Football ranking table

DDC1990

Well there is only an 8 point gap between Galway and Mayo while there is nearly a 19 point gap between Kerry and Clare. That would be a good amount of it.

I still expected the model to show Mayo with a 2/3 point advantage but I don't know the ins and outs of it.

Edit: Also Laoisman, Kerry are away to Clare not at home. We had them at home last year.

Boom__Boom

DDC1990 wrote: »

Well there is only an 8 point gap between Galway and Mayo while there is nearly a 19 point gap between Kerry and Clare. That would be a good amount of it.

I still expected the model to show Mayo with a 2/3 point advantage but I don't know the ins and outs of it.

Edit: Also Laoisman, Kerry are away to Clare not at home. We had them at home last year.

Clare from what I know seem to be one of those teams that definitely perform better at home.

Last time Kerry played Clare in Ennis there was only 4 points in it.

Also on Laois Longford I would be putting the new found Laois goal threat down to Longford's defence more than Laois's attack - Longford conceded 3 goals in 2 different games in Division 3 this year, which means that after the Laois game they have conceded 3 or more goals in 3 games this year - out of a total of 8 played.

Bonniedog

Predicting the spread on games like Dublin/Carlow or Kerry/Clare is minefield. There is only going to be one winner so question is when they empty the bench do they turn the screw or lower the gears?

With competition for places you would imagine that Carlow and Clare be in for a long day, but I wouldn't be betting on any big margin.

theoneeyedman

DDC1990 wrote: »

Well there is only an 8 point gap between Galway and Mayo while there is nearly a 19 point gap between Kerry and Clare. That would be a good amount of it.

I still expected the model to show Mayo with a 2/3 point advantage but I don't know the ins and outs of it.

Edit: Also Laoisman, Kerry are away to Clare not at home. We had them at home last year.

OK mea culpa, I misread that as a 9 point gap not a 19 point one.
Point still kinda stands tho, I'd imagine these models should take the opinion out of it, does an 8 point gap between Galway Mayo really equate to a draw without adding opinion and insight into the prediction? Imo it will probably be a close game, but that's just an opinion, and given its in the salthill wind tunnel, it might as easy be a ten point win fir either side, especially say if Mayo (or indeed Galway) get the gale and make good use it in the first half, and rugby tackle their way through the second half as they are (both) wont to do at times.

Jayop

I don't think opinion comes into it. According to the predictions, Kerry at home, Mayo away, galway beat Mayo last year, bigger differences between the teams in ranking points.

I think it's perfectly reasonable albeit I don't see galway getting a draw.

laoisman11

theoneeyedman wrote: »

A question about the prediction model.
Kerry Clare is predicted as a 10 point kerry win. Mayo Galway is predicted as a draw.
The points table hasn't that different a gap from kerry /Clare and Galway /Mayo. I'm not questioning the predictions, just how they came to such different results with similar inputs on the face of it, (except that kerry and Galway are at home).

Is there another model running behind the points table, or is there a 'bias' given that Galway beat Mayo recently /traditional rivalry and that a lay man would expect kerry to trounce Clare normally.

(Top work Laoisman though, not poo-pooing it at all)

There are effectively 2 models running - the one that is posted on boards that gives the ranking and ratings which is designed to ensure that the All-Ireland winner is (almost always!) the team that finishes the championship in number 1 position.

The second one is optimised for the accuracy of the prediction model, and uses different values for bonus point wins, relative value of championship vs league, etc. When I compare the two, the ratings are different even if the overall rankings appear quite similar. It also takes into account past results between the 2 teams concerned, so that is why we often see different prediction outputs at identical rating differences.

laoisman11

DDC1990 wrote: »

Well there is only an 8 point gap between Galway and Mayo while there is nearly a 19 point gap between Kerry and Clare. That would be a good amount of it.

I still expected the model to show Mayo with a 2/3 point advantage but I don't know the ins and outs of it.

Edit: Also Laoisman, Kerry are away to Clare not at home. We had them at home last year.

Well spotted for the Clare home venue, cheers.

