Football ranking table

laoisman11

Hard to believe that there are only 3 games left in the championship (barring draws, of course). It feels like it is almost over before it has begun and it will be interesting to see if the Super 8’s will extend the ecstacy, or prolong the agony, next summer.

There was a lot of talk in the last few weeks about the big 3, and how Mayo have now joined the big 3 after their dismantling of Roscommon. I’m sure it’s a stat that came up elsewhere, but with the exception of Kerry in 2012, Mayo, Kerry and Dublin have got to the semi-final stage every year for the last 7 years.

With regard to last weekend’s results:

• Both Tyrone and Mayo gained rating points following their bonus point wins over Armagh and Roscommon, respectively.
• There is a huge gap from 4th back to 5th, although this could change slightly if Tyrone, Kerry or Mayo get a big beating in their semi-finals.
• Monaghan and Galway were the inadvertent winners from Armagh and Roscommon's downfalls.
• No rating points were exchanged in the Dublin - Monaghan game

*Teams in bold still active in the championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 104.86 | 0.00
3 | = | Tyrone | 103.01 | 2.34
4 | = | Mayo | 101.70 | 3.01
5 | ▲ 2 | Monaghan | 92.65 | 0.00
6 | ▲ 2 | Galway | 92.56 | 0.00
7 | ▼ | Armagh | 91.14 | -2.34
8 | ▼ 3 | Roscommon | 90.73 | -3.01
9 | = | Kildare | 89.75 | 0.00
10 | = | Donegal | 88.07 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 87.73 | 0.00
12 | = | Tipperary | 84.86 | 0.00
13 | = | Clare | 84.69 | 0.00
14 | = | Meath | 83.26 | 0.00
15 | = | Down | 82.42 | 0.00
16 | = | Cavan | 81.54 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.68 | 0.00
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | = | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 73.10 | 0.00
24 | = | Laois | 73.06 | 0.00
25 | = | Wexford | 70.88 | 0.00
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 64.79 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

Jayop

Really hard to argue with that top 10 order. Maybe Tyrone and Mayo could be switched around but I guess given Mayo's bad results against Galway, Derry and the Ross draw it's probably right enough in theory. Donegal have fallen off a cliff and it's amazing that 10th is probably about right.

elefant

ciarriaithuaidh wrote: »

Were Kildare any less "wide open" than Galway were Sunday in allowing a Kerry team performing way below its best score 1-18, 1-16 of which was from play? Surely not? Armagh's attacking play, epitomised by Jamie Clarke's movement and some outstanding long-range shooting, was the difference.

Kerry got a "bonus point" for beating Galway seemingly, due to Galway's proximity to them in the ranking - they were ranked 5th last week before the Kerry game, despite being totally outplayed at home by Roscommon and playing terribly. They then beat a Donegal team that put in probably their worst performance since 2010. Any system that has this Galway team ranked 5th in the country at ANY point in the last few years is just totally flawed.

Cork we're almost heading for Div 3 this year at one point. They are in disarray and almost lost to Waterford, scraped by Tipperary and got hammered by Kerry.
They produce their best performance of the year and take a division 1 team and finalists last year, to extra time, losing by 1, and they LOSE points on the rankings? Explain that to me?

I submit, some of ye need to start watching games more rather than looking at raw data and some prediction model. I'll leave ye to it.

Regardless of the fact that your subjective analysis rightly has zero impact on how the ranking table works, I disagree with pretty much all of it. It's very basic and knee-jerk.

The fact you feel that Kildare should have been rewarded for losing to a team that didn't get out of division three this year, whereas Kerry shouldn't have seen a bump for a comprehensive win over the division 2 winners, says it all about your 'reality on the ground'!

Westernyelp

It's funny how some people can't separate statistics from emotion

lostcat

Looks odd to see three Connacht teams and only one Munster team in the top 10....but probably feels about right given this years championship...

blanch152

A couple of things stand out for me:

- the Championship only starts now, the top four are way ahead

- only three Leinster teams in the top 16, it gets worse and worse.

Boom__Boom

In terms of a comparison between league places next year and the ranking table.

The 8 teams in Division 1 are currently ranked 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,10 (even though the ranking order may chance all 6 of Kerry, Dublin, Mayo, Tyrone, Monaghan and Galway will be in Division 1 next year.

