Malaysia Airlines flight MH370-Updates and Discussion

sopretty

It's the most shambled mess of an investigation that I've ever come across. That said, it is probably the only shambled mess of an investigation that I have followed closely.

sully2010

sopretty wrote: »

It's the most shambled mess of an investigation that I've ever come across. That said, it is probably the only shambled mess of an investigation that I have followed closely.

Your right there it is a shambles, id be losing the plot if anyone close to me was on that plane.

Meanwhile the batteries are due to run out on the black boxes in a few days
and they may be looking in the wrong area.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/05/flight-mh370-hunt-wrong-area

Tenger

K.Flyer wrote: »

Was the plane flying near enough to one of these bases to raise an alert?.......
What then is the likelihood of this plane having been shot out of the sky if its trajectory posed a potential threat.

The range of the aircraft from the satellite data based arc would not put it near Diego Garcia.

sopretty wrote: »

At the risk of being crass, China has absolutely no financial reason to investigate this incident. If they did conduct a separate investigation, it will not be to let the involved families know.

This saga has a geopolitical element. China is asserting its dominance over other SE.Asian countries by being so aggressive, also this search allows it to showcase the ability of its military to put assets in place rapidly.

sopretty

Tenger wrote: »

The range of the aircraft from the satellite data based arc would not put it near Diego Garcia.
This saga has a geopolitical element. China is asserting its dominance over other SE.Asian countries by being so aggressive, also this search allows it to showcase the ability of its military to put assets in place rapidly.

As the fella ses, that's your story and you're sticking to it. :cool:

keno-daytrader

This really is an unbelievable "breakthrough" given the information we have been fed. The Chinese ship was not in the designated search area and they were searching "on their own".

One would have to be in a few km's of the black boxes to pick up a signal, and given the size of the changing search areas its a million to one shot that a ship with detection capabilities would pass over the area with only a few days left of power to the black boxes.

Either China is holding back their intel of the situation and they know exactly where the plane went down and were able to send a ship there, or this turns out to be diversion or wild goose chase again (after so many) .

If it turns out to be the black box, you would have to be very foolish to think they just got "lucky" in finding it a few days before the batteries would die.

If it turns out to be nothing one would have to ask the question why did China put this story out there at this time?

Stinicker

keno-daytrader wrote: »

This really is an unbelievable "breakthrough" given the information we have been fed. The Chinese ship was not in the designated search area and they were searching "on their own".

One would have to be in a few km's of the black boxes to pick up a signal, and given the size of the changing search areas its a million to one shot that a ship with detection capabilities would pass over the area with only a few days left of power to the black boxes.

Either China is holding back their intel of the situation and they know exactly where the plane went down and were able to send a ship there, or this turns out to be diversion or wild goose chase again (after so many) .

If it turns out to be the black box, you would have to be very foolish to think they just got "lucky" in finding it a few days before the batteries would die.

If it turns out to be nothing one would have to ask the question why did China put this story out there at this time?

tharmor wrote: »

A popular theory on MH370 The American is withdrawing from the Afghanistan, one of their command and control system (used for controlling the pilotless drones) was hijacked by the Talebans when the American transport convoy was moving down from one of the hill top bases. The Talebans ambushed the convoy and killed 2 American Seal personnel, seized the equipment/weapons, including the command and control system which weighed about 20 tons and packed into 6 crates. This happened about a month ago in Feb 2014.

What the Talebans want is money. They want to sell the system to the Russian or the Chinese. The Russian is too busy in Ukraine. The Chinese are hungry for the system's technology. Just imagine if the Chinese master the technology behind the command and control system, all the American drones will become useless. So the Chinese sent 8 top defense scientists to check the system and agreed to pay millions for it.

Sometime in early Mar 2014, the 8 scientists and the 6 crates made their way to Malaysia, thinking that it was the best covert way to avoid detection. The cargo was then kept in the Embassy under diplomatic protection. Meanwhile the American has engaged the assistance of Israeli intelligence, and together they are determined to intercept and recapture the cargo.

The Chinese calculated that it will be safe to transport it via civilian aircraft so as to avoid suspicion. After all the direct flight from KL to Beijing takes only 4 and half hours, and the American will not hijack or harm the civilian. So MH370 is the perfect carrier.

There are 5 American and Israeli agents onboard who are familiar with Boeing operation. The 2 "Iranians" with stolen passports could be among them.

