Football ranking table

laoisman11

Two major shocks this weekend, and ones that have certainly shook up the ranking table! I have to say that I wasn't expecting too much movement but both Tipp and Cavan proved me wrong.

• Tipperary collected 6 rating points from Cork and move up 4 places to 14th overall
• Cavan reaped 5.3 rating point from Donegal and are now at their highest since April 2002. Just one position climbed but they have put space between themselves and the peloton
• No rating points were exchanged in the Leinster final massacre

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 110.99 | 0.00
2 | = | Mayo | 105.46 | 0.00
3 | ▲ | Kerry | 101.95 | 0.00
4 | ▼ | Donegal | 98.77 | -5.30
5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Cavan | 97.87 | 5.30
7 | ▼ | Galway | 93.47 | 0.00
8 | ▲ | Meath | 92.45 | 0.00
9 | ▲ | Roscommon | 92.30 | 0.00
10 | ▲ | Armagh | 90.76 | 0.00
11 | ▼ 3 | Cork | 86.53 | -6.00
12 | = | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
13 | = | Laois | 85.56 | 0.00
14 | ▲ 4 | Tipperary | 85.05 | 6.00
15 | ▼ | Kildare | 83.49 | 0.00
16 | ▼ | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
17 | ▼ | Down | 80.98 | 0.00
18 | ▼ | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
19 | = | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
20 | = | Longford | 74.96 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
22 | = | Fermanagh | 71.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Wicklow | 70.21 | 0.00
24 | = | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
25 | = | Limerick | 68.18 | 0.00
26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00

laoisman11

Extremely difficult for the model to make predictions based on the paucity of previous meetings between the sides involved in this year's semi-finals (18 meetings between Dublin and Cavan and 8 between Mayo and Tipperary since 1925), but some interesting points to consider from the in-depth report attached:

• Dublin have under-performed against Cavan in 9 of their 10 last meetings
• Cavan's form appears quite variable from game to game, there could be a question about their consistency
• Tipperary have over-performed in 10 of their last 11 games but have not beaten Mayo in their 8 meetings since 1925

tl;dr
Dublin by 9.3
Mayo by 12

seligehgit

laoisman11 wrote: »

Extremely difficult for the model to make predictions based on the paucity of previous meetings between the sides involved in this year's semi-finals (18 meetings between Dublin and Cavan and 8 between Mayo and Tipperary since 1925), but some interesting points to consider from the in-depth report attached:

• Dublin have under-performed against Cavan in 9 of their 10 last meetings
• Cavan's form appears quite variable from game to game, there could be a question about their consistency
• Tipperary have over-performed in 10 of their last 11 games but have not beaten Mayo in their 8 meetings since 1925

tl;dr
Dublin by 9.3
Mayo by 12

Last Dublin Cavan contest in Croker in 1990?

Dublin are an entirely different proposition in Croke Park in the last decade/this year.

IMO the model is overly generous to Mayo in terms of predicted margin and the polar opposite to Dublin.


Thanks for your marvellous and always fascinating endeavour.

beggars_bush

Don't forget Tipp have a few players they didn't have during the league.

feargale

seligehgit wrote: »

No offence feargale but I think that's a tad simplistic.:)

I do not think the majority of people would rank the counties below Tipp in that order.

After today I'm thinking Kerry will rank about no. 29.

laoisman11

Apologies, I haven't come back in here since the semi-finals, because basically the results had absolutely no effect on the tables, with no rating points exchanged between either set of teams due to the gulf between them.

I will be back later this week with the prediction model output for the final.

seligehgit

laoisman11 wrote: »

Apologies, I haven't come back in here since the semi-finals, because basically the results had absolutely no effect on the tables, with no rating points exchanged between either set of teams due to the gulf between them.

I will be back later this week with the prediction model output for the final.

Ah laoisman11 there's no rush!

I'll be peeking through my hand covered eyes behind the couch when you post a prediction!:eek:

laoisman11

What a year! And it's not over yet.......

One final chance for 2020 to throw up the unexpected, to shake us out of our routine, to send historians scampering back to the dark ages so as to inform us about when such an event might have happened before.........

There is many a romantic here, and I would be one of them, but it appears difficult to imagine how Mayo would have enough to trouble Dublin for 70 minutes. It is really going to require a Herculean effort by Mayo and hope that things go seriously awry in the Dublin camp for this game to remain interesting with 10 minutes to go. And even then.......

The prediction model is no romantic however. Cold, hard numbers show a rating difference of 5 points between the sides, a Dublin team that has won their last 3 games by approximately 10 points more than expected, and a team that have not lost to Mayo since 2012.

The full prediction model output is attached (the fixtures for 2019 are missing in section 5 but are in graphic 4, a bug to be corrected some time).

tl;dr Dublin by 5

Achebe

Spot on.

laoisman11

No shocks to be seen in Croke Park on an All-Ireland Saturday approaching the winter solstice. Despite rattling Dublin for 55 minutes, Mayo were not only missing that extra piece of the jigsaw but they were also aware of it, with speculative shots and desperate actions providing even more ammunition to Dublin to lap up and punish.

The year finishes with Dublin again in the number 1 ranking place, a spot that they have occupied since September 2015. Their streak stands today at 1934 days, surpassing Kerry’s record from the 1930s (1631 days) and Kerry's more recent summit streak from the 78-82 vintage (1407 days). We are truly witnessing an all-time great team, and it looks likely that their reign will continue into the near future.

I will do up an end of year review over the holidays.

Merry Christmas! And may 2021 be less of a sh1t-fest than 2*2*.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 112.28 | 1.29
2 | = | Mayo | 104.17 | -1.29
3 | = | Kerry | 101.95 | 0.00
4 | = | Donegal | 98.77 | 0.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
6 | = | Cavan | 97.87 | 0.00
7 | = | Galway | 93.47 | 0.00
8 | = | Meath | 92.45 | 0.00
9 | = | Roscommon | 92.30 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 90.76 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
12 | = | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
13 | = | Laois | 85.56 | 0.00
14 | = | Tipperary | 85.05 | 0.00
15 | = | Kildare | 83.49 | 0.00
16 | = | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
17 | = | Down | 80.98 | 0.00
18 | = | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
19 | = | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
20 | = | Longford | 74.96 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
22 | = | Fermanagh | 71.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Wicklow | 70.21 | 0.00
24 | = | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
25 | = | Limerick | 68.18 | 0.00
26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00

Same As

laoisman11 wrote: »

No shocks to be seen in Croke Park on an All-Ireland Saturday approaching the winter solstice. Despite rattling Dublin for 55 minutes, Mayo were not only missing that extra piece of the jigsaw but they were also aware of it, with speculative shots and desperate actions providing even more ammunition to Dublin to lap up and punish.

