Football ranking table

homewardbound11

TITANIUM. wrote: »

And how much for Kerry when they cruise it by 8?

And Kerry were deliriously optimistic before last Sunday. With a shabby defence as they have shown they might as well hope mayo win. As otherwise Dublin would tear that Kerry defence apart. At least with mayo there a replay is likely .

keane2097

homewardbound11 wrote: »

And Kerry were deliriously optimistic before last Sunday. With a shabby defence as they have shown they might as well hope mayo win. As otherwise Dublin would tear that Kerry defence apart. At least with mayo there a replay is likely .

Jayop

laoisman11 wrote: »

They would top 108 and move to number 1! But we all know that this is the 3rd place playoff; the real final is on Sunday :-)

Jayop laoisemam11

BonnieSituation

keane2097 wrote: »

Missed you!

Same As

homewardbound11 wrote: »

And Kerry were deliriously optimistic before last Sunday. With a shabby defence as they have shown they might as well hope mayo win. As otherwise Dublin would tear that Kerry defence apart. At least with mayo there a replay is likely .

Didn't realise Dublin were already in the final?

BonnieSituation

Same As wrote: »

Didn't realise Dublin were already in the final?

Where have you been.

Dublin-Tyrone IS the Final.

Same As

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Where have you been.

Dublin-Tyrone IS the Final.

To quote Keane...

laoisman11

Prediction model output for this weekend's games attached.

• Mayo have continued their "2 better than expected - 2 worse than expected" game run, but can they break the trend this weekend?
• I noted earlier in the year how Dublin were not performing better than expected, but they seem to have bucked that trend in the last 3 games; Tyrone are on a 4 game streak of performing better than expected
• Dublin have not over-performed vs Tyrone since 2011

tl;dr
Kerry by 1.8
Dublin by 3.8

Jayop

About what you'd expect really from the model. Hopefully Tyrone can keep over performing and Dublin can underperform. a 2 point swing both directions could be enough.

HurlingRanker

laoisman11 wrote: »

Have a look at the Pools thread, where with the exception of one or 2 predictions that I changed at the start of the championship (and it turned out that I was wrong and the model was right, so I dropped my interfering), and you will see that it has been a disastrous championship for the prediction model.

What is more interesting (to me, anyways) is to look at the performance of the model over a series of years and see if we are moving away or closer to perfection. In saying that, no model is going to predict Roscommon's Connacht final win, nor the magnitudes of the 4 quarter-final wins.

It really wouldn't be good for a sport if a prediction model was consistently accurate because a requirement for that would be for nothing to ever really change. This prediction model is an excellent foundation, it pretty much tells you the expected result based on what has happened up to this point ignoring many other factors- from here it's up to the reader/punter to take other factors into account - injuries, suspensions, player retirements, managerial changes, preparation, the mood in the panel, weather and plenty others I'm sure I've overlooked.

On the hurling thread, I actually love it when a prediction is incorrect, because it means things are changing, some teams are getting more competitive, others are falling away a bit. Nice and dynamic. No prediction model would have called the Wexford or Waterford wins over Kilkenny but there were plenty of warning signs for us punters that all was not as well as it could be for Kilkenny this year.

By the way, what you've done in terms of the pdf documents on the predictions is outstanding! Like this thread, they're a great read.

CrabRevolution

I've often considered the dynamism of the rankings alright.

Am I right in saying that if a ranking system ever was 100% accurate it would barely move, or move at glacial speed, as the predicted results would always occur in real life and there'd be no need for any large redistributions of ranking points?

laoisman11

• Tyrone were perhaps unfortunate to come up against the Dublin machine; they might have had a better result against one of the other 2 teams
• In any case, they will finish the year in 4th, just behind Kerry
• All that remains to play for is first and second (and of course the tag of champions of Ireland!)

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 108.78 | 2.67
2 | ▲ 2 | Mayo | 105.71 | 3.38
3 | ▼ | Kerry | 100.85 | -3.38
4 | ▼ | Tyrone | 100.34 | -2.67
5 | = | Monaghan | 92.65 | 0.00
6 | = | Galway | 92.56 | 0.00

homewardbound11

You probably have the final predictions and points all ready .
Will mayo pop Dublin off the top with a 1 point win ?

J Cheever Loophole

There has been a lot of talk all year about the top four, and whilst that is undoubtedly the case looking at the figures, it is interesting to note (for me anyway) that the gap between first and fourth is greater than between fourth and fifth. For me it begs the question as to just how relevant is the notion of a 'top four' anymore.

DoctaDee

J Cheever Loophole wrote: »

There has been a lot of talk all year about the top four, and whilst that is undoubtedly the case looking at the figures, it is interesting to note (for me anyway) that the gap between first and fourth is greater than between fourth and fifth. For me it begs the question as to just how relevant is the notion of a 'top four' anymore.

