Football ranking table

OldMrBrennan83

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seligehgit

Patww79 wrote: »

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Ah man anyone would think you were denying of your fellowship with the garden county!

My little sis's fiance is from a hurling stronghold in Wicklow if one could claim same exists and played in both codes at inter county level.

You guys had a wonderful club in Baltinglass in years gone by and claim to the great Kevin O Brien.Don't be so hard on yourself,those lads might come back from the US.

OldMrBrennan83

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laoisman11

4 more teams will drop out of the championship this weekend, and 2 more provincial finalists will be known (excluding the occurrence of drawn games, of course).

Down (80.65) vs Monaghan (93.64)
Apart from Monaghan’s 19 point win in Clones last year, recent meetings between these sides have been fairly close affairs, with Down winning 4 of the last 6 meetings (which takes us back to 1994). Down appear to have recovered from whatever malaise hit them last year, and they stabilised in a tough Division 2 where many expected them to falter. Armagh was another test overcome and Down showed great resilience in holding out for a win. Monaghan were also tipped by some for relegation, but had a more than decent league campaign, and followed this up with wins over Fermanagh and Cavan, where they did enough without being spectacular. This mightn’t make for pretty viewing, but Monaghan should have a greater scoring threat. Prediction: Monaghan by 3

Limerick (69.46, at home) vs Wexford (67.18)
Only 1 previous championship meeting between these sides, where Limerick came out one point winners in a qualifier game in Portlaoise (in somewhat controversial circumstances). Wexford won the league fixture between these 2 back in early February as they started the road to promotion. The prediction model doesn’t have much to go on except their current ratings, and given that Limerick are slightly superior, and at home, one might think that they would be chosen. But that is not the case. Prediction: Draw

Dublin (106.11, at home) vs Westmeath (85.12)
Westmeath talk of employing a different approach to the 2 previous Leinster finals, but it is difficult to know what they can do to stem the blue tide. A replayed win over Offaly is a closer indication of where Westmeath are and while they may keep up with Dublin for a while, they will eventually run out of steam. Prediction: Dublin by 10

Offaly (75.49, at home) vs Cavan (82.84)
Cavan put up a decent showing against Monaghan and despite relegation from Division 1, they took the odd big scalp on the way. They should have more than enough to overcome an Offaly side out for the 3rd time in 2 weeks. Prediction: Cavan (to revenge their 1969 All-Ireland semi-final replay loss, the only year where the sides have previously met) by 3

Armagh (76.64, at home) vs Fermanagh (78.89)
Will the real Armagh please stand up? 3 dropped points early in their league campaign scuppered their promotion chances, and a paltry return of 2-07 against Down with a much-vaunted attack leaves a lot of head scratching. Fermanagh are nothing if not consistent, with 2 wins from their last 8 games. They have not met since 2010 where Armagh prevailed in Enniskillen, and home advantage should see them through here. Prediction: Armagh by 3

London (53.86, at home) vs Carlow (71.42)
Another first-ever meeting (and when I get some time, I must run through the records to see how many and what combinations have not yet been played). London almost pulled off a shock against Leitrim and Carlow will be wary here, especially as London went to Carlow and beat them by 5 points during the league. The Dublin test should have helped Carlow to toughen up and believe in themselves and they did well in containing the Dub’s attack although their own scoring suffered. They should get back on track in Ruislip.
Prediction: Carlow by 6

laoisman11

• Down’s unexpected win over Monaghan results in them jumping a massive 6 places to their highest rank since May 2014 – they also gained 5.60 rating points
• Cavan, Wexford and Armagh (and to a much lesser extent, Carlow) also gained rating points and most some saw upward movement
• Limerick's loss to Wexford sees them fall to 29th, their lowest ranking since March 2002
• No rating points were exchanged in the Dublin – Westmeath game