The year finishes with Dublin again in the number 1 ranking place, a spot that they have occupied since September 2015. Their streak stands today at 1934 days, surpassing Kerry’s record from the 1930s (1631 days) and Kerry's more recent summit streak from the 78-82 vintage (1407 days). We are truly witnessing an all-time great team, and it looks likely that their reign will continue into the near future.

I will do up an end of year review over the holidays.

Merry Christmas! And may 2021 be less of a sh1t-fest than 2*2*.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 112.28 | 1.29
2 | = | Mayo | 104.17 | -1.29
3 | = | Kerry | 101.95 | 0.00
4 | = | Donegal | 98.77 | 0.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 98.15 | 0.00
6 | = | Cavan | 97.87 | 0.00
7 | = | Galway | 93.47 | 0.00
8 | = | Meath | 92.45 | 0.00
9 | = | Roscommon | 92.30 | 0.00
10 | = | Armagh | 90.76 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 86.53 | 0.00
12 | = | Monaghan | 86.52 | 0.00
13 | = | Laois | 85.56 | 0.00
14 | = | Tipperary | 85.05 | 0.00
15 | = | Kildare | 83.49 | 0.00
16 | = | Westmeath | 81.93 | 0.00
17 | = | Down | 80.98 | 0.00
18 | = | Clare | 79.52 | 0.00
19 | = | Derry | 76.64 | 0.00
20 | = | Longford | 74.96 | 0.00
21 | = | Offaly | 72.49 | 0.00
22 | = | Fermanagh | 71.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Wicklow | 70.21 | 0.00
24 | = | Antrim | 69.34 | 0.00
25 | = | Limerick | 68.18 | 0.00
26 | = | Leitrim | 67.85 | 0.00
27 | = | Carlow | 65.06 | 0.00
28 | = | Louth | 64.87 | 0.00
29 | = | Sligo | 61.82 | 0.00
30 | = | Wexford | 60.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 56.59 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 50.10 | 0.00

Thanks for sharing again this season!

theoneeyedman

Same As wrote: »

Thanks for sharing again this season!

+1,what he said, very interesting thread.

laoisman11

There is a certain familiarity to the top of the ranking table after what was a less than familiar year. The only change to the top 5 sees Mayo and Kerry swap positions for 2nd and 3rd. But in the lower ranks, there was considerable movement…..

Winners

• Tipperary: A massive 18 rating points and 11 ranking places gained, 2020 will live long in the memory with a first Munster title since 1935
• Wicklow; Promotion from Division 4 and Wexford’s scalp in the Leinster SFC were rewarded with gains of 11 rating points and 7 ranking places
• Cavan: Despite relegation from Division 2, their Ulster title win, beating 4 rivals along the way, results in a boost of 6 rating points and 2 ranking places for Cavan
• Honourable mention: Both Laois and Westmeath managed to increase their worth by exactly 6.06 rating points

Losers

• Fermanagh take top spot here with almost 11 rating points and 7 ranking places lost since the start of the year, following a bottom-of-the-table finish in Division 2 and a heavy championship loss to Down
• Waterford dropped almost 7 rating points – 2 wins and a draw in Division 4 and a heavy defeat to Limerick in Munster will make this a year to forget
• And the rest: Longford, Clare and Roscommon all lost approx. 6 rating points, with 4, 5 and 3 ranking places dropped, respectively

Rank|Team|Δ Rating|Δ Ranking
1 | Dublin | -2.55 | 0
2 | Mayo | 1.41 | 1
3 | Kerry | -4.81 | -1
4 | Donegal | -2.53 | 0
5 | Tyrone | -1.31 | 0
6 | Cavan | 6.42 | 2
7 | Galway | 0.72 | 0
8 | Meath | 3.31 | 2
9 | Roscommon | -5.65 | -3
10 | Armagh | 0.05 | -1
11 | Cork | 0.66 | 1
12 | Monaghan | 1.23 | 2
13 | Laois | 6.06 | 4
14 | Tipperary | 18.34 | 11
15 | Kildare | -3.41 | -4
16 | Westmeath | 6.06 | 3
17 | Down | 3.40 | 1
18 | Clare | -5.84 | -5
19 | Derry | 2.76 | 1
20 | Longford | -6.07 | -4
21 | Offaly | -0.82 | 0
22 | Fermanagh | -10.82 | -7
23 | Wicklow | 11.00 | 7
24 | Antrim | -2.59 | -2
25 | Limerick | 1.68 | 1
26 | Leitrim | -1.38 | -2
27 | Carlow | -4.84 | -4
28 | Louth | -1.10 | -1
29 | Sligo | -2.12 | -1
30 | Wexford | 1.37 | 1
31 | Waterford | -6.67 | -2
32 | New York | 0.00 | 0
33 | London | -1.96 | 0

Thanks again for all the work you do on this, it’s brilliant.

laoisman11

It's great to be back thinking about GAA, long evenings, cider and ice cream........

As in previous years, I have ranked teams in each division based on their rating points. This has been previously shown to give some indication of whether a team will finish in relegation/promotion territory.

2021 NFL
Div 1 N| Rating| Div 1 S| Rating| Div 2 N| Rating| Div 2 S| Rating| Div 3 N| Rating| Div 3 S| Rating| Div 4 N| Rating| Div 4 S| Rating

Donegal|99|Dublin|112|Mayo|104|Cork|87|Cavan|98|Tipperary|85|Antrim|69|Carlow|65
Tyrone|98|Kerry|102|Meath|92|Laois|86|Derry|77|Offaly|72|Leitrim|68|Wexford|60
Armagh|91|Galway|93|Westmeath|82|Kildare|83|Longford|75|Wicklow|70|Louth|65|Waterford|57
Monaghan|87|Roscommon|92|Down|81|Clare|80|Fermanagh|71|Limerick|68|Sligo|62|||

• In Division 1, it is hard to see beyond Dublin or Kerry as league winners, although one of the Ulster teams may pip Kerry in a semi-final. For relegation candidates, absolutely any of them could go down
• Mayo will be looking to bounce straight back out of Division 2, with Meath, Cork or potentially Kildare looking to join them. The remaining teams would be happy to hold their position
• The surprise packages of last year's championship, Cavan and Tipperary, stand head and shoulders above the other teams in Division 3, but both probably know that they will not have it their own way. Wicklow and Limerick to find the going too tough
• Antrim will have been disappointed to let last year's promotion challenge fizzle out. Any of the other teams could join them at the top

