Malaysia Airlines flight MH370-Updates and Discussion

Wanderer2010

Would it really be possible for a huge jet like MH370 to crash into the ocean 100% intact and sink to the bottom intact in one piece without a single thing floating to the surface? It sounds very unlikely and surely cushions, lifejackets and other debris from the plane would have floated to the surface by now, its been 6 weeks and not a single thing from the plane has actually been recovered. Nothing. Zero. It would make you wonder..

sopretty

Just in relation to the retention to 200+ people, 200 girls in Nigeria were taken from a Physics exam in Kenya today. Missing without trace. Al Qaeda suspected.

Just in case people report this post for not being related to the topic, it is. It is related to one theory as to motivation for terrorist activity.

lord lucan

sopretty wrote: »

Just in relation to the retention to 200+ people, 200 girls in Nigeria were taken from a Physics exam in Kenya today. Missing without trace. Al Qaeda suspected.

Just in case people report this post for not being related to the topic, it is. It is related to one theory as to motivation for terrorist activity.

It's not related whatsoever,get back on topic.

crosstownk

sopretty wrote: »

Just in relation to the retention to 200+ people, 200 girls in Nigeria were taken from a Physics exam in Kenya today. Missing without trace. Al Qaeda suspected.

Just in case people report this post for not being related to the topic, it is. It is related to one theory as to motivation for terrorist activity.

WTF? Like, W.T.F.???? How in God's name do you connect the two incidents? Delusional.

Back up your theory.

This thread has more circles than a Spyrograph.

Calina

sopretty wrote: »

Just in relation to the retention to 200+ people, 200 girls in Nigeria were taken from a Physics exam in Kenya today. Missing without trace. Al Qaeda suspected.

Just in case people report this post for not being related to the topic, it is. It is related to one theory as to motivation for terrorist activity.

I believe you have your story wrong.

200 girls were kidnapped from a physics exam in a remote part of Nigeria, not Kenya. Nigeria and Kenya are two different countries. Nigeria already has an issue with school related terrorism which has included the massacre of a number 17 year old school boys in the last few months. There is a known group involved in previous incidents and they have a clear agenda which is sharia law related. They are AL Qaeda linked but not Al Qaeda directly. There is a clear context for this kidnapping and while its scale is large, it is not unique. And it is not unlinked with murder in past cases. .

Not only that, the kidnapping was not today; it was around a week ago.

In my view, it is not on topic because the context of the two stories is very different; Nigeria already has a context of sharia imposition related violence targetting schools with at least two high profile events in the last 6 months.

MH370 is entirely different in that politically motivated violence generally makes its voice known within a period of time. We are now some six weeks on with no indication of any terrorism demands. Any context for terrorism that can be applied is entirely unclear.

There is very little evidence for what happened the Malaysian plane but such evidence as exists points to it no longer being in the air, and probably crashed somewhere south Indian Ocean.

I'd love to be wrong but I don't think it's going to happen.

sopretty

Ok, but if I suggest that the rest of you have limited brain function, possible hormonal or chemical imbalances and limited intelligence I will get banned. Well you know what! Ban me to ****! But ban the cnut who suggested anyone who questioned their view had limited intelligence and a possible case of excessive dopamine.

I've been called every possible thing under the sun on this thread and it has been tolerated by moderators who are also posters within what I presume is a close knit community.
You are the greatest shower of undereducated louts. You have a singular and limited extent of knowledge. It does not qualify the ego and arrogance displayed.

The arrogance is amusing. The strops even moreso.

'We don't know the answer to your question so we're going to criticise you for not having respect for the families'. 'We're going to walk away from this thread.' 'We (us educated ones, who don't know the answers to your question) can't be dealing with these questions.'

My ****ing arse!

You have to be the most ignorant, arrogant, egotistical, uneducated, shower of idiots, I have ever come across in a closed environment in my life.

I await my banning.

Can I just add - that you are all nutjobs and you should check out both your IQ's and your dopamine levels??

robbieVan

sopretty wrote: »

Ok, but if I suggest that the rest of you have limited brain function, possible hormonal or chemical imbalances and limited intelligence I will get banned. Well you know what! Ban me to ****! But ban the cnut who suggested anyone who questioned their view had limited intelligence and a possible case of excessive dopamine.