Yeah fair point .. extending top 3,4,5 etc lists in sport tend to be to broaden the scope of interest/debate and there's also an inferred parity to be drawn between the teams. There's merit in say the top 5 places to eat or visit etc, however football for the last few years hasn't operated like that

seligehgit

Any sign of a verdict on the final?

laoisman11

seligehgit wrote: »

Any sign of a verdict on the final?

I'll try to post it up tonight if I get time.......

I was having a look at subs and their use in games, especially with all the talk of which bench is superior.........

Some interesting findings:

• Dublin have used 6 subs in each game, whereas Mayo fluctutate between 4 and 6 subs
• 4 of Dublin's subs have come on in the last 5 minutes of the game, compared to 10 of Mayo's subs. That's 0.8 subs per game for Dublin, 1.1 subs per game for Mayo (I have a dislike (illogical, perhaps) of subs being brought on with less than 5 mins to go - I don't think it allows them time to get into the game and to contribute)
• Dublin's subs have scored 3-20 of their 9-107 total (20.2%) vs 1-16 of Mayo's 15-133 (10.6%) (does not include extra-time periods in Mayo's games with Derry and Cork)
• In 3 of Mayo's games, the subs have not contributed to the scoreboard
• Each of Dublin's subs comes on slightly earlier than Mayo's, with the average Dublin sub spending 16.6 minutes on the field, compared to 12.8 for Mayo (does not include subs who came on before HT as injury/black card replacements)

seligehgit

laoisman11 wrote: »

I'll try to post it up tonight if I get time.......

I was having a look at subs and their use in games, especially with all the talk of which bench is superior.........

Some interesting findings:

• Dublin have used 6 subs in each game, whereas Mayo fluctutate between 4 and 6 subs
• 4 of Dublin's subs have come on in the last 5 minutes of the game, compared to 10 of Mayo's subs. That's 0.8 subs per game for Dublin, 1.1 subs per game for Mayo (I have a dislike (illogical, perhaps) of subs being brought on with less than 5 mins to go - I don't think it allows them time to get into the game and to contribute)
• Dublin's subs have scored 3-20 of their 9-107 total (20.2%) vs 1-16 of Mayo's 15-133 (10.6%) (does not include extra-time periods in Mayo's games with Derry and Cork)
• In 3 of Mayo's games, the subs have not contributed to the scoreboard
• Each of Dublin's subs comes on slightly earlier than Mayo's, with the average Dublin sub spending 16.6 minutes on the field, compared to 12.8 for Mayo (does not include subs who came on before HT as injury/black card replacements)

This is stark reality that faces us on Sunday,a superior Dublin bench.

I find it infuriating that substitutions are made with less than five minutes to go.Unless you're coasting it makes no sense not to utilise your bench earlier to the fullest extent.Unless that is you don't have fill trust in your bench which should not the case.

PARlance

seligehgit wrote: »

This is stark reality that faces us on Sunday, a superior Dublin bench.

I find it infuriating that substitutions are made with less than five minutes to go.Unless you're coasting it makes no sense not to utilise your bench earlier to the fullest extent.Unless that is you don't have fill trust in your bench.

At the same time, we were coasting against Cork and emptying the bench was probably seen as the biggest factor in letting them back in. And there has been lots of groans when Boyler is taken off early.

The way I see it is that Rochford has 18 strong options. He has to get Durcan on for 20-25 mins in some way, Loftus & Coen for 10-15 mins. Outside of that you're looking at spoiler type subs / players imo that are only coming on within the final 10.

laoisman11

seligehgit wrote: »

I find it infuriating that substitutions are made with less than five minutes to go.Unless you're coasting it makes no sense not to utilise your bench earlier to the fullest extent.Unless that is you don't have fill trust in your bench which should not the case.

For me, it is part of the different strategy/mindset that Dublin have brought to the game. Every aspect of the game has to be optimised. Subs are not thrown on for the last 5 minutes for the sake of "shur maybe he can do something". Subs are brought on with 10-15-20-25 minutes to go with specific roles or with specific attributes that will change the game in their favour. This has not been so evident in the games they have coasted through this champiosnhip, but the fact that 20% of their scores have come from the subs bench surely has added to the level of comfort they have had in their victories.

Of course, keeping 1 sub until the last 5 minutes always makes sense in case of a black card along the way. As a point of illustration, Dublin's 5th sub arrives on average in the 58th minute and their 6th in the 66th minute. Mayo's 5th sub arrives in the 66th minute. Of course, the quality of what you have on the bench will determine how many and what stage you make the subs, but it is up to the management team to develop the role of substitutes.

