Malaysia Airlines flight MH370-Updates and Discussion

Royal Irish

ardle1 wrote: »

You may just as well pass this comment on to any ex pilot or specialist speaking on CNN or Sky news! no evidence is available on this particular incident!!

Who needs evidence when a tinfoil hat is just as good.

Jambo

Sky News seem to be giving airtime to the fire theory and are also reporting that the search is now focusing towards the end of the southern corridor/area

Mr Pseudonym

This is a nice summary of many of the theories: Missing Malaysia plane: 10 theories examined | BBC.

Bigcheeze

CaptainSkidmark wrote: »

I Like this theory
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

I used to like it but now it has emerged that the right turn was programmed in to the flight management system several minutes before the last verbal communication.

Bigcheeze

Mr Pseudonym wrote: »

This is a nice summary of many of the theories: Missing Malaysia plane: 10 theories examined | BBC.

Adds some weight to the cloaking theory as the radar expert estimates the aircraft would need to be within 1,000 metres of each other. i.e. they wouldn't need to be extremely close.

Happyman42

I was listening to the Israeli ambassador say that 'you would be suprised what we know about the region' last night.
You have to wonder when you see something like this what exactly is it that we 'don't know'.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-tightens-airspace-security-after-jets-disappearance/

pfurey101

Jambo wrote: »

Sky News seem to be giving airtime to the fire theory and are also reporting that the search is now focusing towards the end of the southern corridor/area

Until the next one.

SpaceTime

CaptainSkidmark wrote: »

I Like this theory
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

There were reports of a cargo of Lithium Ion batteries in the hold too. Those things can really produce a LOT of heat when they go up.

Happyman42

SpaceTime wrote: »

There were reports of a cargo of Lithium Ion batteries in the hold too. Those things can really produce a LOT of heat when they go up.

Was that confirmed? There where also reports of billions in gold bullion in the hold.
You would think they would know what was and wasn't in the hold at this stage.

intellectual dosser

sopretty wrote: »

Oh don't apologise! I just wish I could get my head around the whole lot! Please have a read of my doubts about this theory and let me know what you think also.
It seems implausible to me, but as they say 'a little knowledge is a dangerous thing'.

I'm just learning this morning the information that the left turn was pre-entered into the navigation system - which I guess would change everything if confirmed true. It would certainly disprove the theory that the flight crew were reacting to a major incident. Given that they're searching peoples homes etc I'm starting to wonder if it is indeed true but they're not telling. I'm sorry that I'm so back and forth on my beliefs, the media have me ruined.

We have Sky News on at work and I just saw "BREAKING NEWS: Missing Plane", when I stood up for a better look I realised the breaking news was that people had been forcibly removed from the press conference.

Happyman42

intellectual dosser wrote: »

I'm just learning this morning the information that the left turn was pre-entered into the navigation system - which I guess would change everything if confirmed true. It would certainly disprove the theory that the flight crew were reacting to a major incident. Given that they're searching peoples homes etc I'm starting to wonder if it is indeed true but they're not telling. I'm sorry that I'm so back and forth on my beliefs, the media have me ruined.

We have Sky News on at work and I just saw "BREAKING NEWS: Missing Plane", when I stood up for a better look I realised the breaking news was that people had been forcibly removed from the press conference.

Sorry to be looking for sources, but I have heard it mentioned a few times now that 'the left turn was pre-entered'. Is that confirmed anywhere?

intellectual dosser

Happyman42 wrote: »

Sorry to be looking for sources, but I have heard it mentioned a few times now that 'the left turn was pre-entered'. Is that confirmed anywhere?

No, so far it's "A US Official told CNN...." like here.

As I said, if this was confirmed, it should narrow things quite significantly.

Growler!!!

intellectual dosser wrote: »

No, so far it's "A US Official told CNN...." like here.

As I said, if this was confirmed, it should narrow things quite significantly.

When they say pre-programmed, that could mean seconds before the turn or hours.

Normal procedure with us is pilot flying (PF) enters the waypoints in the FMS and pilot monitoring (PM) checks and confirms the route.

There is no way of checking this from the ground as entries to the FMS are not recorded. That's why I'm confused when they say it was pre programmed. The plane made a turn either under direction of the pilot through the autopilot or physically through the control column.

highlydebased

Just on associated press on twitter, "Malaysia says files were recently deleted from flight simulator of pilot aboard missing jet."

https://twitter.com/AP/status/446223241510920192

Grandpa Hassan

intellectual dosser wrote: »

No, so far it's "A US Official told CNN...." like here.

