Malaysia Airlines flight MH370-Updates and Discussion

Grandpa Hassan

horsefarm wrote: »

Fascinating thread on a very tragic situation. I've read most pages but must admit there are a few pages I've missed, so apologies if this has been mentioned before...
I'm not buying the hijacking theory. Surely if there were 3-4 hijackers there would be enough brave souls in the remaining 235 people to try to overpower them or communicate for help?

I'm expecting it to turn out to be a crash caused by unconsciousness, and the plane flew on for a while. I believe it will eventually be found. I hope nobody suffered

If it was hijacked, and the transponder and radio turned off (which as I understand happened 15 minutes or so apart, suggesting they were turned off manually), it may have been on its way to land somewhere else. And then passengers could have overpowered the hijackers like what happened in Pittsburgh(?) on 9/11, and the plane crashed. If it was over the middle of the ocean, there would have been no way for a passenger to make a call, and no-one might have known how to use the radio etc if the pilot was incapacitated

That is the theory I think is the most likely

Mint Sauce

Thrill wrote: »

http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/dark-site.html

Was just about to post that link, some interesting reading there.

Just read on the BBC that they are now searching west into the Indian Ocean, so they are obviously taking this new information seriously, even if they are not confirming the findings.

So what sineroeos are we looking at now? Plane on auto pilot after sudden de pressurisation, terrorism/hijake, or burning fuel to attempt a re land at Kuala Lumpur....

crazygeryy

Flying towards the andamann islands. The story gets better and better.

Mint Sauce

crazygeryy wrote: »

Flying towards the andamann islands. The story gets better and better.

Just about to post that as well.


http://www.lbc.co.uk/missing-plane-flown-towards-andaman-islands-87383

Mumha

Mint Sauce wrote: »

Was just about to post that link, some interesting reading there.

Just read on the BBC that they are now searching west into the Indian Ocean, so they are obviously taking this new information seriously, even if they are not confirming the findings.

So what sineroeos are we looking at now? Plane on auto pilot after sudden de pressurisation, terrorism/hijake, or burning fuel to attempt a re land at Kuala Lumpur....

According to the lady interviewed by Piers Morgan in this, the ping data had been handed over by the Malaysians to the Americans, "in the last 24 hours". That's outrageous if true, that it took until Wednesday for that to happen.

Happyman42

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

If it was hijacked, and the transponder and radio turned off (which as I understand happened 15 minutes or so apart, suggesting they were turned off manually), it may have been on its way to land somewhere else. And then passengers could have overpowered the hijackers like what happened in Pittsburgh(?) on 9/11, and the plane crashed. If it was over the middle of the ocean, there would have been no way for a passenger to make a call, and no-one might have known how to use the radio etc if the pilot was incapacitated

That is the theory I think is the most likely

Th problem with a 'hijack' is that it doesn't explain the lack of a distress call. Unless it was carried out by one of the pilots, working with somebody in the passenger section.
The equipment being turned off suggests one of the crew was 'rogue' to me.

knucklehead6

Happyman42 wrote: »

Th problem with a 'hijack' is that it doesn't explain the lack of a distress call. Unless it was carried out by one of the pilots, working with somebody in the passenger section.
The equipment being turned off suggests one of the crew was 'rogue' to me.

Not necessarily. IF it was a hijacking and IF there was a guy with flying experience on board it's quite possible that they gained access to the cockpit, and were able to take over the aircraft.

A Primal Nut

The latest reports from Reuters suggests that the plane was deliberately following waypoints as you would expect if an experienced pilot was in charge. I suppose Autopilot could follow waypoints (anyone know?) but the fact that it was not trying to return to Kuala Lumpur suggests it's not that. The hypoxia theory is looking less likely if this is true.

They didn't crash it immediately into the sea either, so it wasn't a straightforward suicide mission to kill everyone on board.

Remember, recently an Ethiopian hijacked a plane and flew to Switzerland to escape his country? I wonder if this is something similar (not involving Ethiopia or Switzerland obviously) but perhaps the passengers overpowered them and the plane ended up crashing?

Happyman42

knucklehead6 wrote: »

Not necessarily. IF it was a hijacking and IF there was a guy with flying experience on board it's quite possible that they gained access to the cockpit, and were able to take over the aircraft.

