Football ranking table

laoisman11

With 8 games last weekend and 11 games next weekend, this weekend feels like a major letdown.........hopefully there might be a shock or 2 this weekend, but it looks unlikely!

Full output attached as a PDF.

A few interesting points from this week's analysis:

• Galway are on a great run of form, with only 2 major blots on their copybook in the last 12 months, those being the defeats to Roscommon and Kerry
• Both Monaghan and Fermanagh are also on excellent runs of form this year, but against differet class of competition, it has to be said. Monaghan notched 1-20 in their Ulster SFC encounters with Fermanagh in 2015 and 2017, the same here will see them safely through
• There isn't a huge rating difference between Kerry and Clare but home advantage should hand the Kingdom the upper hand after a poor league campaign

tl;dr
Galway by 10.0
Monaghan by 6.0
Kerry by 8.3

laoisman11

If Fermanagh hadn’t provided us with a shock, there would be little to report on this week….

• A sneaky win gain the Ernemen 6 rating points and an increase of 2 places in the rankings – they are the most improved team this calendar year by a distance!
• Monaghan meanwhile just about hold onto 3rd place

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 108.64 | 0.00
2 | = | Galway | 103.87 | 0.00
3 | = | Monaghan | 97.76 | -6.00
4 | = | Kerry | 97.73 | 0.00
5 | = | Tyrone | 97.72 | 0.00
6 | = | Mayo | 93.93 | 0.00
7 | = | Roscommon | 92.86 | 0.00
8 | = | Donegal | 91.55 | 0.00
9 | ▲ ▲ | Fermanagh | 91.03 | 6.00
10 | ▼ | Cork | 89.40 | 0.00
11 | ▼ | Armagh | 85.25 | 0.00
12 | = | Clare | 84.47 | 0.00
13 | = | Laois | 84.38 | 0.00
14 | = | Longford | 83.40 | 0.00
15 | = | Cavan | 83.10 | 0.00
16 | = | Carlow | 82.93 | 0.00
17 | = | Down | 81.17 | 0.00
18 | = | Meath | 80.50 | 0.00
19 | = | Tipperary | 78.86 | 0.00
20 | = | Kildare | 77.76 | 0.00
21 | = | Sligo | 76.19 | 0.00
22 | = | Derry | 74.31 | 0.00
23 | = | Westmeath | 74.11 | 0.00
24 | = | Offaly | 69.63 | 0.00
25 | = | Antrim | 69.39 | 0.00
26 | = | Leitrim | 66.82 | 0.00
27 | = | Wexford | 66.71 | 0.00
28 | = | Louth | 64.66 | 0.00
29 | = | Limerick | 60.90 | 0.00
30 | = | Wicklow | 60.71 | 0.00
31 | = | Waterford | 57.57 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 54.07 | 0.00

BonnieSituation

Rory the spoofer strikes again...

OldMrBrennan83

This post has been deleted.

BonnieSituation

I do. As Dub as I am I hold onto my mild Fermanagh-ness for dear life.

I don't think I can get to Clones on the 24th though, I have to be in Wareford on the 23rd. Will be an interesting day's viewing in Blaa-land.

Fr Tod Umptious

I'm just going to sit and wait for the

"So your telling me that Monaghan who lost to Fermanagh are better than Kerry who scored 32 points v good Clare team"

post.

BonnieSituation

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'm just going to sit and wait for the

"So your telling me that Monaghan who lost to Fermanagh are better than Kerry who scored 32 points v good Clare team"

post.

Some posters even think they're a "great" Clare team.

laoisman11

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

I'm just going to sit and wait for the

"So your telling me that Monaghan who lost to Fermanagh are better than Kerry who scored 32 points v good Clare team"

post.

It appears to be the first time that a senior county team has kicked more than 30 points in a championship game. (Kilkenny shipped 30+ points on 3 occasions in league games in 2008 and 2012.) (Incidentally, in 2012, Fermanagh lost the Division 4 final to Wicklow!)