I've been called every possible thing under the sun on this thread and it has been tolerated by moderators who are also posters within what I presume is a close knit community.
You are the greatest shower of undereducated louts. You have a singular and limited extent of knowledge. It does not qualify the ego and arrogance displayed.

The arrogance is amusing. The strops even moreso.

'We don't know the answer to your question so we're going to criticise you for not having respect for the families'. 'We're going to walk away from this thread.' 'We (us educated ones, who don't know the answers to your question) can't be dealing with these questions.'

My ****ing arse!

You have to be the most ignorant, arrogant, egotistical, uneducated, shower of idiots, I have ever come across in a closed environment in my life.

I await my banning.

Can I just add - that you are all nutjobs and you should check out both your IQ's and your dopamine levels??

bye bye, please come back when it's found in the ocean so we can all laugh at your pathetic self, enjoy your tinfoil hat, ciao

lord lucan

sopretty wrote: »

I await my banning.

I'll duly oblige,one month off for your trouble.

lord lucan

robbieVan wrote: »

bye bye, please come back when it's found in the ocean so we can all laugh at your pathetic self, enjoy your tinfoil hat, ciao

Cut it out.

seal57

It's amazing how people can react when they have a hard time understanding what did or did not happen and have nothing to go on. All that is known is a plane disappeared. That is it.

Family members of the missing passengers officially asked the Malaysian govt today to either confirm or deny the planes existence in Kandahar Afghanistan, based on some early on media reports and other information that they have become aware of. Seems like a simple enough question for them (officials) to answer, no?

eatmyshorts

lord lucan wrote: »

I'll duly oblige,one month off for your trouble.

lord lucan

New rules!

From this post on,anyone posting conspiracy theories will get a weeks ban from A&A. There is a relevant forum for CT's,use it.

Anyone questioning this decision or any Mod decisions will be Infracted immediately.

This was an excellent thread with some great insight before it descended into the clusterfcuk it's become. Let's get it back on track.

Edit: Conspiracy theories include the aircraft being abducted by little green men,it being landed in some random unknown airfield or been taken out by US/Korean/Japanese or some other military power. For now the common consensus is that the aircraft has been lost at sea.

Aircraft & Aviation Mod Team.

Jack1985

Thank you Lord Lucan.

seal57

lord lucan wrote: »

New rules!

From this post on,anyone posting conspiracy theories will get a weeks ban from A&A. There is a relevant forum for CT's,use it.

Anyone questioning this decision or any Mod decisions will be Infracted immediately.

This was an excellent thread with some great insight before it descended into the clusterfcuk it's become. Let's get it back on track.

Edit: Conspiracy theories include the aircraft being abducted by little green men,it being landed in some random unknown airfield or been taken out by US/Korean/Japanese or some other military power. For now the common consensus is that the aircraft has been lost at sea.

Aircraft & Aviation Mod Team.

Not sure where the common consensus comes from. As I continue to say, there is not one shred of evidence the plane is in the ocean, or for that matter land. Everything on this entire post is nothing but speculation and therefore only a supposed theory or opinion.

I do think the authorities do owe the families a response to any questions they have, like is it in Kandahar Afghanistan. Its a simple yes or no question. Thats the families asking those types of questions and quite frankly, I tend believe they know a lot more than people posting here.

stuar

lord lucan wrote: »

New rules!

From this post on,anyone posting conspiracy theories will get a weeks ban from A&A. There is a relevant forum for CT's,use it.

Anyone questioning this decision or any Mod decisions will be Infracted immediately.

This was an excellent thread with some great insight before it descended into the clusterfcuk it's become. Let's get it back on track.

Edit: Conspiracy theories include the aircraft being abducted by little green men,it being landed in some random unknown airfield or been taken out by US/Korean/Japanese or some other military power. For now the common consensus is that the aircraft has been lost at sea.

Aircraft & Aviation Mod Team.