*Teams in bold eliminated from the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 100.42 | 0.00
4 | = | Galway | 97.20 | 0.00
5 | = | Mayo | 97.19 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Kildare | 93.50 | 0.00
7 | ▲ | Donegal | 92.18 | 0.00
8 | ▲ | Cork | 88.52 | 0.00
9 | ▼ 2 | Monaghan | 88.04 | -5.60
10 | ▲ 6 | Down | 86.25 | 5.60
11 | ▼ | Tipperary | 85.81 | 0.00
12 | ▼ | Westmeath | 85.12 | 0.00
13 | ▲ 2 | Cavan | 84.97 | 2.13
14 | ▼ 2 | Meath | 84.46 | 0.00
15 | ▼ 2 | Clare | 84.05 | 0.00
16 | ▼ 2 | Roscommon | 83.09 | 0.00
17 | = | Armagh | 80.91 | 1.42
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 77.83 | 0.00
21 | = | Laois | 76.06 | 0.00
22 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | -1.42
23 | = | Offaly | 73.36 | -2.13
24 | = | Carlow | 71.51 | 0.09
25 | ▲3 | Wexford| 71.24 | 4.06
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | ▲ | Leitrim | 67.05 | 0.00
29 | ▼4 | Limerick| 65.40 | -4.06
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | -0.09

Stevecw

laoisman11 wrote: »

• Down’s unexpected win over Monaghan results in them jumping a massive 6 places to their highest rank since May 2014 – they also gained 5.60 rating points
• Cavan, Limerick and Armagh (and to a much lesser extent, Carlow) also gained rating points and most some saw upward movement
• Wexford’s loss to Limerick sees them fall to 29th, their lowest ranking since June 2001
• No rating points were exchanged in the Dublin – Westmeath game

*Teams in bold eliminated from the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 100.42 | 0.00
4 | = | Galway | 97.20 | 0.00
5 | = | Mayo | 97.19 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Kildare | 93.50 | 0.00
7 | ▲ | Donegal | 92.18 | 0.00
8 | ▲ | Cork | 88.52 | 0.00
9 | ▼ 2 | Monaghan | 88.04 | -5.60
10 | ▲ 6 | Down | 86.25 | 5.60
11 | ▼ | Tipperary | 85.81 | 0.00
12 | ▼ | Westmeath | 85.12 | 0.00
13 | ▲ 2 | Cavan | 84.97 | 2.13
14 | ▼ 2 | Meath | 84.46 | 0.00
15 | ▼ 2 | Clare | 84.05 | 0.00
16 | ▼ 2 | Roscommon | 83.09 | 0.00
17 | = | Armagh | 80.91 | 1.42
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 77.83 | 0.00
21 | = | Laois | 76.06 | 0.00
22 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | -1.42
23 | = | Offaly | 73.36 | -2.13
24 | = | Carlow | 71.51 | 0.09
25 | = | Limerick | 71.40 | 1.94
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | ▲ | Leitrim | 67.05 | 0.00
29 | ▼ | Wexford | 65.24 | -1.94
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | -0.09

Great work as always, but you got 1 result wrong. Wexford actually beat Limerick 0-12 to 0-11. So Wexford shouldn't be falling to 29th at all!

laoisman11

Stevecw wrote: »

Great work as always, but you got 1 result wrong. Wexford actually beat Limerick 0-12 to 0-11. So Wexford shouldn't be falling to 29th at all!

The Hoganstand bug strikes again, with me taking the teams in order of home and away, and them naming the winning side first. What's worse is that I made a big deal of Wexford not being written off in spite of an inferior rating points to Limerick and being away from home :rolleyes:

seligehgit

Any predictions?:)

laoisman11

They are coming :-) I'm working on something new, it's a work in progress but I'll post it up tonight.

laoisman11

Quick prediction output below but I wanted to test something new and to get some feedback (details below).

