Malaysia Airlines flight MH370-Updates and Discussion

sopretty · 04-04-2014 12:47pm

IRLConor wrote: »

https://www.google.com/maps?t=m&ll=-7.313333,72.411111&z=4&q=7%C2%B018%2748.0%22S+72%C2%B024%2740.0%22E&cid=0x0&output=classic&dg=ntvo

Thanks for that. Hard to guage, but is that area closer to where they are now searching?

I'm just a little bemused or bewildered maybe as to why this air base has not been discussed in mainstream media. Particularly given the assumed radar and detection capabilities this supposedly has. I find the Americans are very quiet on this whole situation.

IRLConor · 04-04-2014 1:06pm

sopretty wrote: »

Thanks for that. Hard to guage, but is that area closer to where they are now searching?

I've no idea.

sopretty wrote: »

I'm just a little bemused or bewildered maybe as to why this air base has not been discussed in mainstream media. Particularly given the assumed radar and detection capabilities this supposedly has. I find the Americans are very quiet on this whole situation.

The USA tends to keep quiet about it since it's such an important base for the region. It's used as a supply base for war stocks and has hosted long range bombers for the Iraq & Afghanistan wars. It has also allegedly been used as a detention facility for prisoners.

Calina · 04-04-2014 1:29pm

sopretty wrote: »

Thanks for that. Hard to guage, but is that area closer to where they are now searching?

I'm just a little bemused or bewildered maybe as to why this air base has not been discussed in mainstream media. Particularly given the assumed radar and detection capabilities this supposedly has. I find the Americans are very quiet on this whole situation.

Depends on your definition of closer. You are still talking about a distance of at least 2000km, ie, not in the ball park. It's like losing something in Dublin and searching for it in Serbia. And that's a map based visual assessment using the scale on the map. I suspect it's further again.

This airbase is not discussed in mainstream media because given the available information it's not a factor. The mainstream media has already filled the vacuum of available information with fanciful drivel. Do you really want more?

relaxed · 04-04-2014 2:15pm

sopretty wrote: »

I'm just a little bemused or bewildered maybe as to why this air base has not been discussed in mainstream media. Particularly given the assumed radar and detection capabilities this supposedly has. I find the Americans are very quiet on this whole situation.

Because as a conspiracy theory its pushing it. There are probably US bases or aircraft carrier groups closer to Malaysia anyway.

billie1b · 04-04-2014 2:54pm

Red Pepper wrote: »

I am pretty certain that, unless they find it in the next few days before the black box locator signal loses power, it will never ever be found.
Air France was different, they had a fair idea where it was, they had shallower and calmer seas, the search vessels were closer to land to make the search easier logistically.

I believe the search will be called off when it gets too expensive over the next few months. They might maintain a "token" search but it will be in vain.

AF447 was found between 3800-4000 metres under the Atlantic, same depth as the area the are now searching for MH370 in. The AF447 search was called off for months at a time due to the Atlantics current, rough seas and hurricane seasons it gets. MH370 is not all that different from the AF447 disappearance, the only major difference was the Airbus' communication and radar systems were still on and able to be tracked to its last known location, which narrowed the search massively.

Yael · 04-04-2014 3:31pm

SNAKEDOC wrote: »

I have thought about this incident every day since it happened and ran a lot of senarios in my head. The investigators im sure are doing the same hence the food thing being checked. But if the food was at fault surly that does not explain the comms being swithced off and why the plane turned around and kept flying.
My view is still hijacking by a crew member ie pilot or a group of hijackers posing as passengers with knowhow for turning off comms kit. .

The theory you bring of the hijacked plane is a likely theory.

This theory explains the fact that the plane turned right as it was about to leave the Malaysian airspace - which is a good place, they said, if there was the intention for this to be less noticeable as possible.
One thing that bothers me with the theory is that - if the reports are true - the plane continued flying until using all the fuel. And that doesn't add up.

What people wrote here about the so called corridor was new to me - as the plane could fly for an hour from any part of the arcs. This is a huge area.

SNAKEDOC · 04-04-2014 3:42pm

billie1b wrote: »

AF447 was found between 3800-4000 metres under the Atlantic, same depth as the area the are now searching for MH370 in. The AF447 search was called off for months at a time due to the Atlantics current, rough seas and hurricane seasons it gets. MH370 is not all that different from the AF447 disappearance, the only major difference was the Airbus' communication and radar systems were still on and able to be tracked to its last known location, which narrowed the search massively.

Another side of my theory takes that into account. Is there any kind of payout to family following a crew member dieing in a crash ie pilot. Now take into account the pilot has detailed knowledge about the flight systems and communications suite and how to disconnect them. What if the pilot somehow managed to neutralise the first officer or vise versa and then fly the plane in completely the wrong direction way out to sea to crash the plane to make recovery almost impossible and prevent the fact that the accident was actually caused by the flight crew member to ensure the payout to his family following the accident. Im not sure if this has being discussed or if its even happened before but if a pilot is suicidal they may still want whats best for their family and a large money payout would motivate someone who is desperate enough.

andy_g · 04-04-2014 4:30pm

Jack1985 wrote: »

Ok lads enough with the conspiracy theories? Getting tiring now.