When MH370 is about to leave the Malaysian air space and reporting to Vietnamese air control, one American AWAC jammed their signal, disabled the pilot control system and switched over to remote control mode. That was when the plane suddenly lost altitude momentarily.

How the AWAC can do it ? Remember 911 incident ? After the 911 incident, all Boeing aircraft (and possibly all Airbus) are installed with remote control system to counter terrorist hijacking. Since then all the Boeing could be remote controlled by ground control tower. The same remote control system used to control the pilotless spy aircraft and drones.

The 5 American/Israeli agents soon took over the plane, switched off the transponder and other communication system, changed course and flew westwards. They dare not fly east to Philippines or Guam because the whole South China Sea air space was covered by Chinese surveillance radar and satellite.

The Malaysian, Thai and Indian military radars actually detected the unidentified aircraft but did not react professionally.

The plane flew over North Sumatra, Anambas, South India and then landed at Maldives (some villagers saw the aircraft landing), refuelled and continued its flight to Garcia Deigo, the American Air Base in the middle of Indian Ocean. The cargo and the black box were removed. The passengers were silenced via natural means, lack of oxygen. They believe only dead person will not talk. The MH370 with dead passengers were air borne again via remote control and crashed into South Indian Ocean, make it to believe that the plane eventually ran out of fuel and crashed, and blame the defiant captain and copilot.

The American has put up a good show. First diverting all the attention and search effort in the South China Sea while the plane made their way to Indian Ocean. Then they came out with some conflicting statement and evidence to confuse the world. The Australian is the co-actor.


The amount of effort put up by China, in terms of the number of search aircraft, ships and satellites, searching first the South China Sea, then the Malacca Straits and the Indian Ocean is unprecedented. This showed that the China is very concerned, not so much because of the many Chinese civilian passengers, but mainly the high value cargo and its 8 top defense scientists.

The above conspiracy theory quote from two weeks sounds alot more interesting now! and I am one to generally dismiss such theories as the stuff of crackpots and spoofers but if I heard it was true I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised considering the amount of coverups and so little information the general public actually know about what really goes on behind the scenes of governments and corporations. Even if they find the plane I will be suspicious of whatever official explanation they give and the whole thing is now just tainted and the Malaysian's have made a right mess of it.

I just hope they have found it and that they can recover wreckage and bodies to finally allow the families to grieve and have some degree of closure. I very much doubt we will ever know the real truth of what happened and I expect them to either blame the pilots or else boeing for the fiasco, both whom are most likely quite innocent in the incident. To me it is just another coverup and I now lend more credibility to the conspiracy theorists than I do to the official sources.

the_monkey

warren44 wrote: »

Lets say they do find the black box by some miracle, do you really think that the sneaky Malay guvt is going to really release any audio or precise data without being heavily restricted ? After all the black box is their property.

I'd imagine Boeing have a right to hear it, if it's a fault that could be affecting the fleet of 777s they would be legally obliged for this reason alone to hand it over.

pfurey101

Stinicker wrote: »

The above conspiracy theory quote from two weeks sounds alot more interesting now! and I am one to generally dismiss such theories as the stuff of crackpots and spoofers but if I heard it was true I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised considering the amount of coverups and so little information the general public actually know about what really goes on behind the scenes of governments and corporations. Even if they find the plane I will be suspicious of whatever official explanation they give and the whole thing is now just tainted and the Malaysian's have made a right mess of it.

I just hope they have found it and that they can recover wreckage and bodies to finally allow the families to grieve and have some degree of closure. I very much doubt we will ever know the real truth of what happened and I expect them to either blame the pilots or else boeing for the fiasco, both whom are most likely quite innocent in the incident. To me it is just another coverup and I now lend more credibility to the conspiracy theorists than I do to the official sources.

Errrrrr...what's wrong with the Chinese dismantling the "alledged lot" even more, send some or all by road, rail and/or sea?

Too many people giving too many agencies to much credit.

LordSutch

Anyone know if the Chinese have released any pctures of the 'white objects' they photographed today near the pinger location?

kippy

Red Pepper wrote: »

Governments and authorities will move on especially when the accountants show them the numbers. Yes the families wont forget and there will be books/documentaries etc but the world will move on.

I believe there are "safety" features that could be implemented without finding the plane or maybe should be implemented without waiting to find the plane. For example, plane transponders should be absolutely impossible to turn off manually while the plane is in the air - put them on the wing tips with their own power source so that the crew would have to walk the wings to get to it!