Fr Tod Umptious

laoisman11 wrote: »

It appears to be the first time that a senior county team has kicked more than 30 points in a championship game. (Kilkenny shipped 30+ points on 3 occasions in league games in 2008 and 2012.) (Incidentally, in 2012, Fermanagh lost the Division 4 final to Wicklow!)

That was asked on an other thread actually, was 32 points a record points scored tally.

laoisman11

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

That was asked on an other thread actually, was 32 points a record points scored tally.

29 points in the 4-29 mauling of Westmeath by Dublin in last years Leinster semi-final was the previous record.

Many commentators are noting that scoring averages have increased over the last few years even with the appearance of (ultra)defensive football but I wonder if this is driven by the greater occurence of one-sided games in the early stages of the championship. If I get some time, I will have a look at it......

L'prof

laoisman11 wrote: »

29 points in the 4-29 mauling of Westmeath by Dublin in last years Leinster semi-final was the previous record.

Many commentators are noting that scoring averages have increased over the last few years even with the appearance of (ultra)defensive football but I wonder if this is driven by the greater occurence of one-sided games in the early stages of the championship. If I get some time, I will have a look at it......

Most points kicked for Kerry but still most scores registered by Dublin with 33. That's surely a record?

laoisman11

L'prof wrote: »

Most points kicked for Kerry but still most scores registered by Dublin with 33. That's surely a record?

It sure is for championship.

Wicklow hold the league and overall record though, 2-34 against Kilkenny in Aughrim on the 2nd of March 2008.

laoisman11

Three first-time meetings and plenty of intrigue ahead of a bumper weekend......

• Wexford and Waterford are meeting for the first time in the championship. They also have only 3 wins between them in their combined 28 previous games, time for one of them to taste a rare victory
• Kildare's stock took a hammering at the hands of Carlow; can they redeem themselves here against a Derry side which is not so different from them in rating points?
• Both Meath and Tyrone have had a topsy-turvy year up to now when we look at their form, with both disappointed with their quick exits from their respective championships
• Only a second-ever championship meeting of Limerick and Mayo; the last one was a slender 1 point win for Mayo, they should manage a more comfortable victory here over a Limerick side that is having a poor season
• Two very evenly matched teams meeting for the first time in the championship, Offaly have done well against Antrim in the league in recent years, but their implosion to Wicklow will signal an opportunity to an Antrim side that coped as well as could be expected with Down
• The record stands at one win each from championship meetings between Wicklow and Cavan; Cavan will surely take the upper hand
• Westmeath meet Armagh for only the second time after their 5 point loss to them last year, the prediction model is giving it a bit tighter this time
• Some might think that the London-Louth game is a given, but Louth are on a terrible run of form, only exceeding their expected score once in the last 13 games. London's form does look better, but the prediction model is heavily swayed by the ratings difference. I think that it could be a lot tighter in another first-time meeting.
• It is doubtful that a Leinster final appearance was in the plans of either Laois or Carlow at the start of the year, but here they find themselves renewing acquaintance for the third time this year. Carlow are coming off two games where they surpassed the expected score difference by 10 points.
• 1970 since Longford last beat Dublin and some big beatings have been endured since then. Hard to see this trend changing.
• A superior rating of 10 points is what leads the model to predict a solid if unspectacular Donegal win

tl;dr
Wexford by 5.6
Kildare by 0.5
Tyrone by 2.3
Mayo by 11.5
Offaly by 2.3
Cavan by 9.3
Armagh by 3.3
Louth by 7.6
Laois by 2.9
Dublin by 12.5
Donegal by 2.9

laoisman11

Lots of changes to the rankings after the glut of games this weekend:

• Waterford gained the most rating points following their excellent win over Wexford; Waterford have not seen 28th place since 2013, while Wexford have not been so low since June 2001
• Kildare’s win over Derry was the next largest rating point exchange and Kildare jump 4 places as a result, with Derry now dropping to 24th, a position they have not seen since 1984
• Offaly, Laois, Louth, Armagh and Donegal all picked up between 1 and 3 rating points
• Tyrone's minor gain of 0.16 rating points is enough to see them back into third spot
• There were no rating points exchanged in the Dublin-Longford, Limerick-Mayo nor Wicklow-Cavan games