Updated prediction: Kerry by 7

Jayop

Kerry winning by 7 more points than Mayo will sounds like a fair assessment.

laoisman11

• Down, Kildare (bonus point win) and Meath (also bonus point win) gained 2.66, 1.51 and 1.17 rating points respectively.
• Offaly, despite not playing, get bumped up 2 places due to the losses incurred by Laois and Louth.
• No rating points exchanged in the Carlow-Dublin game due to the large rating difference between the teams

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | = | Mayo | 101.18 | 0.00
4 | = | Donegal | 97.26 | 0.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 95.34 | 0.00
6 | = | Galway | 93.21 | 0.00
7 | = | Monaghan | 91.24 | 0.00
8 | ▲ 2 | Kildare | 89.04 | 1.51
9 | = | Meath | 88.92 | 1.17
10 | ▼ 2 | Tipperary | 88.91 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 85.42 | 0.00
12 | = | Cavan | 85.24 | 0.00
13 | = | Westmeath | 84.38 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 84.05 | 0.00
15 | = | Roscommon | 83.09 | 0.00
16 | ▲ 3 | Down | 80.65 | 2.66
17 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
18 | = | Fermanagh | 78.89 | 0.00
19 | ▼ 3 | Armagh | 76.64 | -2.66
20 | ▲ 2 | Offaly | 76.23 | 0.00
21 | ▼ | Laois | 76.06 | -1.51
22 | ▲ | Sligo | 75.68 | 0.00
23 | ▼ 2 | Louth | 75.48 | -1.17
24 | = | Longford | 71.44 | 0.00
25 | = | Carlow | 71.42 | 0.00
26 | = | Antrim | 70.86 | 0.00
27 | = | Limerick | 69.46 | 0.00
28 | = | Wexford | 67.18 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 67.05 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.86 | 0.00

lanomist

Great thread, only came across it today. Thanks.

laoisman11

• Galway gain 3.99 rating points and move back into the top 4 after an almost 1 year absence
• Mayo slide to 5th, the lowest they have been since Galway beat them last year
• Cork defied the critics and had a good win (any win is a good win!) over Tipperary and gained 3.10 rating points
• Monaghan edge closer to the top 6 while Cavan drop to 15th after the game in Breffni
• A minor exchange of rating points in the Offaly – Westmeath game (1.03), they have to do it all again this weekend
• No rating points were exchanged in the Clare – Kerry meeting, even if Clare do move up 2 places due to the downward movement of teams ahead of them

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Donegal | 97.26 | 0.00
4 | ▲ 2 | Galway | 97.20 | 3.99
5 | ▼ 2 | Mayo | 97.19 | -3.99
6 | ▼ | Tyrone | 95.34 | 0.00
7 | = | Monaghan | 93.64 | 2.40
8 | = | Kildare | 89.04 | 0.00
9 | = | Meath | 88.92 | 0.00
10 | ▲ | Cork | 88.52 | 3.10
11 | ▼ | Tipperary | 85.81 | -3.10
12 | ▲ 2 | Clare | 84.05 | 0.00
13 | = | Westmeath | 83.35 | -1.03
14 | ▲ | Roscommon | 83.09 | 0.00
15 | ▼ 3 | Cavan | 82.84 | -2.40
16 | = | Down | 80.65 | 0.00
17 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
18 | = | Fermanagh | 78.89 | 0.00
19 | ▲ | Offaly | 77.26 | 1.03
20 | ▼ | Armagh | 76.64 | 0.00
21 | = | Laois | 76.06 | 0.00
22 | = | Sligo | 75.68 | 0.00
23 | = | Louth | 75.48 | 0.00
24 | = | Longford | 71.44 | 0.00
25 | = | Carlow | 71.42 | 0.00
26 | = | Antrim | 70.86 | 0.00
27 | = | Limerick | 69.46 | 0.00
28 | = | Wexford | 67.18 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 67.05 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.86 | 0.00

wellpastit

laoisman11. Have you stopped putting up your models predictions? Always found them fascinating and sooo many times wished I'd followed them with some cash, uncanny how good they are

Jayop

Did them for the last round anyway.

seligehgit

wellpastit wrote: »

laoisman11. Have you stopped putting up your models predictions? Always found them fascinating and sooo many times wished I'd followed them with some cash, uncanny how good they are

I'd imagine he's just delayed, he always puts them up.

laoisman11

A bit later than I would have liked getting these out there, but work has me all over the place......