Careful Jack2985. You were already banned before from this forum, the post above is border line back seat moderation.

sopretty · 04-04-2014 4:34pm

SNAKEDOC wrote: »

Another side of my theory takes that into account. Is there any kind of payout to family following a crew member dieing in a crash ie pilot. Now take into account the pilot has detailed knowledge about the flight systems and communications suite and how to disconnect them. What if the pilot somehow managed to neutralise the first officer or vise versa and then fly the plane in completely the wrong direction way out to sea to crash the plane to make recovery almost impossible and prevent the fact that the accident was actually caused by the flight crew member to ensure the payout to his family following the accident. Im not sure if this has being discussed or if its even happened before but if a pilot is suicidal they may still want whats best for their family and a large money payout would motivate someone who is desperate enough.

We've not been told anything about the basis of investigation into the pilots and crew, much less any potential motive. That is fair.
We have been told however that a criminal investigation is ongoing in relation to pilots and crew. By the Malaysian police.

kippy · 04-04-2014 10:09pm

Red Pepper wrote: »

I am pretty certain that, unless they find it in the next few days before the black box locator signal loses power, it will never ever be found.
Air France was different, they had a fair idea where it was, they had shallower and calmer seas, the search vessels were closer to land to make the search easier logistically.

I believe the search will be called off when it gets too expensive over the next few months. They might maintain a "token" search but it will be in vain.

There's absolutely no way that this will happen.
This plane simply HAS to be found and whatever facts that are not know right now need to come out if.

I mean this is not a single seater prop with little technology that went missing in the middle of the atlantic. This is a piece of kit worth millions, carrying over 230 people, in an age where technology and surveillance as well as the capability to complete a search such as this has ever been better.

The ramifications of at the very least not finding some wreckage or the plane itself are huge for any number of different people and organisations.
It simply cannot and will not be left "lost" in my opinion.
There are far too many unanswered questions with significant ramifications.

Red Pepper · 04-04-2014 10:38pm

kippy wrote: »

There's absolutely no way that this will happen.
This plane simply HAS to be found and whatever facts that are not know right now need to come out if.

Just because the world needs to know doesn't mean it's actually possible.
The longer the search goes on, the less chance they have. The black box signal will soon stop.

For Air France 447, they found debris and bodies within 5 days. It still took 2 years to find the plane.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority has determined a search area of about 84,000 square miles (218,000 square kilometers), 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) northwest of Perth.
"Really, the best we can do right now is put these assets (black box locators) in the best location -- the best guess we have -- and kind of let them go," U.S. Navy Cmdr. William Marks told CNN. "Until we get conclusive evidence of debris, it is just a guess."

Bill Schofield, an Australian scientist who worked on developing flight data recorders, said, "If they do find it, I think it'll be remarkable."

The batteries that power the recorders' pingers, or locator beacons, are designed to last at least 30 days from the time they begin operating.

On Thursday, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott warned that "we cannot be certain of ultimate success in the search" for the Malaysian aircraft. He described it as the most difficult search "in human history."

kippy · 05-04-2014 1:31am

Red Pepper wrote: »

Just because the world needs to know doesn't mean it's actually possible.
The longer the search goes on, the less chance they have. The black box signal will soon stop.

For Air France 447, they found debris and bodies within 5 days. It still took 2 years to find the plane.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority has determined a search area of about 84,000 square miles (218,000 square kilometers), 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) northwest of Perth.
"Really, the best we can do right now is put these assets (black box locators) in the best location -- the best guess we have -- and kind of let them go," U.S. Navy Cmdr. William Marks told CNN. "Until we get conclusive evidence of debris, it is just a guess."

Bill Schofield, an Australian scientist who worked on developing flight data recorders, said, "If they do find it, I think it'll be remarkable."

The batteries that power the recorders' pingers, or locator beacons, are designed to last at least 30 days from the time they begin operating.

On Thursday, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott warned that "we cannot be certain of ultimate success in the search" for the Malaysian aircraft. He described it as the most difficult search "in human history."

I get the challenges involved.
But this simply wont be forgotten about.
It has to be found. Moreover the longer it goes on the MORE likely they are to find it for numerous other reasons. However long it takes and using whatever resources that are required. There are simply far too many unanswered questions. The families and their governments will keep the pressure on.

wil · 05-04-2014 2:12am

sopretty wrote: »

Thanks for that. Hard to guage, but is that area closer to where they are now searching?

I'm just a little bemused or bewildered maybe as to why this air base has not been discussed in mainstream media. Particularly given the assumed radar and detection capabilities this supposedly has. I find the Americans are very quiet on this whole situation.

Most people would probably be unaware of US air bases far far closer to home, local names but entirely fully fledged US "soil", though many have been mothballed in recent years.
They don't publicise for good reason.