Previous year's finishes: tables are sorted by rating or ranking position prior to start of the league, colour indicate top 2 finish (green) or bottom 2 finish (red)

2020 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin |115|Roscommon|98|Cork|86|Antrim|72
Kerry |107|Cavan|91|Longford|81|Carlow|70
Mayo|103|Armagh|91|Down|78|Limerick|67
Donegal|101|Kildare|87|Derry|74|Sligo|64
Tyrone|99|Clare|85|Offaly|73|Waterford|63
Galway|93|Fermanagh|82|Leitrim|69|Wicklow|59
Meath|89|Laois|79|Tipperary|67|Wexford|59
Monaghan|85|Westmeath|76|Louth|66|London|52

2019 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 114|Donegal|95|Laois|86|Leitrim|70
Tyrone |106|Kildare|90|Carlow|80|Derry|70
Monaghan|104|Armagh|87|Longford|80|Antrim|66
Kerry|100|Cork|86|Down|77|Waterford|63
Galway|100|Clare|84|Sligo|74|Wexford|61
Mayo|91|Fermanagh|84|Westmeath|72|Limerick|61
Roscommon|88|Meath|80|Offaly|72|Wicklow|61
Cavan|85|Tipperary|78|Louth|63|London|52

2018 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111|Roscommon|91|Armagh|91|Carlow|73
Mayo |104|Cork|88|Westmeath|81|Laois|73
Kerry|101|Tipperary|85|Derry|79|Antrim|69
Tyrone|100|Clare|85|Longford|78|Limerick|65
Monaghan|93|Meath|83|Sligo|77|Leitrim|65
Galway|93|Down|82|Fermanagh|75|Waterford|57
Kildare|90|Cavan|82|Offaly|73|Wicklow|56
Donegal|88|Louth|69|Wexford|71|London|54

2017 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111 | Clare | 91| Tipperary | 92| Westmeath | 84
Kerry | 103 | Galway | 89 | Longford | 80| Wexford | 72
Mayo | 103 | Cork | 88| Laois | 78| Limerick | 71
Tyrone | 97 | Derry| 85 | Offaly | 77| Carlow | 64
Donegal | 96| Kildare | 84 | Sligo | 75| Leitrim | 63
Monaghan | 84| Fermanagh| 84| Armagh | 74 | Wicklow | 59
Roscommon | 83 | Meath | 82| Louth | 73 | London | 58
Cavan| 83 | Down | 73|Antrim | 68 | Waterford | 57

2016 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 109 | Tyrone | 96 | Kildare | 93 | Wexford | 76
Kerry | 104 | Galway | 90 | Westmeath | 81 | Antrim | 72
Mayo | 100 | Fermanagh| 89 | Sligo | 81 | Louth | 70
Donegal | 96 | Derry| 86 | Tipperary | 79 | Leitrim | 65
Monaghan | 96 | Meath | 83 | Longford | 78 | Wicklow | 61
Cork | 89 | Armagh | 83 | Clare | 73 | London | 61
Roscommon | 84 | Cavan | 75 | Limerick | 72 | Carlow | 61
Down| 77 | Laois | 72 | Offaly | 71 | Waterford | 56

2015 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Kerry | 1 | Kildare | 9 | Armagh | 7 | Longford | 22
Donegal | 2 | Meath | 10 | Tipperary | 15 | Antrim | 26
Dublin | 3 | Galway | 11 | Louth | 18 | Wicklow | 27
Mayo | 4 | Roscommon | 13 | Wexford | 19 | Leitrim | 28
Monaghan | 5 | Laois | 14 | Clare | 20 | Offaly | 29
Cork | 6 | Down | 16 | Fermanagh | 23 | London | 30
Tyrone | 8 | Cavan | 17 | Limerick | 24 | Carlow | 31
Derry | 12 | Westmeath | 21 | Sligo | 25 | Waterford | 32

2014 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Dublin | 1 | Donegal | 6 | Cavan | 12 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 2 | Monaghan | 7 | Wexford | 17 | Antrim | 26
Kerry | 3 | Meath | 9 | Roscommon | 19 | Clare | 27
Tyrone | 4 | Down | 10 | Limerick | 21 | Wicklow | 28
Cork | 5 | Laois | 11 | Fermanagh | 22 | London | 29
Kildare | 8 | Galway | 14 | Longford | 23 | Waterford | 30
Derry | 13 | Louth | 15 | Offaly | 24 | Leitrim | 31
Westmeath | 18 | Armagh | 16 | Sligo | 25 | Carlow | 32

2013 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Donegal | 1 | Laois | 9 | Meath | 10 | Limerick | 17
Cork | 2 | Armagh | 11 | Sligo | 15 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 3 | Wexford | 12 | Monaghan | 19 | Clare | 25
Kerry | 4 | Derry | 13 | Roscommon | 21 | Offaly | 27
Dublin | 5 | Galway | 14 | Antrim | 22 | Leitrim | 28
Tyrone | 6 | Westmeath | 16 | Cavan | 24 | Carlow | 29
Kildare | 7 | Longford | 18 | Wicklow | 26 | Waterford | 31
Down | 8 | Louth | 23 | Fermanagh | 30 | London | 33

The trend since 2013 shows that Munster have been moving up in the world. Perhaps an average rating point per province would be a more accurate indication of relative strengths of different provinces; I might have a look at it later on in the year.

Finishes per province (2013-2020 combined)

Province| Top 2 | Bottom 2
Leinster | 23 | 26
Ulster | 20 | 19
Connacht | 7 | 12*
Munster | 12 | 6
*Connacht's 12 bottom 2 finishes are not helped by London finishing last in Div 4 during 7 of the last 8 years.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

beggars_bush

laoisman11 wrote: »

It's great to be back thinking about GAA, long evenings, cider and ice cream........

As in previous years, I have ranked teams in each division based on their rating points. This has been previously shown to give some indication of whether a team will finish in relegation/promotion territory.