:D:):rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

You didn't mention Superman or Pitbull, and maybe delete Speculation from the title.
Have a nice week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFvF4d7g0b4

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGUgZC7POrE

Now I'll flip a coin to decide whether to post or not.

lord lucan

stuar wrote: »

:D:):rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

You didn't mention Superman or Pitbull, and maybe delete Speculation from the title.
Have a nice week.

Banned from A&A for one week

pfurey101

Many thanks Lord Lucan, most of us who have at least some working knowledge in the industry (I have 31 years in Aircraft Maintenance - and 42 years in aviation) do not mind answering reasonable and intelligent questions. Unfortunately most baled out of this thread 100's of pages ago.

As for the conspiracy brigade, I see that some recently banned members are alive and well over here...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057166840

This is the actual MH370 thread in the "Conspiracy Theories" board !! There is still a lot to be found out about this tragic incident and while its quite at the moment, that is enough to get the tin foil hat chaps motoring.

Let's leave the 2 threads in their own worlds.

Cheers

pfurey101

pfurey101 wrote: »

Many thanks Lord Lucan, most of us who have at least some working knowledge in the industry (I have 31 years in Aircraft Maintenance - and 42 years in aviation) do not mind answering reasonable and intelligent questions. Unfortunately most baled out of this thread 100's of pages ago.

As for the conspiracy brigade, I see that some recently banned members are alive and well over here...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057166840

This is the actual MH370 thread in the "Conspiracy Theories" board !! There is still a lot to be found out about this tragic incident and while its quite at the moment, that is enough to get the tin foil hat chaps motoring.

Let's leave the 2 threads in their own worlds.

Cheers

I've just made a terrible mistake and read the last 3 or 4 pages of that thread!!!!

Just because people cannot fully understand what is going on nor appreciate that the unusual does occur - it does not mean that it is then a conspiracy.

Mountainsandh

Since the possibility of a hijack fits the conspiracy theory definition (I just checked : Merriam Webster : a theory that explains an event or situation as the result of a secret plan by usually powerful people or groups), then I will retreat from this thread too.

It is a surprising stance to take, hijacks do happen in aviation, and there is no evidence to the contrary, in fact the black out in communications and route changes could be construed to be evidence of it, albeit possibly by the pilot, co pilot, or crew.

Indeed the word "speculation" should be withdrawn from the title now that a decision has been made here about the fate of the plane.

Jack1985

''Speculation'' does not need to be removed from the thread, it refers to actual possible theorems related to factual information and debate into possible theorems which stem from confirmed events related to the disappearance.

To summarize the last few conspiracy (basically) pages, which can and are catered for via its own thread into a single explanation it would be, ''Conspiracy theories emerge immediately after any catastrophe occurs and conclusive information about why it did so remains unavailable.''

Thankfully this thread can now move forward with informed discussion related to confirmed facts and possible lines of inquiry which stem from that within known realms of possibility.

Nonoperational

stuar wrote: »

All speculation on my part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdoUFDUh1vI

Some nice flight sequences at the start of that. I LOVE fighter jets...

Bill G

ATSB rule out the debris found off the WA coast:

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/washed-up-debris-not-part-of-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-finds-atsb/story-fnizu68q-1226894191865

TimeToShine

Jack1985 wrote: »

''Speculation'' does not need to be removed from the thread, it refers to actual possible theorems related to factual information and debate into possible theorems which stem from confirmed events related to the disappearance.

To summarize the last few conspiracy (basically) pages, which can and are catered for via its own thread into a single explanation it would be, ''Conspiracy theories emerge immediately after any catastrophe occurs and conclusive information about why it did so remains unavailable.''

Thankfully this thread can now move forward with informed discussion related to confirmed facts and possible lines of inquiry which stem from that within known realms of possibility.

And what facts are these? I have been following the thread quite closely from the sidelines but in my view there's no real evidence which indicates that the plane is at the bottom of the ocean, which seems to be what everyone here believes. I agree that it is indeed the most likely possibility but the simple matter of the fact is that there is nothing concrete to back this up, only informed speculation.