The 8 teams in Division 2 are currently ranked 8,11,12,13,14,15,16,26

The 8 teams in Division 3 are currently ranked 7,17,18,19,20,21,22,25

The 8 teams in Division 4 are currently ranked 23, 24, 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, 33

Armagh and Louth are the two big anomalies - Armagh still in Division 3 next year but ranked 7th on the table. whole Louth are in Division 2 but ranked 26th.

Overall the league results this year seemed to do a very good job in terms of predicting whereabouts teams would end up after the championship. I know that the league results are obviously a sizable enough factor in creating the table, but it would be interesting to see how previous years compare to this.

danganabu

Boom__Boom wrote: »

In terms of a comparison between league places next year and the ranking table.

The 8 teams in Division 1 are currently ranked 1,2,3,4,5,6,9,10 (even though the ranking order may chance all 6 of Kerry, Dublin, Mayo, Tyrone, Monaghan and Galway will be in Division 1 next year.

The 8 teams in Division 2 are currently ranked 8,11,12,13,14,15,16,26

The 8 teams in Division 3 are currently ranked 7,17,18,19,20,21,22,25

The 8 teams in Division 4 are currently ranked 23, 24, 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, 33

Armagh and Louth are the two big anomalies - Armagh still in Division 3 next year but ranked 7th on the table. whole Louth are in Division 2 but ranked 26th.

And in the case of Armagh they were seconds away from Div. 2 and will be strong favs to be promoted next year.

Mr Starman

If ever there was a team living on past glories it's Armagh, but some how the media seem to love them. They might make more progress if they didn't keep believing their own hype every year.

Anyway the reality check is they got blown out the gate by Tyrone with an 18 point defeat and.....yeah they're still in division 3.

The media still loves them, but the average GAA fan knows the real story, They're sh*te!

Blackjack

Mr Starman wrote: »

If ever there was a team living on past glories it's Armagh, but some how the media seem to love them. They might make more progress if they didn't keep believing their own hype every year.

Anyway the reality check is they got blown out the gate by Tyrone with an 18 point defeat and.....yeah they're still in division 3.

The media still loves them, but the average GAA fan knows the real story, They're sh*te!

I put it down to the McGeeney factor myself. Media seem to rate him very highly, which given his lack of achievement at management level is a bit surprising.

OldMrBrennan83

This post has been deleted.

Stoner

Well Kildare took a serious dive when he left.

keane2097

Any player who is ever involved with him you hear interviewed seems to give him the most glowing praise imaginable. Whatever about his success relative to the squads he's worked with I'd say he is a hell of a guy.

BonnieSituation

Stoner wrote: »

Well Kildare took a serious dive when he left.

keane2097 wrote: »

Any player who is ever involved with him you hear interviewed seems to give him the most glowing praise imaginable. Whatever about his success relative to the squads he's worked with I'd say he is a hell of a guy.

I don't think it's an accident that he "holds onto" these jobs as some people here seem to think. He improved Kildare and was needlessly thrown out on his ear and look what happened to them. The QF v Kerry a couple of years back was one of the most abject performances I've ever seen in HQ. It made Tommy Walsh look like a world beater again.

So to see the slow progress he's making with Armagh shows that he is doing things with them but look at the state of Armagh football when he took over.

The media were bigging Armagh up but I don't think anyone with a modicum of a notion would have thought that Tyrone wouldn't turn them over.

He was in charge in 2015 when they got promoted to Division 2 and then they get relegates in 2016 on points difference (4th to 7th place all ended on 6 points) and then in 2017 was a few seconds from promotion.

Armagh will canter into Division 2 next year and no doubt the experience of this year will stand to them in the Championship.

J Cheever Loophole

Mr Starman wrote: »

If ever there was a team living on past glories it's Armagh, but some how the media seem to love them. They might make more progress if they didn't keep believing their own hype every year.

Anyway the reality check is they got blown out the gate by Tyrone with an 18 point defeat and.....yeah they're still in division 3.

The media still loves them, but the average GAA fan knows the real story, They're sh*te!

I was in the process of reading your post with the intention of actually debating with you until I came to your last phrase and suddenly realized meaningful debate really isn't an option.

danganabu

Mr Starman wrote: »

If ever there was a team living on past glories it's Armagh, but the average GAA fan knows the real story, They're sh*te!