Maybe, no expert by any stretch of the imagination but I am finding it hard to imagine that scenario, it would take time and some effort to overpower two crew.

Can the other crew (Stewards) contact the ground btw?

homerjay2005

press conference in 5 minutes, hopefully it will clear up all this.

has the phones ringing out been denied or confirmed? if they are true, it could suggest that the plane was landed, no way would phones survive an impact, especially in water.

Grandpa Hassan

Happyman42 wrote: »

Th problem with a 'hijack' is that it doesn't explain the lack of a distress call. Unless it was carried out by one of the pilots, working with somebody in the passenger section.
The equipment being turned off suggests one of the crew was 'rogue' to me.

I agree. I think a hijacking with one of the crew involved. Which ultimately went wrong (unless the plane has indeed landed somewhere)

knucklehead6

Happyman42 wrote: »

Maybe, no expert by any stretch of the imagination but I am finding it hard to imagine that scenario, it would take time and some effort to overpower two crew.

Can the other crew (Stewards) contact the ground btw?

[hypothetical]
2 or 3 guys go towards the cockpit with a knife held to the chief pursers throat, the flight crew give access to the cockpit because they reckon that to co operate with these lads will be safer, they're probably just looking for asylum. 2 quick throat slits later and the flight crew are dead.
[/hypothetical]

Communications between the plane and ground could probably be cut off from the cockpit too, so while the cabin crew might have the facility to communicate with the ground, it's possible that in a hijack situation it was disabled.


But we are straying into total hypotheticals here.

A Primal Nut

They are no longer saying "it's not true" but instead that the "data is not verified". Can't they just say they are following these ideas as a lead, but they aren't 100% sure.

Grandpa Hassan

The US think it is a deliberate act, as the 2 communication systems were turned off at different times. The Professional Pilots Rumour Network is talking about the runway at Car Nicobar, in the Nicoban islands, being long enough for it to land. And lightly populated enough that if it landed at 4am, with the help of some friendly locals, could be refuelled and headed somewhere else (such as Somalia) pretty quickly with no-one noticing.

Or else something went wrong with that plan (eg hijackers overpowered) and the plane fell into the sea

homerjay2005

Snippets from Presser -

• Now entering 7th day 57 ships and 47 aircraft, 13 countries involved.
  
• Alot of media speculation about the plane flying - the investigation team will not release information until it has been properly investigaged, especially from un named officials.
  
• since wednesday, the international team has give more detailed information, but there is nothing to confirm. the aircraft is still missing and the search area is widened.
  
• we are pushing further east into the China sea and west into the indian ocean.
  
• this is not a normal investigation. yesterday we rejected engine data reports, we checked again with boeing and they said the reports were not true.
  
• jet fuel found 16NM from last known site, but not believed to be from MH370

Neeson

Mister Jingles wrote: »

12 years old give or take ?

What would happen if it flew into smog? There would be lots of smog over in them places with the high populations. It could cause some damage to the engines maybe.

knucklehead6

Neeson wrote: »

What would happen if it flew into smog? There would be lots of smog over in them places with the high populations. It could cause some damage to the engines maybe.

The engines would be well capable of dealing with it. And even if the engines had failed the crew should still have had time to report the problems, send a mayday etc...

pclancy

I've never seen anything like this amount of traffic in Aviation & Aircraft before, yep its been a turbulent ride for many visitors and regulars alike, and the "Report Post" batphone has been off the hook...so thanks now for finding some kind of equilibrium. Look, people are obviously frustrated at the lack of info, so the mind wanders....

Just remember what you're reading here is obviously fact mixed with speculation and sprinkled with hype, so its up to you to make your own mind up on whats real. So many conflicting stories out there at the moment.

Here's hoping the families can get some closure soon. Also for everyone in the industry, I bet there are a lot of professional crew up there still doing their day jobs flying us around, in the back of their heads wondering WTF happened to their colleagues.

Lord Trollington

knucklehead6 wrote: »

[hypothetical]
2 or 3 guys go towards the cockpit with a knife held to the chief pursers throat, the flight crew give access to the cockpit because they reckon that to co operate with these lads will be safer, they're probably just looking for asylum. 2 quick throat slits later and the flight crew are dead.
[/hypothetical]

Communications between the plane and ground could probably be cut off from the cockpit too, so while the cabin crew might have the facility to communicate with the ground, it's possible that in a hijack situation it was disabled.