Bonniedog

Both teams were out on their feet the last few times they met, so having subs to bring on in dying minutes of normal time, and I don't think either did if memory serves, makes sense.

There is also factor that if you are chasing a game, not only does a sub provide new legs, but also adds time to whatever extra time will be played. Assuming you do so quickly of course! Likewise, some teams will try to use subs as means to run down clock but that is not as common since they've started to add time on and time substitutions during kick outs and other delays.

laoisman11

Prediction model output attached..

I didn't get as much time as I would have liked this week to go into a bit more detail (especially in relation to more recent results between the sides, distribution of scorers, etc.....).

tl;dr Dublin by 2.8

I'm hoping for a different result.......

yop

laoisman11 wrote: »

Prediction model output attached..

I didn't get as much time as I would have liked this week to go into a bit more detail (especially in relation to more recent results between the sides, distribution of scorers, etc.....).

tl;dr Dublin by 2.8

I'm hoping for a different result.......

The system predicted Kerry by 2 for the replay.... hoping its wrong again!

Same As

Thanks for all your hard work with this again this year, laoisman11.

laoisman11

The slimmest of margins.....Dublin maintain their number 1 place while Mayo hold onto second position.

I will do up a year review before Christmas to show the main movers over the last 12 months.

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 110.57 | 1.79
2 | = | Mayo | 103.92 | -1.79
3 | = | Kerry | 100.85 | 0.00
4 | = | Tyrone | 100.34 | 0.00
5 | = | Monaghan | 92.65 | 0.00
6 | = | Galway | 92.56 | 0.00
7 | = | Armagh | 91.14 | 0.00
8 | = | Roscommon | 90.73 | 0.00
9 | = | Kildare | 89.75 | 0.00
10 | = | Donegal | 88.07 | 0.00
11 | = | Cork | 87.73 | 0.00
12 | = | Tipperary | 84.86 | 0.00
13 | = | Clare | 84.69 | 0.00
14 | = | Meath | 83.26 | 0.00
15 | = | Down | 82.42 | 0.00
16 | = | Cavan | 81.54 | 0.00
17 | = | Westmeath | 80.68 | 0.00
18 | = | Derry | 79.16 | 0.00
19 | = | Longford | 78.05 | 0.00
20 | = | Sligo | 76.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Fermanagh | 74.62 | 0.00
22 | = | Offaly | 73.36 | 0.00
23 | = | Carlow | 73.10 | 0.00
24 | = | Laois | 73.06 | 0.00

25 | = | Wexford | 70.88 | 0.00
26 | = | Louth | 68.87 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 68.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Limerick | 65.40 | 0.00
29 | = | Leitrim | 64.79 | 0.00
30 | = | New York | 57.16 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.11 | 0.00
32 | = | Wicklow | 55.89 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 53.77 | 0.00

seligehgit

Thanks a million laoisman11 for your all having hard work throughout the year,as fascinating as ever.

laoisman11

End of year review time.………..

The top 4 teams remain the same, although Mayo have switched positions with Kerry (despite Kerry’s league win). As things stand today, Dublin have destroyed their own record for staying top of the rankings (previous record for them was 399 days established during the mid-90’s. They are now in 4th place overall at 770 days but they still have a long way to go to beat the records set by Kerry’s 4 in-a-row teams from 1978-1982 (1456 days) or from 1930-1934 (1712 days).

Getting back to the current day...........

Big winners

1. Armagh: Given the manner in which they bowed out of the championship, and how they failed to get promoted from Division 3, it might be surprising that Armagh have climbed 15 places and gained 16.8 rating points since the start of the year. Promotion has to be the goal for 2018 along with a good championship run
2. Carlow: 9.53 rating points gained during the league, their first Leinster championship win since 2011 and good showings against seriously superior opposition bode well for 2018
3. Down: Written off by many, Down did just about enough to retain Division 2 status, before going on a heady run to the Ulster final
4. Honorable mentions to Roscommon and Monaghan who both increased their stock by more than 8 rating points

Big losers

1. Fermanagh; 9.25 rating points and 8 ranking places lost following a poor year; relegation coupled with two 9-point defeats leave Fermanagh with a lot of work to do next year
2. Donegal: Disappointing when they met good opposition (Tyrone and Galway), Donegal did manage a good Division 1 campaign. New blood and a new manager will rise their boat in 2018
3. (Dis?)Honorable mentions: Tipperary and Clare fell back from the lofty heights they set in 2016, where do they go from here?

