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Football ranking table
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Excuse the quick and dirty graph below, but some interesting trends here, especially over the last 10 years.
The first 10 years, the system is getting set up and teams were finding their level (they all started with 80 rating points).
From 1940-2010, the distribution of the rating points among teams was pretty constant, apart from a narrowing in the early 70s
Between 2010-2015, the gap between the top and bottom teams widened in an almost linear fashion before more or less plateauing in the last 5 years - a potential reason for this is that I changed the league weighting from 1 to 1.5 in 2009
(Not sure at what point you took your data from in 2009 @crusd, as there is a difference in our standard deviations, but I took the end of year data)
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Prediction model output for this weekend's games........as we come towards the end of the league, some teams will have less to play for (no opportunity for promotion, no risk of relegation), so prediction of some games becomes a lottery.
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Updated ranking table after NFL round 6.
- Antrim were the big winners with a relegation-saving victory over Cavan (who were more or less promoted anyway, but that's not taking away from a fine victory) - Antrim gained 3 rating points for this exploit
- Tyrone took 2.58 rating points from Monaghan and look to join the big boys at the top table and relative safety in Division 1
- Fermanagh were the only other team to take more than 2 rating points in their hunt for promotion gathers pace
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Prediction output for this weekend's games below. Be very wary where teams have nothing to play for (Mayo, Derry, Clare, Limerick, Cavan, Tipp & Longford) or where they have little to play for - i.e. they are already safe from relegation and no chance of promotion (3, 2 and 4 teams in Divs 2, 3 and 4, respectively).
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Ranking table update following the final round of league games:
- Monaghan were the big big winners, not only in escaping relegation, but also in gaining 4.5 rating points following a bonus-point, away win over high-flyers Mayo
- Down had a surprisingly big win over Offaly, gaining them 2.65 rating points, but events elsewhere meant that they were not to be promoted
- And that event was Fermanagh’s win over an already promoted Cavan, 2.52 rating points exchanged in that game, which might be swapped again after the final next weekend
- Final word to Galway, whose victory over Kerry, combined with Mayo’s loss to Monaghan, means that Galway occupy no. 1 spot for the first time since July 2003!
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Final ranking table after the 2022 NFL:
- Kerry regain number one spot, while Mayo pip Galway for 3rd spot
- Dublin (they haven't gone away) rise to 2nd place, where they have not been since Sept 2021
- Sligo are up to their highest ranking since January 2019 after a good win in the Div 4 final
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How has your team fared during the league? Who were the movers and shakers? And what imact (if any) will it have on the championship......
Big winners
- Louth gained 8 rating points and moved up 5 ranking places after a more-than-solid season in Division 2
- Tyrone were not far behind, they gained 7.5 rating points and climbed 4 ranking places
- Every 2nd year, Roscommon seem to have a good league - this year, they gained 5.5 rating points and hopped 3 ranking places
- Honorable mentions to Fermanagh and Sligo who increased their worth by 5.2 and 5 rating points, respectively
Big losers
- The All-Ireland champions normally suffer big if they have a loss in the league, and Kerry accumulated 4 of them, losing 10.3 rating points in the process but retaining no.1 place
- Westmeath dropped 6.1 rating points and 4 ranking places after a poor Division 3 campaign (despite having the best scoring difference across all teams)
- Clare fell 3 ranking places and lost 5.1 rating points following a league campaign which culminated in relagation from Division 2 after 7 years
- Honoroble mentions to Armagh and Donegal, who lost 4.7 and 4 rating points, respectively
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First round of games in this year's SFC, with hardly a breather since the league has finished.
I haven't done the in-depth previews as there are potentially too many games at this early stage to make it interesting, but if people want, I can do them from next weekend on.
Prediction model output:
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What an exciting opening round to the 2023 SFC! I certainly wasn't expecting that many shocks (and Waterford and Longford were not far off creating other shocks, if the reports I read are to be believed).
- Roscommon were the big winners, exchaning 5.1 rating points (and 4 ranking places) with Mayo
- Clare took 3.5 rating points from Cork, and now lead them in the rankings
- There were gains, albeit of smaller magnitude, for Laois, Offaly, New York, Wicklow and Tipperary
- No rating points were exchanged in the Armagh-Antrim nor Sligo-London games
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Updated ranking table below following last weekend's games:
- A sensational win for Monaghan results in a gain of 4.2 rating points and effectively swapping positions with Tyrone in the ranking table
- No rating points exchanged in the Derry vs Fermanagh game due to the gulf in rating points between the sides
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With 10 games on the menu last weekend, there was sure to be major movement in the ranking table:
- Down gained 3 places in the rankings and took 4.2 rating points from Donegal, dropping Donegal to their lowest rank since February 2011
- Offaly's win over Meath gained them 3.8 rating points, relegating Meath to the Tailteann Cup, and to 19th place, their lowest since June '18
- The other big winner was Galway, who regain no. 1 place in the table after a fine win over Roscommon
- Final mention to Clare, who moved to 10th place, their highest since March 2017
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It feels like feast or famine with these alternating weekends of game overload/little to look forward to......only 4 games this weekend. The prediction model output is below.
I will try to attach the full output as a HTML file in a seperate post, hopefully it will work!
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- A huge win for Derry moves them up to 2nd place, and if they can take Armagh in the Ulster final, they look likely to top the ranking table!
- Louth's extra-time win over Offaly moves them up to 10th, their highest since June 2013
- Armagh had a small gain following a big win over Down
- No rating points were exchanged after the Dublin-Kildare game
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Another famine weekend with only 2 games, and going by the prediction model, there won't be much intrigue - Galway and Kerry are projected to win big. Nevertheless, on looking at the long-term trends (PDF attached), both Sligo and Clare have a habit of making things sticky for Galway and Kerry, respectively, so these finals may remain competitive for a longer stretch than expected.
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