Pushed out of the market

Jaybor

i would love to let long term more than anything.
But at the moment a lease means sfa to a tenant.
And when they decide to break it, there is nothing I can do that is worthwhile.
When a 5 year lease means 5 years for both sides and is enforceable on both sides, then by all means make 5 year leases standard.
But at the moment the tenant can back out of a lease whenever they feel like it. Whereas the LL cant.

Jaybor

who_ru wrote: »

if people are stupid enough to offer 15k above asking for a first bid let them at it. that is total desperation at work there.

So what would you say that house is worth, not having seen it or anything to enable you to make an informed decision.

Marchbride

Jaybor wrote: »

So what would you say that house is worth, not having seen it or anything to enable you to make an informed decision.

The house couldn't shift for 30k less last August.. Houses around the area sold very recently for 30-40k less and some were bigger houses!! I honestly don't know what to make of this madness. I would have thought last November when I started looking for a house that 285k would get us a fine sized house in a 'decent' area..... Not looking likely now!!

Jaybor

Marchbride wrote: »

The house couldn't shift for 30k less last August.. Houses around the area sold very recently for 30-40k less and some were bigger houses!! I honestly don't know what to make of this madness. I would have thought last November when I started looking for a house that 285k would get us a fine sized house in a 'decent' area..... Not looking likely now!!

As in every cycle there is a very bad time to buy and a very good time to buy. Everything else falls in the range in between.
The very bad time was about 7 or 8 years ago. I think we will find that the very good time was a couple of years ago. I think we might be slightly past that stage now, but you never know.

A lot of people are betting that property prices will fall again. If they lose that bet they probably will be renting for the rest of their lives - unless they are in their 20s or early 30s now and will be ready to strike when the next low point comes in the next decade. Any older and they probably wont be getting a mortgage at that point. Another low point will come, but when is anybodies guess. Im betting its a long way away now.

gaius c

Jaybor wrote: »

As in every cycle there is a very bad time to buy and a very good time to buy. Everything else falls in the range in between.
The very bad time was about 7 or 8 years ago. I think we will find that the very good time was a couple of years ago. I think we might be slightly past that stage now, but you never know.

A lot of people are betting that property prices will fall again. If they lose that bet they probably will be renting for the rest of their lives - unless they are in their 20s or early 30s now and will be ready to strike when the next low point comes in the next decade. Any older and they probably wont be getting a mortgage at that point. Another low point will come, but when is anybodies guess. Im betting its a long way away now.

You might be too young to remember it but there was a time when house prices didn't swing as wildly as Irish oil exploration shares.

delthedriver

Jaybor wrote: »

i would love to let long term more than anything.
But at the moment a lease means sfa to a tenant.
And when they decide to break it, there is nothing I can do that is worthwhile.
When a 5 year lease means 5 years for both sides and is enforceable on both sides, then by all means make 5 year leases standard.
But at the moment the tenant can back out of a lease whenever they feel like it. Whereas the LL cant.

Very True! The odds are stacked against the landlord ironically. A tenant can potentially leave the premises, having already trashed the place, leave rents unpaid . Yes there is the PRTB to settle disputes, however recovering fro the tenant is easier said than done.


One cannot sue a man of straw

MouseTail

gaius c wrote: »

You might be too young to remember it but there was a time when house prices didn't swing as wildly as Irish oil exploration shares.

I'm not, but I also recall that as being a closed low skilled economy, low wages, women absent from the workforce, poor progression to third level education. I dont think you can compare our socio economy, and therefore house price drivers, now to anytime pre mid 90s. Its a different country.

johnnyskeleton

who_ru wrote: »

if people are stupid enough to offer 15k above asking for a first bid let them at it. that is total desperation at work there.

Or a bold move to secure the property. For example:

Asking price €200k
My Budget €210-230k but would ideally like to keep it below the asking or as low as possible.
Your Budget €215k and also wouldn't mind keeping it low but expect it to sell for that price.