I'm sure similar exists in many countries around the world.

interesting to note the search area is so remote, AMSa brought their own ATC support plane.

Red Pepper · 05-04-2014 10:05am

kippy wrote: »

I get the challenges involved.
But this simply wont be forgotten about.
It has to be found. Moreover the longer it goes on the MORE likely they are to find it for numerous other reasons. However long it takes and using whatever resources that are required. There are simply far too many unanswered questions. The families and their governments will keep the pressure on.

Governments and authorities will move on especially when the accountants show them the numbers. Yes the families wont forget and there will be books/documentaries etc but the world will move on.

I believe there are "safety" features that could be implemented without finding the plane or maybe should be implemented without waiting to find the plane. For example, plane transponders should be absolutely impossible to turn off manually while the plane is in the air - put them on the wing tips with their own power source so that the crew would have to walk the wings to get to it!

sopretty · 05-04-2014 10:42am

Informative statement given by acting Transport Minister now.

I'm quite impressed with the UK's military technology! We don't know what does be going on half the time!!!!

Sam Russell · 05-04-2014 11:35am

Is it possible to 'land' a B777 in open sea in such a way that it does not break up into too many pieces? By that, I mean maybe losing big bits like engines and wings but keeping the fuselage in one piece and so not having a debris field.

By the way, in Dr No they hijacked a Vulcan bomber and 'landed' underwater to retreive the nuclear bomb. (I know, it was only a story).

I think it will never be found, and the lessons to be learned are:
1. Ground ATC passes control to the next ATC.
2. Transponders cannot be disabled.
3. Satellite uploading of transponder information will become mandatory, perhaps once per 10 mins or so.
4. FDR CVR data could kept on a second less robust but easier to locate module. This would be in addition to existing black boxes.

That would be of great help to any future searches.

Dr. Bre · 05-04-2014 11:38am

there'sa better chance of picking a winner in the grand national then finding this plane

sopretty · 05-04-2014 11:44am

Sam Russell wrote: »

Is it possible to 'land' a B777 in open sea in such a way that it does not break up into too many pieces? By that, I mean maybe losing big bits like engines and wings but keeping the fuselage in one piece and so not having a debris field.

That's an interesting question. As a complete layperson, from photos of the plane shown on Sky, it looks like a very long plane. I'm sure there is some explanation in physics involving the fulcrum or something, but to me it seems like something not made for abuse so to speak. To try to put it in terms to express what I'm not able to express 'it would be easier to break a long stick in the middle than it would be to break a short butty stick'.

Therefore, I would hazard a guess, that any significant impact, would have shattered the plane. Maybe not, but that would be my guess.
Gosh, don't you just hate it when you can't find educated language to express yourself!

Calina · 05-04-2014 11:55am

Sam Russell wrote: »

Is it possible to 'land' a B777 in open sea in such a way that it does not break up into too many pieces? By that, I mean maybe losing big bits like engines and wings but keeping the fuselage in one piece and so not having a debris field.

Debris field would include the engines and wings. The only way you can avoid debris is for the plane not to break up at all. The issue would be how big or how small the debris field is. I'm not sure this is feasible. The possibilities are also guided by sea conditions at the location.

Based on the issues they are having with weather and the search over the past few weeks, calm is almost certainly not guaranteed.

gebbel · 05-04-2014 12:40pm

Chinese patrol ship discovers pulse signal with frequency of 37.5 kHz/second in south Indian Ocean - state news agency. Breaking news from CNN.

Mellor · 05-04-2014 12:41pm

Dr. Bre wrote: »

there'sa better chance of picking a winner in the grand national then finding this plane

Your chances of picking the winner in the grand national are pretty high

sopretty · 05-04-2014 12:48pm

gebbel wrote: »

Chinese patrol ship discovers pulse signal with frequency of 37.5 kHz/second in south Indian Ocean - state news agency. Breaking news from CNN.

Oh God - I hope they have found it.

sully2010 · 05-04-2014 12:59pm

This is what happened a 767 landing in calm seas. The Indian ocean would have been much rougher than this. Its a very difficult task to land it without breaking up on the sea. Granted he wasn't perfectly level on contact but I would say the outcome would have been similar even if he had been because of the sea swell. And the massive engines on a 777 wouldn't help matters either.

The landing on the Hudson was different because the river was flat calm and almost glass like that day.

An ATR also attempted a ditching in the Mediterranean in 2005 and broke up.

sopretty · 05-04-2014 1:05pm

Thanks for that video Sully.

ninebeanrows · 05-04-2014 1:11pm

Big news if this is true.

Happyman42 · 05-04-2014 1:13pm

gebbel wrote: »

Chinese patrol ship discovers pulse signal with frequency of 37.5 kHz/second in south Indian Ocean - state news agency. Breaking news from CNN.

Once they hear the pulse, what does it narrow the search area to, or will it give a precise location?

sopretty · 05-04-2014 1:15pm

From what I heard on CNN (wasn't listening intently), it could take 12 to 24 hours for it to be located. I guess, they just know it's in the vicinity, but don't know where it is exactly?