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 108.64 | 0.00
2 | = | Galway | 103.87 | 0.00
3 | ▲ 2 | Tyrone | 97.88 | 0.16
4 | ▼ | Monaghan | 97.76 | 0.00
5 | ▼ | Kerry | 97.73 | 0.00
6 | = | Mayo | 93.93 | 0.00
7 | ▲ | Donegal | 92.94 | 1.39
8 | ▼ | Roscommon | 92.86 | 0.00
9 | = | Fermanagh | 91.03 | 0.00
10 | = | Cork | 89.40 | 0.00
11 | = | Armagh | 87.31 | 2.06
12 | ▲ | Laois | 87.09 | 2.71
13 | ▼ | Clare | 84.47 | 0.00
14 | = | Longford | 83.40 | 0.00
15 | = | Cavan | 83.10 | 0.00
16 | ▲ 4 | Kildare | 82.12 | 4.36
17 | ▲ | Meath | 80.34 | -0.16
18 | ▼ 2 | Carlow | 80.22 | -2.71
19 | ▼ 2 | Down | 79.78 | -1.39
20 | ▼ | Tipperary | 78.86 | 0.00
21 | = | Sligo | 76.19 | 0.00
22 | ▲ 2 | Offaly | 73.16 | 3.53
23 | = | Westmeath | 72.05 | -2.06
24 | ▼ 2 | Derry | 69.95 | -4.36
25 | ▲ 3 | Louth | 66.88 | 2.22
26 | = | Leitrim | 66.82 | 0.00
27 | ▼ 2 | Antrim | 65.86 | -3.53
28 | ▲ 3 | Waterford | 63.00 | 5.43
29 | ▼ 2 | Wexford | 61.28 | -5.43
30 | ▼ | Limerick | 60.90 | 0.00
31 | ▼ | Wicklow | 60.71 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.85 | -2.22

L'prof

Great stuff as always. Interested to know, could Dublin have gained any rating points by beating Longford at the weekend (if the margin was big enough) or is the gap too big between them?

laoisman11

L'prof wrote: »

Great stuff as always. Interested to know, could Dublin have gained any rating points by beating Longford at the weekend (if the margin was big enough) or is the gap too big between them?

If the gap is more than 15 rating points, no points are exchanged if the higher-rated team wins. Teams that play at home are afforded an extra 3 rating points, so as it currently stands, Dublin will only pick up rating points from beating any of the teams ranked 2-5 in Croke Park. (I have considered Croke Park as Dublin's home venue, I'm sure that a debate on that subject is raging on on some other thread here if anyone is interested)

Of course, if the underdog wins, maximum rating points are exchanged (2) multiplied by the factor for the competition (2 for league, 3 for championship) and then multiplied by the bonus score factor (1.5) if the teams wins by more than 5 points. So a maximum of 9 rating points to be gained for a +5pt championship win for the outsiders!

laoisman11

A famine between 2 feasts, with only the Connacht final this weekend to tie us over until we gorge ourselves on yet another 11 games next weekend.

A look back over the results of previous Roscommon - Galway games show that they are mainly draws or 5+ points wins for one side or the other. In line with these large wins, the prediction model has not been able to accurately gauge the outcome of games between these 2 recently, being 10+ points out in the championship meetings of 2016 and 2017.

Based on the current ratings, the prediction model is going for Galway to win by 2.1 points.

Full prediction model output attached.

Jippo

Jippo wrote: »

No. I am proposing a modelling project.

The aim of this project is to examine the distribution of senior success, given the prior minor and U-21 success.

A student has taken up this project. I can't recall at this time whether it will be ready for Christmas or this time next year.

laoisman11

A minor exchange of rating points following Galway’s Connacht final win over Roscommon that does not affect the ranking of either team……..but edges Galway closer to Dublin – can Galway knock Dublin from the number 1 spot before they (eventually?) meet ???

