colm McCarthy reads the economic tea leaves quite well in today's Sindo!
    http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colm-mccarthy/colm-mccarthy-wishful-thinking-on-heroic-scale-to-believe-weve-reason-to-celebrate-30054144.html

    Colm McCarthy and Sunday Independent - enough said.


  • Options
    #93
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    moxin wrote: »
    Colm agrees with my above post on the "recovery" in employment :)



    Article worth a read on the reality, Its stagnation rather than a recovery.

    Im of the opinion that the same price decreases from 2008 - 2010 wont be repeated. Even stagnation wouldnt cause these price decreases


  • Options
    #94
    noodler
    Registered Users Posts: 26,396 ✭✭✭✭noodler


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Colm McCarthy and Sunday Independent - enough said.

    Explain that please?

    Whatever your opinion of the Sindo, what would make you dismiss McCarthy's opinion so brazenly?

    There is very little in that article which isn't factual.


  • Options
    #95
    The Spider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    noodler wrote: »
    Explain that please?

    Whatever your opinion of the Sindo, what would make you dismiss McCarthy's opinion so brazenly?

    There is very little in that article which isn't factual.

    Ha typical nonsense, when the sindo supports your agenda you're all for it, when it doesn't it's a rag, some of you lads are unreal, if the pope came out and said property was going to drop, you'd all be off to mass on Sunday as he's infallible.


  • Options
    #96
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    noodler wrote: »
    Explain that please?

    Whatever your opinion of the Sindo, what would make you dismiss McCarthy's opinion so brazenly?

    There is very little in that article which isn't factual.

    Man forges career from forecasting doom and gloom for the past 15 - 20 years and surprise, surprise forecasts doom and gloom again.

    Statistically correct yes, but are his observations about debt being unsustainable still valid at least 6 years into a debt problem or does it become less and less relevant as does debt through time


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #97
    moxin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,203 ✭✭✭moxin


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Colm McCarthy and Sunday Independent - enough said.
    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Im of the opinion that the same price decreases from 2008 - 2010 wont be repeated. Even stagnation wouldnt cause these price decreases
    The Spider wrote:
    Ha typical nonsense, when the sindo supports your agenda you're all for it, when it doesn't it's a rag, some of you lads are unreal, if the pope came out and said property was going to drop, you'd all be off to mass on Sunday as he's infallible.

    Colm McCarthy is not a bank paid\estate agent economist, the guy is a real independent economist with credentials.

    Why his article is in the Sindo, heaven knows. The Sindo articles written by their own columnists are rightly criticised as fantasy, Colm does not work directly for the Sindo. He works for the UCD of economics http://www.ucd.ie/economics/staff/mrcolmmccarthy/

    Barely Hedged, the prices will decrease as they are overpriced, stagnation or not.


  • Options
    #98
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    moxin wrote: »
    Colm McCarthy is not a bank paid\estate agent economist, the guy is a real independent economist with credentials.

    Why his article is in the Sindo, heaven knows. The Sindo articles written by their own columnists are rightly criticised as fantasy, Colm does not work directly for the Sindo. He works for the UCD of economics http://www.ucd.ie/economics/staff/mrcolmmccarthy/

    Barely Hedged, the prices will decrease as they are overpriced, stagnation or not.

    Do you think he does all his media appearences and columns for free. The man has made a tidy nest egg from preaching to people too willing to listen to him that the sky is falling in for years. Of course he was correct on the GFC but you become less and less relevant if thats all you spout for 15 - 20 years.

    At the same rate as 2008 - 2010?


  • Options
    #99
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Colm McCarthy - enough said.

    One of the few credible economists in this country. Uses facts to expose the vested interests


  • Options
    #100
    moxin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,203 ✭✭✭moxin


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Do you think he does all his media appearences and columns for free. The man has made a tidy nest egg from preaching to people too willing to listen to him that the sky is falling in for years. Of course he was correct on the GFC but you become less and less relevant if thats all you spout for 15 - 20 years.

    At the same rate as 2008 - 2010?

    He was correct just like Morgan Kelly and was ridiculed at the time for the truth. Why this article is important is that the man has form on calling it right.

    2008 to 2010 was a serious crash, no I don't think we're heading for a serious fall like that.


  • Options
    #101
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    moxin wrote: »
    He was correct just like Morgan Kelly and was ridiculed at the time for the truth. Why this article is important is that the man has form on calling it right.

    2008 to 2010 was a serious crash, no I don't think we're heading for a serious fall like that.

    Ive plenty of time for Morgan Kelly and i was in agreement with his articles in late 2006 and early 2007. They were very interesting and well researched.

    I dont agree with as you say "calling it right". He's been constantly negative for 15-20 years. If youre negative for that long, at some stage youre bound to be correct. Remember also, thats hes an economist - not a market practioneer and has never been. A very distinct difference.