Lots of close games to look forward to this weekend (if the prediction model is to be believed!)

Meath (88.92) vs Kildare (89.04)
The 7th championship meeting between these sides in the last 10 years. Kildare won a high scoring encounter between the 2 back in February in Navan and must fancy their chances of repeating the act here. They easily accounted for Laois where they ran up an impressive total. Meath are no strangers to big totals either, raising 27 white flags against Louth. Meath also scored slightly more heavily in the league than Kildare, so another high scoring encounter could be expected here, weather permitting. The prediction model thinks that it’s going to be a close one. Prediction: Meath by 1

Westmeath (83.35, at home) vs Offaly (77.26)
Westmeath came back from the brink last weekend to earn a replay at home. Neither team set the world on fire last weekend, so Saturday’s game arrives with low expectations. Westmeath should be able to repeat last year’s one point win. Prediction: Westmeath by 2

Waterford (57.11, at home) vs Derry (79.16)
Even though there is a huge gulf between these 2 in terms of rating points, Derry should do well to be wary here, given how close Waterford were to pulling off a shock against Cork, and given Derry’s erratic nature in the qualifiers. Nevertheless, Derry should have more than enough in reserve to manage this first ever championship meeting between the sides comfortably. Prediction: Derry by 8

Louth (75.48, at home) vs Longford (71.44)
Louth will have been disappointed with their performance against Meath, and should have enough to overcome Longford who were quite poor against Laois in the preliminary round. Prediction: Louth by 3

Wicklow (55.89, at home) vs Laois (76.06)
Aughrim which sunk the dream of ‘86. That was the last time that Wicklow beat Laois and one that lives long in the memory of long-suffering Laois men and women. Laois were dire in their previous outing against Kildare while Wicklow put up a reasonable performance against Louth. Both will play in Division 4 next year but Laois still hold a strong rating points advantage. Prediction: Laois by 6

Sligo (75.68, at home) vs Antrim (70.86)
Another first ever championship meeting despite 17 years passing since the introduction of the qualifiers. Antrim won the clash between the sides in the league, but couldn’t avoid relegation to Division 4. Sligo have 2 games under their belts, overcoming the tricky Yankees before going down to Mayo; Antrim meanwhile were mauled by Donegal. Hard to see Antrim keeping interest nor motivation here, and I think that the home side will win by a lot more than what the prediction model is saying. Prediction: Sligo by 2

Roscommon (83.09, at home) vs Leitrim (67.05)
The last team to enter championship action, Roscommon should be keen to avoid disappointment of previous seasons. That being said, expectations are much lower this year. They can start the ball rolling by dispatching a Leitrim side who found it difficult to put London away. Prediction: Roscommon by 8

Tyrone (95.34, at home) vs Donegal (97.26)
The clash of the top 2 in Ulster and the winner will surely fancy their chances of going all the way. Good wins over Derry and Antrim, respectively, will have settled the nerves and the fact that both teams ran up big scores might give the impression that we could be in for an attacking game of football. Both teams are too shrewd for that and I expect plenty of containment here. Donegal to repeat their league win and overturn last year’s result at the same venue. But only just! Prediction: Donegal by 1

Jayop

Can't argue with any of the results being very likely, only maybe the scoreline in a few of them.

Laois and Donegal are the two most likely to be wrong imo but not convinced either way.

DDC1990

Jayop wrote:

Laois and Donegal are the two most likely to be wrong imo but not convinced either way.

Wicklow are a cluster**** though. Very surprised if they beat Laois.

The Meath and Donegal calls are surprising to me. I' have fancied Kildare and Tyrone.

Jayop

The Ulster game is impossible to call imo. Would think there'd be hardly anything in it. A point should win it.

OldMrBrennan83

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dxhound2005

laoisman11 wrote: »

Sligo (75.68, at home) vs Antrim (70.86)
Another first ever championship meeting despite 17 years passing since the introduction of the qualifiers. Antrim won the clash between the sides in the league, but couldn’t avoid relegation to Division 4. Sligo have 2 games under their belts, overcoming the tricky Yankees before going down to Mayo; Antrim meanwhile were mauled by Donegal. Hard to see Antrim keeping interest nor motivation here, and I think that the home side will win by a lot more than what the prediction model is saying. Prediction: Sligo by 2

Nothing remarkable about first ever championship meetings even after 16 campaigns. There must be a large number of permutations which have not happened so far, and which could never have happened pre 2001. But the qualifiers have thrown up meetings of neighbouring counties like Cavan v Longford which also would never have happened under the old system.

