Football ranking table

Jayop

I'm not a betting man really. I think it's the bane of modern sports, but I was interested in the odds in that one.

2 pints will be not a problem!!

laoisman11

Only minor changes in the table compared to the aftermath of last weekend’s shocks.

• Armagh were the big movers this week, with a fine win away from home over a higher-ranked Tipp side, for which they gain 5 places and 4.38 rating points. Incidentially, Armagh have now increased 14 places in the rankings since the start of 2017
• Both Monaghan and Tyrone had minor gains following their wins over Carlow and Down, respectively
• No rating points were exchanged in the Leinster final. As it currently stands, Dublin will not pick up any rating points playing a team outside the top 5

*Teams in bold still active in the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 100.67 | 0.25
4 | = | Mayo | 99.55 | 0.00
5 | = | Donegal | 94.45 | 0.00
6 | = | Kildare | 93.50 | 0.00
7 | = | Roscommon | 92.09 | 0.00
8 | ▲ 5 | Armagh | 89.73 | 4.38
9 | ▲ | Monaghan | 89.07 | 0.67
10 | ▼ | Cork | 88.52 | 0.00
11 | = | Galway | 88.20 | 0.00
12 | = | Down | 86.00 | -0.25
13 | ▼ 5 | Tipperary | 84.86 | -4.38
14 | = | Clare | 84.69 | 0.00
15 | = | Meath | 83.26 | 0.00
16 | = | Cavan | 81.54 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.68 | 0.00
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | ▲ | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
23 | ▼ | Carlow | 73.10 | -0.67
24 | = | Laois | 73.06 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 70.88 | 0.00
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 64.79 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

Charles Babbage

I expect Cork, Galway and Down and Armagh to lose their games, against higher opposition. So Armagh and Monaghan will swap places in the table. and not much else until the QFs.

Armagh being in Div 3 is an anomaly, but only a miracle last minute goal by Tipp brought this about. They would be strong favourites for promotion next year.

tanko

Galway have the ability to beat Donegal but whether they have the motivation and belief to do it after a terrible performance against Roscommon is another matter.

Always_Running

tanko wrote: »

Galway have the ability to beat Donegal but whether they have the motivation and belief to do it after a terrible performance against Roscommon is another matter.

The 2 week break should help Galway plus Donegal unlike Roscommon used up a lot of their energy in the league this spring.

laoisman11

Prediction output attached.

Things that stand out for me:

• Was Galway's defeat to Roscommon similar to their defeat by Tipp in '16? Can they rectify it?
• In 9 of their last 10 games, Galway have not come out better than expected (score minus prediction); they have not beaten Donegal in the championship since '83
• Cork's form in recent times has been well below the line, whereas Mayo appear to stay close to the predicted line
• There is no clear relationship between rating points difference and score difference from previous Cork vs Mayo results, but in the 2 instances where Cork were 10 rating points inferior to Mayo, they did not win

tl;dr
Donegal by 1.0
Mayo by 3.2

laoisman11

Only 2 games the weekend gone by:

• Galway’s huge victory over Donegal propels them 6 places up the table to 5th and they gain 6.38 rating points; Donegal, meanwhile, fall to their lowest ranking since March 2011
• Mayo edge closer to Tyrone after seeing off Cork after extra-time

Teams in bold still active in the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 102.84 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 100.67 | 0.00
4 | = | Mayo | 100.34 | 0.79
5 | ▲ 6 | Galway | 94.58 | 6.38
6 | = | Kildare | 93.50 | 0.00
7 | = | Roscommon | 92.09 | 0.00
8 | = | Armagh | 89.73 | 0.00
9 | = | Monaghan | 89.07 | 0.00
10 | ▼ 5 | Donegal | 88.07 | -6.38
11 | ▼ | Cork | 87.73 | -0.79
12 | = | Down | 86.00 | 0.00
13 | = | Tipperary | 84.86 | 0.00
14 | = | Clare | 84.69 | 0.00
15 | = | Meath | 83.26 | 0.00
16 | = | Cavan | 81.54 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.68 | 0.00
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | = | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 73.10 | 0.00
24 | = | Laois | 73.06 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 70.88 | 0.00
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 64.79 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

laoisman11

Prediction model output attached

• I mentioned it earlier in the championship, but Down generally get on well against Monaghan. Can they repeat the trick here?
• A first-time championship meeting of Armagh and Kildare, with Armagh holding the upper hand from their league encounters
• Roscommon’s form in their last 3 games has been exceptional; can they be the team to finally prevent Mayo from scraping over the line?
• Galway’s highly erratic form in their last 2 games makes this a difficult one to call, but the previous 8 meetings between the side has largely gone to script