    Well, then were in agreement so. In this case if you find a property, why not buy if youre not expecting huge price decreases?


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #102
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    Villa05 wrote: »
    One of the few credible economists in this country. Uses facts to expose the vested interests

    Facts that are in the public domain, distributed through the free to access environment of the internet by a government agency? Top detective work by him.


  • Options
    #103
    The Spider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,273 ✭✭✭The Spider


    Villa05 wrote: »
    One of the few credible economists in this country. Uses facts to expose the vested interests

    Oh those vested interests, they regularly meet in a castle in the mountains and discuss their sinister plot to ramp up property, whilst swirling brandy and laughing as lightening crackles outside the window, if only we coud somehow stop them maybe McCarthy's our man, he can halt this nefarious plot using his powers of economics!!


    Newsflash, you're a vested interest, I'm a vested interest as far as property is concerned everyone is a vested interest, time to retire this term, as it's the market at work not a secret cabal of shadowy businessmen.


  • Options
    #104
    moxin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,203 ✭✭✭moxin


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Ive plenty of time for Morgan Kelly and i was in agreement with his articles in late 2006 and early 2007. They were very interesting and well researched.

    I dont agree with as you say "calling it right". He's been constantly negative for 15-20 years. If youre negative for that long, at some stage youre bound to be correct. Remember also, thats hes an economist - not a market practioneer and has never been. A very distinct difference.

    Well, then were in agreement so. In this case if you find a property, why not buy if youre not expecting huge price decreases?

    Being correct is not negative, its being accurate in reality.

    You can buy if you want, what we're doing here is commenting on the market and the reasons behind any possible fall, these reasons have been outlined already. (cash buyers, decline mortgage credit and demographics of the FTB's)


  • Options
    #105
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    moxin wrote: »
    Being correct is not negative, its being accurate in reality.

    You can buy if you want, what we're doing here is commenting on the market and the reasons behind any possible fall, these reasons have been outlined already. (cash buyers, decline mortgage credit and demographics of the FTB's)

    So he was correct for 15 - 20 years? An economist predicts that economic performance is cyclical is what youre saying?

    I just think its foolish to think that way about a long term investment such as property. So what if it decreases, say for example, by 5-10% in two years. In all likelihood you'll have the place for 20 years so why does it matter? The fact is that it doesnt - it only matters if you think the value of your investment will never recoup its initial capital outlay, even considering inflation


  • Options
    #106
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    How many posts played the man rather than the points he was making.
    If he, is wrong argue the points why ?


  • Options
    #107
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    Villa05 wrote: »
    How many posts played the man rather than the points he was making.
    If he, is wrong argue the points why ?

    Man cant read posts - man deduces codswallop statement to make him feel warm and fuzzy inside
    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Man forges career from forecasting doom and gloom for the past 15 - 20 years and surprise, surprise forecasts doom and gloom again.

    Statistically correct yes, but are his observations about debt being unsustainable still valid at least 6 years into a debt problem or does it become less and less relevant as does debt through time


  • Options
    #108
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,618 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Man cant read posts - man deduces codswallop statement to make him feel warm and fuzzy inside
    Michael noonan said the debt was unsustainable in 2012. It continues to grow.
    Have you access to better data than noonan?


  • Options
    #109
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    Villa05 wrote: »
    Michael noonan said the debt was unsustainable in 2012. It continues to grow.
    Have you access to better data than noonan?

    Was this during negotiations with the ECB to reduce Irelands debt burden by any chance because im pretty sure during any negotiation process you try to exaggerate your bargaining position?


  • Options
    #110
    noodler
    Registered Users Posts: 26,396 ✭✭✭✭noodler


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Man forges career from forecasting doom and gloom for the past 15 - 20 years and surprise, surprise forecasts doom and gloom again.

    Statistically correct yes, but are his observations about debt being unsustainable still valid at least 6 years into a debt problem or does it become less and less relevant as does debt through time
    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    So he was correct for 15 - 20 years? An economist predicts that economic performance is cyclical is what youre saying?

    I just think its foolish to think that way about a long term investment such as property. So what if it decreases, say for example, by 5-10% in two years. In all likelihood you'll have the place for 20 years so why does it matter? The fact is that it doesnt - it only matters if you think the value of your investment will never recoup its initial capital outlay, even considering inflation


    15-20 Years?

    Are you sure you actually know who Colm McCarthy is?

    He was head of An Bord Snip in the 80s and again a few years ago if that is what you were referring to, but they were not forecasting reports.

    I'd have to ask you for some specific detail about your 15-20 years point as it doesn't make any sense.


  • Options
    #111
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    noodler wrote: »
    15-20 Years?

    Are you sure you actually know who Colm McCarthy is?