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 108.64 | 0.00
2 | = | Galway | 105.27 | 1.40
3 | = | Tyrone | 97.88 | 0.00
4 | = | Monaghan | 97.76 | 0.00
5 | = | Kerry | 97.73 | 0.00
6 | = | Mayo | 93.93 | 0.00
7 | = | Donegal | 92.94 | 0.00
8 | = | Roscommon | 91.46 | -1.40
9 | = | Fermanagh | 91.03 | 0.00
10 | = | Cork | 89.40 | 0.00
11 | = | Armagh | 87.31 | 0.00
12 | = | Laois | 87.09 | 0.00
13 | = | Clare | 84.47 | 0.00
14 | = | Longford | 83.40 | 0.00
15 | = | Cavan | 83.10 | 0.00
16 | = | Kildare | 82.12 | 0.00
17 | = | Meath | 80.34 | 0.00
18 | = | Carlow | 80.22 | 0.00
19 | = | Down | 79.78 | 0.00
20 | = | Tipperary | 78.86 | 0.00
21 | = | Sligo | 76.19 | 0.00
22 | = | Offaly | 73.16 | 0.00
23 | = | Westmeath | 72.05 | 0.00
24 | = | Derry | 69.95 | 0.00
25 | = | Louth | 66.88 | 0.00
26 | = | Leitrim | 66.82 | 0.00
27 | = | Antrim | 65.86 | 0.00
28 | = | Waterford | 63.00 | 0.00
29 | = | Wexford | 61.28 | 0.00
30 | = | Limerick | 60.90 | 0.00
31 | = | Wicklow | 60.71 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.85 | 0.00

laoisman11

Another 11-game bumper weekend!!

• Not a huge rating difference between Cork and Kerry but Kerry's demolition of Clare leaves them going into this game with a certain feel-good factor. Cork's win over Tipp, while less spectacular, was a marked improvement in the way that they stuttered to the Munster final last year. Cork have nothing to lose here.
• A first ever championship meeting for Waterford and Monaghan; Waterford are on a good run of form, exceeding expectations in their last 6 games, despite having lost 13 of their last 15 games. The gap in rating points (31.7 taking home advantage into account) would suggest a large Monaghan win (but you probably didn't need a predictive model to tell you that!)
• Cavan and Down is an interesting one, Cavan haven't had a win over Down in the championship since 2004, and having a slightly higher rating, the prediction model gives them the nod here
• The record reads Mayo 7, Tipperary 0 from 5 league and 2 championship meetings. Tipp will be keen to put a bit of gloss on a year in which they appear to have regressed. A potential banana skin for Mayo?
• The first time meeting of Carlow and Tyrone, either in league or championship totally fecked up my code so I had to leave them out of the PDF output. The model prediction comes solely from the current rating points
• Armagh recovered from a poor start to the championship with a solid win over Westmeath; they have already comfortably dealt with the challenge of Sligo this year in the league, albeit at home
• Only 0.06 rating points between Leitrim and Louth (although Leitrim have home advantage). Louth came off a 10 game losing streak to win well in Ruislip the last day, can they continue this upturn?
• Hard to believe Longford are ranked higher than Kildare, but that's what a loss to Carlow does to your rating points. Kildare had a huge win over Longford in 2015, but the prediction model thinks that it is going to be a lot tighter this time
• Clare have not beaten Offaly in their 2 championship meetings to date, but they might have the upper hand having played at a higher division than Offaly during the winter
• Fermanagh have been consistently performing above expectations (since last year's qualifier loss to Armagh) and this run of form sees them in the Ulster final against a Donegal side which is also going very well. An intriguing one, but the model is swayed by Donegal's higher rating
• Two huge wins over Wicklow and Longford have the Dubs comfortably in the Leinster final with only Laois in the way of another trophy. Laois have advanced slowly but surely this year without ever looking like world-beaters against mostly Division 4 teams, and that gulf in class will probably be evident here

tl;dr (or can't make the PDF out from the phone)

• Kerry by 2.8
• Monaghan by 12.6
• Cavan by 2.0
• Mayo by 4.4
• Tyrone by 8.1
• Armagh by 3.3
• Louth by 1.2
• Kildare by 0.5
• Offaly-Clare - the first time that I have observed the model to predict a score difference of 0.0!
• Donegal by 3.1
• Dublin by 9.6

BonnieSituation

Demolition of Clare... cmon man!