J Cheever Loophole wrote: »

I was in the process of reading your post with the intention of actually debating with you until I came to your last phrase and suddenly realized meaningful debate really isn't an option.

The irony being that he is from Galway

blowitupref

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I don't think it's an accident that he

Armagh will canter into Division 2 next year and no doubt the experience of this year will stand to them in the Championship.

I thought Armagh would do that this year yet Louth were the first promoted team and they then allowed Tipp to grab the 2nd promotion spot on the last day with a late goal. Derry and Fermanagh will be pushing hard for promotion back to div 2 in 2018 i can imagine and Westmeath maybe too.

laoisman11

Prediction model output for the first of the semi-finals attached.

Kerry's form has been better than expected in this championship, with the exception of the Clare game, whereas Mayo's has been topsy turvy. However, Mayo have had 7 games to establish their, at times, nerve-wracking run to the semis, while Kerry have barely been tested. They will be severely tested here.

Really looking forward to this one!

tl;dr Kerry by 2.0

Jayop

Would be great at the end of the year to calculate how many results the model got right in percentage terms and of those what was the average difference between predictions and actual score.

BonnieSituation

Jayop wrote: »

Would be great at the end of the year if Laoisman was to calculate how many results the model got right in percentage terms and of those what was the average difference between predictions and actual score.

FTFY

nice_guy80

so wait, Roscommon beat Galway, who beat Mayo and then Roscommon drew with Mayo the first day, yet they are ranked below Galway, Monaghan and Armagh just because those teams played an extra game or two to get into the quarter final

What was Roscommon's average winning margin v Leitrim and Galway?

PARlance

nice_guy80 wrote: »

so wait, Roscommon beat Galway, who beat Mayo and then Roscommon drew with Mayo the first day, yet they are ranked below Galway, Monaghan and Armagh just because those teams played an extra game or two to get into the quarter final

What was Roscommon's average winning margin v Leitrim and Galway?

Seems about right. Roscommon were up to 5th after the drawn game but a 22 point hammering is going to see a big tumble.

Syferus

nice_guy80 wrote: »

so wait, Roscommon beat Galway, who beat Mayo and then Roscommon drew with Mayo the first day, yet they are ranked below Galway, Monaghan and Armagh just because those teams played an extra game or two to get into the quarter final

What was Roscommon's average winning margin v Leitrim and Galway?

These sorts of rankings are cute talking points but are obviously inherently flawed. Don't bother over-thinking it.

elefant

PARlance wrote: »

Seems about right. Roscommon were up to 5th after the drawn game but a 22 point hammering is going to see a big tumble.

They also played 11 competitive games this year, and only won 3.

Edit: And one of those wins was against Leitrim, who are ranked so far behind them it doesn't count for any ranking points.

laoisman11

Jayop wrote: »

Would be great at the end of the year to calculate how many results the model got right in percentage terms and of those what was the average difference between predictions and actual score.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

FTFY

Have a look at the Pools thread, where with the exception of one or 2 predictions that I changed at the start of the championship (and it turned out that I was wrong and the model was right, so I dropped my interfering), and you will see that it has been a disastrous championship for the prediction model.

What is more interesting (to me, anyways) is to look at the performance of the model over a series of years and see if we are moving away or closer to perfection. In saying that, no model is going to predict Roscommon's Connacht final win, nor the magnitudes of the 4 quarter-final wins.

laoisman11

Mayo edge closer to Kerry, maybe another draw will help?

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 106.11 | 0.00
2 | = | Kerry | 104.23 | -0.63
3 | = | Tyrone | 103.01 | 0.00
4 | = | Mayo | 102.33 | 0.63

homewardbound11

What are we Looking at if there is a mayo win in normal time on Saturday. 105?

laoisman11

homewardbound11 wrote: »

What are we Looking at if there is a mayo win in normal time on Saturday. 105?

105.7 ish for a win of less than 6 points, in normal or extra time.

TITANIUM.

laoisman11 wrote: »

105.7 ish for a win of less than 6 points, in normal or extra time.

And how much for Kerry when they cruise it by 8?

laoisman11

TITANIUM. wrote: »

And how much for Kerry when they cruise it by 8?

They would top 108 and move to number 1! But we all know that this is the 3rd place playoff; the real final is on Sunday :-)