The world simply won't move on from this event.
Its not your usual run of the mill event.
A passenger plane carrying 230 plus people on it has vanished. There are hundreds of passenger planes of the same type flying on a daily basis.....
You dont think it's a good idea to ensure everything that could be known about this dissappearance is known about it?

As for the transponders, if you read a number of posts on this thread you'd see that that in itself isnt feasible for health and safety reasons.

pablo128

keno-daytrader wrote: »

One would have to be in a few km's of the black boxes to pick up a signal, and given the size of the changing search areas its a million to one shot that a ship with detection capabilities would pass over the area with only a few days left of power to the black boxes.


If it turns out to be the black box, you would have to be very foolish to think they just got "lucky" in finding it a few days before the batteries would die.

The batteries are guaranteed to last for a month. They can potentially last a good bit longer than that.

Mountainsandh

As for the transponders, if you read a number of posts on this thread you'd see that that in itself isnt feasible for health and safety reasons.

Then again it could be argued that amended transponders and black boxes, with permanent ground based contact (via Satellite), independent from pilot intervention, would also be a health and safety measure.

The question is then, do the risks and coping mechanisms in the event of fire still justify pilots having control over every single device on board, or has the risk of terrorism/human interference tipped the balance ?

Duiske

Tenger wrote: »

The range of the aircraft from the satellite data based arc would not put it near Diego Garcia.
This saga has a geopolitical element. China is asserting its dominance over other SE.Asian countries by being so aggressive, also this search allows it to showcase the ability of its military to put assets in place rapidly.

I don't think so. My own guess at how this ping was located is that it was first picked up by a Chinese submarine, which then directed a Chinese ship to the area to take the credit. Was reading a piece last week by an ex US itelligence guy who said he had no doubts that both US and Chinese subs are involved in this search. Both countries are highly unlikely to admit this as they never give locations for their subs. Far from showcasing the ability of its military, i think the Chinese may be actively hiding it in this case.

SNAKEDOC

Sam Russell wrote: »

Is it possible to 'land' a B777 in open sea in such a way that it does not break up into too many pieces? By that, I mean maybe losing big bits like engines and wings but keeping the fuselage in one piece and so not having a debris field.

By the way, in Dr No they hijacked a Vulcan bomber and 'landed' underwater to retreive the nuclear bomb. (I know, it was only a story).

I think it will never be found, and the lessons to be learned are:
1. Ground ATC passes control to the next ATC.
2. Transponders cannot be disabled.
3. Satellite uploading of transponder information will become mandatory, perhaps once per 10 mins or so.
4. FDR CVR data could kept on a second less robust but easier to locate module. This would be in addition to existing black boxes.

That would be of great help to any future searches.

The bond movie you refer to is thunderball not doctor No. Off topic i know but im a bond mad fan. The hijacked plane landing on water and sinking surfaces in many tv shows and movies airwolf to name another one. The chance of a plane landing in rough seas intact is remote and almost impossible to concieve it staying together and sinking trapping passengers alive inside

MonkieSocks

Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961, a Boeing 767-200ER, was hijacked on 23 November 1996, en route from Addis Ababa to Nairobi on a Bombay–Addis Ababa–Nairobi–Brazzaville–Lagos–Abidjan service, by three Ethiopians seeking asylum in Australia.

The plane crash-landed in the Indian Ocean near Grande Comore, Comoros Islands, due to fuel starvation; 125 of the 175 passengers and crew on board died, along with the hijackers; the rest of the people on board survived with injuries.

A lot of the deceased people died because they inflated their Life Jackets before exiting the Airplane.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_961

kippy

Mountainsandh wrote: »

Then again it could be argued that amended transponders and black boxes, with permanent ground based contact (via Satellite), independent from pilot intervention, would also be a health and safety measure.

The question is then, do the risks and coping mechanisms in the event of fire still justify pilots having control over every single device on board, or has the risk of terrorism/human interference tipped the balance ?

You see, without knowing the full facts of this incident (which we never will if the search is given up on, as speculated by an earlier poster) we'll never know why the transponder was inactive. (Granted even if the plane is found that may not be known anyway)
So speculating that the issues here are down to human interference without knowing the full facts helps no one.