As I said, if this was confirmed, it should narrow things quite significantly.

I agree. I don't understand why the world's press is not all over this, asking the Malaysian's to confirm or deny that the flight plan was changed before the verbal "good night" sign off. If true, it is a complete game changer, surely? Or am I missing something?

kstand

CaptainSkidmark wrote: »

I Like this theory
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

Interesting - if you draw a line from his rough last known position where he was supposed to have turned and go through Pulau Langkawi airport, you more or less end up over Kuva Huvadhoo in the Maldives where there are eye witness accounts of a plane with a similar livery flying at low altitude at roughly the correct time for it to be there. Not a bad lead, especially with eye witnesses - there cant be too many commercial airliners flying over Kuva Huvadhoo - and not low enough for people to come of their houses wondering what it is.

intellectual dosser

Growler!!! wrote: »

When they say pre-programmed, that could mean seconds before the turn or hours.

Normal procedure with us is pilot flying (PF) enters the waypoints in the FMS and pilot monitoring (PM) checks and confirms the route.

There is no way of checking this from the ground as entries to the FMS are not recorded. That's why I'm confused when they say it was pre programmed. The plane made a turn either under direction of the pilot through the autopilot or physically through the control column.

Sticking with the CNN vibe, and I realise I'm going on and on about an unconfirmed report, but if you go down their Twitter page to 7hrs ago they claim the manoeuvre was prepreogrammed at least 12mins before it was made.

Sorry I dont know how to link to specific tweets.

pfurey101

This lifted word for word from the professional pilots rumour network. It's very useful and should answer some of the madder speculation. But it probably won't!

Member Credit: Suninmyeyes at 19th Mar 2014, 09:33:

"I am a 777 pilot and have waded painfully through all these pages.

Just a few points:

To be pedantic the 777 transponder cannot be turned off in flight from the flight deck. ie depowered with digits blank. There is no off switch, however there is a standy position which will stop it radiating. You would have to pull the circuit breaker to totally depower it. In flight on the 777 you never go to standby if you are given a change of squawk.

The suggestion of taking off with main tank fuel pumps off is not a valid possibility. The electronic checklist would not tick itself off, and there are clues on the eicas screen. If you did take off like that and the engines failed in cruise you would get low pressure fuel warnings first and your radios would still be working normally.

As to who made the last radio call. If the Captain is handling pilot the copilot would normally make the radio calls. However for various reasons i.e. the copilot out of the flight deck, copilot on the intercom to cabin crew , the Captain may have made the call. So role is not definitive proof.

In the event of a fire you do not climb to snuff out flames.

The 777 does not have a mach trimmer.

Can a 777 get to FL450? In true mythbuster spirit we put this to the test in a 777-2 simulator. A 777 with a full load of passengers has a zero fuel weight of between 170 and 180 tonnes, say 175 tonnes. 8 hours of fuel is approximately 52 tonnes. So a takeoff weight of approx 227 tonnes minus a bit of taxi fuel. At that weight the FMS says Max Alt FL409. The plane will climb easily to FL410.

Now it gets interesting. At FL410 There is a very small gap on the airspeed tape between the VMO and the yellow which is minimum manoeuvring speed. If you disconnect the autothrottle and firewall the thrust levers, then wait until the speed is about to trigger the VMO warning and then disconnect the autopilot and raise the nose you can do a zoom climb. Although into the yellow pretty quickly there is still a long way before you get to the red digits on the airspeed which is the point at which the stick shaker activates.. The elevator gets incredibly heavy as it is made artificially heavier as the Boeing 777 really doesn't want you to do this. With P2 pulling with all his might he still could not raise the nose to anywhere near 10 degrees. Putting the flight controls into direct mode made it easier. We got it to FL 443 at which point the stick shaker activated and P2 gratefully reduced the back pressure. This sim had GE engines. RR are a bit more powerful and if they had used an hour more fuel than our simulation I think it would have been feasible. Interestingly at FL440 the cabin alt was still at 8000 feet as per normal, so it must have used a higher diff than normal but still had not reached the max diff where the relief valve opens.

As regards the possibilities:

I believe the event probably started with the flight deck door opening and either a pilot exiting or someone else entering. I suspect someone with knowledge then deliberately disabled transponder, acars and satcom.