Synode

What about the Inmarsat 'handshakes'? Or the FDR/CDR signals picked up in the ocean?

Are these not facts that point to the likelihood that it's at the bottom of the ocean?

ectoraige

Time perhaps for a recap.

Where is it?
MH370 appears to have crashed into the southern Indian Ocean at least 1,000 km west of Australia. Numerous detections of the flight recorders' locator beacons have given sufficient certainty to this that death certificates are now being issued for those lost. However, there is still a huge area to cover and most of it is unchartered waters. A search is being undertaken by the Bluefin submersible in the most area that is within it's capabilities to search. However, Bluefin is limited in depth so it cannot possibly carry out a comprehensive search. The search it has been assigned is near complete with no results. They will have to use more capable search craft to do a better search, and realistically we can expect this to take months or even years.

Why did it crash?
We don't know. There appears to have been an "event" immediately after handing off from Malaysian airspace which led to a cut-off of communications equipment. The nature of this event is unknown but it does not seem to have been immediately catastophic as some flight input appears to continued for a certain duration. The main theories are either some form of systematic failure, or a malicous act.

What sort of systems failure?
No mechanical failure/fire/explosion has been suggested that seems plausible to aviation experts due to the fact that the plane kept flying, appears to have been piloted for some period of time, but all communications were turned off. This does not mean such a scenario is impossible, history has shown that many aviation accidents are the result of a previously implausible sequence of events happening together at the worst possible time.

One example could be that a fire broke out, but that a failure of the fire suppression system meant that it was not dealt with as it should have been. It could have damaged the comms systems initially, or they may have been disabled in an attempt to isolate it. Perhaps controls were inhibited by it too meaning the pilots could not take the normal actions but did manage to make a number of turns/adjustments. The fire could then have eventually been extinguished, but with no subsequent control of the plane possible.

Any such theory though depends on a "swiss cheese" scenario where all the wrong things go wrong together, and so without evidence are invariably dismissed.

Was is a malicious act?
As a result the malicious human act does seem more plausible. Background investigations into all on-board have not given any reported leads so on the face of things, it is more likely to have been a solo run. Due to the nationalities involved though, there are natural suspicions that possible leads may not be reported to investigators, but this strays into CT territory with no foundation. We also have to be sensitive to the families left behind.

Assuming it was a sole instigator, and given the flight appears to have been controlled after the "event", suspicions naturally centre on the flight crew. It is certainly plausible that one could secure sole access to the flight deck, disable communications, and take the flight off course. This raises the next question:

How did it end up so far in the Indian Ocean?
Based on fuel calculations, it seems that MH370 may have flown until it ran out of fuel. If it was a systematic failure, it would seem that pilots had been able to try taking action for a period, but after that were incapable of any futher input. The aircraft then continued on it's heading until the fuel was exhausted.

If it was a malicious act, then perhaps it was a failed attempt that was eventually stopped by others onboard, but who were then unable to regain control. There is also the chance that it was an act of suicide. This tends to be dismissed quite quickly as it seems inconceivable to prolong it for so long, but perhaps the very intent was to disappear, never to be found again. A early depressurisation could have meant that all were unconscious long before the crash.

Will we ever know exactly what happened?
Probably not. Although we can be quite certain the area that the plane crashed in, it is still a huge expanse of very deep ocean. Should the wreckage ever be found, it will be a huge task to retrieve it. The best hope of an explanation lies with the flight recorders. The flight data recorder should have a technical record of the entire flight and should at least give us an indication of whether it was a deliberate act or an accident.However, it may not be enough to figure out what exact series of failures happened.

The cockpit voice recorder will only hold the final two hours of the flight so we will have no record of the vital period when communications were lost and the course was altered. If all onboard were incapacitated, then the only information that could be discerned from it might be from audible alerts, and distant engine noises. There's also the horrible spectre of people being alive until the end aware of their impending doom.