Rank|Team|Δ Rating|Δ Ranking
1 | Dublin | -0.56 | 0
2 | Mayo | 0.72 | 1
3 | Kerry | -2.47 | -1
4 | Tyrone | 3.32 | 0
5 | Monaghan | 8.61 | 6
6 | Galway | 3.99 | 2
7 | Armagh | 16.80 | 15
8 | Roscommon | 8.01 | 8
9 | Kildare | 5.73 | 3
10 | Donegal | -8.19 | -5
11 | Cork | -0.79 | -2
12 | Tipperary | -7.50 | -6
13 | Clare | -6.28 | -6
14 | Meath | 1.61 | 3
15 | Down | 9.45 | 8
16 | Cavan | -1.70 | -1
17 | Westmeath | -2.92 | -3
18 | Derry | -5.64 | -8
19 | Longford | -1.74 | -1
20 | Sligo | 1.98 | 1
21 | Fermanagh | -9.25 | -8
22 | Offaly | -3.66 | -2
23 | Carlow | 9.53 | 5
24 | Laois | -4.76 | -5
25 | Wexford | -0.72 | 0
26 | Louth | -4.01 | -2
27 | Antrim | 1.06 | 0
28 | Limerick | -5.43 | -2
29 | Leitrim | 1.54 | 0
30 | New York | 0.00 | 2
31 | Waterford | 0.31 | 2
32 | Wicklow | -3.31 | -2
33 | London | -3.73 | -2

Jippo

laoisman11 wrote: »

End of year review time.………..

The top 4 teams remain the same, although Mayo have switched positions with Kerry (despite Kerry’s league win). As things stand today, Dublin have destroyed their own record for staying top of the rankings (previous record for them was 399 days established during the mid-90’s. They are now in 4th place overall at 770 days but they still have a long way to go to beat the records set by Kerry’s 4 in-a-row teams from 1978-1982 (1456 days) or from 1930-1934 (1712 days).

Getting back to the current day...........

Big winners

1. Armagh: Given the manner in which they bowed out of the championship, and how they failed to get promoted from Division 3, it might be surprising that Armagh have climbed 15 places and gained 16.8 rating points since the start of the year. Promotion has to be the goal for 2018 along with a good championship run
2. Carlow: 9.53 rating points gained during the league, their first Leinster championship win since 2011 and good showings against seriously superior opposition bode well for 2018
3. Down: Written off by many, Down did just about enough to retain Division 2 status, before going on a heady run to the Ulster final
4. Honorable mentions to Roscommon and Monaghan who both increased their stock by more than 8 rating points

Big losers

1. Fermanagh; 9.25 rating points and 8 ranking places lost following a poor year; relegation coupled with two 9-point defeats leave Fermanagh with a lot of work to do next year
2. Donegal: Disappointing when they met good opposition (Tyrone and Galway), Donegal did manage a good Division 1 campaign. New blood and a new manager will rise their boat in 2018
3. (Dis?)Honorable mentions: Tipperary and Clare fell back from the lofty heights they set in 2016, where do they go from here?

Rank|Team|Δ Rating|Δ Ranking
1 | Dublin | -0.56 | 0
2 | Mayo | 0.72 | 1
3 | Kerry | -2.47 | -1
4 | Tyrone | 3.32 | 0
5 | Monaghan | 8.61 | 6
6 | Galway | 3.99 | 2
7 | Armagh | 16.80 | 15
8 | Roscommon | 8.01 | 8
9 | Kildare | 5.73 | 3
10 | Donegal | -8.19 | -5
11 | Cork | -0.79 | -2
12 | Tipperary | -7.50 | -6
13 | Clare | -6.28 | -6
14 | Meath | 1.61 | 3
15 | Down | 9.45 | 8
16 | Cavan | -1.70 | -1
17 | Westmeath | -2.92 | -3
18 | Derry | -5.64 | -8
19 | Longford | -1.74 | -1
20 | Sligo | 1.98 | 1
21 | Fermanagh | -9.25 | -8
22 | Offaly | -3.66 | -2
23 | Carlow | 9.53 | 5
24 | Laois | -4.76 | -5
25 | Wexford | -0.72 | 0
26 | Louth | -4.01 | -2
27 | Antrim | 1.06 | 0
28 | Limerick | -5.43 | -2
29 | Leitrim | 1.54 | 0
30 | New York | 0.00 | 2
31 | Waterford | 0.31 | 2
32 | Wicklow | -3.31 | -2
33 | London | -3.73 | -2

If I recall correctly, you said there is a database of GAA results going back to 19XX.

Do you know how I could get access to this?

Furthermore, are there similar databases for minor and U-21? Thank you.

Jippo

Al Monds wrote: »

Hello Laois Man,

I have a complete set of results in SFC, SHC, NFL and NHL from inception to today.
Would they be of any use to you?

I would be very interested in the SFC results.

I am also looking for U-21 and minor results.

keane2097

You trying to calculate something for betting?