2021 NFL
Div 1 N| Rating| Div 1 S| Rating| Div 2 N| Rating| Div 2 S| Rating| Div 3 N| Rating| Div 3 S| Rating| Div 4 N| Rating| Div 4 S| Rating

Donegal|99|Dublin|112|Mayo|104|Cork|87|Cavan|98|Tipperary|85|Antrim|69|Carlow|65
Tyrone|98|Kerry|102|Meath|92|Laois|86|Derry|77|Offaly|72|Leitrim|68|Wexford|60
Armagh|91|Galway|93|Westmeath|82|Kildare|83|Longford|75|Wicklow|70|Louth|65|Waterford|57
Monaghan|87|Roscommon|92|Down|81|Clare|80|Fermanagh|71|Limerick|68|Sligo|62|||

• In Division 1, it is hard to see beyond Dublin or Kerry as league winners, although one of the Ulster teams may pip Kerry in a semi-final. For relegation candidates, absolutely any of them could go down
• Mayo will be looking to bounce straight back out of Division 2, with Meath, Cork or potentially Kildare looking to join them. The remaining teams would be happy to hold their position
• The surprise packages of last year's championship, Cavan and Tipperary, stand head and shoulders above the other teams in Division 3, but both probably know that they will not have it their own way. Wicklow and Limerick to find the going too tough
• Antrim will have been disappointed to let last year's promotion challenge fizzle out. Any of the other teams could join them at the top

Previous year's finishes: tables are sorted by rating or ranking position prior to start of the league, colour indicate top 2 finish (green) or bottom 2 finish (red)

2020 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin |115|Roscommon|98|Cork|86|Antrim|72
Kerry |107|Cavan|91|Longford|81|Carlow|70
Mayo|103|Armagh|91|Down|78|Limerick|67
Donegal|101|Kildare|87|Derry|74|Sligo|64
Tyrone|99|Clare|85|Offaly|73|Waterford|63
Galway|93|Fermanagh|82|Leitrim|69|Wicklow|59
Meath|89|Laois|79|Tipperary|67|Wexford|59
Monaghan|85|Westmeath|76|Louth|66|London|52

2019 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 114|Donegal|95|Laois|86|Leitrim|70
Tyrone |106|Kildare|90|Carlow|80|Derry|70
Monaghan|104|Armagh|87|Longford|80|Antrim|66
Kerry|100|Cork|86|Down|77|Waterford|63
Galway|100|Clare|84|Sligo|74|Wexford|61
Mayo|91|Fermanagh|84|Westmeath|72|Limerick|61
Roscommon|88|Meath|80|Offaly|72|Wicklow|61
Cavan|85|Tipperary|78|Louth|63|London|52

2018 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111|Roscommon|91|Armagh|91|Carlow|73
Mayo |104|Cork|88|Westmeath|81|Laois|73
Kerry|101|Tipperary|85|Derry|79|Antrim|69
Tyrone|100|Clare|85|Longford|78|Limerick|65
Monaghan|93|Meath|83|Sligo|77|Leitrim|65
Galway|93|Down|82|Fermanagh|75|Waterford|57
Kildare|90|Cavan|82|Offaly|73|Wicklow|56
Donegal|88|Louth|69|Wexford|71|London|54

2017 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 111 | Clare | 91| Tipperary | 92| Westmeath | 84
Kerry | 103 | Galway | 89 | Longford | 80| Wexford | 72
Mayo | 103 | Cork | 88| Laois | 78| Limerick | 71
Tyrone | 97 | Derry| 85 | Offaly | 77| Carlow | 64
Donegal | 96| Kildare | 84 | Sligo | 75| Leitrim | 63
Monaghan | 84| Fermanagh| 84| Armagh | 74 | Wicklow | 59
Roscommon | 83 | Meath | 82| Louth | 73 | London | 58
Cavan| 83 | Down | 73|Antrim | 68 | Waterford | 57

2016 NFL
Div 1| Rating| Div 2| Rating| Div 3| Rating| Div 4| Rating
Dublin | 109 | Tyrone | 96 | Kildare | 93 | Wexford | 76
Kerry | 104 | Galway | 90 | Westmeath | 81 | Antrim | 72
Mayo | 100 | Fermanagh| 89 | Sligo | 81 | Louth | 70
Donegal | 96 | Derry| 86 | Tipperary | 79 | Leitrim | 65
Monaghan | 96 | Meath | 83 | Longford | 78 | Wicklow | 61
Cork | 89 | Armagh | 83 | Clare | 73 | London | 61
Roscommon | 84 | Cavan | 75 | Limerick | 72 | Carlow | 61
Down| 77 | Laois | 72 | Offaly | 71 | Waterford | 56

2015 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Kerry | 1 | Kildare | 9 | Armagh | 7 | Longford | 22
Donegal | 2 | Meath | 10 | Tipperary | 15 | Antrim | 26
Dublin | 3 | Galway | 11 | Louth | 18 | Wicklow | 27
Mayo | 4 | Roscommon | 13 | Wexford | 19 | Leitrim | 28
Monaghan | 5 | Laois | 14 | Clare | 20 | Offaly | 29
Cork | 6 | Down | 16 | Fermanagh | 23 | London | 30
Tyrone | 8 | Cavan | 17 | Limerick | 24 | Carlow | 31
Derry | 12 | Westmeath | 21 | Sligo | 25 | Waterford | 32

2014 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Dublin | 1 | Donegal | 6 | Cavan | 12 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 2 | Monaghan | 7 | Wexford | 17 | Antrim | 26
Kerry | 3 | Meath | 9 | Roscommon | 19 | Clare | 27
Tyrone | 4 | Down | 10 | Limerick | 21 | Wicklow | 28
Cork | 5 | Laois | 11 | Fermanagh | 22 | London | 29
Kildare | 8 | Galway | 14 | Longford | 23 | Waterford | 30
Derry | 13 | Louth | 15 | Offaly | 24 | Leitrim | 31
Westmeath | 18 | Armagh | 16 | Sligo | 25 | Carlow | 32

2013 NFL
Div 1| Rank| Div 2| Rank| Div 3| Rank| Div 4| Rank
Donegal | 1 | Laois | 9 | Meath | 10 | Limerick | 17
Cork | 2 | Armagh | 11 | Sligo | 15 | Tipperary | 20
Mayo | 3 | Wexford | 12 | Monaghan | 19 | Clare | 25
Kerry | 4 | Derry | 13 | Roscommon | 21 | Offaly | 27
Dublin | 5 | Galway | 14 | Antrim | 22 | Leitrim | 28
Tyrone | 6 | Westmeath | 16 | Cavan | 24 | Carlow | 29
Kildare | 7 | Longford | 18 | Wicklow | 26 | Waterford | 31
Down | 8 | Louth | 23 | Fermanagh | 30 | London | 33

The trend since 2013 shows that Munster have been moving up in the world. Perhaps an average rating point per province would be a more accurate indication of relative strengths of different provinces; I might have a look at it later on in the year.

Finishes per province (2013-2020 combined)

Province| Top 2 | Bottom 2
Leinster | 23 | 26
Ulster | 20 | 19
Connacht | 7 | 12*
Munster | 12 | 6
*Connacht's 12 bottom 2 finishes are not helped by London finishing last in Div 4 during 7 of the last 8 years.