That's up there with the use of addicting over addictive and preciseness over precision.

laoisman11

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Demolition of Clare... cmon man!

That's up there with the use of addicting over addictive and preciseness over precision.

I knew it didn't sound right :rolleyes:

I spent 9 hours in a design thinking workshop speaking 3 different languages today, and the auld brain is a bit muddled!

I also forgot to add that I'm off for a week so there will be no updates until next Friday!

BonnieSituation

laoisman11 wrote: »

I knew it didn't sound right :rolleyes:

I spent 9 hours in a design thinking workshop speaking 3 different languages today, and the auld brain is a bit muddled!

I also forgot to add that I'm off for a week so there will be no updates until next Friday!

My brain is muddled after reading that!

kupus

BonnieSituation wrote: »

My brain is muddled after reading that!

My brain is muddled that galway are in 2nd place lol.

crusier

kupus wrote:

its like the young dog chasing the bone, when he eventually gets to it. he could be clueless what to do with it

kupus wrote:

My brain is muddled that galway are in 2nd place lol.

To be expected, Mayo brains have been turned to mush by the dubs and Galway for the last few years.

kupus

crusier wrote: »

To be expected, Mayo brains have been turned to mush by the dubs and Galway for the last few years.

If somebody 3 years ago said, Galway would be 2nd place in the league, and 2nd on a list that is fairly accurate people would have them locked into the nearest mental hospital!

I remember 98 only too well. Who is to say it cant happen again.

laoisman11

Lots of movement in the table after last weekend's action:

• Donegal gained the most rating points (3.93) with a bonus-point win over Fermanagh
• Kildare were not far behind them, taking 3.86 rating points from Longford who fall 4 places in the rankings
• Leitrim had an excellent bonus point win over Louth, earning them 3.62 rating points and their highest ranking position since June 2013
• Kerry, Cavan and Armagh also picked up more than 2 rating points, while there were minor gains for Clare, Mayo and Tyrone
• No rating points were exchanged in the Laois-Dublin or Waterford-Monaghan games

Teams in bold still in the championship

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 108.64 | 0.00
2 | = | Galway | 105.27 | 0.00
3 | ▲ 2 | Kerry | 100.63 | 2.90
4 | ▼ | Tyrone | 97.98 | 0.10
5 | ▼ | Monaghan | 97.76 | 0.00
6 | ▲ | Donegal | 96.87 | 3.93
7 | ▼ | Mayo | 94.81 | 0.88
8 | = | Roscommon | 91.46 | 0.00
9 | ▲ 2 | Armagh | 89.37 | 2.06
10 | ▼ | Fermanagh | 87.10 | -3.93
11 | ▲ | Laois | 87.09 | 0.00
12 | ▼ 2 | Cork | 86.50 | -2.90
13 | ▲ 3 | Kildare | 85.98 | 3.86
14 | ▼ | Clare | 85.81 | 1.34
15 | = | Cavan | 85.44 | 2.34
16 | ▲ | Meath | 80.34 | 0.00
17 | ▲ | Carlow | 80.12 | -0.10
18 | ▼ 4 | Longford | 79.54 | -3.86
19 | ▲ | Tipperary | 77.98 | -0.88
20 | ▼ | Down | 77.44 | -2.34
21 | = | Sligo | 74.13 | -2.06
22 | ▲ | Westmeath | 72.05 | 0.00
23 | ▼ | Offaly | 71.82 | -1.34
24 | ▲ 2 | Leitrim | 70.44 | 3.62
25 | ▼ | Derry | 69.95 | 0.00
26 | ▲ | Antrim | 65.86 | 0.00
27 | ▼ 2 | Louth | 63.26 | -3.62
28 | = | Waterford | 63.00 | 0.00
29 | = | Wexford | 61.28 | 0.00
30 | = | Limerick | 60.90 | 0.00
31 | = | Wicklow | 60.71 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.85 | 0.00

laoisman11

Two steps from the Super 8s for all of these teams, a lot to play for!