As for the gradual depressurisation theory. I cannot buy that because the normal cabin alt is 8000, if it gently depressurised it might not be noticed but at 10,000 feet cabin alt there is a very loud horn and red "cabin Alt" warning. No pilot should be unconscious by this point, the passenger masks don't even drop until a cabin altitude of 14000 feet so they would have seen the warning at 10,000 feet and taken action.

The rapid depressurisation theory and the pilots unconscious due to either failing to put masks on or failure of the oxygen system. This might have been a possibility except the transponder stopped radiating. In an emergency descent you do not touch the knob of the transponder switch. I have never put a 777 transponder to sby in flight and it would be totally alien. The transponder selector knob is not part of the emergency descent checklist.

A massive electrical failure or smoke in the flight deck? Possible but extremely unlikely for it to all happen at once with no chance to get even a radio call out. Also flying for 5 more hours. Would it not be better to head for land then circle and get attention?

A great mystery."
　

jasonb

intellectual dosser wrote: »

Sticking with the CNN vibe, and I realise I'm going on and on about an unconfirmed report, but if you go down their Twitter page to 7hrs ago they claim the manoeuvre was prepreogrammed at least 12mins before it was made.

Sorry I dont know how to link to specific tweets.

Which suggests that they think that the last ACARS signal had proof that the new heading had been programmed in. I have no idea if any of the various types of systems that come under ACARS would include that information or not. But as people have said here, *if* they have proof that a new course was entered in before the Flight Officer spoke to ATC, that does point towards one of the flight crew being involved. However, that's a big IF!

Regarding the Flight Sim belonging to the pilot, a lot has been made of it. I really hope it doesn't turn out that he did all this, and practised it on the Flight SIM first, if for no other reason than it'll tell anyone who believes that 'Pilot + home Flight Sim = Terrorist' that they're 'right'. Whereas, of course, a lot of Pilots have Flight Sims at home, it doesn't make them all terrorists!

And I'm sure that any PC ever searched has had 'files recently deleted' from it. Until they say the files deleted proved that he was planning this all along, it means nothing...

J.

Happyman42

jasonb wrote: »

Which suggests that they think that the last ACARS signal had proof that the new heading had been programmed in. I have no idea if any of the various types of systems that come under ACARS would include that information or not. But as people have said here, *if* they have proof that a new course was entered in before the Flight Officer spoke to ATC, that does point towards one of the flight crew being involved. However, that's a big IF!

Regarding the Flight Sim belonging to the pilot, a lot has been made of it. I really hope it doesn't turn out that he did all this, and practised it on the Flight SIM first, if for no other reason than it'll tell anyone who believes that 'Pilot + home Flight Sim = Terrorist' that they're 'right'. Whereas, of course, a lot of Pilots have Flight Sims at home, it doesn't make them all terrorists!

And I'm sure that any PC ever searched has had 'files recently deleted' from it. Until they say the files deleted proved that he was planning this all along, it means nothing...

J.

I don't think the flight sim is of great significance either. If he planned this he would have made sure that there was nothing to thwart his plan. Anybody would know that eventually they would come knocking on the door...destroy the evidence totally, deleting some files would just be stupid.
Only mitigating factor in that ^ is that it is indeed, a sad and tragic pilot suicide, which I am not buying at this stage.
With a Hollywood hat on, maybe the pilot was under pressure/threat from some nefarious sources and has left clues on the simulator, knowing that experts could maybe figure them out. Enter Bruce Willis, stage left!

Flippyfloppy

kstand wrote: »

Interesting - if you draw a line from his rough last known position where he was supposed to have turned and go through Pulau Langkawi airport, you more or less end up over Kuva Huvadhoo in the Maldives where there are eye witness accounts of a plane with a similar livery flying at low altitude at roughly the correct time for it to be there. Not a bad lead, especially with eye witnesses - there cant be too many commercial airliners flying over Kuva Huvadhoo - and not low enough for people to come of their houses wondering what it is.

Malaysian press conference gives information that reports of low flying aircraft over Maldives are false

lb1

At this stage as more information eventually trickles out the likelihood of this being an accident of some kind seems remote. I therefor can only assume two things, either there is a huge cover up taking place or the intelligence agencies are now involved in a major operation to locate the plane before it is used in some sort of attack.

lb1

Flippyfloppy wrote: »

Malaysian press conference gives information that reports of low flying aircraft over Maldives are false

How were they proven false? were all the fishermen brought in and given polygraphs?

