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Malaysia Airlines flight MH370-Updates and Discussion

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    #2072
    Calina
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Calina


    SpaceTime wrote: »
    No need for personal insults!

    I'm illustrating why the perceived risk is totally out of all proportion with actual risk by citing things that are higher risk yet perceived as totally benign in comparison.

    People's inability to properly calculate risk is how financial disasters happen too. Human nature tends to apply enormous risk loadings to the most dramatic scary looking thing : plane crash, terrorism etc

    Then we fail to risk load really high risk things that don't seem as dramatic yet damage, kill etc on huge scales.

    The avation industry is actually one of the first that began to take a really comprehensive, systematic and scientific approach to risk minimisation across everything it does.

    If similarly comprehensive risk elimimation systems were in place in areas like medical practice in hospitals, you'd find a lot of lives saved.

    I think the calculation is based not on the risk of something happening - which in a lot of cases is far lower than we perceive, or far higher in other cases - but on the impact post occurrence.

    Tiny risk, big impact?

    Precautions in proportion with impact rather than risk.


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    #2073
    A Primal Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 5,949 ✭✭✭A Primal Nut


    Also reports that they searched the pilots houses are false.


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    #2074
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,088 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    Information vacuums will invariably be filled with speculation and rumors.

    Surprising the WSJ got sucked into it.

    They aren't briefing the press properly with sufficient technical information and as a result they're losing control of the message entirely.

    This is where good public affairs communication teams are utterly invaluable. I don't mean spin doctors I mean people who can get accurate, appropriate and concise information out.

    It would avoid a lot of heartache for the families.


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    #2075
    Peppa Pig
    Registered Users Posts: 2,670 ✭✭✭Peppa Pig


    The transport minister seems to more in control than yesterday. Just need to see how he responds to the rabid pack of journalists


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    #2076
    Jack1985
    Registered Users Posts: 2,501 ✭✭✭Jack1985


    Last ACARS message confirmed at 01:07L, everything normal


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    #2077
    irishmover
    Registered Users Posts: 4,746 ✭✭✭irishmover


    Watching on CNN and struggling to understand. Static in background.


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    #2078
    Peppa Pig
    Registered Users Posts: 2,670 ✭✭✭Peppa Pig


    irishmover wrote: »
    Watching on CNN and struggling to understand. Static in background.
    Fine on Sky News


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    #2079
    kona
    Registered Users Posts: 7,525 ✭✭✭kona


    Jack1985 wrote: »
    Precisely and with all due respect this is a triple 7 with Trent 892 engines they are massive and as was the case in the Asiana crash, they would likely separate and implode

    With all due respect you don't have a technical background on aircraft so stop with your dismissing of facts on the basis of oh the engines are massive . Fact is they can run on the ground for hours after a crash.

    The a340 uses Trent engines too, Trent 500 which isn't much smaller than the 800 on the 777 in question the cores are similar , 600 is scaled down 800 core, fan diameter is only .3 of a meter smaller.

    Also the engines won't implode.


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    #2080
    irishmover
    Registered Users Posts: 4,746 ✭✭✭irishmover


    Peppa Pig wrote: »
    Fine on Sky News

    Sky News AU ain't really covering it much. On a break at the moment so yeh.. Keep the updates coming here....


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    #2081
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,088 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    irishmover wrote: »
    You made a huge number if analogies. Editing posts to add more....

    Off topic here I know...

    Off topic too but you don't respond to posts by calling a poster 'a bit nuts'. That's extremely insulting and offensive.


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    #2082
    IamtheWalrus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,075 ✭✭✭IamtheWalrus


    Is it possible it was shot down accidentally and no one's admitting it?


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    #2083
    homerjay2005
    Registered Users Posts: 29,346 ✭✭✭✭homerjay2005


    so far, it looks like practically every single "story" that has been released is false.

    the plane is missing 6 days and nobody knows one thing about this plane apart from its last ACAS transmission and last known position. everything else is a complete mystery.


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    #2084
    sopretty
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,009 ✭✭✭sopretty


    irishmover wrote: »
    Watching on CNN and struggling to understand. Static in background.
    It's the sound of the bloomin cameras flashing. Fierce annoying.


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    #2085
    irishmover
    Registered Users Posts: 4,746 ✭✭✭irishmover


    SpaceTime wrote: »
    Off topic too but you don't respond to posts by calling a poster 'a bit nuts'. That's extremely insulting and offensive.

    Well maybe I found it a bit offensive that you used a stupid amount of analogies, then returned to said post to add more analogies to justify how silly of a post I made. (Your analogies had no clever thought in them by the way, pretty silly and felt to be chasing likes IMO).