Tl;dr
Monaghan by 2.1
Kildare by 1.8
Mayo by 3.6
Kerry by 3.5

Farmer_3650

laoisman11 wrote: »

[*]Roscommon’s form in their last 3 games has been exceptional; can they be the team to finally prevent Mayo from scraping over the line

If you look at every Mayo game so far, it has been their fitness that won them in the end and not their skill. They are not the team they once were. Roscommon have the energy to go the 70 minutes. I see the Roscommon v Mayo game being extremely close but I think Roscommon will win by 3 or 4 points in the end. As for the Kerry game, I also see a very close game but Kerry will scrape a win in the last 5 minutes.

yop

Farmer_3650 wrote: »

If you look at every Mayo game so far, it has been their fitness that won them in the end and not their skill. They are not the team they once were. Roscommon have the energy to go the 70 minutes. I see the Roscommon v Mayo game being extremely close but I think Roscommon will win by 3 or 4 points in the end. As for the Kerry game, I also see a very close game but Kerry will scrape a win in the last 5 minutes.

We scored 27 points against Cork, even Usain Bolt couldn't do that without skill....

What example of Roscommon going 70 minutes can you show us.

Farmer_3650

yop wrote: »

We scored 27 points against Cork, even Usain Bolt couldn't do that without skill....

What example of Roscommon going 70 minutes can you show us.

Last time we played Cork we scored 37 points. But that was last year, we had a completely different team. This year we scored 21 points against Galway. I think Roscommon and Mayo are two very well matched teams and I think either way it will be a good game.

laoisman11

Getting to the serious end of the championship..…

• Armagh gained 3.75 rating points and move to their highest rank since March 2015. Armagh are now by far the most improved team in rating point terms since January
• Monaghan gained 3.58 rating points with a bonus point win over Down
• Kerry also got their bonus point win and in doing so, sneak closer to Dublin
• Finally, Roscommon steal some points from Mayo to move up to their highest rank since May 2002

*Teams in bold still active in the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 104.86 | 2.02
3 | = | Tyrone | 100.67 | 0.00
4 | = | Mayo | 98.69 | -1.65
5 | ▲ 2 | Roscommon | 93.74 | 1.65
6 | ▲ 2 | Armagh | 93.48 | 3.75
7 | ▲ 2 | Monaghan | 92.65 | 3.58
8 | ▼ 3 | Galway | 92.56 | -2.02
9 | ▼ 3 | Kildare | 89.75 | -3.75
10 | = | Donegal | 88.07 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 87.73 | 0.00
12 | ▲ | Tipperary | 84.86 | 0.00
13 | ▲ | Clare | 84.69 | 0.00
14 | ▲ | Meath | 83.26 | 0.00
15 | ▼ 3 | Down | 82.42 | -3.58
16 | = | Cavan | 81.54 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.68 | 0.00
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | = | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 73.10 | 0.00
24 | = | Laois | 73.06 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 70.88 | 0.00
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 64.79 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

ciarriaithuaidh

Laoisman, I admire the effort and the interest in analysing the football championship you have.
Anybody putting in this sort of effort is commendable.
However, I don't think your system has much relevance and in fact, can portray an entirely different picture to the reality on the ground, and the latest post brought that home to me again.

My own county, Kerry, have "crept closer to Dublin" you say and closed the gap after a bonus point win? The reality to anyone who watched the game (or most people I'd imagine) is that the Kerry performance should have Kerry further away from Dublin if anything, not closer. Maybe one could take the view that these games are shadow-boxing for Kerry and just ignore them for ranking points, which would be entirely reasonable..but saying we are closer to Dublin after Sunday? No.

Similarly, Mayo..their stock has dropped a good bit after struggling over a very weak Cork team and drawn with Roscommon in a poor game where they scored only 4 points in the 2nd half. Yet, they appear to have stayed steady in your table. Again, not reflecting reality I feel.