[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

Looks like Roscommon contributed a lot of them too in Div 1
And a lot of top 2 finishes in Div 2

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games:

Game|Prediction
Tyrone vs Donegal | Tyrone by 0.9
Kerry vs Galway | Kerry by 4.7
Mayo vs Down | Mayo by 10.6
Cork vs Kildare | Cork by 2
Longford vs Derry | Draw game
Fermanagh vs Cavan | Cavan by 9.8
Limerick vs Tipperary | Tipperary by 5.9
Louth vs Antrim | Draw game
Waterford vs Carlow | Carlow by 1.9
Monaghan vs Armagh | Armagh by 1.1
Roscommon vs Dublin | Dublin by 8.5
Meath vs Westmeath | Meath by 6.8
Clare vs Laois | Laois by 2.4
Wicklow vs Offaly | Offaly by 1.7
Sligo vs Leitrim | Draw game

laoisman11

Big wins for Clare, Sligo, Limerick and Fermanagh in the inaugral round of this year's NFL, while Kerry edge closer to 2nd place.......

(I have finally managed to sort out that error which resulted in the ratings at the start of every season being slightly different to the previous season; it is present again here, but it will be the last time)

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 112.86 | 0.00
2 | = | Mayo | 102.76 | 0.00
3 | = | Kerry | 102.34 | 1.25
4 | = | Donegal | 99.87 | 1.65
5 | = | Tyrone | 95.11 | -1.65
6 | = | Cavan | 93.61 | -3.00
7 | = | Galway | 93.19 | -1.25
8 | = | Meath | 92.77 | 0.44
9 | ▲ | Armagh | 90.93 | 1.28
10 | ▼ | Roscommon | 90.68 | 0.00
11 | ▲ | Monaghan | 86.16 | -1.28
12 | ▼ | Cork | 85.72 | -1.93
13 | ▲ 2 | Kildare | 85.26 | 1.93
14 | ▼ | Laois | 82.37 | -3.39
15 | ▲ 3 | Clare | 81.55 | 3.39
16 | = | Westmeath | 81.27 | -0.44
17 | ▼ 3 | Tipperary | 81.17 | -3.00
18 | ▲ | Derry | 80.20 | 2.51
19 | ▼ 2 | Down | 80.04 | 0.00
20 | ▲ | Offaly | 74.23 | 1.13
21 | ▲ | Fermanagh | 74.21 | 3.00
22 | ▼ 2 | Longford | 73.46 | -2.51
23 | ▲ 3 | Limerick | 70.69 | 3.00
24 | = | Antrim | 70.29 | 1.14
25 | ▼ 2 | Wicklow | 68.29 | -1.13
26 | ▲ 2 | Carlow | 65.76 | 1.15
27 | ▼ 2 | Leitrim | 64.98 | -3.32
28 | ▲ 2 | Sligo | 64.50 | 3.32
29 | ▼ 2 | Louth | 64.42 | -1.14
30 | ▼ | Wexford | 61.22 | 0.00
31 | = | New York | 58.08 | 0.00
32 | = | Waterford | 56.15 | -1.15
33 | = | London | 50.93 | 0.00
34 | = | Kilkenny | 44.93 | 0.00

Charles Babbage

Mickey Harte has room for upward movement for his new team.

laoisman11

Prediction model output for Round 2:

Game|Prediction
Donegal vs Monaghan | Donegal by 6.5
Armagh vs Tyrone | Draw game
Westmeath vs Mayo | Mayo by 8.9
Laois vs Cork | Cork by 1.3
Derry vs Fermanagh | Derry by 4.7
Cavan vs Longford | Cavan by 10.2
Offaly vs Limerick | Offaly by 4.5
Tipperary vs Wicklow | Tipperary by 6.4
Wexford vs Waterford | Wexford by 4.7
Dublin vs Kerry | Dublin by 3.4
Galway vs Roscommon | Galway by 2.9
Down vs Meath | Meath by 5.3
Kildare vs Clare | Kildare by 4.1
Leitrim vs Louth | Draw game
Antrim vs Sligo | Antrim by 4

laoisman11

• Louth and Waterford both gained more than 2 rating points with fine away wins against higher ranked opposition.
• In terms of ranking changes, Laois dropped 4 places following a heavy home defeat, while Derry and Louth both moved up 3 places in the rankings.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1|=|Dublin|111.81|-1.05
2|▲1|Kerry|103.39|1.05
3|▼-1|Mayo|102.76|0.00
4|=|Donegal|98.50|-1.37
5|=|Tyrone|96.19|1.08
6|▲1|Galway|95.06|1.87
7|▼-1|Cavan|93.61|0.00
8|=|Meath|93.11|0.34
9|=|Armagh|89.85|-1.08
10|=|Roscommon|88.81|-1.87
11|=|Monaghan|87.53|1.37
12|=|Cork|87.47|1.75
13|▲2|Clare|83.42|1.87
14|▼-1|Kildare|83.39|-1.87
15|▲3|Derry|81.55|1.35
16|▲1|Tipperary|81.38|0.21
17|▼-1|Westmeath|81.27|0.00
18|▼-4|Laois|80.62|-1.75
19|=|Down|79.70|-0.34
20|=|Offaly|75.38|1.15
21|▲1|Longford|73.46|0.00
22|▼-1|Fermanagh|72.86|-1.35
23|▲1|Antrim|71.21|0.92
24|▼-1|Limerick|69.54|-1.15
25|=|Wicklow|68.08|-0.21
26|▲3|Louth|66.75|2.33
27|▼-1|Carlow|65.76|0.00
28|=|Sligo|63.58|-0.92
29|▼-2|Leitrim|62.65|-2.33
30|=|Wexford|59.21|-2.01
31|▲1|Waterford|58.16|2.01
32|▼-1|New York|58.08|0.00
33|=|London|50.93|0.00
34|=|Kilkenny|44.93|0.00

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games, possibly to be taken with a grain of salt where a team has nothing to play for.........