What can we learn?
The only real thing that is clear from this tragedy is that we do not have sufficient monitoring systems in place. The families are left without any answers, and their grief is unimaginable. In particular the family of the pilots also have to deal with the suspicions levelled against their loved ones. The state-of-the-art has not kept up with recent technologies. Whether it was a "swiss cheese" accident, or an intentional act, we need to be able to identify the failings that allowed it to happen, so that it may never happen again. We should not need to be so reliant on the recovery of the wreckage to gain some answers.

We also need to look at how investigations are managed in such a complex geo-political environment. Whole books will likely be written on this, none of which will agree with each other. The military and political considerations of the nations involved has hampered the building of a sequence of events. As a result, wild conspiracies have flourished, fuelled by a sensationalist media.

Red Pepper

Great post, thanks.

The One Doctor

ectoraige wrote: »

Time perhaps for a recap.

Where is it?
MH370 appears to have crashed into the southern Indian Ocean at least 1,000 km west of Australia. Numerous detections of the flight recorders' locator beacons have given sufficient certainty to this that death certificates are now being issued for those lost. However, there is still a huge area to cover and most of it is unchartered waters. A search is being undertaken by the Bluefin submersible in the most area that is within it's capabilities to search. However, Bluefin is limited in depth so it cannot possibly carry out a comprehensive search. The search it has been assigned is near complete with no results. They will have to use more capable search craft to do a better search, and realistically we can expect this to take months or even years.

Why did it crash?
We don't know. There appears to have been an "event" immediately after handing off from Malaysian airspace which led to a cut-off of communications equipment. The nature of this event is unknown but it does not seem to have been immediately catastophic as some flight input appears to continued for a certain duration. The main theories are either some form of systematic failure, or a malicous act.

What sort of systems failure?
No mechanical failure/fire/explosion has been suggested that seems plausible to aviation experts due to the fact that the plane kept flying, appears to have been piloted for some period of time, but all communications were turned off. This does not mean such a scenario is impossible, history has shown that many aviation accidents are the result of a previously implausible sequence of events happening together at the worst possible time.

One example could be that a fire broke out, but that a failure of the fire suppression system meant that it was not dealt with as it should have been. It could have damaged the comms systems initially, or they may have been disabled in an attempt to isolate it. Perhaps controls were inhibited by it too meaning the pilots could not take the normal actions but did manage to make a number of turns/adjustments. The fire could then have eventually been extinguished, but with no subsequent control of the plane possible.

Any such theory though depends on a "swiss cheese" scenario where all the wrong things go wrong together, and so without evidence are invariably dismissed.

Was is a malicious act?
As a result the malicious human act does seem more plausible. Background investigations into all on-board have not given any reported leads so on the face of things, it is more likely to have been a solo run. Due to the nationalities involved though, there are natural suspicions that possible leads may not be reported to investigators, but this strays into CT territory with no foundation. We also have to be sensitive to the families left behind.

Assuming it was a sole instigator, and given the flight appears to have been controlled after the "event", suspicions naturally centre on the flight crew. It is certainly plausible that one could secure sole access to the flight deck, disable communications, and take the flight off course. This raises the next question:

How did it end up so far in the Indian Ocean?
Based on fuel calculations, it seems that MH370 may have flown until it ran out of fuel. If it was a systematic failure, it would seem that pilots had been able to try taking action for a period, but after that were incapable of any futher input. The aircraft then continued on it's heading until the fuel was exhausted.

If it was a malicious act, then perhaps it was a failed attempt that was eventually stopped by others onboard, but who were then unable to regain control. There is also the chance that it was an act of suicide. This tends to be dismissed quite quickly as it seems inconceivable to prolong it for so long, but perhaps the very intent was to disappear, never to be found again. A early depressurisation could have meant that all were unconscious long before the crash.

Will we ever know exactly what happened?
Probably not. Although we can be quite certain the area that the plane crashed in, it is still a huge expanse of very deep ocean. Should the wreckage ever be found, it will be a huge task to retrieve it. The best hope of an explanation lies with the flight recorders. The flight data recorder should have a technical record of the entire flight and should at least give us an indication of whether it was a deliberate act or an accident.However, it may not be enough to figure out what exact series of failures happened.