I can tell you with a bit of certainty that fires on board planes are more common than hijacking/terrorists.

sopretty

kippy wrote: »

You see, without knowing the full facts of this incident (which we never will if the search is given up on, as speculated by an earlier poster) we'll never know why the transponder was inactive. (Granted even if the plane is found that may not be known anyway)
So speculating that the issues here are down to human interference without knowing the full facts helps no one.

I can tell you with a bit of certainty that fires on board planes are more common than hijacking/terrorists.

Fires on board vanishing planes which continue to fly for 7 hours? How many of them do you know of?

Mountainsandh

Agreed that nothing can be conclusive until and if the flight data is recovered and analysed.

I can tell you with a bit of certainty that fires on board planes are more common than hijacking/terrorists

And human interference ?

Somebody posted earlier a very comprehensive pilot's view on on board fires and how they were dealt with. It pretty much explained that most fires were safely dealt with in flight. The type of fire started, and what systems were involved would also have to be taken into account (ie someone starting a fire in the toilets, or cargo fire, would have no incidence on fire risks vs independent black box risks).

I'm not sure the case is as clear cut as it is implied here.

Thankfully from bits and pieces I have read on line (linked to some earlier on this thread, a bit late to fetch post now), the idea of amended black boxes is already out there, and may be considered in light of new events. Maybe with pressure from the "outside".

I have not seen safety risks mentioned in all the documents I read on line, only that it would be costly, and that pilots associations were against it (in the US at least).

For example this link, which has very interesting points on upgrades (the current, recommended upgrades), has a detailed section on RIPS (Independent Power Supply), and using the most reliable bus for the recorder ; the perspective however is not that the recorder may set fire to the plane, more that a malfunction or accidental action may switch off power supply to the recorder. As regards safety of the equipment, it (the whole report) seems to imply that it's up to manufacturers to do their job (they give out that the time frame is too short or something).

This link also shows how reluctant crew are to having their conversations recorded, this comes up in the discussion on how long the recording time should be for cockpit conversations. Privacy issues are mentioned.

The subject of ground recording equipment is touched upon, and quickly dismissed because of operational issues (could data be recorded and interpreted worldwide), and accessibility issues (would countries refuse to surrender data). In my opinion these can be addressed (and judging by other pages on line I am not the only one to think that).

http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/rulemaking/recently_published/media/23532.DOC

Now, apologies if it's too long for some, and I have to go to bed.



TL;DR : link has some interesting stuff about upgrades to FDR CVR.

wil

Duiske wrote: »

I don't think so. My own guess at how this ping was located is that it was first picked up by a Chinese submarine, which then directed a Chinese ship to the area to take the credit. Was reading a piece last week by an ex US itelligence guy who said he had no doubts that both US and Chinese subs are involved in this search. Both countries are highly unlikely to admit this as they never give locations for their subs. Far from showcasing the ability of its military, i think the Chinese may be actively hiding it in this case.

I'd have my doubts about this also. At least the chance element.
But it would take a herd of subs working flat out for the last month to accidentally come across the pinger far off the search zone.
Range is only a coupe of km and subs are not that fast.

Yes subs are undoubted involved but acting on other info.
I'd suspect there is more satellite or radar information on the Chinese military side that hasn't been published.
Or they may be putting better maths and modelling on the Inmarsat data.

Mountainsandh

wil wrote: »

I'd have my doubts about this also. At least the chance element.
But it would take a herd of subs working flat out for the last month to accidentally come across the pinger far off the search zone.
Range is only a coupe of km and subs are not that fast.

Yes subs are undoubted involved but acting on other info.
I'd suspect there is more satellite or radar information on the Chinese military side that hasn't been published.
Or they may be putting better maths and modelling on the Inmarsat data.

Just back to say xinhua are now saying the Chinese first spotted white debris in the area and later the ship recorded signal. It's not the timeline we read earlier but anyway... Sigh.

Thrill

CCTV: Chinese vessel hears ping for second day in a row, no confirmation it's Flight 370

kippy

sopretty wrote: »

Fires on board vanishing planes which continue to fly for 7 hours? How many of them do you know of?

I dont get the relevance of your point?

Wanderer2010

kippy wrote: »

I dont get the relevance of your point?

I think sopretty is trying to say that it would be extremely unlikely that a fire of such sudden magnitude would be so devastating as to stop the pilot or co pilot from radioing a distress signal, to stop all passengers and crew panicking and sending texts and calls to loved ones, and then incapacitate everyone to such an extent that the plane continued on its merry way for another 7 hours before hitting the ocean.