Game|Prediction
Armagh vs Donegal | Donegal by 2.1
Tyrone vs Monaghan | Tyrone by 4.9
Cavan vs Derry | Cavan by 5.8
Fermanagh vs Longford | Fermanagh by 1
Wicklow vs Limerick | Wicklow by 1.1
Offaly vs Tipperary | Draw game
Carlow vs Wexford | Carlow by 2.3
Galway vs Dublin | Dublin by 5.7
Roscommon vs Kerry | Kerry by 6.1
Westmeath vs Down | Draw game
Mayo vs Meath | Mayo by 5.1
Clare vs Cork | Cork by 2.3
Laois vs Kildare | Draw game
Antrim vs Leitrim | Antrim by 5.8
Louth vs Sligo | Louth by 3.1

laoisman11

• Derry, Kildare and Limerick were the big winners this weekend in terms of rating point gains
• In terms of movement on the table, Down climbed 3 places, while Mayo regained second place from Kerry
• Derry have climbed 5 places since the start of the league, with Laois rapidly going the other way, dropping 6 places

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1|=|Dublin|111.81|0.00
2|▲1|Mayo|103.56|0.80
3|▼-1|Kerry|103.45|0.06
4|=|Donegal|97.64|-0.86
5|=|Tyrone|95.32|-0.87
6|=|Galway|95.06|0.00
7|▲1|Meath|92.31|-0.80
8|▼-1|Cavan|90.90|-2.71
9|=|Armagh|90.71|0.86
10|=|Roscommon|88.75|-0.06
11|▲1|Cork|88.57|1.10
12|▼-1|Monaghan|88.40|0.87
13|▲1|Kildare|86.06|2.67
14|▲1|Derry|84.26|2.71
15|▼-2|Clare|82.32|-1.10
16|▲3|Down|81.36|1.66
17|=|Westmeath|79.61|-1.66
18|▼-2|Tipperary|79.28|-2.10
19|▼-1|Laois|77.95|-2.67
20|=|Offaly|77.48|2.10
21|=|Longford|73.52|0.06
22|=|Fermanagh|72.80|-0.06
23|▲1|Limerick|72.01|2.47
24|▼-1|Antrim|71.85|0.64
25|▲1|Louth|68.52|1.77
26|▲1|Carlow|66.61|0.85
27|▼-2|Wicklow|65.61|-2.47
28|▲1|Leitrim|62.01|-0.64
29|▼-1|Sligo|61.81|-1.77
30|=|Wexford|58.36|-0.85
31|=|Waterford|58.16|0.00
32|=|New York|58.08|0.00
33|=|London|50.93|0.00

theoneeyedman

Hi @laoisman.

As always great work, back for another year!

A question: is it possible to see graphically teams position in the table over time? I'm particularly interested in Roscommon who are bouncing between D1 and D2 over the last 6 or 7 years

laoisman11

theoneeyedman wrote: »

Hi @laoisman.

As always great work, back for another year!

A question: is it possible to see graphically teams position in the table over time? I'm particularly interested in Roscommon who are bouncing between D1 and D2 over the last 6 or 7 years

I took the last 20 years, showing the ranking at the end of each league and championship, and of course I had to compare you to your nearest and dearest

Click on the image for a larger size:

theoneeyedman

laoisman11 wrote: »

I took the last 20 years, showing the ranking at the end of each league and championship, and of course I had to compare you to your nearest and dearest

Click on the image for a larger size:

Haha, Fvck you too

Nice one, thanks. Was just curious.

Charles Babbage

Roscommon well matched with Armagh in the relegation playoff.

theoneeyedman

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Roscommon well matched with Armagh in the relegation playoff.

Yes, not much between any of those teams between 5 and 10 above, and I'd probably include Monaghan in that bunch too. There has been a few good games between Roscommon and Armagh in recent years, they have been closely matched. If anything, Armagh may have shown better form in this league campaign so far, but nonetheless.... Be interesting to see what Laoisman's prediction model throws up.

Charles Babbage

theoneeyedman wrote: »

Yes, not much between any of those teams between 5 and 10 above, and I'd probably include Monaghan in that bunch too. There has been a few good games between Roscommon and Armagh in recent years, they have been closely matched. If anything, Armagh may have shown better form in this league campaign so far, but nonetheless.... Be interesting to see what Laoisman's prediction model throws up.

There are half a dozen teams who belong in Div 1. There are another few who might be in Div 1, including Roscommon, Armagh, Meath, Kildare and these are all involved in games shortly to decide their fate

beggars_bush

theoneeyedman wrote: »

Yes, not much between any of those teams between 5 and 10 above, and I'd probably include Monaghan in that bunch too. There has been a few good games between Roscommon and Armagh in recent years, they have been closely matched. If anything, Armagh may have shown better form in this league campaign so far, but nonetheless.... Be interesting to see what Laoisman's prediction model throws up.

Armagh will suit Roscommon as it will be high scoring with less emphasis on defending

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games below. Methinks the relegation battles will carry a lot more heat than the promotion battles.

Game|Prediction
Donegal vs Dublin | Dublin by 6.3
Kerry vs Tyrone | Kerry by 5.4
Down vs Laois | Down by 3
Cork vs Westmeath | Cork by 6.2
Derry vs Limerick | Derry by 7.1
Offaly vs Fermanagh | Offaly by 3.7
Cavan vs Wicklow | Cavan by 11.6
Carlow vs Louth | Louth by 1.7
Armagh vs Roscommon | Armagh by 2.3
Monaghan vs Galway | Galway by 2
Clare vs Mayo | Mayo by 9
Kildare vs Meath | Meath by 1.5
Longford vs Tipperary | Draw game
Waterford vs Antrim | Antrim by 6.4
Sligo vs Wexford | Sligo by 1.4

Charles Babbage

Monaghan and Kildare reversed the result and Kerry and Armagh well exceeded the predicted margin.

However Wicklow beating Cavan must be one of the bigger shocks in a while.

laoisman11

Yes, Wicklow beating Cavan was a big shock, but somewhat surprisingly, it wasn't the biggest shock of the weekend in terms of rating point exchange.

• Longford gained the most rating points last weekend following their bonus-point win over Tipperary. Tipp have now dropped an impressive 7 ranking places since the start of this year's league
• Next up were Wicklow after a shock win over Cavan, 3 rating points gained and Cavan drop 4 ranking places as a result
• Louth, Monaghan and Kildare were the other big winners from the last "proper" round of the 2021 NFL