    He was head of An Bord Snip in the 80s and again a few years ago if that is what you were referring to, but they were not forecasting reports.

    I'd have to ask you for some specific detail about your 15-20 years point as it doesn't make any sense.

    No, im not referring to his days advising the government of what and where they should cut expenditure just his general outlook. Unfortunately i dont have access to previous articles in The Times etc


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #112
    drumswan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,592 ✭✭✭drumswan


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Was this during negotiations with the ECB to reduce Irelands debt burden by any chance because im pretty sure during any negotiation process you try to exaggerate your bargaining position?

    We owe 180 billion and are running a deficit of about 13 billion. It doesnt take a genius to work out that its unsustainable. It would appear some mass collective head-in-the-sand mentality has taken root.


  • Options
    #113
    noodler
    Registered Users Posts: 26,396 ✭✭✭✭noodler


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    No, im not referring to his days advising the government of what and where they should cut expenditure just his general outlook. Unfortunately i dont have access to previous articles in The Times etc


    Are you actually criticising his articles because they are not positive enough for you then?


  • Options
    #114
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    drumswan wrote: »
    We owe 180 billion and are running a deficit of about 13 billion. It doesnt take a genius to work out that its unsustainable. It would appear some mass collective head-in-the-sand mentality has taken root.

    Including bank debt which is being chipped away at by NAMA? Take that out and what have you got?

    Its been unsustainable for 6 years and 6 years has passed. Funny that.

    It takes time to work it down, which is currently being done. Theres a difference between unsuitability and not being bothered to pay something back because it doesnt suit.


  • Options
    #115
    drumswan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,592 ✭✭✭drumswan


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    It takes time to work it down, which is currently being done.
    Our debt is increasing, not falling.


  • Options
    #116
    noodler
    Registered Users Posts: 26,396 ✭✭✭✭noodler


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Including bank debt which is being chipped away at by NAMA? Take that out and what have you got?

    Its been unsustainable for 6 years and 6 years has passed. Funny that.

    It takes time to work it down, which is currently being done. Theres a difference between unsuitability and not being bothered to pay something back because it doesnt suit.

    NAMA liabilities to the domestic banks are not included on any official definition of Ireland's national debt.

    Our debt is eating almost 10bn euros a year in interest payments.

    If growth does fail to materialise, it is a real possibility that it could be considered unsustainable.


  • Options
    #117
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    noodler wrote: »
    NAMA liabilities to the domestic banks are not included on any official definition of Ireland's national debt.

    Our debt is eating almost 10bn euros a year in interest payments.

    If growth does fail to materialise, it is a real possibility that it could be considered unsustainable.

    Numbers in billions

    Direct Government Debt
    Long Term Debt Securities Government 89.9
    Short Term Debt Securities Government 1.9
    Total 91.8

    Covered debts of Irish banks
    ELG Scheme 111
    Deposit Guarantee Scheme 74.1
    Promissory Notes 30.9
    Nama Bonds 28.7
    ELA, net of Promissory Notes 34.6
    Total 279.3

    Scale of Irish national debt 371.1


  • Options
    #118
    Barely Hedged
    Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Barely Hedged


    drumswan wrote: »
    Our debt is increasing, not falling.

    Yes i think around 40% last year due to the immediate liquidation of IBRC. A one off charge that should be unwound with time


  • Options
    #119
    noodler
    Registered Users Posts: 26,396 ✭✭✭✭noodler


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Numbers in billions

    Direct Government Debt
    Long Term Debt Securities Government 89.9
    Short Term Debt Securities Government 1.9
    Total 91.8

    Covered debts of Irish banks
    ELG Scheme 111
    Deposit Guarantee Scheme 74.1
    Promissory Notes 30.9
    Nama Bonds 28.7
    ELA, net of Promissory Notes 34.6
    Total 279.3

    Scale of Irish national debt 371.1

    Again, there is no official definition of Ireland's debt which includes the NAMA bonds. (Most of those figurs are out of date at this stage as well.)



    Therefore, you need to add them on seperately.

    In a previous post you said you would subtract them which gave the imprerssion you thought they were already included but this is not the case.


  • Options
    #120
    drumswan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,592 ✭✭✭drumswan


    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/government-debt-to-gdp


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #121
    drumswan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,592 ✭✭✭drumswan


    Barely Hedged wrote: »
    Numbers in billions

    Direct Government Debt
    Long Term Debt Securities Government 89.9
    Short Term Debt Securities Government 1.9
    Total 91.8

    Covered debts of Irish banks
    ELG Scheme 111
    Deposit Guarantee Scheme 74.1
    Promissory Notes 30.9
    Nama Bonds 28.7
    ELA, net of Promissory Notes 34.6
    Total 279.3

    Scale of Irish national debt 371.1

    Is this an argument for sustainability?


Advertisement