At a quick glance over the years, there are still around a dozen teams who Antrim have never played, and that excludes the other 8 in Ulster who they would have met at some stage in the provincial championship.

Also they did not take part in 2007 and 2008 due to Division 4 teams going straight into the Tommy Murphy (Sligo also in 2008). Sligo and Antrim did play each other in the Tommy Murphy in 2004.

seligehgit

DDC1990 wrote: »

Wicklow are a cluster**** though. Very surprised if they beat Laois.

The Meath and Donegal calls are surprising to me. I' have fancied Kildare and Tyrone.

I'd edge towards Donegal and Meath myself.

seligehgit

Patww79 wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Ah your home county might shock you yet,a bit like my own!;)

OldMrBrennan83

This post has been deleted.

keane2097

Funny enough Sligo and Antrim were inseparable in the league for a good few years not so long ago.

JB81

laoisman11 wrote: »

• Galway gain 3.99 rating points and move back into the top 4 after an almost 1 year absence
• Mayo slide to 5th, the lowest they have been since Galway beat them last year
• Cork defied the critics and had a good win (any win is a good win!) over Tipperary and gained 3.10 rating points
• Monaghan edge closer to the top 6 while Cavan drop to 15th after the game in Breffni
• A minor exchange of rating points in the Offaly ? Westmeath game (1.03), they have to do it all again this weekend
• No rating points were exchanged in the Clare ? Kerry meeting, even if Clare do move up 2 places due to the downward movement of teams ahead of them

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Donegal | 97.26 | 0.00
4 | ▲ 2 | Galway | 97.20 | 3.99
5 | ▼ 2 | Mayo | 97.19 | -3.99
6 | ▼ | Tyrone | 95.34 | 0.00
7 | = | Monaghan | 93.64 | 2.40
8 | = | Kildare | 89.04 | 0.00
9 | = | Meath | 88.92 | 0.00
10 | ▲ | Cork | 88.52 | 3.10
11 | ▼ | Tipperary | 85.81 | -3.10
12 | ▲ 2 | Clare | 84.05 | 0.00
13 | = | Westmeath | 83.35 | -1.03
14 | ▲ | Roscommon | 83.09 | 0.00
15 | ▼ 3 | Cavan | 82.84 | -2.40
16 | = | Down | 80.65 | 0.00
17 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
18 | = | Fermanagh | 78.89 | 0.00
19 | ▲ | Offaly | 77.26 | 1.03
20 | ▼ | Armagh | 76.64 | 0.00
21 | = | Laois | 76.06 | 0.00
22 | = | Sligo | 75.68 | 0.00
23 | = | Louth | 75.48 | 0.00
24 | = | Longford | 71.44 | 0.00
25 | = | Carlow | 71.42 | 0.00
26 | = | Antrim | 70.86 | 0.00
27 | = | Limerick | 69.46 | 0.00
28 | = | Wexford | 67.18 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 67.05 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.86 | 0.00

I assume Tyrone's win will put them back up in third, beating a close rival..
Wonder have Kildare win enough points to leapfrog Monaghan, again by beating a close rival?

Jayop

Probably about 97.7ish

Mr. Incognito

I was checking Paddy Power this morning and James O Donoghue for Footballer of the year at 14/1 is a steal imo.

Had a sneaky bet on Mayo also at 12/1

laoisman11

It was as much the magnitude of the wins this weekend as the wins themselves that caused much change in the rankings. All games bar one (Laois vs Wicklow) had bonus point winning margins (i.e. greater than 5 points).