But we are straying into total hypotheticals here.

Very very unlikely that a Captain would permit anyone to the flight deck under such circumstances.

Tenger

knucklehead6 wrote: »

[hypothetical]
2 or 3 guys go towards the cockpit with a knife held to the chief pursers throat, the flight crew give access to the cockpit because they reckon that to co operate with these lads will be safer, they're probably just looking for asylum. 2 quick throat slits later and the flight crew are dead.
[/hypothetical]......

Cockpit access protocol, security camera and post 9/11 SOPs should prevent that scenario.


Looking at the press conference.....I would agree that info from 'un-named officials' can not be given full confidence. Transport minister says that Rolls-Royce say no engine data has been received. However if the data is unreliable why expand the search? The Malay authorities are not being fully transparent with the information that they have.

I assume the turn back theory is based on the initial radar blip on the West coast that was mentioned very early in the investigation? This unverified engine ping supports this theory.



On another note I read an interesting article about how China is using this SAR operation as a way to should its military muscle to its South China Sea neighbours. Satellite, warships, naval aviation, etc

Maximus Alexander

Tenger wrote: »

Looking at the press conference.....I would agree that info from 'un-named officials' can not be given full confidence. Transport minister says that Rolls-Royce say no engine data has been received. However if the data is unreliable why expand the search? The Malay authorities are not being fully transparent with the information that they have.

I assume the turn back theory is based on the initial radar blip on the West coast that was mentioned very early in the investigation? This unverified engine ping supports this theory.

My interpretation was that they flat out deny that any actual data was sent about the engines, and that the satellite pings are unconfirmed, but they are not saying it is untrue.

Lord Trollington

Other than the Malay officials is anyone else carrying out an investigation into all this?

Tigerandahalf

There is an article in the independent that says sources believe the plane was being navigated through various navigation waypoints that are named in the article.
What data is giving them this conclusion I dont know. The information known to the authorities is still only being drip fed out with leads being put forward (from sources that dont have authorisation) and then the authorities come out a day later and conflict this information.

relaxed

Grandpa Hassan wrote: »

The US think it is a deliberate act, as the 2 communication systems were turned off at different times. The Professional Pilots Rumour Network is talking about the runway at Car Nicobar, in the Nicoban islands, being long enough for it to land. And lightly populated enough that if it landed at 4am, with the help of some friendly locals, could be refuelled and headed somewhere else (such as Somalia) pretty quickly with no-one noticing.

Or else something went wrong with that plan (eg hijackers overpowered) and the plane fell into the sea

The above scenario of refuelling and heading on to somewhere like Somalia is straight out of Hollywood and very far fetched.

Maximus Alexander

relaxed wrote: »

The above scenario of refuelling and heading on to somewhere like Somalia is straight out of Hollywood and very far fetched.

While I agree with you, sometimes reality is stranger than fiction. I wouldn't completely discount anything (bar aliens) at this point - though my thought is that the explanation will turn out to be rather mundane, a 'regular' tragedy, with the plane just having gone down somewhere unexpected.

Tigerandahalf

India I think has a naval base on the Andaman Islands and would have radar so the plane should have been picked up if it approached those islands.
I see Rolls Royce the engine manufacturer saying that they have passed info to the authorities but it cannot be made public.
We still have little facts about the whole investigation.

cml387

Is it possible that there is a method of tracking aircraft by satellite that is not known to the general public (hence to hijackers)?

Post 9/11 there were a lot of procedures put in place and it's certain that not all are generally known.

jasonb

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

The information known to the authorities is still only being drip fed out with leads being put forward (from sources that dont have authorisation) and then the authorities come out a day later and conflict this information.

That, in a nutshell, describes the last week...

J.

Grandpa Hassan

More unofficial sources, but an interesting read

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/14/us-malaysia-airlines-radar-exclusive-idUSBREA2D0DG20140314

Gator

Good infographic from Bloomberg re missing planes post ww2

http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2014-03-13/vanishing-planes-mapped-since-1948.html