I could go on but I think you get what I mean? It's just a cold, factual evaluation without the realism basically IMO. Kildare and Down both drop severely after Saturday but both of them played some good football in 2 very good games. Certainly Kildare v Armagh was of a higher quality than either game Sunday. Down cut Monaghan apart a lot in first half also and should have been ahead at half time. The 2nd half admittedly, Monaghan showed they are a step ahead and the scoreline reflected that.

I'm struggling to verbalize exactly how I feel slightly but will leave it at that I think.

Jayop

You're reading too much into a minor points increase for kerry in a week Dublin didn't play. When Dublin inevitably hammer. Monaghan then the difference will most likely be greater than it was before Kerry played Galway. You can't compare until the end of a round of fixtures.

Likewise Mayo. You're complaining that they have retained 4th, but they were third a few weeks ago and in all likelihood they'll be in the last 4 so where do you suggest they should be in the standings and who should be ahead of them?

Charles Babbage

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

My own county, Kerry, have "crept closer to Dublin" you say and closed the gap after a bonus point win? The reality to anyone who watched the game (or most people I'd imagine) is that the Kerry performance should have Kerry further away from Dublin if anything, not closer.

Dublin and Kerry playing different weeks. Dublin will pull away from Kerry on Saturday, I suspect. The margin of victory should play a part in calculations and reflect Kerry's performance to some extent.

I could go on but I think you get what I mean? It's just a cold, factual evaluation without the realism basically IMO. Kildare and Down both drop severely after Saturday but both of them played some good football in 2 very good games. Certainly Kildare v Armagh was of a higher quality than either game Sunday. Down cut Monaghan apart a lot in first half also and should have been ahead at half time. The 2nd half admittedly, Monaghan showed they are a step ahead and the scoreline reflected that.

Monaghan beat Down and Armagh beat Kildare and so improved relative to these counties. That is fair enough IMHO.

The teams in the quarter finals stand at 1-8.

Django99

The think people need to remember is this. When we talk about the best teams, or which team is better than another, or how much better one team is than another, we are talking in terms of opinion. I could have an opinion that one team is better than another. A different person could have the opposite opinion. We have no way of knowing who's opinion is right, but it's fun to talk about for sure.

This ranking table has absolutely nothing to do with opinions. The author is not trying to say that he thinks Kerry are now closer to Dublin because they beat Galway. He is not trying to say that Mayo are just as good as they were last year. To say those things would be opinions.

This is purely numbers. It is science. It's accuracy compared to people's opinions is completely irrelevant. It's extremely interesting to look at the table, and to compare the standings to results in hindsight. But it's not trying to say that Kerry are now more likely to beat Dublin. It's not trying to say that Mayo are as good as they were last year.

It's statistics, it's science, it's not art.

Fr Tod Umptious

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Laoisman, I admire the effort and the interest in analysing the football championship you have.
Anybody putting in this sort of effort is commendable.
However, I don't think your system has much relevance and in fact, can portray an entirely different picture to the reality on the ground, and the latest post brought that home to me again.

My own county, Kerry, have "crept closer to Dublin" you say and closed the gap after a bonus point win? The reality to anyone who watched the game (or most people I'd imagine) is that the Kerry performance should have Kerry further away from Dublin if anything, not closer. Maybe one could take the view that these games are shadow-boxing for Kerry and just ignore them for ranking points, which would be entirely reasonable..but saying we are closer to Dublin after Sunday? No.

Similarly, Mayo..their stock has dropped a good bit after struggling over a very weak Cork team and drawn with Roscommon in a poor game where they scored only 4 points in the 2nd half. Yet, they appear to have stayed steady in your table. Again, not reflecting reality I feel.

I could go on but I think you get what I mean? It's just a cold, factual evaluation without the realism basically IMO. Kildare and Down both drop severely after Saturday but both of them played some good football in 2 very good games. Certainly Kildare v Armagh was of a higher quality than either game Sunday. Down cut Monaghan apart a lot in first half also and should have been ahead at half time. The 2nd half admittedly, Monaghan showed they are a step ahead and the scoreline reflected that.

I'm struggling to verbalize exactly how I feel slightly but will leave it at that I think.

Look at it at a high level, not just based on what you see on the field on any given Sunday.

Right now focus on the teams no longer in the competition, their current ranking gives a pretty true reflection of where they sit.


And the end of the year look at the rankings and they are usually pretty accurate.

ahnowbrowncow

Jayop wrote: »

You're reading too much into a minor points increase for kerry in a week Dublin didn't play. When Dublin inevitably hammer. Monaghan then the difference will most likely be greater than it was before Kerry played Galway. You can't compare until the end of a round of fixtures.