The cockpit voice recorder will only hold the final two hours of the flight so we will have no record of the vital period when communications were lost and the course was altered. If all onboard were incapacitated, then the only information that could be discerned from it might be from audible alerts, and distant engine noises. There's also the horrible spectre of people being alive until the end aware of their impending doom.

What can we learn?
The only real thing that is clear from this tragedy is that we do not have sufficient monitoring systems in place. The families are left without any answers, and their grief is unimaginable. In particular the family of the pilots also have to deal with the suspicions levelled against their loved ones. The state-of-the-art has not kept up with recent technologies. Whether it was a "swiss cheese" accident, or an intentional act, we need to be able to identify the failings that allowed it to happen, so that it may never happen again. We should not need to be so reliant on the recovery of the wreckage to gain some answers.

We also need to look at how investigations are managed in such a complex geo-political environment. Whole books will likely be written on this, none of which will agree with each other. The military and political considerations of the nations involved has hampered the building of a sequence of events. As a result, wild conspiracies have flourished, fuelled by a sensationalist media.

Goof stuff, well thought out and useful.

K.Flyer

ectoraige wrote: »

Will we ever know exactly what happened?
Probably not.
The cockpit voice recorder will only hold the final two hours of the flight so we will have no record of the vital period when communications were lost and the course was altered. If all onboard were incapacitated, then the only information that could be discerned from it might be from audible alerts, and distant engine noises.

Sorry if I missed these questions being asked before..

So, at the end of the day, even if they do ever retrieve the voice recoder, from where ever that may be, there may be two hrs of nothing to listen to.
Regarding the flight recorder, how much data can be expected to be gleaned from it that will help understand what happened or does that only have a limited recording capacity as well.
Can either of these be "switched off" by anyone on board the plane, or are they hard wired in such a way that they cannot be accessed or disabled.

the_monkey

K.Flyer wrote: »

Sorry if I missed these questions being asked before..

So, at the end of the day, even if they do ever retrieve the voice recoder, from where ever that may be, there may be two hrs of nothing to listen to.
Regarding the flight recorder, how much data can be expected to be gleaned from it that will help understand what happened or does that only have a limited recording capacity as well.
Can either of these be "switched off" by anyone on board the plane, or are they hard wired in such a way that they cannot be accessed or disabled.

Afaik :

CVR has a buffer time of 2 hours - but the FDR will record everything control related (inputs, speed, attitude, altitude, velocity etc) to the aircraft - so this alone will be invaluable to the investigation.

Also Black Boxes cannot be switched off, the whole point of them is to be inaccessible and protected as much as possible.

Tenger

Mountainsandh wrote: »

Since the possibility of a hijack fits the conspiracy theory definition.........

Actually this incident could very well be a botched hijack attempt. I would not consider a hijacking as a 'conspiracy'.....afterall aviation history is full of hijack attempts. Botching hijacking does fit with the known facts. However at the moment finding the aircraft is the priority, then figuring out the 'why' follows.

However I would see any attempt to claim hijacking for future bomb conversion, yet to be announced ransom demands, hostage taking for some as yet unknown reason, etc to be viewed as conspiracy.

As regards common consensus......the info in the public sphere at present points to the aircraft going off-grid and turning west over the Malay pennisula, then south and finally running out of fuel over the Southern Ocean. This theory fits the currently known facts. Speculation over whether it was deliberate or a cascade of technical glitches remains.

Mod mode engaged:
Arguing that the facts we 'know' are actually false data planted by some unknown terrorist group belongs in the CT forum.
Arguing that it is a multi-national coverup belongs in the CT forum.

This thread is focused on debate over the investigation and the information being disseminated by the search operation. The search is ongoing and dynamic, just because they 'wasted' a week searching too far south doesn't mean it is a coverup, it means they were working with the info they had at the time.

Remember back to the assault on Osama Bin Laden.....some-one in that city live tweeted the event without knowing what was going on. The possibility of that aircraft being held somewhere without someone leaking this is very slight. (Not impossible but not very likely in this modern world we live in)
As Afghanistan airspace is controlled by multi-national NATO assets (along with 1000's of workers on the gorund) we can rule out Kandahar as the current location.