Meath (84.46, at home) vs Sligo (77.83)
Prediction: Meath by 6

Mayo (97.19, at home) vs Derry (79.16)
Prediction: Mayo by 7

Donegal (92.18, at home) vs Longford (78.05)
Prediction: Donegal by 8

Laois (76.06, at home) vs Clare (84.05)
Prediction: Draw

Kerry (102.84, at home) vs Cork (88.52)
Prediction: Kerry by 6

READ FIRST

I have been working on a more automated prediction output during the week and had hoped to have it finished properly for the weekend, but time has run against me. I would like to share it anyways to get some feedback, primarily to know if it is of interest to those that drop in here. I realise that if I go for this approach that it will take out the “human” element of previewing the games and that it could appear a bit cold. However, I also know that I am not a sports journalist and that ye can easily find more insightful details elsewhere.
The second question, if the response to the first question is yes, is what other aspects could be of interest to include? Are there other ways that I could present the data or make it more intuitive?

PDF seems to be the best format to present this type of data so another question is how does this show up on mobile devices? If people can’t see it, it’s a complete waste of time.

Some bugs are still evident, in the recent form graphs, there should be 20 games, but for some reason, after the first graph, only away or neutral ground games are shown. There also seems to be a bug within the graphic where the scoring difference is not plotted correctly. Finally, I want to include biggest winning margins and losses, and this is only presented for some games at the moment.

PDF attached! Happy to have constructive feedback.
Cheers.

OldMrBrennan83

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Jayop

What's great to see is the graphs vs the predicted score. Amazing how close the predictions tend to be to the actual scores.

seligehgit

Looks very good and the pdf format is perfect.

In spite of your lack of a sports journalistic background your former opinions/match predictions were always interesting.

laoisman11

A cleaner version of what I showed yesterday, still some minor bugs to be tweaked. And the prediction section is missing from this one.

StupidLikeAFox

laoisman11 wrote: »

Meath (84.46, at home) vs Sligo (77.83)
Prediction: Meath by 6

Mayo (97.19, at home) vs Derry (79.16)
Prediction: Mayo by 7

Donegal (92.18, at home) vs Longford (78.05)
Prediction: Donegal by 8

Laois (76.06, at home) vs Clare (84.05)
Prediction: Draw

Kerry (102.84, at home) vs Cork (88.52)
Prediction: Kerry by 6

Results after today:

Meath by 2

Mayo by 11 (albeit after extra time)

Donegal by 5

Clare by 10

laoisman11

• Clare finished Laois’s dismal year and in the process gained 3 rating points and leap-frogged 5 other teams in the rankings
• Meath’s win over Sligo sees them nudge up a place to 13th
• No rating points were exchanged in the 3 remaining games from last weekend

*Teams in bold eliminated from the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 100.42 | 0.00
4 | = | Galway | 97.20 | 0.00
5 | = | Mayo | 97.19 | 0.00
6 | = | Kildare | 93.50 | 0.00
7 | = | Donegal | 92.18 | 0.00
8 | = | Cork | 88.52 | 0.00
9 | = | Monaghan | 88.04 | 0.00
10 | ▲ 5 | Clare | 87.05 | 3.00
11 | ▼ | Down | 86.25 | 0.00
12 | ▼ | Tipperary | 85.81 | 0.00
13 | ▲ | Meath | 85.53 | 1.07
14 | ▼ 2 | Westmeath | 85.12 | 0.00
15 | ▼ 2 | Cavan | 84.97 | 0.00
16 | = | Roscommon | 83.09 | 0.00
17 | = | Armagh | 80.91 | 0.00
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | -1.07
21 | ▲ | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | ▲ | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
23 | ▼ 2 | Laois | 73.06 | -3.00
24 | = | Carlow | 71.51 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 71.24 | 0.00
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Leitrim | 67.05 | 0.00
29 | = | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

laoisman11

Predictions for this weekend's games attached. It's looking close to what I wanted from the start, but still some tidying up to be done.

tayto lover

How is Cork in 8th position??

seligehgit

laoisman11 wrote: »

Predictions for this weekend's games attached. It's looking close to what I wanted from the start, but still some tidying up to be done.

