Forecats for inflation and interest rates

burly

Hi all,

Hope this is the best place to put this. i am doing a project for a course I am doing, and I need forecasts of the average interest rates and inflation for Ireland up to 2035 if possible. I have historical data up to 2014 but cant seem to find anywhere online that gives these forecasts, anyone got any ideas?

Much appreciated.

pedroeibar1

I really wonder what you are studying and at what level. Weather forecasts are accurate for about a week ahead, interest / inflation rates are only marginally more predictable. While one can guess a bit further ahead, anything beyond a year is a waste of space. Looking at 2035 is a nonsense.

Peterdalkey

http://www.google.ie/imgres?client=safari&sa=X&hl=en-gb&biw=1024&bih=648&tbm=isch&tbnid=TmrbGFCZBwDD6M:&imgrefurl=http://www.maggietanner.co.uk/portfolio/cats/four-cats/&docid=6QLjHDAvNhoNKM&imgurl=http://www.maggietanner.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Four_Cats_watermarked.jpg&w=1342&h=510&ei=4ngXU4uAFoGihgfioYAo&zoom=1&ved=0CD0QhBwwBA

Not a hope that I would know but these guys might. Cant even find anything remotely that far out online. Let us know what you discover!

burly

Peterdalkey wrote: »

http://www.google.ie/imgres?client=safari&sa=X&hl=en-gb&biw=1024&bih=648&tbm=isch&tbnid=TmrbGFCZBwDD6M:&imgrefurl=http://www.maggietanner.co.uk/portfolio/cats/four-cats/&docid=6QLjHDAvNhoNKM&imgurl=http://www.maggietanner.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Four_Cats_watermarked.jpg&w=1342&h=510&ei=4ngXU4uAFoGihgfioYAo&zoom=1&ved=0CD0QhBwwBA

Not a hope that I would know but these guys might. Cant even find anything remotely that far out online. Let us know what you discover!

I get it, the 'forecats'... very funny! :-)

Don't worry about it guys, il just make assumptions, it a nonsense I agree, but I didn't set the brief, I'm just trying to pass the bloody thing!

Gloomtastic!

Ok, try this for starters ........

The US, UK and most of Europe is drowning in debt - public and private - at the moment. Much like Japan was 20 years ago.

Japan's interest rates and inflation have been going nowhere for the last twenty years and unless the world's economy collapses completely and we have to start again, then I don't believe our interest rates and inflation are going anywhere for the next couple of decades.

pedroeibar1

burly wrote: »

I didn't set the brief, I'm just trying to pass the bloody thing!

OK, so they want to test you on methodology, not your exact 'call' on what will happen. Make something up, like it will be the same (+/- flat for the next 5 years), then rates will rise by v. small increments to say 5% (lag inflation / interest rates), then dip again (problems in Greece and or Italy), then show slight staggered recovery. Put in a crises at year 15 (France going off the rails, social welfare reform) to shoot the figures to crap, then steady it down again. What they want is a bit of creativity and to see your methodology. Do not hand in a flatline graph, it is too easy and shows you are not interested.

Merrion

Could you use the Yield curve (for interest rates)?