Give it a week or so and they will probably do a u-turn on this, that seems to be how they operate.

pfurey101

lb1 wrote: »

At this stage as more information eventually trickles out the likelihood of this being an accident of some kind seems remote. I therefor can only assume two things, either there is a huge cover up taking place or the intelligence agencies are now involved in a major operation to locate the plane before it is used in some sort of attack.

Or

The whole thing stinks in terms of lack of a cohesive multi national SAR mission, lots of politics, agendas, authority pettiness/arrogance, reluctance to divulge info and unbelievably atrocious handling by an inept Malaysian government.

kstand

lb1 wrote: »

How were they proven false? were all the fishermen brought in and given polygraphs?

Give it a week or so and they will probably do a u-turn on this, that seems to be how they operate.

Looking at the time lines again - not sure they tally up unless the plane didn't fly in a straight line. If they say they saw the plane at 06:15am, that's 09:15am Malaysian time - 8 hours after last contact. In 8 hours that plane should have travelled a hell of a lot further than the Maldives...

Happyman42

lb1 wrote: »

How were they proven false? were all the fishermen brought in and given polygraphs?

Give it a week or so and they will probably do a u-turn on this, that seems to be how they operate.

Would they not simply have examined radar records for the area? (I don't know how they would check this btw)

kstand

Happyman42 wrote: »

Would they not simply have examined radar records for the area? (I don't know how they would check this btw)

Diego Garcia is a US naval base not far from the Maldives in relative terms, they should have radar records one would imagine.

Mick55

intellectual dosser wrote: »

"A US Official told CNN...."

A law enforcement official told CNN that the plane's programmed change in direction was entered at least 12 minutes before the plane's verbal sign off with air traffic controllers at 1:19 a.m. -- that tallies with the time of the last ACARS transmission.


Is this information relayed to the ground and saved? I know this kind of information is recorded on the black box but is it also sent to the ground, or how would they know that the plane was maneuvered by the flight management system and not the joystick?

sopretty

I've linked a blogspot below. I have no idea who wrote it, but it is easy to read.

Can anyone comment on the point I have highlighted in bold below? Specifically, where is this information coming from or where is it being reported to? Also, if 'they' can confirm the plane passed a waypoint, why are they still saying that the 'last known location' was at 1.21am (I realise I'm harping on once again about this point!) Thanks in advance.



MH370 operated by a Boeing 777-200ER departs Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia at 00:41L on 8th March 2014 (16:41Z, 7th March), the flight climbs to its cruising altitude of 35,000ft en-route to Beijing, China with 227 passengers and a crew of 12 onboard.
MH370 has a total block fuel of 7hrs, its required fuel for the route is 5hrs 55mins. The 1hr 05mins of buffer fuel is required for safety regulations and to allow holding and diversion if necessary, its fuel was within guidelines. Its fuel would have run out at around 07:30L (23:30Z).
At 01:07L (17:07Z) the last ACARS message is received signifying the aircraft is operating normally, it will next transmit a message at 01:37L (17:37Z).
At 01:19L (17:19Z), MH370 is handed off to controllers in Vietnam - The last words from the flight deck are spoken by the First Officer, ''All right, good night.''
At 01:21L (17:21Z), the transponder is switched off - it is not known when precisely the ACARS system is switched off, the next scheduled message transmission from ACARS was 01:37L (17:37Z), meaning it could have been switched off anytime between 01:07L (17:07Z) and 01:37L (17:37Z).
At 01:21L (17:21Z), MH370 deviates from its route to Beijing, the flight never reaches IGARI, it changes direction and heads directly west to waypoint VAMPI together with the navigational change its altitude also climbs/drops.
At 02:40L (18:40Z), MH370 is last tracked routing from VAMPI to GIVAL and then to IGREX, it's altitude continues to fluctuate; well below and above its cruise altitude of 35,000ft. It is now 285nm from IGARI, at precisely the same time the flight is declared missing around that waypoint.
Until 08:11L (00:11Z), MH370 continues to broadcast via satellites; meaning it possibly flew on for another 5 to 6 hours after its disappearance. However it is believed these broadcasts contained no data, simply the aircraft was communicating, ''I'm here, are you?''.



The blog goes on to discuss some theories, which is interesting to read also.

http://elevateaviation.blogspot.ie/2014/03/flight-370-what-really-happened-in.html

Growler!!!

There is a lot of talk of the aircraft climbing and descending erratically. There is a situation where this can occur and it has to do with aircraft stability. The erratic increase and decrease in altitude is called a phugoid. It may indicate no control input from the flight deck crew if they were incapacitated.