You bid €185k and I bid up in increments of €5k until you bid €215k, I bid €220k and I get the house because you can't afford to go any higher.

On the other hand, you bid €215k and I believe that you have massive reserves behind you and will go up far beyond my budget so I don't bid again.

Classic bluff / all-in strategy I suppose, but it seems to work in house bidding.

delthedriver

Jaybor wrote: »

As in every cycle there is a very bad time to buy and a very good time to buy. Everything else falls in the range in between.
The very bad time was about 7 or 8 years ago. I think we will find that the very good time was a couple of years ago. I think we might be slightly past that stage now, but you never know.

A lot of people are betting that property prices will fall again. If they lose that bet they probably will be renting for the rest of their lives - unless they are in their 20s or early 30s now and will be ready to strike when the next low point comes in the next decade. Any older and they probably wont be getting a mortgage at that point. Another low point will come, but when is anybodies guess. Im betting its a long way away now.

I do not see prices falling again in Dublin. We already see the pent up demand for properties and the increases in prices and rents.


This will spread to other large urban areas , already it has spread to Commuter Counties like Wicklow, Kildare etc.


Further afield, property in Limerick is moving, demand for rental property is on the increase. Indeed an acquaintance advertised her apartment to let on Daft. A couple of hundred hits and 24hrs later the apartment was let at a higher rent than originally anticipated.


People need to get off the fence, if they are ready to buy get on with it.

Villa05

MouseTail wrote: »

I'm not, but I also recall that as being a closed low skilled economy, low wages, women absent from the workforce, poor progression to third level education. I dont think you can compare our socio economy, and therefore house price drivers, now to anytime pre mid 90s. Its a different country.

So high skilled economy
Higher wages and more family members at work
Better education

yet we are the most indebted society in the world. What could possibly be wrong?

yankinlk

Jaybor wrote: »

As in every cycle there is a very bad time to buy and a very good time to buy. Everything else falls in the range in between.
The very bad time was about 7 or 8 years ago. I think we will find that the very good time was a couple of years ago. I think we might be slightly past that stage now, but you never know.

my dad sold houses in the states. he always said, seven years up, seven years down (or sideways).

ezra_pound

gaius c wrote: »

Really?
You do realise that you need 200% increases to cancel out 50% drops?

No you don't.

HeidiHeidi

ezra_pound wrote: »

No you don't.

Why do people do this? It's like provocation into a tit for tat row - I know the answer but you don't. Why not just give/explain the answer if you know it?

You need 100% increase to cancel out a 50% drop. Unless you keep working from the initial valuation which would make no sense.

100K becomes 50K - a 50% drop.

In order to become 100K again 50K needs to double - a 100% increase (I suspect this is where the initial poster got confused, calling a doubling 200%).

That's my take on it anyway, the poster was making the point that when the value is down you need to climb back more RELATIVELY to get to where you started from.

If I'm wrong, I'd appreciate someone actually explaining it properly .

Fkall

gaius c wrote: »

You might be too young to remember it but there was a time when house prices didn't swing as wildly as Irish oil exploration shares.

Yes, prior to 2006 house prices only ever went up

Potatoeman

Jaybor wrote: »

i would love to let long term more than anything.
But at the moment a lease means sfa to a tenant.
And when they decide to break it, there is nothing I can do that is worthwhile.
When a 5 year lease means 5 years for both sides and is enforceable on both sides, then by all means make 5 year leases standard.
But at the moment the tenant can back out of a lease whenever they feel like it. Whereas the LL cant.

Youre looking at it from a contract on equal terms but its not. Its a business for the ll but a home for the tenant. Think of an employment contract. The employer will find it harder to get out of.

As a business you need to be stable but as an individual there are many factors that can change your circumstances.

Ray Palmer

gaius c wrote: »

Really?
You do realise that you need 200% increases to cancel out 50% drops?

Yes but I also know not everybody bought at the peak of the market and that is the majority.

I was in negative equity for 2 years and if I sold now I would make a nice profit. Friends spent similar amounts on their property further out from employment. They went into negative equity before me and are still in it.