    Anyway it was a tongue in cheek comment, if you found 'a but nuts' to be extremely offensive on an Internet forum you've got a big up hill battle ahead.


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    #2086
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,088 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    kona wrote: »
    With all due respect you don't have a technical background on aircraft so stop with your dismissing of facts on the basis of oh the engines are massive . Fact is they can run on the ground for hours after a crash.

    The a340 uses Trent engines too, Trent 600 which isn't much smaller than the 800 on the 777 in question the cores are similar , 600 is scaled down 800 core, fan diameter is only .3 of a meter smaller.

    Also the engines won't implode.

    Seems the rumours of data sent back to RR are false though regardless.

    I just wish the investigating team leaders would issue a proper and comprehensive technical briefing of what's known.


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    #2087
    irishmover
    Registered Users Posts: 4,746 ✭✭✭irishmover


    homerjay2005 wrote: »
    so far, it looks like practically every single "story" that has been released is false.

    the plane is missing 6 days and nobody knows one thing about this plane apart from its last ACAS transmission and last known position. everything else is a complete mystery.

    Yeh I suppose as the days go on, yet another story of what might have happened being false it starts to get a bit boring..

    Looking like we won't have any answers for a long time.


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    #2088
    sopretty
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,009 ✭✭✭sopretty


    homerjay2005 wrote: »
    so far, it looks like practically every single "story" that has been released is false.

    the plane is missing 6 days and nobody knows one thing about this plane apart from its last ACAS transmission and last known position. everything else is a complete mystery.

    While they're saying that every supposed story is inaccurate, they have actually admitted that they have had to withhold information due to the various agencies involved. Since they have released pretty much ZERO information, one might assume that they are still withholding information!


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    #2089
    brandon_flowers
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,657 ✭✭✭brandon_flowers


    SpaceTime wrote: »
    Seems the rumours of data sent back to RR are false though regardless.

    I just wish the investigating team leaders would issue a proper and comprehensive technical briefing of what's known.

    Maybe I am the only one but I think they have released everything confirmed that they do know. The have a confirmed last known position, they have searched around it and didn't find anything. All they can do is widen the search.

    Primary radar info is not confirmed info, it doesn't tell them if it is MH370.

    Edit: And it is chillingly reassuring with all the spying going on in the world that something can go missing like this.


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    #2090
    kona
    Registered Users Posts: 7,525 ✭✭✭kona


    SpaceTime wrote: »
    Seems the rumours of data sent back to RR are false though regardless.

    I just wish the investigating team leaders would issue a proper and comprehensive technical briefing of what's known.

    I wouldn't believe a thing until the NTSB make a statement or release new info. Just like this thread and no disrespect to anybody but the people with the relative qualifications are keeping quiet.
    Everything else is descending into a circuis. its already a very embarrassing incident for aviation from all angles.

    Don't forget that there could be a unknown fault that brought down this 777, there could be a major issue that could affect the entire fleet.


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    #2091
    MadYaker
    Registered Users Posts: 12,222 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    I don't understand peoples need to speculate and spout bullsh!t in the absence of any real info. They haven't found anything yet. They are still looking. Nothing is going to change until they find something, thats it.


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    #2092
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,088 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    They're not really briefing in the way that the media expect these days though.

    The information is coming out in dribs and drabs and the press conferences aren't very informative.

    You need a proper presentation recapping the facts known to date (probably with graphical diagrams etc) then add any new information and have some people who really know what's going on to brief - that's where a US or major European agency almost always has a trained communications expert.

    Malaysian authorities to date have given us high ranking officials with loads of military insignia. That's not going to help. The media wants info from someone used to handling a press conference and who knows what they're talking about.

    Thankfully, it's not something they've had to handle before so they've little experience of communicating this kind of information.

    The reality is that people spend years learning how to be communication officers. They're either PR people with communications qualifications or journalists by background and usually also have deep knowledge of the organisation they're representing.

    Speculation is running wild without all that.


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    #2093
    666bxg
    Registered Users Posts: 290 ✭✭666bxg


    MadYaker wrote: »
    I don't understand peoples need to speculate and spout bullsh!t in the absence of any real info. They haven't found anything yet. They are still looking. Nothing is going to change until they find something, thats it.

    Agreed


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    #2094
    sopretty
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,009 ✭✭✭sopretty


    He's pretty much refusing to answer anything now! Can't hear what questions the journos are asking, but he's refusing to answer them. Then he said, that if he was to speculate further, he would give false hope to the relatives, which would be irresponsible. Which suggests, his speculation, is that they might be alive?