• Longford's excellent win in Drogheda gained them 6.61 rating points and a jump of 5 places in the rankings
• Tyrone re-enter the top 3 after a break of 11 months with a demolition of Donegal, who themselves fall outside the top 7 for the first time in over 3 years
• Kildare can also be happy with their victory over Meath which earned them 4.46 rating points
• Incidentally, due to Louth's loss, Carlow now occupy 24th position, their highest rank since June 2006

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | ▲ 3 | Tyrone | 100.42 | 5.08
4 | = | Galway | 97.20 | 0.00
5 | = | Mayo | 97.19 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Monaghan | 93.64 | 0.00
7 | ▲ | Kildare | 93.50 | 4.46
8 | ▼ 5 | Donegal | 92.18 | -5.08
9 | ▲ | Cork | 88.52 | 0.00
10 | ▲ | Tipperary | 85.81 | 0.00
11 | ▲ 2 | Westmeath | 85.12 | 1.77
12 | ▼ 3| Meath | 84.46 | -4.46
13 | ▼ | Clare | 84.05 | 0.00
14 | = | Roscommon | 83.09 | 0.00
15 | = | Cavan | 82.84 | 0.00
16 | = | Down | 80.65 | 0.00
17 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
18 | = | Fermanagh | 78.89 | 0.00
19 | ▲ 5 | Longford | 78.05 | 6.61
20 | ▲ 2 | Sligo | 77.83 | 2.15
21 | ▼ | Armagh | 76.64 | 0.00
22 | ▼ | Laois | 76.06 | 0.00
23 | ▼ 4 | Offaly | 75.49 | -1.77
24 | ▲ | Carlow | 71.42 | 0.00
25 | ▲ 2 | Limerick | 69.46 | 0.00
26 | ▼ 3 | Louth | 68.87 | -6.61
27 | ▼ | Antrim | 68.71 | -2.15
28 | = | Wexford | 67.18 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 67.05 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.86 | 0.00

Jayop

Holy crap that's some jump!! I didn't remember the bonus points.

So we're now closer to Kerry than Mayo are to us after one win!! Mayo can't pick up points against Derry by the looks of it. Kerry and Dublin can gain points in their finals but should we beat Monaghan (assuming etc) then we can get even closer.

Same story as this time last year though with Tyrone being ahead of Mayo only to lose to them.

Stevecw

laoisman11 wrote: »

It was as much the magnitude of the wins this weekend as the wins themselves that caused much change in the rankings. All games bar one (Laois vs Wicklow) had bonus point winning margins (i.e. greater than 5 points).

• Longford's excellent win in Drogheda gained them 6.61 rating points and a jump of 5 places in the rankings
• Tyrone re-enter the top 3 after a break of 11 months with a demolition of Donegal, who themselves fall outside the top 7 for the first time in over 3 years
• Kildare can also be happy with their victory over Meath which earned them 4.46 rating points
• Incidentally, due to Louth's loss, Carlow now occupy 24th position, their highest rank since June 2006

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | ▲ 3 | Tyrone | 100.42 | 5.08
4 | = | Galway | 97.20 | 0.00
5 | = | Mayo | 97.19 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Monaghan | 93.64 | 0.00
7 | ▲ | Kildare | 93.50 | 4.46
8 | ▼ 5 | Donegal | 92.18 | -5.08
9 | ▲ | Cork | 88.52 | 0.00
10 | ▲ | Tipperary | 85.81 | 0.00
11 | ▲ 2 | Westmeath | 85.12 | 1.77
12 | ▼ 3| Meath | 84.46 | -4.46
13 | ▼ | Clare | 84.05 | 0.00
14 | = | Roscommon | 83.09 | 0.00
15 | = | Cavan | 82.84 | 0.00
16 | = | Down | 80.65 | 0.00
17 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
18 | = | Fermanagh | 78.89 | 0.00
19 | ▲ 5 | Longford | 78.05 | 6.61
20 | ▲ 2 | Sligo | 77.83 | 2.15
21 | ▼ | Armagh | 76.64 | 0.00
22 | ▼ | Laois | 76.06 | 0.00
23 | ▼ 4 | Offaly | 75.49 | -1.77
24 | ▲ | Carlow | 71.42 | 0.00
25 | ▲ 2 | Limerick | 69.46 | 0.00
26 | ▼ 3 | Louth | 68.87 | -6.61
27 | ▼ | Antrim | 68.71 | -2.15
28 | = | Wexford | 67.18 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 67.05 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.86 | 0.00

Well if they want to reintroduce the Tommy Murphy cup or something like that between bottom 8 teams, now would be a good time to select them please....geeze Carlow 24th! Dizzy heights for us! We'll probably go and lose now in London on Sunday and ruin it all tho!