I will do up an NFL review after the Div 3 league final.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1|=|Dublin|111.89|0.08
2|▲1|Kerry|104.48|1.03
3|▼-1|Mayo|103.56|0.00
4|=|Donegal|97.56|-0.08
5|=|Tyrone|94.29|-1.03
6|=|Galway|92.89|-2.17
7|▲2|Armagh|92.67|1.96
8|▲4|Monaghan|90.57|2.17
9|▼-2|Meath|90.18|-2.13
10|▲1|Cork|89.48|0.91
11|▲2|Kildare|88.19|2.13
12|▼-4|Cavan|87.90|-3.00
13|▼-3|Roscommon|86.79|-1.96
14|=|Derry|84.54|0.28
15|▲1|Down|83.10|1.74
16|▼-1|Clare|82.32|0.00
17|=|Westmeath|78.70|-0.91
18|▲2|Offaly|78.51|1.03
19|▲2|Longford|76.63|3.11
20|▼-1|Laois|76.21|-1.74
21|▼-3|Tipperary|76.17|-3.11
22|▲2|Antrim|72.05|0.20
23|▼-1|Fermanagh|71.77|-1.03
24|▼-1|Limerick|71.73|-0.28
25|=|Louth|71.06|2.54
26|▲1|Wicklow|68.61|3.00
27|▼-1|Carlow|64.07|-2.54
28|=|Leitrim|62.01|0.00
29|▲1|Wexford|61.13|2.77
30|▼-1|Sligo|59.04|-2.77
31|▲1|New York|58.08|0.00
32|▼-1|Waterford|57.96|-0.20
33|=|London|50.93|0.00

laoisman11

Game|Prediction
Derry vs Offaly | Derry by 2.8

laoisman11

No ranking change for either of the Div 3 finalists...........I will follow up with an end of league review shortly.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1|=|Dublin|111.89|0.00
2|=|Kerry|104.48|0.00
3|=|Mayo|103.56|0.00
4|=|Donegal|97.56|0.00
5|=|Tyrone|94.29|0.00
6|=|Galway|92.89|0.00
7|=|Armagh|92.67|0.00
8|=|Monaghan|90.57|0.00
9|=|Meath|90.18|0.00
10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00
11|=|Kildare|88.19|0.00
12|=|Cavan|87.90|0.00
13|=|Roscommon|86.79|0.00
14|=|Derry|85.89|1.35
15|=|Down|83.10|0.00
16|=|Clare|82.32|0.00
17|=|Westmeath|78.70|0.00
18|=|Offaly|77.16|-1.35
19|=|Longford|76.63|0.00
20|=|Laois|76.21|0.00
21|=|Tipperary|76.17|0.00
22|=|Antrim|72.05|0.00
23|=|Fermanagh|71.77|0.00
24|=|Limerick|71.73|0.00
25|=|Louth|71.06|0.00
26|=|Wicklow|68.61|0.00
27|=|Carlow|64.07|0.00
28|=|Leitrim|62.01|0.00
29|=|Wexford|61.13|0.00
30|=|Sligo|59.04|0.00
31|=|New York|58.08|0.00
32|=|Waterford|57.96|0.00
33|=|London|50.93|0.00

dobman88

Hopefully that puts to bed the delusional myth of Cavan being a top 6 side :pac:

Been great following this table. Fair play for the work put into it

Kevhog1988

laoisman11 wrote: »

No ranking change for either of the Div 3 finalists...........I will follow up with an end of league review shortly.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1|=|Dublin|111.89|0.00
2|=|Kerry|104.48|0.00
3|=|Mayo|103.56|0.00
4|=|Donegal|97.56|0.00
5|=|Tyrone|94.29|0.00
6|=|Galway|92.89|0.00
7|=|Armagh|92.67|0.00
8|=|Monaghan|90.57|0.00
9|=|Meath|90.18|0.00
10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00
11|=|Kildare|88.19|0.00
12|=|Cavan|87.90|0.00
13|=|Roscommon|86.79|0.00
14|=|Derry|85.89|1.35
15|=|Down|83.10|0.00
16|=|Clare|82.32|0.00
17|=|Westmeath|78.70|0.00
18|=|Offaly|77.16|-1.35
19|=|Longford|76.63|0.00
20|=|Laois|76.21|0.00
21|=|Tipperary|76.17|0.00
22|=|Antrim|72.05|0.00
23|=|Fermanagh|71.77|0.00
24|=|Limerick|71.73|0.00
25|=|Louth|71.06|0.00
26|=|Wicklow|68.61|0.00
27|=|Carlow|64.07|0.00
28|=|Leitrim|62.01|0.00
29|=|Wexford|61.13|0.00
30|=|Sligo|59.04|0.00
31|=|New York|58.08|0.00
32|=|Waterford|57.96|0.00
33|=|London|50.93|0.00

Considering Kildare beath both meath and cork in the nfl is it not somewhat unfair to place them below them?

Hammer Archer

Kevhog1988 wrote: »

Considering Kildare beath both meath and cork in the nfl is it not somewhat unfair to place them below them?

It's not about who beats who. Clare beat Kildare in the league and are way behind them. Kildare were in 15th at the start of the league so the points they obtained in the league weren't enough for them to overhaul Cork and Meath. Had they not lost to Clare, they'd most likely be in 8th or 9th.

laoisman11

And we're off....

I haven't even had a chance to do up the end of league review, and 7 teams will be gone out of the championship in 2 days time. It's all a bit hectic, and this can lead to some shocks.

I had also updated the code I use to create the tables etc, and I haven't yet got around to aligning the new code with the extended prediction PDF format, so for now, the condensed version below will have to do.

Game|Prediction
Kerry vs Clare | Kerry by 12.4
Limerick vs Waterford | Limerick by 6.8
Sligo vs Mayo | Mayo by 17.5
Down vs Donegal | Donegal by 4.3
Offaly vs Louth | Offaly by 2.9
Carlow vs Longford | Longford by 6.1
Wicklow vs Wexford | Wicklow by 3.4

laoisman11

Finally got around to doing this.......

Big winners from the 2021 NFL

• By a large margin, Derry are the big winners with 8.2 rating points gained and a jump of 5 places in the rankings (in addition to being the only "sole" league winners of 2021)
• Louth improved their worth by 5.5 rating points on the way to gaining promotion from Division 4
• An extra 4.86 rating points for Kildare as they impressed on their return to Division 1
• Honorable mentions to Clare, Offaly and Limerick who all gained more than 4 rating points

Big losers

• It gives me absolutely no joy to start the list with my home county, but it was an absolutely disastrous league, with Laois losing all their matches by more than 6 points. 9.55 rating points lost in total (I will, if I get time, have a look at the best/worst league and championship performances of all time)
• Cavan and Tipp make up the rest of this list, but it has to be acknowledged that both started the year from highly elevated positions. A league to forget for both, and it must be rare that provincial champions drop to Division 4
• Honorable mention to Leitrim who lost 6.29 rating points as they finished the league without a win