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    #2095
    666bxg
    Registered Users Posts: 290 ✭✭666bxg


    sopretty wrote: »
    He's pretty much refusing to answer anything now! Can't hear what questions the journos are asking, but he's refusing to answer them. Then he said, that if he was to speculate further, he would give false hope to the relatives, which would be irresponsible. Which suggests, his speculation, is that they might be alive?

    The question asked was what areas are being searched. He outlined the two main areas and a further question was asked if this area was to be expanded further


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    #2096
    Jack1985
    Registered Users Posts: 2,501 ✭✭✭Jack1985


    kona wrote: »
    With all due respect you don't have a technical background on aircraft so stop with your dismissing of facts on the basis of oh the engines are massive . Fact is they can run on the ground for hours after a crash.

    The a340 uses Trent engines too, Trent 500 which isn't much smaller than the 800 on the 777 in question the cores are similar , 600 is scaled down 800 core, fan diameter is only .3 of a meter smaller.

    Also the engines won't implode.

    I was referring to the rupturing of fan blade discs, of course they would shatter thus the engine would implode on contact with surface in nearly every hard impact, with all due respect you have no knowledge in my employment background now do you?


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    #2097
    MadYaker
    Registered Users Posts: 12,222 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    SpaceTime wrote: »
    They're not really briefing in the way that the media expect these days though.

    The information is coming out in dribs and drabs and the press conferences aren't very informative.

    You need a proper presentation recapping the facts known to date (probably with graphical diagrams etc) then add any new information and have some people who really know what's going on to brief - that's where a US or major European agency almost always has a trained communications expert.

    Malaysian authorities to date have given us high ranking officials with loads of military insignia. That's not going to help. The media wants info from someone used to handling a press conference and who knows what they're talking about.

    Thankfully, it's not something they've had to handle before so they've little experience of communicating this kind of information.

    The reality is that people spend years learning how to be communication officers. They're either PR people with communications qualifications or journalists by background and usually also have deep knowledge of the organisation they're representing.

    Speculation is running wild without all that.

    The reason we're not getting any of this is because there is nothing to say in a fúcking press conference. The plane is missing, they are looking for it and thats about it really. There aren't going to be any meaningful developments until they find something.


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    #2098
    sopretty
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,009 ✭✭✭sopretty


    666bxg wrote: »
    The question asked was what areas are being searched. He outlined the two main areas and a further question was asked if this area was to be expanded further

    Thanks for that. Do you know what question he was asked before replying that the information was too sensitive for him to comment on?


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    #2099
    SpaceTime
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,088 ✭✭✭SpaceTime


    MadYaker wrote: »
    The reason we're not getting any of this is because there is nothing to say in a fúcking press conference. The plane is missing, they are looking for it and thats about it really. There aren't going to be any meaningful developments until they find something.

    Then you just hold a briefing to recap the facts to date in a very calm, authoritative way.

    They're holding too many press conferences too. If you've no information you don't put officials with no media experience out to face a press grilling about information they don't have.

    You send your brass necked head of communications out to do a recap.

    The fact that these guys are nervous is coming across as adding fuel to conspiracy theories. They're short / nervous because they're not used to crisis media briefings and being asked totally stupid questions about rumours.


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    #2100
    dodzy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,022 ✭✭✭✭dodzy


    MadYaker wrote: »
    I don't understand peoples need to speculate and spout bullsh!t in the absence of any real info. They haven't found anything yet. They are still looking. Nothing is going to change until they find something, thats it.
    Utter crap.

    There are plenty of knowledgeable folk on this forum and in the absence of any solid information, all you have is speculation. And in this instance, I can think of no better people to get possible scenarios / likely outcomes from than skilled pilots / engineers that take time to post on this forum. Personally, I find all this intriguing. ACARS - didn't have a clue what it was up until a few days ago. But I know now. Fascinating stuff.


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    #2101
    pfurey101
    Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭pfurey101


    kona wrote: »
    I wouldn't believe a thing until the NTSB make a statement or release new info. Just like this thread and no disrespect to anybody but the people with the relative qualifications are keeping quiet.
    Everything else is descending into a circuis. its already a very embarrassing incident for aviation from all angles.

    Don't forget that there could be a unknown fault that brought down this 777, there could be a major issue that could affect the entire fleet.

    And the reason why the people with the relative qualifications are keeping quite is because we all learn from day 1 on the job, that an incident speculation is irrelevant and in most cases harmful to those relatives left behind and to those work colleagues associated with the incident.

    No one ever knows what happens until determined by the relevant authorities.

    FWIW I worked 31 years in aviation maintenance.


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