Is there no prediction model output for Mayo v Clare?

laoisman11

seligehgit wrote: »

Is there no prediction model output for Mayo v Clare?

Don't know why that is missing, I will have a look tonight. From memory (and from extrapolating the graph) it was somewhere around a 4 point win for Mayo.

BonnieSituation

tayto lover wrote: »

How is Cork in 8th position??

Are*

Bloody Yank!

Jayop

Would "How's" have been acceptable?

BonnieSituation

Jayop wrote: »

Would "How's" have been acceptable?

Of course. English is a quare one. Ain't it?

laoisman11

laoisman11 wrote: »

Don't know why that is missing, I will have a look tonight. From memory (and from extrapolating the graph) it was somewhere around a 4 point win for Mayo.

Yep, Mayo by 4.4

laoisman11

• A massive jump of 9 ranking places by Roscommon who gained the maximum of 9 rating points for their Connacht final win over Galway and move up to 7th. This is only the 9th time that 9 rating points have been exchanged between teams. Galway meanwhile drop to 11th
• Armagh were the next big winners, gaining 4.44 rating points and 4 ranking places following a one-point win over Westmeath
• Tipp’s win in Cavan also helps them move back up the table as they prepare for another assault on the championship
• Mayo, Donegal and Carlow also picked up rating points and increased their rankings; Carlow are now at their highest level since June 2005

*Teams in bold still in championship

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 100.42 | 0.00
4 | ▲ | Mayo | 99.55 | 2.36
5 | ▲ 2 | Donegal | 94.45 | 2.27
6 | = | Kildare | 93.50 | 0.00
7 | ▲ 9 | Roscommon | 92.09 | 9.00
8 | ▲ 4 | Tipperary | 89.24 | 3.43
9 | ▼ | Cork | 88.52 | 0.00
10 | ▼ | Monaghan | 88.40 | 0.36
11 | ▼ 7 | Galway | 88.20 | -9.00
12 | ▼ | Down | 86.25 | 0.00
13 | ▲ 4 | Armagh | 85.35 | 4.44
14 | ▼ 4 | Clare | 84.69 | -2.36
15 | ▼ 2 | Meath | 83.26 | -2.27
16 | ▼ | Cavan | 81.54 | -3.43
17 | ▼ 3 | Westmeath | 80.68 | -4.44
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | ▲ 2 | Carlow | 73.77 | 2.26
23 | ▼ | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
24 | ▼ | Laois | 73.06 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 70.88 | -0.36
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | ▲ | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
29 | ▼ | Leitrim | 64.79 | -2.26
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

laoisman11

See attached predictions for this weekend's games.

Some things stand out for me:

• In 7 of Tipp's last 8 games, they have performed better than expected, will it be enough to see of a dogged Armagh side?
• Carlow have performed seriously well in 7 of their last 10 games, can they keep this going?
• Monaghan's loss to Down was their first major blip since last year's loss to Longford
• Dublin's superior rating points score is not being consistently translated into big winning margins
• Down's form is wildly erratic, will they explode?

tl;dr

Tipp vs Armagh - Draw
Carlow vs Monaghan - Monaghan by 7
Dublin vs Kildare - Dublin by 6
Tyrone vs Down - Tyrone by 4

Jayop

PP only giving just over 11/1 on the acca for those including the draw. Would have expected better.

For the following bet...

Draw Tipp Armagh
Monaghan to win by 7-9 points
Dublin exactly 6
Tyrone exactly 4

5670/1

lol, I might whack a euro on that for the craic.

keane2097

Don't forget us when you're rich jayop

Jayop

keane2097 wrote: »

Don't forget us when you're rich jayop

I'll buy Laoisman a beer!

laoisman11

Jayop wrote: »

keane2097 wrote: »

Don't forget us when you're rich jayop

I'll buy Laoisman a beer!

At 5670/1, I'll have 2!! If yere looking for good tips, head over to the pools thread....