A drop from the peak means very little to you unless that is when you bought. When you bought is the important thing and you may have noticed prices were going up by large amounts. 50% of your house price that was 200% more than you paid for it allows you to exit negative equity really quickly. Every increase after that is still more value on your home.

ezra_pound

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Why do people do this? It's like provocation into a tit for tat row - I know the answer but you don't. Why not just give/explain the answer if you know it?

You need 100% increase to cancel out a 50% drop. Unless you keep working from the initial valuation which would make no sense.

100K becomes 50K - a 50% drop.

In order to become 100K again 50K needs to double - a 100% increase (I suspect this is where the initial poster got confused, calling a doubling 200%).

That's my take on it anyway, the poster was making the point that when the value is down you need to climb back more RELATIVELY to get to where you started from.

If I'm wrong, I'd appreciate someone actually explaining it properly .

Yes. You're right. And so am i . the required increase is 100%. Therefore the figure of 200% is incorrect.

ionapaul

MouseTail wrote: »

I'm not, but I also recall that as being a closed low skilled economy, low wages, women absent from the workforce, poor progression to third level education. I dont think you can compare our socio economy, and therefore house price drivers, now to anytime pre mid 90s. Its a different country.

This. Time. It's. Different.

MouseTail

ionapaul wrote: »

This. Time. It's. Different.

Which of the factors I named do you think has not changed since the 1980s?

Jaybor

gaius c wrote: »

You might be too young to remember it but there was a time when house prices didn't swing as wildly as Irish oil exploration shares.

You mean having to emigrate to London to work on building sites in the lates 80s when nobody had a
job here and 90% of my class emigrated.
Lining up on the the street in crickewood hoping to get picked to work on a site each day. Then seeing the uk property crash. And when there were no more jobs even in the UK having to spend 6 months at a time in Germany and Saudi Arabia.
Then retraining eventually in IT only to see the .com bust and then another property crash.

Yep im old enough.

But I saw other things. Things always seem like they are the worst ever to people who havent experienced previous economic hardship.
There is always a recovery, and the swings get bigger each cycle.

Valuable life lessons is what I treat them as. When we have a boom, im preparing for the crash. And when we have a crash Im preparing for the boom. Now is no different to before, regarding boom/bust. People always think their current experience is somehow special.

But for sure life is far, far better in Ireland now than it was then. People are much better off.

Society moves on and grows into something different, but at the end of the day there will be boom and bust cycles all the time. This will never change.

The_Conductor

MouseTail wrote: »

I'm not, but I also recall that as being a closed low skilled economy, low wages, women absent from the workforce, poor progression to third level education. I dont think you can compare our socio economy, and therefore house price drivers, now to anytime pre mid 90s. Its a different country.

Apple opened in Cork in 1980.
Hewlett Packard opened here in 1982.
Intel opened in Leixlip in 1989.
Dell opened in Limerick in 1991.

Looking at the pharmaceutical sector- 9 of the top 10 global pharmaceutical companies have operations based in Ireland- with the first companies attracted here in 1974- 40 years ago.

In all of the above cases- a young and well educated workforce was cited as the reason for the above companies opening facilities and over time migrating research and development here. As we have developed and matured- so too have the industries attracted here- and even lower skilled computer manufacturing has progressed to higher skilled alternates.

We have had booms and busts previously- if you were to allow for inflation and price residential property and farm land from 1978 in today's terms- you'd be in for a shock......... Few people remember. Farmland and development land- had a massive boom in the 70s- before its inevitable bust- the whole lot comes in cycles, sometimes people remember the previous cycles, sometimes, they don't.

Suggesting we were an insular people working low skilled jobs before the 90s- doesn't do justice to the many thousands of very high skilled jobs we attracted here in the 70s and 80s- and glance through the CTT/IDA advertisements from the early 80s- showcasing how we sold ourselves to predominantly US inward investment- will elicit a wry smile from many of us oldtimers here..........