Likewise Mayo. You're complaining that they have retained 4th, but they were third a few weeks ago and in all likelihood they'll be in the last 4 so where do you suggest they should be in the standings and who should be ahead of them?

Dublin won't gain any points if they beat Monaghan. They're over 13 points ahead of Monaghan, plus they gain three from home advantage so they'll be over 15 points ahead which means there'll be no adjustment for them winning.

In reply to ciarriaithuaidh, I have to say that I think the table is quite accurate, all the current top 8 teams have got to the quarter finals.

blowitupref

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Laoisman, I admire the effort and the interest in analysing the football championship you have.
Anybody putting in this sort of effort is commendable.
However, I don't think your system has much relevance and in fact, can portray an entirely different picture to the reality on the ground, and the latest post brought that home to me again.

My own county, Kerry, have "crept closer to Dublin" you say and closed the gap after a bonus point win? The reality to anyone who watched the game (or most people I'd imagine) is that the Kerry performance should have Kerry further away from Dublin if anything, not closer. Maybe one could take the view that these games are shadow-boxing for Kerry and just ignore them for ranking points, which would be entirely reasonable..but saying we are closer to Dublin after Sunday? No.

Similarly, Mayo..their stock has dropped a good bit after struggling over a very weak Cork team and drawn with Roscommon in a poor game where they scored only 4 points in the 2nd half. Yet, they appear to have stayed steady in your table. Again, not reflecting reality I feel.

I could go on but I think you get what I mean? It's just a cold, factual evaluation without the realism basically IMO. Kildare and Down both drop severely after Saturday but both of them played some good football in 2 very good games. Certainly Kildare v Armagh was of a higher quality than either game Sunday. Down cut Monaghan apart a lot in first half also and should have been ahead at half time. The 2nd half admittedly, Monaghan showed they are a step ahead and the scoreline reflected that.

I'm struggling to verbalize exactly how I feel slightly but will leave it at that I think.

Armaghs quality may have looked higher but only because were up against a wide open Kildare defence that didn't seem to learn nothing from the Leinster final. They will be up against a more organized defence next and that quality will be less noticeable because their players won't be given the same time and room on the ball and more errors will happen then in Armagh play when under pressure.

ciarriaithuaidh

blowitupref wrote: »

Armaghs quality may have looked higher but only because were up against a wide open Kildare defence that didn't seem to learn nothing from the Leinster final. They will be up against a more organized defence next and that quality will be less noticeable because their players won't be given the same time and room on the ball and more errors will happen then in Armagh play when under pressure.

Were Kildare any less "wide open" than Galway were Sunday in allowing a Kerry team performing way below its best score 1-18, 1-16 of which was from play? Surely not? Armagh's attacking play, epitomised by Jamie Clarke's movement and some outstanding long-range shooting, was the difference.

Kerry got a "bonus point" for beating Galway seemingly, due to Galway's proximity to them in the ranking - they were ranked 5th last week before the Kerry game, despite being totally outplayed at home by Roscommon and playing terribly. They then beat a Donegal team that put in probably their worst performance since 2010. Any system that has this Galway team ranked 5th in the country at ANY point in the last few years is just totally flawed.

Cork we're almost heading for Div 3 this year at one point. They are in disarray and almost lost to Waterford, scraped by Tipperary and got hammered by Kerry.
They produce their best performance of the year and take a division 1 team and finalists last year, to extra time, losing by 1, and they LOSE points on the rankings? Explain that to me?

I submit, some of ye need to start watching games more rather than looking at raw data and some prediction model. I'll leave ye to it.

laoisman11

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Were Kildare any less "wide open" than Galway were Sunday in allowing a Kerry team performing way below its best score 1-18, 1-16 of which was from play? Surely not? Armagh's attacking play, epitomised by Jamie Clarke's movement and some outstanding long-range shooting, was the difference.

Kerry got a "bonus point" for beating Galway seemingly, due to Galway's proximity to them in the ranking - they were ranked 5th last week before the Kerry game, despite being totally outplayed at home by Roscommon and playing terribly. They then beat a Donegal team that put in probably their worst performance since 2010. Any system that has this Galway team ranked 5th in the country at ANY point in the last few years is just totally flawed.