Plus a fire doesnt explain why the transponder was switched off BEFORE Mh370 lost contact..

Sam Russell

SNAKEDOC wrote: »

The bond movie you refer to is thunderball not doctor No.

Of course it was, just checking you were paying attention at the back.:D

Mountainsandh

kippy wrote: »

I dont get the relevance of your point?

The fact the plane was still flying 7 hours later pretty much rules out fire as the cause of the crash (not fully, but pretty much).

So that leaves other malfunctions, or human interference. It narrows down the possibilities a bit I guess.

Happyman42

wil wrote: »

I'd have my doubts about this also. At least the chance element.
But it would take a herd of subs working flat out for the last month to accidentally come across the pinger far off the search zone.
Range is only a coupe of km and subs are not that fast.

Yes subs are undoubted involved but acting on other info.
I'd suspect there is more satellite or radar information on the Chinese military side that hasn't been published.
Or they may be putting better maths and modelling on the Inmarsat data.

Wonder is it possible they could they be listening to some type of sub, working the area?
Heard an 'expert' on the telly saying that the signals could be coming from any number of things that broadcast on or near this frequency, geo equipment, old kit, even sea life can send confusing signals. (according to the 'expert' anyhow)

wil

With 2 acoustic pings being heard over 300 km apart by different agenices, makes it a bit concerning - what might they be chasing?
Would a sub put out a 37.5kHz test pulse for any reason? calibration, subterfuge, accidental?
Anything else gone missing in the last month?
Is this freq exclusive to aircraft black boxes?
Is some marine life mimicing.
Faulty equipment or natural noise?

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

I think sopretty is trying to say that it would be extremely unlikely that a fire of such sudden magnitude would be so devastating as to stop the pilot or co pilot from radioing a distress signal, to stop all passengers and crew panicking and sending texts and calls to loved ones, and then incapacitate everyone to such an extent that the plane continued on its merry way for another 7 hours before hitting the ocean.

Plus a fire doesnt explain why the transponder was switched off BEFORE Mh370 lost contact..

I'd still question the timing for anything, simple things such as ATC transcript took weeks to be corrected.

A small fire, confusion, pulling breakers, entering strategic emergency waypoints while under duress, succumbing to invisible odourless carbon monoxide - all seems possible.

Wouldn't be surprised if could all end up being as simple as an innocuous cup of coffee spilt on a console that cascaded through a series of escalating events.

kippy

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

I think sopretty is trying to say that it would be extremely unlikely that a fire of such sudden magnitude would be so devastating as to stop the pilot or co pilot from radioing a distress signal, to stop all passengers and crew panicking and sending texts and calls to loved ones, and then incapacitate everyone to such an extent that the plane continued on its merry way for another 7 hours before hitting the ocean.

Plus a fire doesnt explain why the transponder was switched off BEFORE Mh370 lost contact..

Not relevant to the point I was making tbh.

kippy

Mountainsandh wrote: »

The fact the plane was still flying 7 hours later pretty much rules out fire as the cause of the crash (not fully, but pretty much).

So that leaves other malfunctions, or human interference. It narrows down the possibilities a bit I guess.

Again, not relevant to the point I was making.

SpaceTime

My concern is that the authorities may have been acting with a bit of political opportunism by misquoting ATC.

Malaysian politics is very complicated and the captain was a public supporter of the opposition.

The opposition coalition is a very inclusive, positive looking, pretty progressive outfit and definitely not extreme in any way.
The opposition leader was jailed on charges of 'sodomy' with his speech writer.

The charges are assumed to be trumped up (even if they aren't - were talking about two middle aged men... And it just shows how gay rights are non-existent in Malaysia).

His wife has basically taken over in his place and is both showing huge political leadership and campaigning for his release.

There was a very public search of the pilot's home, doubts cast using the ATC transcripts etc etc etc

While I'm not saying that there's a big conspiracy, I wouldn't put it past the powers that be to be petty enough to use it to damage a political opponent considering what they've done to the opposition party leader.

I hope that I'm wrong, but that's how it reads to me having done a bit of research on the Malaysian political system. It's really been a country that I wasn't aware of but it's now on my list of places not to go on vacation to!

Make sure you're informed about the politics before you make judgements. It's not a normal country and I have a bad sense that politics may have been entering aspects of what should be a very focused investigation.

Also, I think many countries involved don't want to reveal their military, radar and satellite capabilities (or lack of in some cases).

China is very keen to show off its abilities though!