Rank|Team|Δ Rating|Δ Ranking
1 | Dublin | -0.97 | 0
2 | Kerry | 3.39 | 1
3 | Mayo | 0.80 | -1
4 | Donegal | -0.66 | 0
5 | Tyrone | -2.47 | 0
6 | Galway | -1.55 | 1
7 | Armagh | 3.02 | 3
8 | Monaghan | 3.13 | 4
9 | Meath | -2.15 | -1
10 | Cork | 1.83 | 1
11 | Kildare | 4.86 | 4
12 | Cavan | -8.71 | -6
13 | Roscommon | -3.89 | -4
14 | Derry | 8.20 | 5
15 | Down | 3.06 | 2
16 | Clare | 4.16 | 2
17 | Westmeath | -3.01 | -1
18 | Offaly | 4.06 | 3
19 | Longford | 0.66 | 1
20 | Laois | -9.55 | -7
21 | Tipperary | -8.00 | -7
22 | Antrim | 2.90 | 2
23 | Fermanagh | 0.56 | -1
24 | Limerick | 4.04 | 2
25 | Louth | 5.50 | 2
26 | Wicklow | -0.81 | -3
27 | Carlow | -0.54 | 1
28 | Leitrim | -6.29 | -3
29 | Wexford | -0.09 | 0
30 | Sligo | -2.14 | 0
31 | New York | 0.00 | 0
32 | Waterford | 0.66 | 0

laoisman11

Most of the movement was at the bottom end of the table:

• Wexford were the surprise package following the first round of the 2021 SFC, with an excellent win away from home over Wicklow - an increase of 3 ranking places was achieved
• Offaly's bonus point win over Louth helps the Faithful to continue their ascent in 2021

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1|=|Dublin|111.89|0.00
2|=|Kerry|104.48|0.00
3|=|Mayo|103.56|0.00
4|=|Donegal|97.72|0.16
5|=|Tyrone|94.29|0.00
6|=|Galway|92.89|0.00
7|=|Armagh|92.67|0.00
8|=|Monaghan|90.57|0.00
9|=|Meath|90.18|0.00
10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00
11|=|Kildare|88.19|0.00
12|=|Cavan|87.90|0.00
13|=|Roscommon|86.79|0.00
14|=|Derry|85.89|0.00
15|=|Down|82.94|-0.16
16|=|Clare|82.32|0.00
17|▲1|Offaly|79.83|2.67
18|▼-1|Westmeath|78.70|0.00
19|=|Longford|77.36|0.73
20|=|Laois|76.21|0.00
21|=|Tipperary|76.17|0.00
22|▲2|Limerick|72.10|0.37
23|▼-1|Antrim|72.05|0.00
24|▼-1|Fermanagh|71.77|0.00
25|=|Louth|68.39|-2.67
26|▲3|Wexford|65.63|4.50
27|▼-1|Wicklow|64.11|-4.50
28|▼-1|Carlow|63.34|-0.73
29|▼-1|Leitrim|62.01|0.00
30|=|Sligo|59.04|0.00
31|=|New York|58.08|0.00
32|=|Waterford|57.59|-0.37
33|=|London|50.93|0.00

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games:

Game|Prediction
Monaghan vs Fermanagh | Monaghan by 9.1
Armagh vs Antrim | Armagh by 9.4
Roscommon vs Galway | Galway by 1.9
Laois vs Westmeath | Draw game
Meath vs Longford | Meath by 7.6
Wexford vs Dublin | Dublin by 18.4
Kildare vs Offaly | Kildare by 3.6

Charles Babbage

Westmeath very definitely won their game and Dublin did not make close to their big margin, but the other games will not lead to large changes in the table.

laoisman11

Apologies, I haven't been here in a while, due to a combination of no internet at home, the boards changeover, and a fear of how the new boards is going to deal with tables (I haven't seen any tables inserted since, and I don't see any options below to insert).

I am off on holidays for the next 2 weeks, and I am not bringing the computer with me, so next update will be after the weekend of the 15th of August...just in time for the final :-)

Blackjack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671694#Comment_117671694

looking forward to the next update!

What.Now

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117763738#Comment_117763738

Does not compute....Does not compute........DOES NOT COMPUTE..............BOOM...

Tables can't handle a Dublin loss.

Hammer Archer

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117671694#Comment_117671694

So you can supposedly paste tables directly from Excel, though they show up as images.

I hope you stick with the forum. I agree that the changeover hasn't been great but they'll hopefully improve it gradually. Tables will supposedly be back in the future as per this post: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058204125/how-do-i-do-tables-in-the-new-boards#latest

laoisman11

Huge congratulations to Mayo after an extraordinary game, extraordinary to see Dublin beaten in the championship, extraordinary to see them looking so poor, extraordinary to see the jubilant scenes at the final whistle.

The ranking table below is the accumulation of the 4 provincial finals plus the All-Ireland semi-final.

The big news is that following wins against Galway and Dublin, Mayo have jumped 2 places into top position. It is the first time that they have topped the table since August 2004!

Dublin drop off the top, a position which they have held since March 2015. Their stay at the pinnacle has been record-breaking.

[table]#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating

1|▲2|Mayo|109.70|6.14

2|▼-1|Dublin|107.58|-4.30

3|▼-1|Kerry|104.48|0.00

4|=|Tyrone|103.25|1.43

5|▲2|Donegal|93.40|0.00

6|▼-1|Galway|92.84|-1.84

7|▼-1|Monaghan|92.56|-1.43

8|=|Kildare|91.10|0.00

9|=|Meath|90.84|0.00

10|=|Cork|89.48|0.00

11|=|Armagh|89.25|0.00

12|=|Cavan|85.32|0.00

13|=|Derry|85.25|0.00

14|=|Roscommon|85.01|0.00

15|=|Down|82.93|0.00

16|=|Clare|82.33|0.00

17|=|Westmeath|80.86|0.00

18|=|Offaly|78.50|0.00

19|=|Longford|76.71|0.00

20|=|Tipperary|76.17|0.00

21|=|Laois|72.46|0.00

22|=|Limerick|72.10|0.00

23|=|Antrim|72.05|0.00

24|=|Fermanagh|71.77|0.00

25|=|Louth|68.39|0.00

26|=|Wexford|65.63|0.00

27|=|Wicklow|64.12|0.00

28|=|Carlow|63.34|0.00

29|=|Leitrim|62.00|0.00

30|=|Sligo|59.04|0.00

31|=|New York|58.08|0.00

32|=|Waterford|57.60|0.00

33|=|London|50.93|0.00

[/table]

theoneeyedman

Wrote this earlier in the week and didn't post it, fuckin new Boards!

Yea. @laoisman keep up the good work, I find it interesting and informative anyway.

If the boards thing is too awkward, and it is a bit messy, let us know if you have an alternative outlet for your models.

Interesting that Mayo go top now - in some ways justifies and validates your modelling, in another less so, with Dublin losing top spot with one loss in 7 years.

Either way, top work!

L'prof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117783192#Comment_117783192

They’re top but only just. I’d imagine they’ll have to bring Sam home to remain top and if they do then they surely deserve to be seen as the best team in the country right now?