Cork we're almost heading for Div 3 this year at one point. They are in disarray and almost lost to Waterford, scraped by Tipperary and got hammered by Kerry.
They produce their best performance of the year and take a division 1 team and finalists last year, to extra time, losing by 1, and they LOSE points on the rankings? Explain that to me?

I submit, some of ye need to start watching games more rather than looking at raw data and some prediction model. I'll leave ye to it.

I would be the first to accept that the model is not perfect, that there will always be cases of teams being too high or too low in the rankings based on which teams they were selected to play against in the championship (leagues tend to even things out, even if, apparently, nobody takes the league seriously!!). It is set up to ensure, for the most part, that the team that wins the All-Ireland will be the number one team.

Changes week to week during the championship can be controversial, but as some posters have mentioned, position at the end of the championship year is pretty much close to many people's opinion.

In general, a cold, data-only driven look at the ranking of sports team is not for all tastes, it takes the subjectivity and biais and personal opinions completely out of it, and for some, those are more important. To each, their own.

laoisman11

This week's predictions attached.....

Things of note:

• Both Tyrone's and Armagh's championship form have been great in 2017; something's got to give here
• Dublin have performed poorly against Monaghan in their last 3 meetings, albeit they were all league games
• There is actually a negative correlation between Dublin's score difference and rating difference when playing Monaghan, i.e. they greater the rating difference, the less Dublin have won by
• Mayo seem to be performing in cycles of 2 since March: 2 games worse than expected followed by 2 games better than expected - they have just finished the 2 games worse than expected cycle

tl;dr
Tyrone by 3.0
Dublin by 6.0
Mayo by 3.2

seligehgit

laoisman11 wrote: »

This week's predictions attached.....

Things of note:

• Both Tyrone's and Armagh's championship form have been great in 2017; something's got to give here
• Dublin have performed poorly against Monaghan in their last 3 meetings, albeit they were all league games
• There is actually a negative correlation between Dublin's score difference and rating difference when playing Monaghan, i.e. they greater the rating difference, the less Dublin have won by
• Mayo seem to be performing in cycles of 2 since March: 2 games worse than expected followed by 2 games better than expected - they have just finished the 2 games worse than expected cycle

tl;dr
Tyrone by 3.0
Dublin by 6.0
Mayo by 3.2

It would be typical if that was the case.Why could'nt it be a cycle of three games?:D

kupus

so you are saying two games in a row for mayo and we do better than expected,
hmm
so thats QF and SF, we beat the head of the rossies, destroy kerry back to the stone age and then we get to final and then I should bet everything on opposition whether it's Monaghan tyrone dublin armagh

Yeah, sounds about right lol.

mono_mac

Jayop wrote:

You're reading too much into a minor points increase for kerry in a week Dublin didn't play. When Dublin inevitably hammer. Monaghan then the difference will most likely be greater than it was before Kerry played Galway. You can't compare until the end of a round of fixtures.

Dublin will not hammer MONAGHAN...mark my words

Jayop

mono_mac wrote: »

Dublin will not hammer MONAGHAN...mark my words

Define a hammering? The dubs will win by at least 5 and while it might be that close on the sdoresheet it'll be a comprehensive win.

theoneeyedman

mono_mac wrote: »

Dublin will not hammer MONAGHAN...mark my words

Dunno if this is the right thread for discussing predictions etc (I don't want to derail an excellent thread laoisman) but monaghan defensively are weaker than before IMHO, the whyllie boys don't appear to be at the height of their powers anymore.

Syferus

kupus wrote: »

so you are saying two games in a row for mayo and we do better than expected,
hmm
so thats QF and SF, we beat the head of the rossies, destroy kerry back to the stone age and then we get to final and then I should bet everything on opposition whether it's Monaghan tyrone dublin armagh

Yeah, sounds about right lol.

Mayo beating Kerry in the championship sounds about as right as mayonnaise ice cream.

BonnieSituation

Jayop wrote: »

Define a hammering? The dubs will win by at least 5 and while it might be that close on the sdoresheet it'll be a comprehensive win.

SO a hammering? :P

Blackjack

Be interesting to see how close things are between the top 4 going into the semi Finals. Not expecting any change in the order of rankings given the 3 quarter finals played ended in hammerings, so unless there are additional bonus points for higher margin of victory (I don't believe there are) it will just be a change in the order of the losing sides perhaps.