• Leitrim and Monaghan are meeting for the first time in the championship; Monaghan's huge win over Waterford was so far off the scale, it doesn't even show in the graphs, another big win is expected here
• A first time meeting for Armagh and Clare, with league games between the 2 being quite tight. Armagh's superior rating points tips the model towards an Armagh win, but it might be tighter than people expect
• Cavan just about got over the challenge of Down, while Tyrone seem to be blowing a lot of dirty petrol out of their system; Cavan haven't had a win over Tyrone in quite a while but have given them scares with draws in 2005 and 2016. The advantage lies heavily with Tyrone
• 1935 since Kildare's one and only win over Mayo in the SFC, and they seem to be recovering well after the debacle of the Carlow game. Mayo are doing what Mayo do best, giving their supporters mini-heart attacks and then finding some way to come out on top........how long they can keep this up is anyone's guess, but the prediction model is going for them due to their superior rating points

Full prediction model output attached as a PDF

tl;dr

• Monaghan by 9.1
• Armagh by 3.8
• Tyrone by 3.6
• Mayo by 2.7

Charles Babbage

While teams such as Laois or Armagh still standing might not seem obvious candidates for the Super 8s, the remaining teams are all in the top 12 or so on the table.

Tyrone and Monaghan should be able to cope with anyone from the provincial runner-ups and Armagh are reasonably matched with Roscommon, Cork or Laois (they cannot draw Fermanagh).

laoisman11

• The big winners last weekend were Kildare of course, exchanging 4.17 rating points with Mayo and moving closer to the Super 8s. Mayo drop to 9th, their lowest rank since July 2011
• Armagh’s smash-and-grab victory sees them slip into the top 8 (courtesy of Mayo’s fall it has to be said) and they gain 1.69 rating points at the expense of Clare
• Tyrone picked up minor rating points after beating Clare, while no rating points were exchanged in the Leitrim-Monaghan game

Teams in bold still in championship

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating|Δ Rating
1 | = | Dublin | 108.64 | 0.00
2 | = | Galway | 105.27 | 0.00
3 | = | Kerry | 100.63 | 0.00
4 | = | Tyrone | 98.47 | 0.49
5 | = | Monaghan | 97.76 | 0.00
6 | = | Donegal | 96.87 | 0.00
7 | ▲ | Roscommon | 91.46 | 0.00
8 | ▲ | Armagh | 91.06 | 1.69
9 | ▼ 2 | Mayo | 90.64 | -4.17
10 | ▲ 3 | Kildare | 90.15 | 4.17
11 | ▼ | Fermanagh | 87.10 | 0.00
12 | ▼ | Laois | 87.09 | 0.00
13 | ▼ | Cork | 86.50 | 0.00
14 | ▲ | Cavan | 84.95 | -0.49
15 | ▼ | Clare | 84.12 | -1.69
16 | = | Meath | 80.34 | 0.00
17 | = | Carlow | 80.12 | 0.00
18 | = | Longford | 79.54 | 0.00
19 | = | Tipperary | 77.98 | 0.00
20 | = | Down | 77.44 | 0.00
21 | = | Sligo | 74.13 | 0.00
22 | = | Westmeath | 72.05 | 0.00
23 | = | Offaly | 71.82 | 0.00
24 | = | Leitrim | 70.44 | 0.00
25 | = | Derry | 69.95 | 0.00
26 | = | Antrim | 65.86 | 0.00
27 | = | Louth | 63.26 | 0.00
28 | = | Waterford | 63.00 | 0.00
29 | = | Wexford | 61.28 | 0.00
30 | = | Limerick | 60.90 | 0.00
31 | = | Wicklow | 60.71 | 0.00
32 | = | New York | 55.07 | 0.00
33 | = | London | 51.85 | 0.00